Mobilizing non-conventional budgetary resources in Asia in the 21st century

The 21st century will be characterized by the curtailment of tax policy autonomy and high locational elasticities for economic activities. Resource mobilization tasks for Asian governments will therefore be far more complex. With respect to traditional taxes, base broadening and modernization of tax administration will have to be primary instruments of raising additional revenue rather than rate increases.The paper suggests that Asian countries will need to substantially enhance their capacity to benefit from innovative instruments of resource mobilization. These include public asset restructuring, treasury management, and revenue from creation of property rights, regulatory levies and more effective use of cost recovery and user charges. Resource mobilization and delivery of public services will have to be increasingly linked. An Asia wide tax forum to address common concerns, such as tax avoidance will need to be considered.     

Local government taxation: An analysis of administrative cost inefficiency

Local governments in Indonesia administer taxes inefficiently. The average cost of local tax administration as a percentage of revenue generated is estimated to be over 50%. There is, however, a wide variation in administrative inefficiency across local governments. The estimation of a stochastic cost frontier model suggests that administrative cost inefficiency increases significantly as fiscal transfers from the centre rise; the investigation also demonstrates that local governments with elected executives are no more administratively cost efficient than those with appointed heads. The simple and complex measures of cost inefficiency yield broadly similar results concerning the level and variation of inefficiency across local governments, but can offer significantly different estimates of the relative inefficiency of individual local governments. This poses a dilemma for the central government in monitoring and evaluating local government tax administration performance.     

Tariffs and collection costs

Conclusion Tariffs and export taxes may comprise part of a first-best tax package if their cost of collection is lower than alternative means of raising revenue. Using various proxies for relative collection costs, and holding constant standard indices of development, we find evidence of a significant relationship between a country’s usage of trade taxes and the relative cost of raising revenue. This relationship holds for a large sample of developed and developing countries, and when only developing countries are studied. This research suggests that more attention should be paid to the administrative costs of raising revenue, in addition to the usual focus on the allocative effects of taxes and tariffs. Further study of the nature of these costs should prove valuable in understanding the optimal mix of these policy instruments. It would be particularly valuable to have empirical evidence on what characteristics of a country influence the relative collection cost of raising revenue in alternative ways. This would enable researchers to more precisely identify the effect of relative collection costs on observed tax policy, and facilitate the formulation of tax policy by policymakers.     

Budget Structure and Pollution Control： A Cross-country Analysis and Implications for China

In the published literature, the differences in environmental performance across countries are typically explained using the Environmental Kuznets Curve. The Environmental Kuznets Curve states that pollution initially increases with economic growth. Once GDP per capita reaches a certain level, the relationship reverses. In the present paper, we provide an alternative hypothesis, where budget structure plays an important role in explaining the variations in pollution across the world.＂ the lower the business-related taxes as a share of total tax revenue, the higher the property tax in total tax revenue and the higher the ratio of public health expenditure in total expenditure, then the stronger the incentive of pollution control and the lower the pollution level. Our empirical findings reveal that the budget structure does have an important impact on pollution control. The policy implication of this research is that effective control of environmental pollution requires changes in tax structure and expenditure assignment. This research has important policy implications for China ＂s tax system reform and pollution control efforts.     

促进收入公平分配的税收政策研究

税收作为国家宏观调控的重要手段之一,应当在调节收入分配差距方面发挥积极作用。本文从"双主体"税制结构出发,通过分析引起收入差距的税收原因,总结现有税种调节作用的效果和不足,从流转税、个人所得税、财产税及社会保障税等几方面提出增强税收公平收入功能的政策建议。     

关于我国生态环境补偿机制的税收政策思考

我国的生态环境补偿机制开始于1980年代初,但时至今日,环境污染仍显严重,生态环境补偿机制仍存缺陷。而税收政策是有效的生态补偿手段,我国现行税制中,可纳入生态税制的主要有6个税种:资源税、消费税、城市维护建设税、车船使用税、城镇土地使用税和耕地占有税。本文在分析我国构建生态环境补偿机制现状和必要性的基础上,通过借鉴国外关于构建生态环境补偿机制税收政策的经验,来建立和完善我国的税收政策,以服务生态环境补偿机制。     

