How does HFT activity impact market volatility and the bid-ask spread after an exogenous shock? An empirical analysis on S&P 500 ETF

In this paper, we empirically analyse infra-second datasets of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (specifically, the ETF of the S&P 500 exchanged on BATS, named SPY.Z) in order to explain how high-frequency trading (HFT) activities (aggressive and passive) impact market volatility and the bid-ask spread before and after an exogenous shock (i.e., the 2016 US presidential election). Using SPDR S&P 500 ETF datasets as a proxy for the market on regular volume trading days (November 3, 2016) and on high-volume trading days (November 9, 2016), we show that HFT, on average, has a disturbing action mainly on regular volume trading days, whereas on high-volume trading days, it appears to have a stabilizing effect by balancing both the volatility and bid-ask spread. That is, HFT as a whole has a more neutral impact on the market’s volatility and bid-ask spread than the single aggressive and passive components. In fact, aggressive HFT has a consistent negative effect that increases, on average, both the volatility and bid-ask spread, whereas passive HFT displays a positive effect that decreases, on average, the volatility and bid-ask spread.     

The effects of listing changes between NASDAQ market segments

This study analyzes the effects of listing changes within NASDAQ market segments during the period of 1998 to 2005. We find that firms phased up from the NASDAQ Small Capital Market (SmallCap) to the NASDAQ National Market (NNM) experienced significant declines in bid-ask spreads, the volatility of returns, and the probability of informed trading, and firms that phased down from NNM to the SmallCap experienced decreases in bid-ask spreads, but insignificant changes in the volatility of returns and the probability of informed trading. We also estimate simultaneous equations models of bid-ask spreads, return volatility, and trading volume for both groups of firms. The results confirm that improved liquidity is associated with the listing changes for the phase-up firms. However, the simultaneous equations model suggests that the decreases in bid-ask spreads for the phase-down firms are caused by the changes in share prices.     

Large price movements and short-lived changes in spreads,volume, and selling pressure

In this paper we examine changes in dollar and relative bid-ask spreads of stocks following large price movements. We investigate large increases and decreases separately and link our results to current market microstructure theories on trading activities and spreads. We also look at changes in volume and selling pressure to interpret the changes in trading activity. Our results show that the market reacts differently to price increases and decreases. For large price decreases, trading increases on the sell side even when spreads have increased. For large price increases, trading increases on the buy side during a period of higher spreads. However, the increases in dollar spreads and price pressure are most pronounced at the end of trading day. Our results are consistent with microstructure models that link trading activities and costs to the level of asymmetric information.     

The impact of individual investor trading on information asymmetry in the Korean stock market

This paper examines the impact of individual investor trading on information asymmetry in the market. In particular, we examine the relationship between the trading volume by individual investors and the corresponding bid-ask spread in the Korean stock market, where the majority of the trading activity is driven by individual investors and therefore information asymmetry can be evident. We find that high trading activity by individual investors increases the bid-ask spread in a short investment horizon, suggesting that individual investors, as uninformed and unsophisticated traders, amplify the degree of information asymmetry in the market through trading.     

Arbitrage, linear programming and martingales¶in securities markets with bid-ask spreads

In a general, finite-dimensional securities market model with bid-ask spreads, we characterize absence of arbitrage opportunities both by linear programming and in terms of martingales. We first show that absence of arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of solutions to the linear programming problems that compute the minimum costs of super-replicating the feasible future cashflows. Via duality, we show that absence of arbitrage is also equivalent to the existence of underlying frictionless (UF) state-prices. We then show how to transform the UF state-prices into state-price densities, and use them to characterize absence of arbitrage opportunities in terms of existence of a securities market with zero bid-ask spreads whose price process lies inside the bid-ask spread. Finally, we argue that our results extend those of Naik (1995) and Jouini and Kallal (1995) to the case of intermediate dividend payments and positive bid-ask spreads on all assets.     

Link-save trading

Transaction costs involved while trading several assets may be described using bid-ask spread of the asset prices. We assume that the prices of several assets may be linked, so that transactions involving several assets have prices that are not necessarily equal to the sums of (bid or ask) prices of the individual assets. The family of possible price combinations forms a convex (random) set which changes in time and is called the set-valued price process. It is shown that the necessary and sufficient condition for no-arbitrage is the existence of a martingale selection, i.e. a martingale that takes values in the set-valued price process. Examples and applications to option pricing are discussed.     

