Wages, exchange rates and competitiveness

Conclusion Wage growth in west Germany has, over the longer term and with few exceptions, been far more closely oriented towards macroeconomic productivity growth than in the majority of its competitor countries. Even after adjusting for exchange rate movements, it is evident that unit labour costs in west Germany have, in general, growth significantly less strongly and in most cases are lower in absolute terms than abroad. The fact that, in spite of this, Germany has repeatedly faced foreign trade problems, is due to the volatility of exchanges rates. The demand—in such cases seemingly self-evident, although usually not explicitly formulated—that collective wage bargainers ought to orient wage growth not only towards productivity growth but also towards exchange rates would mean standing the economy on its head, however. A rational alternative to this is to stabilise exchange rates or indeed their partial abolition, as is the aim of European Monetary Union. It would be irrational, on the other hand, to abolish the wage determination system which, on the whole, has proved its effectiveness in orienting average wage increases towards macroeconomic productivity growth.     

Pension reform,retirement, and life-cycle unemployment

This paper investigates the labor market impact of four often proposed policy measures for sustainable pensions: strengthening the tax benefit link, moving from wage to price indexation of benefits, lengthening calculation periods, and introducing more actuarial fairness in pension assessment. We consider the impact on three margins of aggregate labor supply, retirement behavior, job search, and hours worked. We provide some analytical results and use a computational model to demonstrate the economic impact of recent pension reform in Austria. Reducing the distortion in the retirement decision by introducing pension supplements and discounts conditional on the chosen retirement date promises the largest gains. We also find that the pension reform is far from sufficient to offset the fiscal implications of projected demographic change in Austria.     

Longevity risk, retirement savings, and financial innovation

Over the last couple of decades unprecedented increases in life expectancy have raised important concerns for retirement savings. We solve a life-cycle model with longevity risk, which can be hedged through endogenous saving and retirement decisions. We investigate the benefits of financial assets designed to hedge the shocks to survival probabilities. When longevity risk is calibrated to match forward-looking projections, those benefits are substantial. This lends support to the idea that such hedging should be pursued by defined benefit pension plans on behalf of their beneficiaries. Finally, we draw implications for optimal security design.     

Welfare to Work,Wages and Wage Growth*

This paper attempts to uncover the effects of a UK welfare‐to‐work programme on individual wage growth by exploiting an expansion to this welfare programme. The conventional wisdom is that such programmes trap recipients into low‐wage, low‐quality work – this comes from the simple argument that the ‘poverty trap’, which a wage subsidy for low‐income workers induces, reduces the benefits to investments, such as on‐the‐job training, and so reduces wage growth. In fact, a wage subsidy will also reduce the costs of, at least, general training because we would normally expect workers to pay for their own general training in the form of lower gross wages. So a wage subsidy is a way of sharing these costs with the taxpayer. Thus, the net effect on wage progression depends on whether it reduces costs by more or less than it reduces the benefits.     

Dynamic incentives and retirement

This paper examines multi-period compensation contracts when retirement is anticipated. Short-term contracts in long-term employment relationships are equivalent to a long-term renegotiation-proof contract. The dynamic of incentive rates is determined by (i) how and in which periods managerial effort affects the contractible performance measures; and by (ii) the time-series correlation of error terms in performance reports. The model explains why long-term investments can decrease while incentive rates increase as managers approach retirement. Earnings persistence is negatively associated to earnings-based incentive rates but, towards retirement, high earnings persistence implies increasing earnings-based incentive rates.     

秘密握手协议、生产率传递与工资的规模溢价

头部企业为什么能打破市场均衡而将生产率优势转化为工资租？理论分析表明,市场份额越大,雇主与雇员之间越易达成“秘密握手协议”,即通过联合来操纵劳动供给,以抬高人均生产率并进行分割。在这一过程中,员工分割比例虽有所下降,但不足以抵消人均生产率上升的影响,进而产生工资租。以上市公司为例,市场份额位于前10%的头部企业,人均生产率对工资的传递力度仅比市场份额位于中位值附近的企业低4%,但人均生产率却高出40%以上,直接导致了较高的工资优势。进一步借鉴Blanchard and Summers(1986)的方法进行检验,发现头部企业确实存在更明显的“合谋”迹象,程度比中位值附近的企业高出近一倍。“秘密握手协议”的本质是通过限制劳动力流动阻碍工资均等化,在扎实推进共同富裕的道路上,不仅要反产品市场垄断,也要防范不合理攫取生产率红利的行为。     