是土地供应量与房地产税赋提高了房价吗

自分税制实施后,“土地财政”成为我国地方政府获取收入以支撑财政支出的主要选择,而与此同时房价也在不断上涨。中央政府从民生角度要求地方政府对房价实施调控,地方政府则主要通过调整土地供给量和房地产税税赋来施加影响。土地供应量和税赋会影响供需双方从而影响房价,反过来房价又会影响税收收入及开发商对土地的需求,进而影响社会民生。本文对我国东、中、西部地区住房价格和土地供给量、房地产税税赋之间的关系进行分析,探讨各地区的住房价格上涨原因。通过构建住房价格和土地供给量、房地产税税赋之间的PVAR模型,利用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲分析和方差分解方法来透视地方政府行为对住房价格的影响。分析结果显示,地方政府行为和房价之间存在着联动关系,但在推动住房价格上涨的原因上存在着区域差异：在东部地区,土地供应量影响房价;中部地区,二者联合推动了房价上涨。而在西部地区,房地产税税赋对房价的影响明显。在政策建议上,对地价推动房价的地区要从丰富住房来源和数量入手,而税赋影响房价的地区则要完善相关税制改革。     

我国税收政策影响初次分配的实证分析

近年来,在我国经济保持持续高速增长的同时,我国居民的收入分配不平等现象也在加剧。税收政策历来都是各国调节收入分配的重要政策杠杆。根据1994～2009年我国的基尼系数、税收收入占GDP比重的时间序列数据,所建立的多元线性回归模型表明,我国现行的以间接税为主体的税制结构,整体上拉大了不同阶层的收入差距。增值税、营业税等税种与基尼系数呈正相关,个人所得税、财产税等直接税也由于征收规模过小、征管存在漏洞等原因,没有充分发挥出直接税应有的收入调节作用。     

Environmental and public finance aspects of the taxation of energy

This paper reviews potential applications of environmental taxesin the energy sector. Theoretical and practical arguments forusing environmental taxes are reviewed, and possible arrangementsoutlined for levying environmental taxes on energy. In contrastto most environmental taxes, taxes on energy have the potentialto raise revenues sufficient to alter the constraints and opportunitiesin fiscal policy. A carbon tax levied at a rate of £200per tonne could raise revenues equivalent to about 11 per centof total UK tax receipts, allowing income tax to be halved,or corporation tax abolished. Inappropriate use of the revenues,or their unnecessary dissipation, can greatly add to the costsof environmental policy. But, environmental taxes are unlikelyreduce the overall excess burden from taxation below the currentlevel, and the case for ecotaxes must thus primarily be madein terms of their environmental benefits.     

National and Regional Impacts of an Increase in Value-Added Tax: A CGE Analysis for South Africa

The South African National Treasury expected a revenue shortfall of R48.2 billion in 2017/18 and proposed tax policy measures to raise an additional R36 billion in 2018/19. A key component to raise the additional revenue was a 1% point increase in the VAT rate to 15% effective from 1 April 2018. The increase in the VAT rate was not welcomed as it would increase the cost of living, especially for the poor. We investigate the potential economy-wide and regional impacts of raising VAT and increasing public spending on education and health. We do this by developing and applying a multi-regional model of the South African economy that includes detailed tax and spending features. In this model, when we increase VAT, the impacts are driven by the direct shock to the model, accompanied by differences in regional economic activity. We find that effects on GDP vary between regions but are generally negative.     

