Shipping investor sentiment and international stock return predictability

Stock return predictability by investor sentiment has been subject to constant updating, but reaching a decisive conclusion seems rather challenging as academic research relies heavily on US data. We provide fresh evidence on stock return predictability in an international setting and show that shipping investor sentiment is a common leading indicator for financial markets. We establish out-of-sample predictability and demonstrate that investor sentiment is also economically significant in providing utility gains to a mean-variance investor. Finally, we find evidence that the predictive power of sentiment works best when negative forecasts are also taken into account.     

Hedging jet fuel price risk: The case of U.S. passenger airlines

Jet fuel accounts for a large portion of passenger airlines' operating costs, and airlines' earnings are susceptible to swings in the price of jet fuel. This study uses daily data over the past two decades to determine the minimum variance hedge ratio for airlines wishing to hedge jet fuel price risk with futures, while also establishing the best cross hedging asset. Airlines hedging with futures would create the most effective hedge by using heating oil futures contracts with a 3-month maturity. We also find that beyond the 3-month veil, increased time to maturity makes heating oil less effective as a cross hedge proxy for jet fuel. However, both in-sample analysis and Monte Carlo simulation results with daily data show that none of the 4 cross hedge proxies, including heating oil, can be considered highly effective.     

Fuel price risk management using futures

The primary objective of this study is to investigate whether an ongoing policy of hedging jet fuel price risk using heating oil futures contracts reduces the volatility of quarterly pretax income of an average major airline in the US. The results indicate that, after controlling for trend, seasonality, and persistence of shocks, hedging has the potential to reduce the unexplained volatility of the average airline’s quarterly income by over 20%. Thus, the results suggest that the usefulness of hedging is not restricted to protecting weak airlines incapable of withstanding an increase in fuel prices. Also, airlines should not eschew hedging merely because of the possibility of incurring opportunity costs if fuel prices go down rather than up; hedging appears to pay off in the long run by providing a more stable earnings stream. Further, the results also point to the importance of selecting an appropriate futures contract and timing the hedging transactions properly.     

Tourism in ASEAN-5: A novel panel unit-root test for shocks persistence with gradual structural breaks and common factors

This study investigates whether shocks to tourist arrivals in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand (ASEAN-5) are permanent or transitory, given the frequent and severe external shocks experienced by the tourism industry. Using monthly data from 2000 to 2019, we employ a novel panel unit-root test that controls for cross-correlations, multiple gradual structural breaks, and other nonlinearities present in the data to assess the stationarity properties of tourist arrivals. Additionally, we apply a panel unit-root test that controls for cross-correlations and allows for abrupt structural changes for robustness. The empirical findings reveal that shocks to tourist arrivals in the ASEAN-5 countries exert persistent effects. Our results demonstrate nonstationarity within the series, illuminated by our careful consideration of both gradual and abrupt structural breaks. This finding underscores the necessity for policy interventions to mitigate the impact of adverse shocks on the tourism industry.     

Global financial crisis and stationarity of tourist arrivals: evidence from Mauritius

The purpose of this research note is to examine whether shocks such as the recent global financial crisis of 2007–2009 had a permanent or transitory effect on tourist arrivals in a developing country – Mauritius. Principally premised on a new nonlinear unit root test, the results show that tourist arrivals are stationary. The implication of these findings is that the shocks inclusive of those induced by the latest credit crunch had a temporary impact on tourism markets in Mauritius.     

Capacity retirement in the dry bulk market: A vessel based logit model

The paper investigates the effect of vessel specific and market variables on the probability of scrapping dry bulk ships. Using a dataset from 2012 to 2015, we find that the probability of scrapping increases with age, but that the relation between vessel size and scrapping probability varies across the different segments. In addition, while the relation between earnings and probability of scrapping ships is negative, bunker prices seem to affect only the scrapping rate of smaller tonnage. Scrapping probability also increases with an increase in interest rates, freight market volatility and scrap steel prices.     