Trading cost expectations: Evidence from S&P 500 index replacement stock announcements

This paper tests the effect on stock value of an expected change in future trading costs. The capitalized value of a reduction in trading costs is hypothesized to increase the stock value, a trading cost effect. Improved liquidity reduces trading costs. Inclusion as an S&P 500 Index replacement stock is an event hypothesized to increase liquidity. We use 114 observations between January 1, 1983 and October 12, 1989 of stocks added to the Index as replacements for stocks removed. The abnormal return of each stock is regressed against the ratio of the bidask spread to the price of the stock, the change in trading volume of the stock, and the open interest in the Index futures contracts at the close of the month prior to the replacement announcement. We find that the positive abnormal returns for replacement stocks are related to increased daily trading volume after inclusion in the Index. Further, the trading cost effect is proportional to percentage bid-ask spreads prior to inclusion. The trading cost effect increases as trading in derivatives of the Index increases. The volume and stock price changes after replacement are not transitory, indicating an improvement in liquidity. Three alternate hypotheses suggested in prior research to explain the abnormal returns for replacement stocks are tested. Testing each of the three models previously considered: price pressure, inelastic demand curves, and information, we find that none can be accepted with statistical confidence. The abnormal returns of Index replacement stocks are consistent with rational pricing of an anticipated reduction in future transaction costs. This anticipated reduction is capitalized in the value of the stock at the time of the replacement announcement. These results are consistent with a trading cost effect.     

Empirical evidence on the effects of delisting from the National Market System

This study analyzes empirical evidence related to changes in market value and liquidity characteristics of stocks, which are delisted from the National Market System (NMS) due to an elevation of NMS listing standards. Our results are thus relatively independent of the financial conditions of the firms prior to delisting. We document significant increase in bid-ask spreads and decrease in trading volume after delisting. A significant negative stock price reaction around the delisting announcement period is also observed. Both sets of findings suggest that delisting from NMS increases a firm’s cost of capital by adversely affecting the liquidity of its stock. (JEL: G14)     

How do “gatekeepers” affect credit risk?

This study investigates the relationship between auditor tenure and credit default swap (CDS) spreads of U.S. firms based on quantile regression. After allowing for common determinants of CDS spreads, auditor tenure exerts both statistically and economically significant additional impacts on the CDS market. Furthermore, there are differential effects of common CDS spread determinants and auditor tenure. While common determinants of CDS spreads (e.g., leverage, volatility, risk free rate, credit ratings, and earnings) have monotonically increasing impacts when CDS spreads (and their changes) are increasingly higher, auditor tenure primarily has the impact when CDS spreads are of low or median levels for less risky firms.     

Changes in the liquidity of closed-end country funds after the introduction of World Equity Benchmarks

In 1996, the first exchange-traded funds (ETFs) designed to track a subset of the Morgan Stanley Capital International country indices were approved under the name World Equity Benchmarks (acronym “WEBS”™). We examine the impact of early WEBS-trading on the liquidity of corresponding closed-end country funds (CECFs), previously one of the main avenues for retail investors to achieve country-specific equity exposure. We document a decline in both the trading volume and the trading frequency for CECFs, suggesting that some investors migrate to WEBS. At the same time, the market depth for CECFs increases and the bid-ask spread for CECFs decreases following the introduction of WEBS. Our results support the hypothesis that despite the decline in volume and trading frequency, the liquidity of CECFs is favorably affected by the advent of WEBS.     

Foreign equity flows: Boon or bane to the liquidity of Malaysian stock market?

This paper examines the impact of gross foreign equity inflows on aggregate liquidity of the Malaysian stock market using newly assembled foreign trading data and the best performing bid-ask spread proxy. Employing vector autoregression, we discover a one-way causality from gross inflows to aggregate liquidity, and foreign investors erode liquidity of the Malaysian stock market. Additional analyses reveal that uncertainties in the U.S. markets negatively affect aggregate liquidity through the flows of foreign institutions, whose positive feedback trading destabilizes the local bourse. Despite the shocks, there is sufficient liquidity provision from local state-backed institutional funds and local proprietary day traders.     

<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Mad Money</Emphasis> stock recommendations: market reaction and performance

We examine the stock recommendations of Jim Cramer televised on CNBC’s Mad Money, and document significant market reactions (i.e., announcement returns and volume) to Cramer’s recommendations, particularly for small capitalization stocks. The following findings indicate that the announcement returns are primarily due to price pressure from uninformed trading as opposed to the recommendations providing new value related information: announcement returns reverse following buy recommendations; bid-ask spreads temporarily decline; and there is no evidence of positive longer-term abnormal returns. One implication, when considered in combination with other works, is that investors should be cautious in following stock recommendations announced in the mass-media.     

Do voluntary disclosures of bad news improve liquidity?

Can managers improve market liquidity and lower the cost of capital by providing voluntary earnings guidance? This study examines the impact of profit warnings on market liquidity and finds that voluntary disclosure of bad news actually improves market liquidity. By conducting an empirical study over the period 1995–2010 on NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX listed firms, we find that firms that issue profit warnings show enhanced market liquidity during the post-announcement period. We show that profit warnings reduce information asymmetry and lower bid-ask spreads and increase trading volumes. These results are invariant to daily (short run) and monthly (long run) data after controlling for firm specific attributes. The results have major corporate policy implications. By voluntarily disclosing negative earnings guidance by managers, firms will experience significant improvement in market liquidity, thereby lowering the cost of capital. Our results are even more profound for firms that release bad news with extremely negative stock market impact. In other words, voluntary disclosure of bad news is good for market liquidity.     