The Distributional Effects of the Trump and Clinton Tax Proposals

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the Democratic and Republican candidates for President of the U.S. in 2016, proposed several changes in the federal tax code. Hillary Clinton would add a personal income tax surcharge of 4% on high annual incomes, limit the tax benefits of non-charitable deductions, set a minimum tax rate of 30% on taxpayers earning more than one million dollars a year, increase the tax rates on capital gains for taxpayers in the top tax bracket, and expand the base of the estate tax. Donald Trump would reduce the number of personal income tax rates, increase the standard personal deduction, cut all taxes on business income to no more than 15%, and abolish the inheritance tax. Using a tax calculator model, we estimate the static effects of these very different changes. Over a ten-year period, Clinton’s proposals would raise federal tax revenue by a total of $816 billion, an increase of 1.9% over projected baseline revenue, while Trump’s tax changes would lower tax revenue by $9.8 trillion. Clinton’s higher taxes would reduce incomes and revenue somewhat, while Trump’s tax cuts would potentially boost output substantially. Using an extended simulation model, we find that 86% of the incremental tax burden of Clinton’s tax increases would fall on those in the top tenth of the income distribution. Most other taxpayers would see only minor changes in their tax burdens, and the revenue and redistributive effects of her proposed changes are relatively modest. Meanwhile, 70% of Trump’s tax cuts would go to those in the top decile, and the effects are large, with gains of over $15,000 annually per person for this group, compared to gains of less than $500 per person for the poorest 40% of the population. On tax policy, the two candidates propose strikingly different policies.     

The double dividend from carbon regulations in Japan

Using a multisector dynamic CGE model, this paper examines the double dividend from carbon regulations in Japan. The model has 27 sectors and goods (eight goods generate carbon emissions) and covers 100 years (from 1995 to 2095). When carbon regulations are introduced, pre-existing taxes are reduced, keeping government's revenue constant. Our main findings are summarized as follows. First, the weak double dividend arises in all scenarios. This means that by using revenues from carbon tax to finance reductions in pre-existing distortionary taxes, one can achieve cost savings relative to the case where the tax revenues are returned to households in lump-sum fashion. Second, the strong double dividend does not arise from reductions in labor and consumption taxes, but it does from reductions in capital tax. The second result is attributable to the nature of the pre-existing tax system in Japan where capital taxes are more distortionary than labor and consumption taxes. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (3) (2007) 336–364.     

Allocating and taxing rights to state-owned minerals

Is Indonesia using the most effective possible strategies to derive revenue from its mineral resources? Auctions and work program bidding are the main ways of allocating mineral leases. In addition to the company taxes applied to all companies, governments can raise revenue from minerals owned by the state through auctions, royalties and rent taxes paid by private firms, and through dividends from state-owned firms. Indonesia uses work program bidding to allocate leases, and its production-sharing contracts are roughly equivalent to a rent tax at a high rate. This paper considers these options for raising revenues from mineral resources. It argues that efficiency and government revenue would both be increased if Indonesia relaxed direct controls on the operations of mining companies, and allocated leases by means of auctions, combined with a much lower rate of rent tax or, better still, a royalty.     

中国地方政府总体财力不均等程度及其分解：1997-2005

本文以1997年～2005年全国31省级财政数据为样本,运用基尼系数和GE指数分解法对省级财力差异进行了分解,结果发现：1997年至2005年间我国省际间财力差距没有明显收敛迹象,省际间财力差距一半以上来源于地区内部,并且呈扩大趋势;对省际间财力差异贡献最大的是本级财政收入,其中营业税和增值税贡献是主要因素;净转移支付解释了财力差异的约30％,其中税收返还和专项转移支付是造成省际间差异的主要原因,唯一起到均等化作用的是农村税费改革转移支付,旨在均衡地区间财力差距的一般性转移支付并没起到相应的作用;预算外收入的不平等贡献率大幅缩小,从边际效应看,增加净转移支付和预算外收入的规模,可以降低总体财力差距。     

税收政策对居民消费的“异质性”效应——基于规模结构双重视角下的实证分析

在全球经济形势愈加严峻及中央实施"双循环"新发展格局的背景下，充分发挥税收政策对居民消费的驱动作用具有重要意义。以往基于常参数计量经济模型的研究忽略了不同经济时期税收政策对居民消费的"异质性"效应。文章采用DAG递归预测的方差分解法，对于税收政策与居民消费间的动态因果关系进行识别，并构建带有随机波动率的时变参数因子扩展向量自回归模型，分别从税收规模和税制结构视角出发，探究税收总量、不同税系、不同税类以及不同税种对居民消费的时变效应。研究发现：（1）不同时期税收政策对居民消费的影响程度差异较大，经济萧条时期税收政策对居民消费的影响并不显著，危机后影响程度大幅提高并长期稳定在较高水平。（2）从税收规模来看，税收政策对居民消费产生极为显著的"非凯恩斯效应"。从税制结构来看，直接税的扩张对居民消费产生显著的促进效应；商品税及其内部消费税、增值税的扩张显著"挤出"消费，关税轻微"挤入"消费，近年来增值税的"挤出效应"大幅增强；个人所得税对消费的"挤入效应"显著强于企业所得税；财产税的总体扩张对消费产生"挤出效应"，但占比相对较高的房产税、契税和土地增值税并未"挤出"消费。因此，政策当局应适度降低商品税税负水平、逐步下调个人所得税税率、完善财产税制。     

