资本充足率、存款准备金率与货币政策银行信贷传导——基于银行业市场结构的分析

基于垄断竞争的银行业市场结构,研究银行在受到资本充足率和存款准备金率双重约束条件下,在面对货币政策冲击的情况下所做出的最优信贷决策行为。通过构造贷款市场总体均衡模型,得出以下结论:当银行满足资本充足率和存款准备金率要求时,货币政策的银行信贷传导渠道表现出有效性;而当贷款市场中的银行不能满足资本充足率或存款准备金率要求时,货币政策的银行信贷传导渠道则表现出无效性。     

Towards a sustainable growth path

For Japan’s economy, there were two tasks I embraced myself for: “how to return to a sustainable growth path” and “how to rebuild the financial system.” And for the Bank of Japan, there was also the important challenge of navigating our way on a new voyage in line with the principles of the new Bank of Japan Law, which came into effect at almost the same time as I became Governor.     

Soft budget constraints, bank capital, and the monetary transmission mechanism

This paper investigates the effect of monetary policy in a situation where soft budget constraint problems prevail in the economy and the bank faces a capital requirement. Under these circumstances, an expansionary monetary policy may increase quantity of bank lending without improving the quality and thus may not stimulate economic activity. On the other hand, in order to solve the problem of soft budget constraint problems and to improve the quality of bank lending, the quantity of bank lending should be decreased. Central authorities need to keep this tradeoff in mind when exercising monetary policy and injecting public funds.     

货币政策在民间借贷市场有效性研究

货币政策是我国宏观调控体系的重要组成部分,但是目前尚没有研究从民间借贷角度探讨其作用和影响。本文基于P2P网贷数据考察货币政策在民间借贷市场的有效性。利用2014年5月至2015年5月285家P2P平台的日交易数据,本文分析期间六次货币政策调整对于P2P网贷成交量和平均利率的影响。为确保结论稳健,本文同时使用面板数据和断点回归设计两种计量方法进行估计,结果显示：（一）货币政策在P2P市场的作用有限,六次积极的货币政策调整中,能够显著地影响P2P市场利率和成交量均不超过两次;（二）利率政策和准备金率政策的影响没有规律性差异。上述结论在不同模型设定和参数选择下均稳健。针对上述现象,本文从信贷市场分割的角度探讨了其形成原因。     

我国商业银行竞争力比较研究

本文研究了现阶段我国金融机构的发展格局、选用资本状况、资产状况、盈利能力、资产流动性和世界银行业排名等指标,对我国主要商业银行的经营状况与竞争力进行了探究。     

我国超额货币供应研究的传统视角与新视角

本文首先从超额货币出现的原因、货币流通速度下降、金融深化三个角度对我国超额货币供应问题的研究做了一个综述。然后提出在全球流动性过剩背景下,我国作为一个资本管制的国家,国内货币流动性过剩和国内资产价格的关系可以成为我国超额货币供应的进一步研究方向,并且可以为我国宏观经济调控提供更加可靠的理论和实证依据。     

MONETARY POLICY IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY: THE CASE OF MALAYSIA

This paper provides a case study to characterize the monetary policy regime in Malaysia, from a medium‐ and long‐term perspective. Specifically, we ask how the Central Bank of Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), has structured its monetary policy regime, and how it has conducted monetary and exchange rate policy under the regime. By conducting three empirical analyses, we characterize the monetary and exchange rate policy regime in Malaysia by three intermediate solutions on three vectors: the degree of autonomy in monetary policy, the degree of variability of the exchange rate, and the degree of capital mobility.     

The origin and diffusion of shocks to regional interest rates in the United States, 1880-2002

This paper is about the behavior of regional interest rates in the United States from 1880 to 2002. The main concern is with the shocks to regional rates. Where did they originate? How did they diffuse? How did the pattern change over time? We show that in the late nineteenth century the main source of shocks to rates on the periphery were shocks originating on the periphery itself. This pattern continued through World War I and the Great Depression. After World War II, however, the importance of disturbances on the periphery diminished and shocks to rates in the Eastern financial centers became the main source of fluctuations in all regions.     

Fiscal Leadership and Coordination in the EMU

We analyze the role of fiscal-monetary policy interactions and fiscal coordination in EMU under the assumption of strategic wage setting in unionized labour markets. We find that production subsidies and real wage distortions are strategic complements. The literature on macroeconomic stabilisation policies and policy games usually neglects this point and reaches overoptimistic conclusions about the desirable effects of accommodating fiscal policies. Central bank preferences also affect the desirability of fiscal coordination in a monetary union. In fact, contrary to Beetsma and Bovenberg (1998), we find that fiscal coordination improves outcomes in the case of a conservative central banker, whereas it leads to worse outcomes with a populist one.