Exogenous shocks and managerial preparedness: A study of U.S. airlines’ environmental scanning before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic

Managerial preparedness is a constant concern for firm stakeholders. This concern is exacerbated during times of immense stress brought about by exogenous shocks. In this paper, we analyze the preparedness of U.S. commercial airline management teams to the largest systematic exogenous shock to date, namely the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019 and 2020. We do this by underpinning the paper with theory on environmental scanning and managerial dysfunction and then documenting the signals and actions of management around multiple public health scares. These include the SARS outbreak, the Swine Flu outbreak and the COVID-19 outbreak. Our results, based off of corporate filings with the SEC, is that airline management had multiple “dry runs” before the COVID-19 outbreak that should have lead them to prepare for financially catastrophic scenarios such as the one observed in 2020. Instead, management teams failed to learn from these, and other, prior shocks. Instead, they focused on other, less serious threats while diffusing their financial buffers through dividends and share buybacks.     

Are tourist arrivals stationary? Evidence from BRIC countries

In this study, we attempted to analyse whether the shocks to tourist arrivals in BRIC countries are temporary or permanent, by analysing the stationary characteristics of the data in panel framework. We found that, for Brazil, Russia and India, tourist arrivals are stationary process, whereas for China it is non-stationary process. This implies that shocks to the tourism sector in Brazil, Russia and India have only temporary effect, whereas the shocks to China's tourism sector have permanent effects.     

Price and marginal cost effects of on-time performance: Evidence from the US airline industry

We examine the impact of flight delay on market power in the U.S. airline industry. Consistent with the literature, our estimation results confirm that flight delays are associated with negative consumer welfare effects. Most importantly, we find that poor on-time performance negatively impacts product markup—proxy for market power. Furthermore, we are able to decompose these markup effects into price and marginal cost effects and evidence suggests that the source of these negative markup effects is primarily driven by negative price responses.     

A systems-based approach to address unintended consequences of demand-driven transportation planning in national parks and public lands

In most cases, transportation planning in national parks and public lands might most appropriately be termed “demand-driven.” In this approach, rigorous analyses of park visitation, traffic, and parking data are used as a basis for transportation planning to accommodate current and projected future visitor demand, within financial constraints. Performance measures used to assess the quality of transportation systems in national parks are generally related to “moving people” efficiently. This approach is based on well-established principles for transportation planning in urban and rural communities. However, a demand-driven approach to transportation planning may not be suitable in national parks and public lands because it may enable levels of visitation that cause visitor crowding, resource impacts, and other unintended consequences. This paper introduces a more sustainable, systems-based transportation planning approach developed in the Rocky Mountain National Park (ROMO) to help the park operate its shuttle bus system efficiently and conveniently, and according to thresholds for visitor crowding and resource impacts at sites serviced by the shuttle system. The transportation planning approach developed in this study for ROMO is more suitable and sustainable for national parks and public lands than a demand-driven approach, and is readily adaptable to other locations. Correspondingly, the approach is now being applied in several other national parks and public lands recreation areas.     

Wealth effect from real estate and outbound travel demand: the Malaysian case

This study uses quarterly data from Malaysia (2000–2011) to examine the relationship between the wealth effect from real estate (WERE) and outbound tourism while controlling for other relevant outbound tourism determinants. By applying time-series cointegration regressions, the results show that WERE has a positive and significant impact on Malaysian outbound travel demand. Then, we exclude the departures for business purposes from the total departures in order to have a better understanding of the impact of WERE on the consumption of a luxury good like international travel for leisure purposes. Similarly, we find that WERE increases Malaysian international travels for leisure purposes. The findings provide some implications for Malaysian policy-makers as well as tourism and travel agents.     