Government budget,public-sector wages and capital taxes in a small open economy: A Hong Kong case

This paper examines the welfare implications of adjustments in public-sector wages and capital tax rates for a small open economy in a general equilibrium setting. The individually and jointly optimal wage and tax policies are derived and interpreted. Facing reductions in land sales and falls in foreign interest rates, a cut in public workers' pay is needed to make their wage comparable to the private sector and a hike in capital taxes is recommended for a budgetary consideration. Using a computable general equilibrium model for Hong Kong, we numerically evaluate the various optimal policies which not only confirm the theoretical results but also provide quantitative estimates of the optimal policy variables.     

Property Tax in Urban China

This paper examines China＇s urban housing sector and proposes that property, tax reform be undertaken. Specifically, China should significantly reduce taxes on transactions and introduce property taxes during the possession of houses. This will increase housing affordability as a result of lower transaction costs, reduce speculation because of the higher opportunity cost of holding vacant houses, stabilize the fiscal system by generating more sustainable tax revenue, and improve the efficiency and fairness of the property tax system according to the principles of ＂ability-to-pay＂ and ＂user pays＂.     

Decentralized Taxation and the Size of Government: Evidence from Swiss State and Local Governments

According to the Leviathan Model, fiscal federalism is a binding constraint on revenue‐maximizing government. The competitive pressure of fiscal federalism reduces public sector size, as compared to unitary states. This study uses panel data of Swiss cantons from 1980 to 1998 to empirically analyze the effect of different instruments on government revenue and its structure. Because of the considerable tax autonomy of sub‐national Swiss governments, it is possible to investigate different mechanisms by which fiscal federalism may influence government size. The results indicate that tax exporting has a revenue‐expanding effect; whereas, tax competition favors a smaller size of government. Fragmentation has no robust effect on the size of government revenue for Swiss cantons. The overall effect of revenue decentralization leads to fewer tax revenues but higher user charges. Thus, revenue decentralization favors a smaller size of government revenue and shifts government revenue from taxes to user charges.     

Papua New Guinea's tax performance, 1965-77

The PNG Goverment increased its tax ratio from 6.6 to 15% over the period, 1965–1977. Estimates of the buoyancy and the elasticity of the major taxes are also high compared to those obtained for other less developed countries. There are significant differences between the tax bouyancy and the tax elasticity to show that considerable efforts were made to collect more tax revenue through discretionary fiscal policies. However, a possible weakness exists in these discretionary policies, in that the collection of more revenue was brought about mainly by raising the tax rates of the existing major taxes and little attention was paid to the search for new tax bases.     

Japanese government debt and sustainability of fiscal policy

We construct quarterly series of the revenues, expenditures, and debt outstanding for Japan from 1980 to 2010, and analyze the sustainability of the fiscal policy. We pursue three approaches to examine the sustainability. First, we calculate the minimum tax rate that stabilizes the debt to GDP ratio given the future government expenditures. Using 2010 as the base year, we find that the government revenue to GDP ratio must rise permanently to 40–47% (from the current 33%) to stabilize the debt to GDP ratio. Second, we estimate the response of the primary surplus when the debt to GDP ratio increases. We allow the relationship to fluctuate between two “regimes” using a Markov switching model. In both regimes, the primary surplus to GDP ratio fails to respond positively to debt, which suggests the process is explosive. Finally, we estimate a fiscal policy function and a monetary policy function with Markov switching. We find that the fiscal policy is “active” (the tax revenues do not rise when the debt increases) and the monetary policy is “passive” (the interest rate does not react to the inflation rate sufficiently) in both regimes. These results suggest that the current fiscal situation for the Japanese government is not sustainable.