Monetary Policy in Illiquid Markets: Options for a Small Open Economy

Two impediments to effective monetary policy operation include illiquidity in bond markets and the zero bound of interest rates. Under these conditions alternative means of enacting monetary policy may be required. This paper empirically explores policy options implemented through equity and currency markets that will generate similar inflation responses at different time horizons. In terms of GDP loss the least costly means of achieving a particular long run inflation outcome is via the current monetary policy arrangements. Currency market alternatives are volatile but less expensive than the equity market in terms of output loss for short term inflation horizons.

我国紧缩性生货币政策的局限性

本文分析了紧缩性货币政策在人民币升值预期下对抑制流动性过剩、通货膨胀、资产价格上涨的作用及其对实体经济产生的影响,提出在货币政策调控存在着两难选择的情况下,应以市场手段促进资本市场的发展,以优先保护实体经济的正常发展。     

信贷紧缩和流动性供给的悖论——全球金融危机之后中国银行业的考察(下)

我国在金融危机之后出现过信贷膨胀,经济过热之后又出现信贷紧缩。信贷紧缩会导致信贷增长下降,社会再生产的资金需求得不到满足。信贷紧缩有管理性成因,也有制度性成因。同时,为了确保经济增长的一定增速,我国的货币政策又要保持一定的流动性。这样,我国就出现了信贷紧缩和流动性供给之间的矛盾。本文讨论了全球金融危机之后,我国出现信贷紧缩的宏观经济运行背景,以及在此背景下货币政策失灵的内在逻辑。     

全球疫情冲击下的我国央行最优货币政策选择

在全球新冠病毒疫情冲击下,外国需求降低和国际大宗商品价格波动对我国实体经济造成了冲击,文章通过构建包含贸易和非贸易两部门的开放经济DSGE模型,利用脉冲响应和福利分析研究央行\"双政策双工具\"下的最优货币政策组合。结果表明：\"保增长\"的利率政策和\"稳汇率\"的汇率政策,能够更好的缓释新冠疫情带来的外部冲击,在\"保增长\"的利率政策下家庭福利水平高于\"防通胀\"的利率政策,而在\"稳汇率\"的汇率政策下家庭福利水平高于\"稳货币\"的汇率政策,因此,通过确定\"保增长\"和\"稳汇率\"的货币政策短期目标更有利于缓释外部环境对于本国贸易部门的冲击。     

Leaning against the wind: Macroprudential policy in Asia

In recent years, many countries have adopted macroprudential measures to safeguard financial stability, in particular to deal with the credit and asset price cycles driven by global capital flows. Using a newly constructed database on macroprudential instruments and capital flow measures in 13 Asian economies and 33 economies in other regions for the period 2000–2013, the paper formulates various macroprudential policy indices, aggregating sub-indices on key instruments. Asian economies appear to have made greater use of macroprudential tools, especially housing-related measures, than their counterparts in other regions. The effects of macroprudential policy are assessed through an event study, cross-country macro panel regressions, and bank-level micro panel regressions. The analysis suggests that housing-related macroprudential instruments-particularly loan-to-value ratio caps and housing tax measures—have helped curb housing price growth, credit growth, and bank leverage in Asia.     

对通货膨胀形势的若干看法

本文较为详细地分析预测了2004年以来我国的通货膨胀形势,全文分七个部分:第一部分说明2004年以来我国出现了持续的中度通货膨胀。第二部分说明居民消费价格指数严重低估了我国的通货膨胀程度。第三部分分析了居民消费价格指数暂时不能用来衡量我国通货膨胀程度的理由。第四部分分析了通胀程度被低估的不良后果。第五部分分析了此轮通货膨胀的原因和特征。第六部分对2012年的通胀形势作了分析预测,我们认为2012年通胀压力犹存,但属温和。第七部分提出了一些建议,建议及时实施正常的货币政策,避免经济大起大落。     

“Set a Sufficiently Ambitious Budget Target and Let the Automatic Stabilizers Work”. Will it Really Work in the European Monetary Union?

We examine the popular recipe in the title by means of an AD-LM-AS two-country model of the EMU, controlling for asymmetry in demand and supply shocks and in the monetary-policy transmission mechanism. Unless structural symmetry holds and symmetric shock occurs, national automatic stabilizers, even though supplemented with the common monetary policy, cannot deliver optimal stabilization in each economy. Inflation and output gaps are not closed and may be divergent in sign. Considering that a federal system of inter-regional insurance is lacking, the recipe under examination is too optimistic, while serious threat to EMU cohesion may arise. The econometric estimates we present show that existing national fiscal systems work very poorly as for the minimization, after shocks, of the dispersion of national incomes around the EMU average.