“Ideal” decision-making processes for transport planning: A comparison between Europe and South East Asia

In a recently completed research project on the decision-making process of sustainable urban transport planning issues for the European Union (EU) – entitled PROSPECTS (Procedures for Recommending Optimal Sustainable Planning of European City Transport Systems) – an “ideal” decision-making process for sustainable transport planning decisions in the European context was identified. A further EU-funded networking project (SPARKLE (Sustainability Planning for Asian Cities making use of Research, Know-How and Lessons from Europe)) considered the relevance of the PROSPECTS process to South East Asia, through seminars and workshops in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. This paper summarises various conclusions reached in these events. Whilst it was generally found that the basic element of the PROSPECTS approach transferred reasonably well to South East Asia, various key factors require revisions to be made to the approach. The most important of these factors are: differing traditions in planning; different weights in the transport-related objectives, use of only a limited set of potential policy instruments, fast growth rates (in both economic and travel terms); differences in types of vehicle used; and lack of data for use in assessment and modelling. These factors could be addressed in more detail in future research projects.     

Cities, mobility and climate change

Societies gain enormous benefits from travel, as economies have become more globalised and as the new communications infrastructure allows international networking and travel at a low cost. There has been a true internationalisation of all activities, and travel forms an essential part of that process. However, this mobility is fuelled by carbon, and there is clear scientific agreement that carbon emissions are affecting the global climate with irreversible long term consequences. Transport is the one sector where a reduction in energy use and emissions is proving to be extraordinarily difficult to achieve despite some success in urban areas. This paper focuses on cities, mobility and climate change, highlighting recent trends in both developed and developing countries. It is argued that the current situation is unsustainable, and that transport must contribute fully to achieving carbon reduction targets. An alternative is presented, based on the sustainable mobility paradigm (Banister, 2008) that looks at ways to reduce the need to travel in cities. The belief that high mobility and technology provides the solution is misplaced, as technological innovation can only get us part of the way to sustainable transport, and this may facilitate more travel. There are opportunities for cities to switch to low carbon transport futures, where vision and action are based on a combination of economic, planning and technological innovations working in mutually supporting ways. Potentially, the future is bright for low carbon transport in cities, but the real question is whether there is the commitment and leadership to follow such a path.     

Identification of critical sections of the Spanish transport system due to climate scenarios

In recent years climate change has become a multidisciplinary research topic that addresses the challenges facing transport infrastructure planning, construction and operation. The study of the adaptation of transport systems to new environmental conditions is often based on the interrelated concepts of resilience, vulnerability and criticality. In this paper we assess the criticality of sections of Spain's inland transport network under the effects of changing climate scenarios obtained from a specific climate projection (using the time periods 2010–2020 and 2045–2055). The functionality of the transport system is characterised here in terms of territorial accessibility. The results identify and locate the most critical stretches of the Spanish transport network. In general terms, the most relevant sections in regard to accessibility will not be exposed to the greatest changes in climate variables. Up to 2.8% of the roads and 5.9% of the railways that contribute most significantly to the territorial accessibility of the transport system will undergo the greatest variations between climate scenarios. This paper contributes to this field of research by developing a screening tool that represents a valuable instrument for the infrastructure decision-making process at the strategic level. Action areas for proactive adaptation measures can be identified in order to reduce impacts and costs, while prioritising the maintenance or reconstruction of the most critical stretches in the case of a future climate event.     

Looking over the horizon: Transport and reduced CO2 emissions in the UK by 2030

Transport is a major user of carbon-based fuels, and achievement of the targets set at the Kyoto Protocol and elsewhere means that the EU and national governments must reduce CO₂ emissions in all sectors, including transport. This paper reports on a recently completed study for the UK government on the options available to meet a 60% CO₂ reduction target by 2030 in the UK transport sector. The study follows a backcasting study approach, developing a business as usual baseline for transport emissions, and two alternative scenarios to 2030. Different policy measures are assessed and assembled into mutually supporting policy packages (PP). Although 2030 seems a long way ahead, action must be taken now if the targets for CO₂ reduction are to be met. The achievement of a carbon-efficient transport future, combined with holding travel levels at present levels, is likely to be very difficult. A major transformation in the way transport and urban planning is carried out is required. As transport and urban planners, we need to think very differently in tackling the new environmental and liveability imperative.     