The effect of code-sharing alliances on airline profitability

Code sharing and global alliances both have been increasingly adopted by airlines worldwide in recent years. A growing number of airlines, therefore, are embedded in networks of multilateral “coopetitive” (i.e., cooperative, but competitive) relationships that influence their product offering, pricing strategies, operating efficiency, market power, and their overall successes. There has been considerable research analyzing the benefits for airlines from joining global alliances, including bilateral code-sharing partnerships. However, the joint effect of code-sharing and global alliances on airline performance has not been fully investigated. In this paper, we study how the use of code-sharing strategies and their structural embeddedness into global alliances may impact airline performance. Using a unique dataset compiled from Flight Global and Airline Business's Annual Airline Alliance Report, the paper empirically investigates the joint benefits of code-sharing partnerships and global alliances on airline profitability. The results based on a group of 81 airlines during the 2007–2012 period show that the profit margin of an airline is positively associated with the number of code-sharing partners it has. Furthermore, the profit margin gains from code-sharing are greater when an airline has a higher proportion of its code-sharing partners in the same global alliance; i.e., allied code-sharing partners. Finally, we find no significant evidence that the percent of comprehensive code sharing partnerships to total partnerships has an impact on profit margin.     

Multimarket contact, alliance membership, and prices in international airline markets

This paper tests the mutual forbearance view in the context of airline alliances in the international air travel market. Using passenger booking and airfare data on transpacific routes, we find consistent evidence for the positive association between multimarket contact and airfares. Our results also suggest that multimarket contact between non-aligned airlines is associated with higher airfares, whereas multimarket contact between airlines in the same alliance has no additional upward impact on airfares. Moreover, it is shown that higher airfares tend to exist when airlines have greater multimarket contact on open-skies routes. In restrictive (non-liberal) international markets, however, multimarket contact may not affect airfare.     

Airline code-sharing and its effects on on-time performance

Although airline on-time performance has always received much attention, we are unaware of any empirical research that measures the on-time performance effects of domestic airline alliances. In this study, we empirically investigate the on-time performance effects of the largest domestic alliance—between Delta Air Lines, Northwest Airlines and Continental Airlines. We find evidence that code-sharing improves alliance partners' on-time performance and that the size of the codeshare effect on on-time performance depends on pre-alliance competition in a market, with the effect being larger in markets where the partners competed in prior to the alliance.     

A wavelet analysis for exploring the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and tourist footfalls in the USA

We attempt to establish the relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and international tourist footfalls in the USA. In the first stage, we investigate the influence of country-specific EPU and global EPU on tourist footfalls. Since, these two are overlapping in nature, in the second stage, we study the isolated influence of country-specific EPU on footfalls by eliminating the influence of global EPU and vice versa. We consider a study period spanning over January 1997 to April 2017. To capture the variations in the relationship at different time dimensions, we apply wavelet-based techniques. We observe the following: (a) the impact of policy uncertainty shock has a little immediate impact on tourist footfalls, (b) medium to long-run shocks persist due to occurrence of major undesirable economic events, and (c) the influence of domestic (country-specific) EPU is dominant in comparison to global EPU for the USA.     

The rationale behind and effects of Bunker Adjustment Factors

The Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) system was first introduced following the oil shocks of the 1970s. The underlying justification for such a system was that shipping lines operating in freight conferences could not otherwise adjust their prices promptly enough to counteract the devastating effect of bunker price increases. Thirty years after its imposition, BAF has always been a bone of contention between carriers and shippers. Ocean carriers contend that it is a necessary evil to reduce their exposure to volatile bunker price, while shippers argue that this risk should either be considered as a normal commercial venture, or dealt with in a more transparent way. When bunker surcharges began to climb in 2003, BAF disputes became one of the main obstacles to the dialog between both parties. To settle the dispute over BAF, the Europe Commission (EC) called for the submission on the issue of surcharges.The European Commission banned carrier conferences on October 17th 2008. The shipping lines now set their own independent BAF rates, which are closely monitored by the EC to ensure no collusion. The fluctuation in oil price in 2008 means that the BAF rates are now coming down, but there are still some wide variations in application. During this period of dramatic change in shipping environment, it has become important to provide a theoretical framework for analyzing the BAF. This paper focuses on examining the rationale behind and effects of BAF. A microeconomic model is made to explore the underlying mechanism of BAF. By examining the trade routes of Asia to Europe and Asia to North America during the period 2003-2008, this study finds the practice of BAF cushions an ocean carrier from the negative effects of bunker price fluctuations, and provides shipping lines a powerful tool to change the incentive structure facing carriers. Despite engineers showing that reducing the speed of vessels can economize fuel consumption evidence shows there has been little change by major shipping lines in their transit time and sailing schedules during the recent period of skyrocketing fuel price. It is apparent they use the BAF as the cushion against the effect of rising bunker prices.     

