The Asian Currency Crises: Vulnerability, Contagion, or Unsustainability

The Asian currency crises have been introduced by many economists as evidence that almost any country could be vulnerable to speculative attacks and to contagion effects, even with apparently good economic fundamentals. These financial crises have also been interpreted by other economists as rational market reactions to the unsustainability of domestic macroeconomic policies or structural weaknesses. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the relative importance of macroeconomic unsustainability, financial vulnerability, and crisis contagion in a model that explains and predicts the Asian currency crises. Out-of-sample forecasts based on two-stage panel and logit regressions provide evidence of a pure contagion effect, which significantly worsened the crises. They also show that Indonesia was the only one of the six Asian nations examined (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand) that was in an unsustainable economic situation, and that the other five nations were only vulnerable to a currency crisis.     

金融生态与银行危机传导

本文运用生态学原理与方法,从金融生态的基本特征入手,分析了银行危机传导机制,并提出了防范银行危机传导的对策措施。     

理性政府下的货币危机及其传染

在理性政府的假设下,货币危机均衡具有多重性、唯一性以及传染性。在货币投机攻击成本和收益固定的模型中,经济基本面处于危机区时,基本面的不确定性并不能消除多重均衡;当货币投机攻击成本和收益都与经济基本面相关时,不管是静态模型还是动态模型,货币危机的均衡都是唯一的。而当其他国家的货币贬值时,本国维持固定汇率的收益和放弃固定汇率的信誉损失均下降,致使本国政府倾向于放弃固定汇率。     

Explaining Russia's Currency and Financial Crisis

The paper attempts to sketch a framework for understanding Russia's August 1998 financial and currency crises with reference to the main theories put forward so far. Our thesis is that, while not fitting easily into any pre-existing framework, the Russian crises shares many features of first-generation models inasmuch as it was largely due to inconsistencies among an overvalued peg, tight money, and an evident inability to address the fiscal deficit. In other terms, it derived from the incompatibility between standard IMF stabilisation policies and the difficulties that Russia was facing as a transition economy. On the other hand, by touching both currency markets and the banking sector, the Russian Episode shares also important features of the twin crises framework.The analysis considers the role of exchange rate movements and capital flows on Russia's rising vulnerability, fiscal problems and the building up of the public debt. It assesses the state of the Russian Banking sector and discusses the contagion effects of the Asian crisis and policy response. It shows how the core of the Russian crises lies in an unsound, IMF-backed, defence of the rouble, which in 1998 had become increasingly unsustainable.     

Turkish Currency Crisis of 2000–2001, Revisited

Turkey’s exchange rate based stabilization programme had collapsed within just 11 months of its implementation in the midst of a liquidity crunch in November 2000 caused by a reversal in the capital inflow. The onset of the stabilization programme created ample opportunities for speculative investors to make relatively safe one‐sided bets, and the initial success of the programme in bringing down interest rates implied substantial capital gains over securities obtained in 1999 and early stages of the programme. It was only natural that speculative investors would take the opportunity to realize these gains while the firm exchange rate commitment was still in place. The programme failed to deal with this contingency effectively, assuming that as long as it was implemented faithfully, long‐term investors would be forthcoming to takeover positions speculators would want to unload. That assumption proved disastrously wrong.     

货币危机的传染及防范研究

文章介绍了第一代货币危机模型和第二代货币危机模型的基本观点,在此基础上讨论了亚洲货币危机中货币危机的蔓延机理,并对我国货币危机的防范提出了几点建议。     

经济全球化、风险分担机制变迁与货币危机

金融体系风险分担机制包括银行中介的跨期风险分担机制和金融市场的横向风险分担机制.经济全球化条件下,资本跨国流动导致全球投资组合的优势凸现,银行资金流向金融市场,导致金融体系风险分担机制发生变迁,金融市场横向风险分担机制侵蚀银行中介跨期风险分担机制,而金融市场横向风险分担机制无法有效分担系统性风险,因此,金融体系更易受到外部系统性冲击的影响.增加了货币危机发生的概率.通过建立风险分担系数,使用88个国家的数据实证检验金融体系风险分担机制变迁对货币危机的影响,结果显示,金融体系风险分担机制变迁可以显著增加货币危机发生的概率.     

国内信贷、外汇储备与货币供给关系的研究——中国货币供给内生性的逻辑与实证

文章建立了国内信贷、外汇储备与货币供给之间关系的逻辑模型,以此讨论近年来中国货币供给的内生性。同时,利用中国2000年至2006年的月度数据建立了国内信贷、外汇储备与货币供给的误差修正模型,并对三变量进行了Granger因果关系的检验。结果表明:国内信贷、外汇储备与货币供给之间存在长期的稳定关系,国内信贷、外汇储备与货币供给之间存在双向的Granger因果关系。在实证分析的基础上,提出了相应的政策建议。     

本币升值冲击与银行业危机——基于货币错配视角的中国经验

本文通过资产负债表分析框架构建了本币升值通过银行的资产负债表渠道引起银行危机的模型.结论认为本币升值与银行及其客户存在相当多的净外币资产型货币错配的情况下,如果本币升值幅度很大,则可能引起银行部门的危机.实证检验表明在人民币升值背景下我国商业银行因债权型货币错配造成的净值损失与银行无清偿能力风险指数呈正相关关系,这表明货币错配风险对我国商业银行的稳定性有不利影响.     