Trade costs, firms and productivity

This paper examines the response of U.S. manufacturing industries and plants to changes in trade costs using a unique new dataset on industry-level tariff and transportation rates. Our results lend support to recent heterogeneous-firm models of international trade that predict a reallocation of economic activity towards high-productivity firms as trade costs fall. We find that industries experiencing relatively large declines in trade costs exhibit relatively strong productivity growth. We also find that low-productivity plants in industries with falling trade costs are more likely to die; that relatively high-productivity non-exporters are more likely to start exporting in response to falling trade costs; and that existing exporters increase their shipments abroad as trade costs fall. Finally, we provide evidence of productivity growth within firms in response to decreases in industry-level trade costs.     

Dividend taxes,employment, and firm productivity

The paper examines the effect of dividend taxation on employment and productivity. I exploit a dividend tax cut of 10 percentage points for closely held private corporations in Sweden. Using data on all closely held Swedish firms with exact information on employees and their wages, I find that firms with limited internal funds increase productivity and wages relative to firms with sufficient internal funds whose investment decisions are less affected by dividend taxes. My findings indicate that dividend taxes constrain firms in investing efficiently. Lower taxes can result in higher capital and labor input and, thus, in higher productivity.     

Valuation, optimal asset allocation and retirement incentives of pension plans

We provide a framework in which we link the valuation and assetallocation policies of defined benefits plans with the lifetimemarginal productivity schedule of the worker and the pensionplan formula. In turn, we examine the retirement policies thatare implied by the primitives of the model and the value ofpension obligations. Our model provides an explicit valuationformula for a stylized defined benefits plan. The optimal assetallocation policies consist of the replicating portfolio independentof the pension liabilities. We show that the worker with retirewhen the ratio of pension benefits to current wages reachesa critical value which depends on the parameters of the pensionplan and the discount rate. Using numerical techniques we analyzethe feedback effect of retirement policies on the valuationof plans and on the asset allocation decisions.     

Information Content of Wages and Monetary Policy

We examine whether it is sufficient for central banks to observe and forecast nominal variables only. Analyzing the interplay of wage-setting unions and a central bank we show that although central banks may not gain more information by directly acquiring data about indicators of real shocks in the economy, such activities are nevertheless beneficial for central banks and yield lower social losses. Moreover, the extent of research activities by central banks should depend on the process of union formation.     

Effects of risk tolerance,financial literacy,and financial status on retirement planning

In this study, we investigate the effects of retirement planning on the economic and psychological factors of consumers using a large sample drawn from the 2012 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Specifically, we examine the combined impact of risk tolerance, financial literacy, savings, income, and debt on consumers’ retirement planning behavior. Risk tolerance, financial literacy, income, and savings are all found to have positive relationships with retirement planning, though debt has no significant relationship with retirement planning. Also, higher levels of risk tolerance weaken the relationship between savings and retirement planning. Implications of these findings for the literature and the financial planning industry are provided as well as directions for future research.

     

Forced retirement risk and portfolio choice

Current literature on the effect of labor income on portfolio choice overlooks that workers face a risk of being forced to retire before their planned retirement age. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, this paper finds that the forced retirement risk is both significant and highly correlated with stock market fluctuations. Using a life-cycle portfolio choice model, this paper shows that forced retirement risk makes labor income near retirement stock-like. Therefore, contrary to conventional wisdom, those who are still working but near retirement should have a lower share of risky assets in their financial portfolios than retirees do.     

Private retirement savings and mandatory annuitization

The present paper studies the growth, welfare, and efficiency consequences of tax-favored retirement accounts in a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic lifespan and labor income uncertainty. We focus on the implicit differential taxation of savings motives and the mandatory annuitization of withdrawals after retirement. The simulations performed for the German economy indicate that the differential taxation of savings motives has only modest efficiency effects but especially low-income households benefit. On the other hand, mandatory annuitization improves overall economic efficiency significantly by about 0.4% of aggregate resources, but future generations are hurt due to intergenerational income effects from reduced accidental bequest.     