Air travel for private purposes. An analysis of airport access,income and environmental concern in Switzerland

As air travel is considered a relevant area of action to mitigate climate change, it is important to know its determinants. The present study examines socio-demographic, spatial and attitudinal predictors of air travel for private purposes. The analyses are based on the Swiss Environmental Survey 2007 and a subsequent computation of the respondents' environmental impact, as well as spatial data.A lognormal hurdle model indicates that persons with higher environmental concern are less likely to travel by air and if they still do, they travel less. While political orientations do not affect whether a person travels by air, the results indicate that among those who do fly, respondents voting for the Green Party cause lower emissions than those opting for other left or center parties. Furthermore, higher incomes are associated with more air travel whereas living with children is associated with less air travel. Airport access is related to air travel in the sense that living closer to airports, in particular to large ones, is correlated to more air travel. The result is robust to alterations of the accessibility measure and also upholds when population density is controlled for.     

Moving towards sustainability? Mobility styles, attitudes and individual travel behaviour

Future scenarios for the transport sector are increasingly confronted with the finite nature of fossil-based resources (petrol, natural gas) and an urgent need for reductions of negative transport-related effects (CO₂ and other exhaust emissions, noise, land consumption). In view of limited technical advances and efficiency improvements, along with growing traffic volumes, behavioural changes towards more sustainable travel futures have attained a crucial importance. This paper will discuss initial results from a 2-year project (funded by the British Economic and Social Research Council - ESRC) which aims to develop the notion of sustainability-related ‘mobility styles’ as a context for applying targeted social marketing policies to specific population segments. Based on ten focus group discussions and a survey of more than 1500 participants in the South West of England, two segmentation approaches are used to identify gaps between different domains of individual travel behaviour and the varying role of attitudes for travel decisions. The results demonstrate the usefulness and limitations of existing segmentation approaches and underline the need for more complex and comprehensive mobility style frameworks as basis for measures aiming at behavioural change towards sustainable mobility.     

Climate change and the air travel decisions of UK tourists

Whilst much effort has been made to communicate to the public the importance of reducing carbon footprints in the home, one area where emissions are growing rapidly and little attempt has been made to increase consumer understanding of the impacts is holidays, particularly those involving air travel. Using focus group research, this paper explores tourists’ awareness of the impacts of travel on climate change, examines the extent to which climate change features in holiday travel decisions and identifies some of the barriers to the adoption of less carbon-intensive tourism practices. The findings suggest that many tourists do not consider climate change when planning their holidays. The failure of tourists to engage with the climate change impact of holidays, combined with significant barriers to behavioural change, presents a considerable challenge in moving the tourism industry onto a sustainable emissions path. The findings are discussed in relation to theoretical perspectives from psychology and sociology.     

Examining transport needs in the global south using a screening framework

Despite the increasing emphasis on the social aspects of transport externalities in the global agenda of public policies (UN, 2016), transport appraisals (ex-ante) are still strongly driven by economic and environmental analysis only (Geurs et al. 2009; Jones and Lucas 2012). In this context, the goals targeting poverty reduction and social well-being promotion become fundamentally undermined when the social impacts are overlooked in the decision-making process of transport development (Vasconcellos 2003; World Bank 2006; Jones and Lucas 2012; Jones et al. 2013).Hence, in a context where the transport-related needs have been either disregarded, not fully captured, or addressed by subjective approaches, the proposition of an objective and well-grounded screening framework of transport needs can play a pivotal role in making transport planning more socially inclusive. The framework that is proposed applies the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and spatial autocorrelation techniques to provide tools and evidence-based guidelines that can guide transport interventions in Northeast Brazil to become more effective in reducing poverty. While the socially driven framework that is outlined here focuses on the transport needs of Northeast Brazil, it can also be replicated in other developing countries facing similar socio-economic and transport challenges. The results show that different regions of Northeast Brazil suffer differently from externalities and that sub-regional analysis is needed.     

