How entrenched managers beat earnings expectations before and after SOX

This study investigates the relationship between managerial entrenchment and how firms meet or beat earnings forecasts. It further examines whether this relationship changes before and after the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX). We find that, in the pre-SOX era, entrenched managers meet or exceed analyst forecasts more often than their unentrenched counterparts when analysts’ initial forecasts are high. This is mainly due to the drop in analysts’ consensus rather than earnings management. These results nearly disappear in the post-SOX era.     

In Pursuit of Greatness: CEO Narcissism,Entrepreneurial Orientation,and Firm Performance Variance

Building upon the perspective that narcissism is a leadership trait with both ‘bright’ and ‘dark’ sides, the present study examines the question of whether companies led by narcissistic CEOs exhibit higher levels of entrepreneurial orientation (EO). Moreover, this research examines whether EO partially explains why narcissistic CEO‐led firms experience greater variability in firm performance. Using survey data collected from 173 CEOs, and an archival measure of firm performance variance, we find support for our model. These findings offer an improved understanding of how CEO narcissism influences performance variance, and why the firms they lead may even, at times, be viewed as on a path to success. Study implications are discussed.     

Impact of CEO narcissism and hubris on corporate sustainability and firm performance

To explore the personality traits and corporate strategy of chief executive officers (CEOs), this study investigates how narcissistic and hubristic tendencies in CEOs affect the relationship between corporate sustainability practices (CSP) and firm performance. The primary purpose is to examine whether CEO narcissism and hubris can moderate the effect of corporate sustainability on firm performance. We investigate the influence of corporate sustainability on firm performance in three dimensions: economic, environmental, and social. The relationship between the mechanisms of supervision and agency theory is explored to assist investors in decision making. The results of this study show that compared to narcissistic CEOs, hubristic CEOs will further enhance the positive influence of CSP on corporate performance, especially in the environmental and social dimensions. This research strengthens the literature on CEO narcissism and hubris by demonstrating that CEO personality traits influence the relationship between corporate sustainability practices and firm performance.     

Interactive Reporting Bias Surrounding CEO Turnover†

This paper analyzes how CEO turnover affects successive CEOs' financial reporting decisions and the capital market price. I show that when an outgoing CEO (O) in period 1 is succeeded by an incoming CEO (N) in period 2, strategic interaction between O and N leads to interlinked earnings reports. Specifically, when the level of earnings reported by O is lower, N's reporting strategy is more likely to feature a downward reporting bias. Furthermore, by a comparison of the two-CEO setting with a setting with no CEO turnover, I show that with CEO turnover, (i) the period 2 earnings report is more sensitive to the private information of the CEO in control and less sensitive to the period 1 earnings report; (ii) the period 1 earnings report is more sensitive to the private information of the CEO in control; and (iii) the equilibrium stock price has the same sensitivities toward the associated risks, but is less sensitive to the periods 1 and 2 earnings reports. These results provide a novel explanation for managerial under-reporting bias based on strategic interaction between successive CEOs and shed light on the role of CEO turnover in earnings management behavior and capital market responses.     

Do Analysts Strategically Employ Cash Flow Forecast Revisions to Offset Negative Earnings Forecast Revisions?

We investigate whether analysts use cash flow forecasts to reduce the impact of earnings forecast revisions (EFRs) on market participants. In particular, we focus on conflict between an analyst's concurrent cash flow and earnings forecast revisions. We hypothesize and find that analysts are more likely to issue a positive cash flow forecast revision when they issue a negative earnings forecast revision concurrently, but not the opposite, particularly for Fortune 500 firms. Furthermore, our supplementary analyses suggest that (1) some analysts optimistically bias cash flow forecasts when they issue negative earnings forecast revisions; (2) the market pays less attention to the historical accuracy of analyst cash flow forecasts, so analysts have some latitude to present their cash flow forecasts in an optimistic way; and (3) the market reacts mainly to the direction, not the magnitude, of cash flow forecast revisions. Overall, these findings suggest that analysts may strategically use cash flow forecasts in conjunction with earnings forecasts to maintain good management relationships.     