Does urban living influence baby boomers’ travel behavior?

We compare the travel behavior of urban versus suburban baby boomers in the Boston metropolitan area. Using propensity score matching to attempt to control for self-selection and data from two surveys implemented in 2008 and 2010, we find that the urban boomers tend to be less automobile-dependent than suburban baby boomers. Urban baby boomers also make more recreational non-motorized transport (NMT), social, utilitarian, and transit commute trips. Most of these differences seem to be primarily a result of the urban setting, not the particular preferences of boomers living in urban settings. We find very small self-selection effects on automobile commuting, recreational NMT, and utilitarian trips: 1–7% of observed influence. We also find some evidence that baby boomers’ preference for social activities tends to be mismatched to their environments – suburban boomers want more social opportunities than their settings enable. For public transport, we find a relatively large self-selection effect, 43% of observed influence, suggesting a transit-oriented boomer market segment exists.     

Spillover effects of the development constraints in London Heathrow Airport

In this article we assess the growth impact of London Heathrow’s development constraints on other airports in the UK. To test the relationship we use a two-stage methodology yielding an estimate of a congestion spillover effect. Our data are passenger traffic from 1990 to 2012 containing both intercontinental and European air traffic. For intercontinental air traffic, our results show high congestion spillover effect between Heathrow and Gatwick airports, and significant but lesser effect to Stansted airport. We also find significant congestion spillover effects from Heathrow to the spatially more distant Manchester and Birmingham airports, showing the extensive spatial impact of Heathrow’s development constraints. For European air traffic, controlling for low-cost air carrier growth, only two airports show significant congestion spillover effects: Gatwick and London City Airports. Illustrating that low-cost carriers do not operate from Heathrow, so its limitations cannot affect the predominant low-cost air traffic in other airports. The novel methodology we present in this paper can be applied to congestion research in general to assess regional and modal spills within networks.     

The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey

In the economic growth literature, the contribution of tourism to economic development has attracted great attention due to its significant roles as a source of foreign exchange earnings, creation of employment opportunities and an important source of public revenues in many countries. In this paper, we aim to analyse the empirical relationship between economic growth and tourism by employing different econometric techniques. First, we employed the Bound test approach developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001, Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326) in order to investigate the co-integration relationship between economic growth and tourism. Second, we used the Granger causality analysis for the 1998–2011 period and found evidence of a long-run uni-directional causality running from tourism to economic growth, but not vice versa. Our findings show that the Turkish case supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). Third, the autoregressive-distributed lag approach was employed in order to investigate the long-term and short-term static relationship between tourism and economic growth. The results show that tourism has a positive effect on gross domestic product and economic growth both in the long-term and short-term. Finally, the effect of tourism on economic growth was also investigated dynamically by employing the Kalman filter method. The findings of this method support the TLGH for Turkey.     

Competition and cooperation between high-speed rail and air transportation services in Europe

New high-speed rail (HSR) lines may have an enormous influence on the provision of air services. The attention has been devoted to competition between both transportation modes but in some cases HSR services may also have an intermodal complementary role with air transportation. By taking a supply oriented empirical analysis, we study the impact of HSR on air service frequencies and seats offered by airlines in large European countries. We emphasize the distinction between routes with and without a hub airport as an endpoint and we also examine the influence of the location of the HSR station. We generally find direct competition between HSR and airlines, but we also provide some evidence that HSR can provide feeding services to long haul air services in hub airports, particularly in hub airports with HRS stations.