Impacts of high speed rail on railroad network accessibility in China

High speed rail (HSR) is changing the overall travel accessibility of cities in China. There have been a number of studies of high speed rail in China. However, detailed spatiotemporal accessibility pattern of cities affected by the operation of high speed rail in China has not been reported. This study takes a timetable-based accessibility evaluation approach to analyze the changes in travel time, travel cost, and distance accessibility for each of the four main stages of HSR development in China: no HSR service in Stage 1 before August 2008, several HSR lines in Stage 2 between August 2008 and July 2011, reduced operating speed of HSR trains in Stage 3 between August 2011 and November 2012, and addition of new HSR lines and reduction of ticket fares in Stage 4 between December 2012 and January 2013. In addition to the “corridor effect” and the “center-diffusion” pattern, this paper investigates the impacts of HSR on changes in in-vehicle travel time and out-of-vehicle travel time with respect to the policy changes that reduced the operating speed of HSR trains, rearranged the train timetable, and lowered the ticket fare on HSR trains. The analysis results indicate the spatiotemporal pattern of Chinese cities affected by these policy changes. This study is useful for assessing HSR impacts on the accessibility of various cities across China as well as serving as a decision-making support to policies related to adjustments of HSR operation and planning of future HSR routes by considering the existing HSR and non-HSR railway lines.     

The impact of metropolitan,county, and local land use on driving emissions in US metropolitan areas: Mediator effects of vehicle travel characteristics

Many municipalities in the U.S. pursue compact development to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from driving. Despite the efforts, however, recent studies suggest that some land use strategies such as densification and mixed-use development may result in slower vehicle movements, and consequently generate more driving emissions. Since vehicle miles of travel (VMT) is only a proxy and not an exact measure of emissions, reduction in VMT may not lead to a proportional reduction in transportation GHG emissions. Aside from local land use efforts, regional factors also influence vehicle travel and associated emissions.This study investigates the relationship between land use, vehicle travel, and driving emissions in the selected U.S. metropolitan areas at multiple geographic levels. The study employed structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques to examine how land use influences vehicle travel characteristics and associated emissions. The main data sources for the analyses include the 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) add-on samples and the Smart Location Database (SLD) from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The study results show that VMT reduction and the associated environmental benefit do not show a one-on-one relationship due to the emissions penalty of lowered vehicle operating speed. Vehicle travel and associated emissions are not only influenced by local urban form factors but also affected by the greater geographical context.     

Can freeway traffic volume information facilitate urban accessibility assessment?: Case study of the city of St. Louis

In urban contexts, accessibility measures are often utilized to represent the interactions among land use, transport and people’s trips to services and other facilities. Accessibility is generally evaluated using conventional traffic measures such as travel time and distance, but traffic volume, which is a product of the travel trips induced by people’s needs, may also be positively related to accessibility. This study tests the hypothesis “can freeway traffic volume information facilitate urban accessibility assessment?” Traffic volume based accessibility models are proposed to investigate this relationship and test the hypothesis. The results indicate that the answer to this question is a qualified “yes”, as there is a statistically significant relationship between traffic volume differences and accessibility. The coefficients of the models can potentially be used as a reference to guide the urban planning process. The limitations of the proposed models can be addressed by deploying Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) traffic sensors on ramps and arterial roadways.     

Grocery store accessibility: Different metrics – Different modal disparity results and spatial patterns

Most accessibility studies focus on within transport mode travel performance variations. However, modal accessibility disparity analysis adds value to the single-mode analysis by assessing the interaction between different transport modes and land use. A review of modal disparity studies shows that different accessibility metrics lead to different results, and so it is unclear how this impacts modal accessibility disparity variation. Moreover, the correspondence of the disparity spatial pattern between the different metrics is unclear. This research examines how three typical accessibility metrics (closest facility, cumulative opportunity, space-time constrained) impact modal disparity of grocery store accessibility in Warsaw, Poland. Further, local indicators of spatial association are used to identify areas of similarity and difference between the metrics. This study finds that cumulative opportunities during non-rush hours indicate the best car advantage for all travel times but indicate the best transit advantage during rush hours for 15 min. Generally, the space-time metric indicates better transit accessibility than the closest facility metric which in turn shows better transit accessibility than cumulative opportunities. The city center has significant spatial similarity while peripheral, especially dense, areas have significant spatial difference. Similarity areas have higher transit stop and population densities, while difference areas have average-to-low stop, population, road and store densities.     

Dynamics of transport and social exclusion: Effects of expensive driver's license

This study explores the interface between the theme of “transport-related social exclusion” and resource allocation in a household. The study posits the “license to drive” as a skill which affects the family as a whole. The consequences of expensive driver's license (DL) within the domain of family structure, gender and its implications for the non-western immigrants in Norway are discussed. Further we analyse how decision-making within a family and the tenets of social exclusion are therefore affected both by the availability of public transport and price of procuring a driving license in the Norwegian context. Through assessing the linkages between expensive driver's license and its substitution elasticity by public transport, we arrive at a surprising possibility that for high values on both factors, an additional increase to the substitution elasticity (improved public transport) may lead to further social exclusion for certain groups through a denied access to driver's license.     