金融危机中外汇储备与货币互换运用解析

面对2008年金融危机的严重冲击,新兴发展经济体纷纷动用外汇储备来积极应对,主要表现为两种模式:一种是以韩国为代表的大量运用外汇储备模式;另一种是以巴西、智利等为代表的新兴发展经济体有限运用外汇储备兼用货币贬值模式.两种模式实践均表明,外汇储备所具备的自我保障功能有限,应运用货币互换等新工具予以补充.     

货币错配与银行危机和货币危机

货币错配是新兴市场在经济全球化过程中所无法避免的问题,它具有净外币负债和净外币资产两种表现形式.在新兴市场中,只要其银行体系存在大规模的货币错配,不管表现为哪一种形式,都会增加其金融体系的脆弱性;而且在宏观或微观经济基本面恶化的情况下,可能引发银行危机甚至是货币危机.此外,当出现不利冲击时,银行体系中存在货币错配将会导致其资产和负债的期限错配进一步恶化.     

Housing Market Bubbles and the Currency Crisis: The Case of Thailand

This paper explains with a simple model the collapse of the housing market in Thailand before the 1997 economic crisis. It shows that successive periods of impressive growth of the economy created not only higher demands for housing, but also an increase in people's optimism about market conditions in the future. Both oversupply and bubbles were formed before the market finally crashed. The model explains some of these phenomena, and describes the nature of the bubbles. An ironic possibility is that a faster and more persistent growth of the economy tends to increase the vulnerability of the firms in the market.JEL Classification Numbers: F14, O11, O53.     

俄罗斯货币危机的成因、危害及启示

俄罗斯是新兴市场国家之一.近几年,俄罗斯政府加大改革开放力度,使俄罗斯经济有所恢复和好转.但2014年年底爆发的一场卢布大贬值的货币危机,却让俄罗斯政府几年来的努力付之东流,令世界震惊.目前俄罗斯物价上涨,出现抢购风潮,财富缩水,经济形势恶化,前景暗淡.本文在分析俄罗斯货币危机形成原因和危害的基础上,对其教训进行了深入探讨,并总结了一些对我国的启示,这将有利于我们趋利避害,更好地进行经济金融改革开放.     

欧元问世后国际储备货币竞争格局与欧元危机

欧元问世以来,国际储备货币竞争格局由美元垄断已经演化成美元与欧元的双头竞争。研究显示,造成欧元危机的真正原因是全球欧元储备份额的持续上升,它严重削弱了美元的全球霸权和美国的国家利益,欧元危机不是由债务国违约引发,而是由美国的评级机构调降这些国家的主权债务评级引发。本文认为,只要现存的国际储备货币体系仍然得以维持,欧元危机就不会导致欧元崩溃和欧元终结。     

Currency substitution,inflation, and welfare

Currency substitution affects the mapping between social welfare and inflation by altering the underlying money demand function and influencing interest rates. In order to explore the essence of this effect, I build a model with working capital under which foreign currency is substituted with the less liquid components of domestic money. The framework closely mimics the actual pattern of currency substitution across varying rates of inflation and enables the study of an additional channel that works through the impact of currency substitution on interest rates. It is found that there is a threshold inflation rate, which turns out to be 44% under baseline calibration, below which currency substitution decreases welfare and vice versa. A practical implication is that, at inflation rates lower (greater) than the threshold, the potential welfare gains from disinflation to a near-zero inflation rate are higher (lower) if there is currency substitution than otherwise.     

Discipline, Signaling, and Currency Boards

The paper models the choice between currency boards (CBs) and adjustable pegs (or managed floating). Countries adopting CBs have grown faster and inflated less on average than countries adopting other regimes. The explanation hinges on key features of CBs: policy discipline and inflation credibility. The authors find separating equilibria in which a weak government chooses a CB as a discipline device while a tough government chooses a standard peg for its policy flexibility. Paradoxically, the weak government can then outperform the tough government on average. In simulations performed, CBs welfare can exceed peg welfare even when unemployment persistence is strong.     

Dancing Spreads: Market Assessment of Contagion from the Crisis in the Euro Periphery based on Distress Dependence Analysis

The crisis in the eurozone periphery has so far affected markets substantially more than the size of the countries in the region would suggest. Data on direct exposures and simple correlations also fail to explain the cross-border impact of the crisis. Following Segoviano (2006), this paper uses distress dependence analysis to measure market assessment of contagion risks from Greece and Ireland to the rest of Europe during the peaks of the crises in these countries. The results provide insights to possible contagion risks through cross-border negative feedback loops between sovereigns and banking sectors in Europe that help explain the severe impact of the crisis.