Camouflaged Indicators of Earnings Management†

Abstract

We argue that, in response to increased scrutiny and greater attention to accruals versus sales, firms become more likely to engage in accrual conversion (AC) cash management aimed at aligning cash and accruals with earnings and sales (e.g. by factoring of receivables). In doing so, they reduce the statistical power of standard indicators of accrual-based earnings management – in effect, camouflaging their earnings management activity. This proposition is of interest because many influential papers on earnings management have utilized accrual-based indicators to reach their conclusions. Our results indicate that firms indeed became more likely to engage in AC cash management after the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX), and that this tendency was particularly pronounced among firms with strong incentives (or enhanced ability) to perform and hide earnings management. In particular, our findings suggest that the post-SOX decrease in standard measurements of accrual-based earnings management, identified in prior research, is partially attributable to firms’ increased engagement in AC cash management activity.     

CEO duality,information costs,and firm performance

This study investigates the effects of CEO duality on firm performance and the moderating effect of information costs on the relationship between CEO duality and firm performance in Taiwan. By analyzing listed companies during the period from 2000 to 2012, our empirical results show that a lack of evidence for the links between leadership style and firm performance; however, this relationship is associated with information costs estimated by analysts’ earnings forecasts. Specifically, we find that CEO duality has statistically significant negative impacts on firm performance when information costs are high. This result provides evidence for the coexistence of the agency hypothesis and stewardship hypothesis as determined by the extent of the information costs, and it tends to underscore the importance of corporate governance on the relationship between CEO duality and firm performance.     

股权质押影响分析师盈利预测吗？——基于上市公司与分析师互动行为的证据研究

基于上市公司与分析师互动的证据,从与分析师互动的频率和互动分析师的声誉两个维度出发,探索了控股股东股权质押影响分析师盈利预测质量的路径。研究发现：（1）控股股东股权质押降低了分析师盈利预测准确度,提高了盈利预测乐观度和盈利预测分歧度;（2）股权质押通过与分析师互动影响其盈利预测质量;（3）在剥离互动分析师声誉的影响后,股权质押的上市公司通过与分析师频繁地互动直接影响其盈利预测质量;（4）股权质押通过互动分析师声誉模式直接影响其盈利预测质量。异质性检验发现,股权质押控股股东持股比例高、股权质押率高、股权质押到期日临近、上市公司主动性强、基金公司重仓持股将进一步加剧股权质押对分析师盈利预测的影响。     

Keeping Their Cards Close to Their Chests: How Non‐Delegating CEOs Avoid Forced Career Ends

It is a common belief that CEOs must delegate to be successful. We hesitate to support this generalization and investigate how the distribution of responsibility within top management teams (TMTs) can influence the likelihood of a CEO’s dismissal. Consistent with an agency theory perspective, our results indicate that CEOs may choose not to delegate their responsibilities to other executive TMT members, so as to benefit from an increased information asymmetry vis‐à‐vis the board of directors. Taking the resource‐based view as a complementary theoretical perspective, we find that non‐delegating CEOs benefit from their greater firm‐specific knowledge, which the board of directors considers as a valuable resource that should be retained. Our work also demonstrates that a more intense CEO–TMT interaction weakens the relation between non‐delegation and the likelihood of CEO dismissal. In sum, our research shows that the CEO’s delegation decision does not necessarily lead to a competence distribution that is in the firm's best interest; rather, it reflects a complex interplay between the potentially opportunistic career interests of the CEO, the involvement of other TMT members and the board of directors. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Dissemination of Accruals Information,Role of Semi‐Annual Reporting,and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Evidence from Japan

Our study investigates the effects of dissemination of accounting accruals information on stock prices using Japanese annual reports as our sample. We conduct month‐by‐month detailed analyses of price adjustment behavior with a particular focus on revisions of analysts' earnings forecasts and changes in trading volume around the period of upcoming semi‐annual reports. We find that analysts' forecasts are often revised around this time, and analysts use this as auxiliary information. In addition, an accompanying re‐adjustment of abnormal returns and an increase in trading volume are observed. Our findings demonstrate that informational uncertainty initially triggered by the announcement of annual reports decreases as semi‐annual reports are disclosed and analysts change their earnings forecasts, and confirms the importance of semi‐annual reporting.     

