我国出口退税政策的减排效果评估——基于钢铁行业的经验分析

中国是世界第一出口大国,商品出口贸易中隐含了大量的碳排放。出口退税政策作为一项促进经济增长和改善贸易结构的措施,是否对节能减排也有一定的作用?本文以钢铁行业产品出口为例,采用倍差法对我国实施的出口退税率调整政策的减排效果进行评估,结果发现,出口退税率的调整能显著地降低出口隐含碳的增长率,相比未调低出口退税率的产品而言,调低出口退税率的商品出口隐含碳增长率降低39%,因而出口退税政策能够显著影响出口隐含碳排放,从而可以把出口退税政策作为一项节能减排的重要政策工具。     

出口退税率调整的政策效应探析——基于粤东传统大宗商品出口的研究

文章简述了近年来我国出口退税政策频繁调整的情况,以粤东为例就其对我国传统大宗商品出口的影响进行分析,指出出口退税政策调整的正负效应,提出须有其它相关政策措施的配合调整才能更好地发展我国外贸和调整产业结构的建议。     

The employment and wage effects of export VAT rebates: evidence from China

Review of World Economics - This paper studies the employment and wage effects of VAT rebates to exporters with comprehensive firm-product-level data of China. It is found that the adjustments in...     

产出波动、需求转移与出口退税的出口激励效果——一个基于中国出口面板数据的研究

本文在出口竞争模型基础上分析了出口退税、产出波动和需求转移对中国出口的影响,结果发现,出口退税对出口具有显著的促进作用,而这种出口的激励效果在不同的时期有显著的差异。其中,危机时期出口退税的出口激励效果高于承平时期的出口激励效果。这一结果表明,适时提高出口退税率是危机时期我国刺激出口的一条行之有效的措施。     

Does environmental regulation affect firm exports? Evidence from wastewater discharge standard in China

This paper examines the effect of water pollution regulation on polluters' exporting decisions and exporting structure. Using a detailed firm-by-product level dataset, we employ a difference-in-differenceds model to identify the causal relationship between environmental regulation and firms' exporting performance. We find that stringent environmental regulation decreases both export likelihood and export values. Moreover, we examine the channels that the environmental regulation could affect firms' exporting performance through entry-exit of the export market, price transmission, adjustments of exporting destinations, and product switch. The tightening wastewater discharge standard appears to deter the new polluters rather than incumbents to enter the export market. Productive polluters could gain the relative larger export market by lowering down exporting prices and selling more products overseas. In response to this water pollution regulation, polluters would make substantial adjustments in their exporting destinations, exporting products, and exports value via different trade modes.     

The Impact of Korea's Exchange Rate Volatility on Korean Trade

This study uses a GARCH-in-mean model to analyse the impact of Korea's nominal exchange rate volatility on exports and export prices over the current flexible-rate period. The volatility of Korea's won increases the exchange risk of exporters and leads to changes in export volume and price. This paper provides some evidence that nominal exchange rate volatility has had a statistically significant impact on real exports over the current floating-rate period. We show that persistence-in-variance of exchange rates affects the market for exports in Korea. An important result is that the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade variables is shown to be significant. We find that the GARCH conditional variance has a statistically significant impact on the reduced form equations. The magnitude of the effect is generally stronger for export quantities than prices. This result is contradicts that of Kroner and Lastrapes's analysis. This is explained by the fact that Korean exporters choose the strategy of pricing to maintain market share instead of adjusting export prices to reflect exchange rate changes, even when this cuts profit margins.     

The Impact of Korea's Exchange Rate Volatility on Korean Trade

This study uses a GARCH-in-mean model to analyse the impact of Korea's nominal exchange rate volatility on exports and export prices over the current flexible-rate period. The volatility of Korea's won increases the exchange risk of exporters and leads to changes in export volume and price. This paper provides some evidence that nominal exchange rate volatility has had a statistically significant impact on real exports over the current floating-rate period. We show that persistence-in-variance of exchange rates affects the market for exports in Korea. An important result is that the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade variables is shown to be significant. We find that the GARCH conditional variance has a statistically significant impact on the reduced form equations. The magnitude of the effect is generally stronger for export quantities than prices. This result is contradicts that of Kroner and Lastrapes's analysis. This is explained by the fact that Korean exporters choose the strategy of pricing to maintain market share instead of adjusting export prices to reflect exchange rate changes, even when this cuts profit margins.     