The new retirement reality: calculating the true cost of retirement income adequacy

Recognizing that 401(k) plans are emerging as many employees' sole source of employer-sponsored retirement income, plan sponsors are increasingly adding paternalistic plan features to increase the amount--and effectiveness--of dollars invested in 401(k) accounts. The authors describe the results of a study they prepared for Hewitt Associates that assesses retirement income adequacy for individuals represented in a plan participant database of 1.8 million individuals. The study includes analysis of retirement income adequacy for the aggregate population as well as the results for different subgroups, reflecting factors such as whether individuals actively contribute; the impact of different levels of retiree medical coverage; and the presence of a defined benefit pension. Finally, the authors discuss how plan sponsors can bolster the adequacy of retirement income from 401(k) plans, depending on employer objectives.     

Using retirement planning software to assess Americans' preparedness for retirement: an update

This article is an update of a previous analysis of retirement planning software. In this updated analysis, the author uses data from the 1995 Survey of Consumer Finances along with statistical analysis of retirement software to examine whether consumers who follow the software retirement saving parameters are saving enough for retirement.     

IT use,productivity, and market power in banking

Information management is a core process in banking that can resolve information asymmetries and thereby help to mitigate competitive pressure. We test if the use of information technology (IT) contributes to bank output, and how IT-augmented bank productivity relates to differences in market power. Detailed bank-level information on the use of IT reveals a substantial upward bias in bank productivity estimates when ignoring banks’ IT expenditures. IT-augmented bank productivity correlates positively with Lerner markups. A mere increase in IT expenditures, however, reduces markups. Results hold across a range of bank output definitions and productivity estimation methods.     

Trend inflation, wage and price rigidities, and productivity growth

What are the steady-state implications of inflation in a general-equilibrium model with real per capita output growth and staggered nominal price and wage contracts? Surprisingly, a benchmark calibration implies an optimal inflation rate of -1.9 percent. The analysis also shows that trend inflation has important effects on the economy when combined with nominal contracts and real output growth. Steady-state output and welfare losses are quantitatively important even for low values of trend inflation. Further, nominal wage contracting is found to be quantitatively more important than nominal price contracting in generating the results. This conclusion does not arise from price dispersion per se, but from an effect of nominal output growth on the optimal markup of monopolistically competitive labour suppliers. Finally, accounting for productivity growth is found to be important for calculating the welfare costs of inflation. Indeed, the presence of 2 percent productivity growth increases the welfare costs of inflation in the benchmark specification by a factor of four relative to the no-growth case.     

Reserves and cash flows under stochastic retirement

Uncertain time of retirement and uncertain structure of retirement benefits are risk factors for life insurance companies. Nevertheless, classical life insurance models assume these are deterministic. In this paper, we include the risk from stochastic time of retirement and stochastic benefit structure in a classical finite-state Markov model for a life insurance contract. We include discontinuities in the distribution of the retirement time. First, we derive formulas for appropriate scaling of the benefits according to the time of retirement and discuss the link between the scaling and the guarantees provided. Stochastic retirement creates a need to rethink the construction of disability products for high ages and ways to handle this are discussed. We show how to calculate market reserves and how to use modified transition probabilities to calculate expected cash flows without significantly more complexity than in the traditional model. At last, we demonstrate the impact of stochastic retirement on market reserves and expected cash flow in numerical examples.     

Worries and plans as individuals approach retirement

The primary objective of an employment-based retirement plan is to provide a secure and adequate income for workers throughout retirement. In the defined contribution (DC) framework, asset accumulation is a means to the end, but not the end. Drawing retirement income from savings and paying for health care expenses in retirement are the two issues that concern individuals the most as they approach retirement. This article examines the attitudes of near-retirees regarding these risks and their plans for managing them. The author discusses how DC plan design can have a major impact on how individuals convert their retirement savings to retirement income; differences in survey responses between those who have consulted a financial advisor or other financial professional and those who have not; and the role of trust in implementing advice.