海归人才有助于企业债务融资吗?——基于CEO权力视角的分析

本文以2008~2016年A股上市公司为样本,基于CEO权力视角,研究了CEO海外经历对企业债务融资成本的影响。研究发现,具备海外经历的CEO所在企业拥有更低的债务融资成本;当具有海外经历的CEO持有公司股权、在公司任职时间较长、具备较高的学历时,更能发挥对于公司债务融资成本的降低作用。本文的研究丰富了CEO海外经历对企业财务行为影响方面的研究,也为全面评估人才引进政策补充了经验证据。     

Does CEO gender matter for bank risk?

This paper addresses the relation between CEO gender and bank risk. We exploit a unique dataset of 365 Polish cooperative banks, 42% of which are run by female CEOs. We find that banks headed by female CEOs are less risky: they report higher capital adequacy and equity to assets ratios. Credit risk in female-led banks is not different from male-led banks, and therefore higher capital adequacy does not stem from lower asset quality and is likely to be linked to higher risk aversion of female CEOs. Our evidence supports the view that women are more risk averse bank CEOs than men. Our findings suggest that gender quotas in bank boards can contribute to reduce risk-taking behavior.     

Strategy,Valuation, and Forecast Accuracy: Evidence from Italian Strategic Plan Disclosures

Using a sample of 264 strategic plan presentations by Milan Stock Exchange firms during 2001–2012, we present evidence of both a security price reaction and an increase in the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts pursuant to plan disclosure. In the cross-section, the information content of the plan disclosures and the accuracy increase are incrementally associated with the extent of forward-looking narrative disclosures in the plan, after controlling for other disclosures within and outside the plan presentation and the fact that the firm has self-selected into the sample. Both quantitative and qualitative narrative disclosures are informative to investors and analysts. The results are driven by narrative disclosures about company strategy and action plans rather than about the business environment in which the company operates. Our study informs the current debate on the use of voluntary comprehensive, integrated, long-run-oriented strategic plan disclosure as a potential complement for disclosures such as quarterly earnings forecasts that have been described as an example of ‘short-termism’.     

The Corrosive Effect of Offshore Financial Centers on Multinational Firms’ Disclosure Strategy

Abstract

This study investigates whether U.S. multinational firms with subsidiaries located in offshore financial centers (OFCs) (i.e. offshore firms) are more likely to be opaque in their voluntary disclosure relative to U.S. multinationals without such subsidiaries (non-offshore firms). We use management earnings forecasts to capture corporate voluntary disclosure. Consistent with the opportunism view, but inconsistent with the efficiency argument, our results (including robustness checks) show that offshore firms are less likely to issue earnings forecasts, disclose forecasts less frequently, exhibit a stronger tendency to withhold bad news forecasts, and release less precise forecasts than non-offshore firms. Moreover, of the three distinct dimensions of OFCs’ institutional environment, namely, low taxation, lax regulation, and secrecy policy, each plays a role in negatively shaping firms’ disclosure strategy. Thus, OFCs’ institutional features exacerbate the opacity that plagues firms seeking to avoid taxes via their OFC subsidiaries. Our results are consistent with the notion that, beyond the scope of taxes, multinational firms’ use of OFCs has a corrosive effect on market information dynamics. Hence, OFCs have a much wider impact on the U.S. economy as well as other major economies than just tax avoidance or evasion.     

How to Measure Analyst Forecast Effort

Abstract

We introduce a new way to measure the forecast effort that analysts devote to their earnings forecasts by measuring the analyst's general effort for all covered firms. While the commonly applied effort measure is based on analyst behaviour for one firm, our measure considers analyst behaviour for all covered firms. Our general effort measure captures additional information about analyst effort and thus can identify accurate forecasts. We emphasise the importance of investigating analyst behaviour in a larger context and argue that analysts who generally devote substantial forecast effort are also likely to devote substantial effort to a specific firm, even if this effort might not be captured by a firm-specific measure. Empirical results reveal that analysts who devote higher general forecast effort issue more accurate forecasts. Additional investigations show that analysts' career prospects improve with higher general forecast effort. Our measure improves on existing methods as it has higher explanatory power regarding differences in forecast accuracy than the commonly applied effort measure. Additionally, it can address research questions that cannot be examined with a firm-specific measure. It provides a simple but comprehensive way to identify accurate analysts.     