Beating the market? A mathematical puzzle for market efficiency

The efficient market hypothesis is highly discussed in economic literature. In its strongest form, it states that there are no price trends. When weakening the non-trending assumption to arbitrary short, small, and fully unknown trends, we mathematically prove for a specific class of control-based trading strategies positive expected gains. These strategies are model free, i.e., a trader neither has to think about predictable patterns nor has to estimate market parameters such as the trend’s sign like momentum traders have to do. That means, since the trader does not have to know any trend, even trends too small to find are enough to beat the market. Adjustments for risk and comparisons with buy-and-hold strategies do not satisfactorily solve the problem. In detail, we generalize results from the literature on control-based trading strategies to market settings without specific model assumptions, but with time-varying parameters in discrete and continuous time. We give closed-form formulae for the expected gain as well as the gain’s variance and generalize control-based trading rules to a setting where older information counts less. In addition, we perform an exemplary backtesting study taking transaction costs and bid-ask spreads into account and still observe—on average—positive gains.

     

Does algorithmic trading harm liquidity? Evidence from Brazil

This paper provides the first evidence of algorithmic trading (AT) reducing liquidity in the Brazilian equities market. Our results are contrary to the majority of work which finds a positive relationship between AT and liquidity. Using the adoption of a new data center for the B3 exchange as an exogenous shock, we report evidence that AT increased realized spreads in both firm fixed-effects and vector autoregression estimates for 26 stocks between 2017 and 2018 using high-frequency data. We also provide evidence that AT increases commonality in liquidity, evidencing correlated transactions between automated traders.     

Causes of cross-autocorrelation in security returns: Transaction costs versus information quality

We examine empirically the role of transaction costs and information quality as causes of cross-autocorrelations in security returns. Nonsynchronous trading influences are addressed by forming weekly returns based on averages of closing inside bid and ask quotations for NMS securities. Stock return volatility scaled by the bid-ask spread is employed as a proxy for transaction costs and trading volume is used as a measure of information quality. We find evidence that both transaction costs and information quality may contribute to cross-autocorrelations, but that information quality dominates transaction costs in explaining cross-autocorrelations after controlling for autocorrelation influences.     

The Cost Effectiveness of the UK's Sovereign Debt Portfolio*

This paper provides a recursive empirical analysis of the scope for cost minimization in public debt management when the debt manager faces a given short‐term interest rate dictated by monetary policy as well as risk and market impact constraints. It simulates the ‘real‐time’ interest costs of alternative portfolios for UK government debt between April 1985 and March 2000. These portfolios are constructed using forecasts of return spreads based on a recursive modelling procedure. While we find statistically significant evidence of predictability, the interest cost savings are quite small when portfolio shares are constrained to lie within historical bounds.     

An examination of the forward prediction error of U.S. dollar exchange rates and how they are related to bid-ask spreads,purchasing power parity disequilibria,and forward premium asymmetry

Using a panel data approach, we find statistically significant evidence that bid-ask spreads and deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) are related to the forward prediction error of ten major U.S. dollar exchange rates over the post Plaza Accord period. Previous literature suggests that bid-ask spreads proxy for liquidity risk and deviations from PPP are a source of time-varying risk premiums. Additionally, the paper provides evidence that the forward discount bias is asymmetric with respect to the sign of the forward premium as well as to an undervalued and overvalued U.S. dollar.     

Learning,information processing and order submission in limit order markets

By introducing a genetic algorithm learning with a classifier system into a limit order market, this paper provides a unified framework of microstructure and agent-based models of limit order markets that allows traders to determine their order submission endogenously according to market conditions. It examines how traders process and learn from market information and how the learning affects limit order markets. It is found that, measured by the average usage of different group of market information, trading rules under the learning become stationary in the long run. Also informed traders pay more attention to the last transaction sign while uninformed traders pay more attention to technical rules. Learning of uninformed traders improves market information efficiency, but not necessarily when informed traders learn. Opposite to the learning of informed traders, learning makes uninformed traders submit less aggressive limit orders and more market orders. Furthermore private values can have significant impact in the short run, but not in the long run. One implication is that the probability of informed trading (PIN) is positively related to the volatility and the bid-ask spread.     

Modeling dynamic conditional correlations with leverage effects and volatility spillover effects: Evidence from the Chinese and US stock markets affected by the recent trade friction

In this article, we investigate the dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) with leverage effects and volatility spillover effects that consider time difference and long memory of returns, between the Chinese and US stock markets, in the Sino-US trade friction and previous stable periods. The widespread belief that the developed markets dominate the emerging markets in stock market interactions is challenged by our findings that both the mean and volatility spillovers are bidirectional. We do find that most of the shocks to these DCCs between the two stock markets are symmetric, and all the symmetric shocks to these DCCs are highly persistent between Shanghai’s trading return and S&P 500′s trading or overnight return, however all the shocks to these DCCs are short-lived between S&P 500′s trading return and Shanghai’s trading or overnight return. We also find clear evidence that the DCC between Shanghai’s trading return and S&P 500′s overnight return has a downward trend with a structural break, perhaps due to the “America First” policy, after which it rebounds and fluctuates sharply in the middle and later periods of trade friction. These findings have important implications for investors to pursue profits.