Shipment frequency of exporters and demand uncertainty

This paper examines how exporting firms adapt to the uncertainty stemming from demand volatility. By using monthly customs data from France, we decompose exports into different extensive and intensive margins including two novel margins: the number of months the firms exported (frequency) and the average export value per month. We establish four empirical patterns. First, firms export less to markets with higher demand volatility. Second, this effect is mainly explained by the frequency margin. Third, volatility affects the frequency margin through two channels: indirectly through lower trade volume and directly through logistics re-optimization. In particular, our results suggest that firms send less frequent, larger shipments to more uncertain markets conditional on total exports. Fourth, the effect of demand volatility is magnified on markets with longer time-to-ship. We propose that these observations are in line with simple stochastic inventory management approaches.     

Are export tax rebates patronage for Chinese firms? An analysis of productivity

This paper examines the nexus between export tax rebates and productivity using Chinese firm-level data from 2000 to 2007. The empirical findings indicate that a one percentage point decrease in export tax rebate rates increases the total factor productivity (TFP) of a firm by about 0.1 percentage points. We explore the possible mechanisms that explain this nexus and attribute it to the allocation effect of export tax rebate policy; that is, export tax rebates prevent low-productivity firms from exiting the market and further reallocate resources and economic activities to them. In addition, a decrease in rebate rates significantly encourages the TFP growth of surviving firms and leads to an increase in aggregate TFP. Specifically, throughout 2000–07, the declining rebate rates accounted for 5.23% of the rise in the aggregate TFP, and the between-firm effect was 3.85%, which is much larger than the within effect.     

对我国出口退税政策调整的思考

出口退税政策作为我国鼓励出口的一项重要措施,自1985年恢复实施以来,由于不同政策目的的需要经历了一系列的调整。本文通过对我国出口退税政策调整过程的论述,分析了我国出口退税政策存在的问题,从而提出了完善我国出口退税政策的对策建议。     

China's import duty drawback and VAT rebate policies: A general equilibrium analysis

China's duty drawbacks and value-added tax rebates play important roles in promoting exports. Simulations from a CGE model, characterized by a dual production (domestic sales and export processing) and dual import structure (imports used in export processing and for other purposes), confirm our theoretical results on China's exports that (a) such policies are generally export promoting; (b) a small part of the export expansion comes at the expense of a slight decline of the domestic activity through factor re-allocation and input substitution, whereas a larger portion of the expansion is attributed to cheaper access to foreign inputs; (c) export processors use more imported inputs and less domestic inputs; and (d) export intensive sectors are positively affected by these policies, whereas traditional agriculture sector is impacted adversely. These policies generate welfare gains for China.     

Trade policy and industrial policy in China: What motivates public authorities to apply restrictions on exports?

This paper investigates the motives behind China's fiscal policy targeting exports. It relies on detailed data at the product level over the period 2002–2012. We analyze two major export fiscal instruments: export tax and export VAT rebate. Our results suggest that while pursuing many objectives simultaneously, Chinese policy used the two instruments in a complementary way with the aim of achieving their industrial policy and strategic objectives. Some are officially stated objectives such as promoting technology or environmental protection, while others do not appear in official documents, such as subsidizing downstream sectors. We also observed that China managed these instruments dynamically to address temporary shocks, for example to temper rising food price or to support strategic sectors sensitive to price competitiveness in the middle of the financial crisis.     

Do High-technology Exports Cause More Technology Spillover in China？

The volume of China’s high-technology exports has grown sharply since the implementation of its export promotion strategy "Revitalizing Trade through Science and Technology" in 1999.This paper investigates whether technology spillover effects are greater for hightechnology exports than for primary manufactured goods exports.We present a generalized multi-sector spillover model to identify both between spillover effects from exports towards non-exporters and within-spillover effects among export sectors.Using panel data for 31 provinces in China over the period from 1998 to 2005,we find that although high-technology export sectors have higher productivity compared with other sectors,this productivity advantage does not lead to technology spillover to both domestic sectors and other export sectors,and export technology spillover mainly derives from traditional export sectors rather than high-technology export sectors.As such findings can be largely attributed to the fact that China’s high-technology exports depend significantly on processing trade by foreign- invested firms,policy implications are discussed in relation to how to best promote the role of China’s high-technology exports during economic expansion.     

Multilateral Export Decompositions

We analyze exports along five margins to observe the changes of newly exported products, products removed from the export market, and continuously traded products to new, old, and exited destinations on export growth. We find export shares differ between developing and developed countries: 1) entering and exiting products are an important source of export value, but more so for developing than developed countries, 2) that continuously exported products to new destinations are a more important source of export value for developing than developed countries, 3) that though the removal of exiting products has a large impact on export value, the removal of products from one destination that continue to be exported elsewhere results in little loss to total export value, and 4) that larger and richer exporting countries have less opportunity to increase exports from new destinations than smaller and poorer exporting countries. Understanding the change in these margins across different types of countries may be important for formulating trade agreements and targeting of new trade partners.     