Private conversation matters: Evidence from sell-side analyst reports after private meetings

Using a manually collected database of Shenzhen Stock Exchange listed firms from 2013 to 2015, we examine the key characteristics of firms’ private meetings and their effects on analysts’ reports. We show that the presence of managers, a smaller number of meeting participants, and discussing questions in more categories are associated with more accurate and less optimistic short-term forecasts during the hosting periods following the meeting. Our results suggest that private and small group conversations between managers and analysts can be significant information channels in these meetings. In particular, we show that the short-term earnings forecast is more accurate and less optimistic during hosting periods after these meetings in general, but recommendations are still biased upwardly. These results are robust regardless of whether the analyst attend meetings or whether the meeting is hold onsite, providing further evidence that private conversations with managers may be a more effective information channel than observing firms’ operations during site visits.     

CEO and Outside Director Equity Compensation: Substitutes or Complements for Management Earnings Forecasts?

Abstract

This study examines how the equity compensation of chief executive officers (CEO) and that of outside directors affect management earnings forecasts (MFs) and the relationship between these two positions in terms of compensation. Our evidence reveals that CEO (director) equity compensation is positively associated with MF likelihood, frequency, and accuracy when director (CEO) equity compensation is not high. However, an increase in director (CEO) equity compensation is not effective in improving disclosure quality when the level of CEO (director) equity compensation is already high. These results suggest that the two incentive mechanisms act as substitutes when both are intensively used in the context of MF disclosure.     

Research and Development,Uncertainty, and Analysts’ Forecasts: The Case of IAS 38

This study analyzes the consequences of the capitalization of development expenditures under IAS 38 on analysts’ earnings forecasts. We use unique hand‐collected data in a sample of highly research and development (R&D)‐intensive German‐listed firms over the period 2000–2007. We find that the capitalization of development costs is significantly associated with both higher individual analysts’ forecast errors and forecast dispersion. This suggests that the increasing complexity surrounding the capitalization of development costs negatively impacts forecast accuracy. However, for firms with high underlying environmental uncertainty, forecast errors are negatively associated with capitalized development expenditures. This indicates that the negative impact of increased complexity on forecast accuracy can be outweighed by the information contained in the signals from capitalized development costs when the underlying environmental uncertainty is high. The findings contribute to the ongoing controversial debate on the accounting for self‐generated intangible assets. Our results provide useful insights on the link between capitalization of development costs, environmental uncertainty, and analysts’ forecasts for accounting academics and practitioners alike.     

The impact of regulation fair disclosure on earnings management and analyst forecast bias

Regulation Fair Disclosure (FD) has changed the information transfer process in the US securities market. We examine the impact that regulation FD has had on earnings management and analyst forecast bias. First, we examine the accuracy of financial analysts' earnings forecasts in the post-FD period. We find that analysts have become less accurate in forecasting earnings in the post-FD period and tend to overestimate earnings more relative to the pre-FD period. Second, we examine the level of earnings management after the passage of regulation FD and we find that the level of earnings management did not change after the implementation of regulation FD     

Analysts' Earnings Forecasts and the Value Relevance of 20-F Reconciliations from non-U.S. to U.S. GAAP

This study extends existing research into the value relevance of reconciliations to U.S. GAAP by examining the role of analysts' earnings forecasts in explaining potential market reactions to the earnings reconciliation. One possible reason why the evidence on the value relevance of the earnings reconciliation is weak is that earnings are forecast by analysts. Their forecasts may pre-empt some of the information content of the earnings reconciliation disclosures. Our findings indicate that analysts' forecasts are value relevant and that they play a pre-emptive role for some firms. For others, however, the earnings reconciliation has information content that is not pre-empted by analysts' forecasts.