Deficit versus balanced budget financing of ICT Infrastructure and Export Quality

This paper examines whether and how provision of better quality of ICT infrastructure by the government incentivizes quality upgrading of exports of IT-enabled services of a small dependent economy that displays a diversified export basket. The central idea of the analysis is that infrastructure development has both benefits and costs, and thus may not necessarily improve quality of service exports.Method of financing the ICT infrastructure is also important. We show that if the skill-productivity augmenting effect of better quality of ICT dominates its adverse wage-cost effect, then the quality of the export of ITeS will be upgraded if the government switches from deficit financing to balanced budget financing (through an input tariff) of its expenditure on ICT development. An exogenous increase in expenditure on ICT development raises the quality of service exports regardless of how it is financed, though raises it by a larger magnitude when financed through an increase in the input tariff. Thus, when the primary objective is to incentivize upgrading of quality of exports, balanced budget financing of infrastructure development seems to be the more preferred policy.     

The impact of destination tariffs on China’s exports: Country,firm, and product perspectives

Based on multi-product heterogeneous firm trade theory, we combine China's customs data with the World Integrated Trade Solution’s (WITS) tariff data from 2002 to 2013 and analyze the impact of destination tariffs on China's exports at the country, firm, and product levels. The results reveal that tariffs had a negative effect on country-level exports and their extensive margins. After controlling for the inter-firm composition effect, tariffs had negative effects on firm-level exports and their intensive margins, but positive effects on their extensive margins. After also controlling for the within-firm export composition effect, tariffs had a negative impact on the exports of core products; however, the negative impact diminished as the core grade and technological content of the products increased. Using these elasticities to analyze Sino-U.S. trade frictions, we determine that the additional U.S. tariffs reduced China's exports of high-tech products more than its medium- and low-tech products.     

Explaining Export Duration in Kenya

This study establishes the hazard rate of exports from Kenya and identifies factors that explain the duration of exports using a discrete-time random effects logit regression model. A difference-in-differences estimator is used to assess the effects of AGOA. Export data between Kenya and 176 partners over 21 years (1995–2016) is used. We find that first-year survival rate is 39%. The median duration of Kenya’s exports is 1 year. AGOA enhances export survival, especially for apparels. COMESA also increases export survival but EAC has a dampening effect, even in SSA region. Differentiated products unlike capital-intensive products improve export survival.     

How the Internet Promotes China's Exports: A Firm‐level Perspective

The development of information and communications technology (ICT), particularly the Internet, has reduced trade costs. However, it remains unclear whether these reduced costs are reflected in the “extensive margins” of firms’ exports (which refer to the probability of firms exporting) or the “intensive margins” (which refer to the value of firms’ export). To test this, we used the concepts of information cost and binary margins, an augmented trade model of firm heterogeneity, a two‐stage Heckman estimation, and data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey of Chinese firms in 2012. The results revealed that reduced trade costs from the use of ICT were positively related to extensive margins but that the connection with intensive margins was not significant. The results lead to the conclusion that reduced information costs related to a firm's exporting behavior were primarily reflected in variable trade costs. This study offers theoretical and empirical evidence for China's policies towards the Internet, which are relevant for the export of manufactured goods. The government should encourage the use of ICT to enhance firms’ export opportunities while facing current trade policy uncertainty.     

Gains from Indonesian Export Growth: Do Linkages Matter?

Intersectoral input linkages are often used as a criterion for assessing the developmental impact of export-led industrialisation, and for determining export development policy priorities. The authors argue, in the light of recent Indonesian experience, that this closed-economy planning tool is fundamentally flawed as a criterion for evaluating policy and performance in an export-oriented growth strategy For the period 1985 to 1995 we examine the relationship of sectoral input linkages both to the employment impact of Indonesian manufactured exports and to the contribution of these exports to net foreign exchange earnings. We find that linkages have no significant correlation—and indeed sometimes a negative one—with employment and net export growth     

How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect the Export Decisions of Firms in Ghana?

Abstract: Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been identified to promote exports of host countries by augmenting domestic capital for exports, helping to transfer technology and new products for exports, facilitating access to new and large foreign markets, providing training for the local workforce, and upgrading technical and management skills. However, little is known on the role of FDI in the export behaviour of firms in developing countries. The main questions raised in this study are: how does FDI affect the export decisions of firms? How does FDI affect export performance of firms? This study examined the export‐decision and export performance within the Ghanaian manufacturing sector on a panel of plants from 1991 to 2002. Using a probit model, the results show that FDI has a positive effect on firms' decision to export. The random effect results also reveal a positive relationship between FDI and export performance. Clearly, the results of this study indicate that FDI is very relevant in influencing the export decisions and export performance of Ghanaian firms. The findings have significant implications for policy in terms of promoting initiatives to encourage more FDI inflows in the country.