Research agenda for low-carbon mobility: Issues for New World cities

ABSTRACT

Low-carbon mobility (LCM) features strongly in debates about the sustainability of cities and their resilience in the face of demographic, economic, and climate change. Transport is a major source of carbon emissions and there are indications that these continue to increase, despite the considerable recent advances in vehicle, engine, and fuel technologies. Reducing carbon emissions from transport may become more difficult, not easier. A particular issue relates to the New World cities, typified by those of North America and Australasia, which largely developed from the latter half of the nineteenth century onward and whose transportation systems were largely based around private vehicle ownership and usage. These cities are typically composed of low-density, dispersed suburbs, which are highly car dependent and resource and carbon emission intensive. This article develops a research agenda directed at determining and testing policy and planning measures relevant to the quest for low carbon mobility in New World cities. It suggests a rich agenda for essential research on LCM. Much of this agenda falls within the realm of the integration of transport and land use, with attention to urban design details to enhance the perceptions of and opportunities to use low carbon transport alternatives. Research topics identified for LCM research include (1) urban design and land use–transport integration (LUTI), (2) low carbon mobility policies directed at achieving widespread behavior change, (3) opportunities for new technology and its application, including requirements for systems and infrastructure, and (4) analysis and tools for informed decision making, including modeling, measurement, visualization, and especially assessment.     

Environmental benefits of air–rail intermodality: The example of Madrid Barajas

The environmental impact of transport is a growing issue in transport infrastructure planning. The construction of a high-speed rail station at the Madrid Barajas Airport in Spain is an example of the integration of different transportation modes, with expected environmental benefits. We construct a model to assess modal choice and environmental benefits. The results show that with high-speed rail the number of people choosing air travel and the private car is reduced leading to important environmental benefits: a reduction of close to 5 kg of CO₂ per passenger, or 10% of all emissions on the corridor. Our results also show that increasing the cost of using the private car is picked up by air transport rather than high-speed rail, leading to an increase in total emissions.     

Mobilities of the periphery: Informality,access and social exclusion in the urban fringe in Colombia

The relationship between transport, poverty and social exclusion has increasingly held an important place in both research and policy agendas, particularly in industrialised countries. While this has helped consolidate an emerging body of theory concerned with the social consequences of mobility, our understanding of these dynamics in the context of high vulnerability and poverty in the Global South is still relatively undeveloped. Through the case of Soacha, a municipality adjacent to Colombia's capital, Bogotá, this paper explores travel strategies in a context of scarce provision of transport which, when combined with acute conditions of low-income and segregation, limit vulnerable populations' access to the city. The travel practices, perceptions and priorities of low-income populations in deprived areas of the Global South are analysed, using a framework of transport-related social exclusion, to critically examine the elements that play a role in gaining access to the city. The emergence of adaptable methods, relations and transactions between demand and supply that allows deprived populations to reduce their risk of becoming socially excluded show potential for conceptual and practical development in addressing and analysing transport-related social exclusion.     

Transport and climate change: Simulating the options for carbon reduction in London

Transport is a major user of carbon-based fuels, and it is increasingly being highlighted as the sector which contributes least to CO₂ emission reduction targets. This paper reports on the findings of the VIBAT London study (www.vibat.org) which considers the role of the transport sector in reducing CO₂ emissions in London.The analysis develops a transport and carbon simulation model (TC-SIM) for London. Within this, users are able to consider the implementation of a series of potential policy packages—low emission vehicles, alternative fuels, pricing regimes, public transport, walking and cycling, strategic and local urban planning, information and communication technologies, smarter choices, ecological driving and slower speeds, long distance travel substitution, freight transport and international air. They can select variable levels of application to help achieve headline CO₂ emission reduction targets. The roles of carbon rationing and oil prices are also considered. TC-SIM can be played in different user modes: as ‘free riders’, ‘techno-optimists’, ‘enviro-optimists’, ‘complacent car addicts’ and other typical travel market segments, including a ‘free role’. Game playing or scenario testing such as this helps to highlight perceived levels of homogeneity of views within certain cohorts, the development of entrenched positions and the likely success in achieving objectives.The paper develops various policy packages, scenarios and pathways aimed at reducing transport CO₂ emissions. It argues that strategic CO₂ emission reduction targets are very ambitious relative to current progress, and that we need to act more effectively across a wide range of policy mechanisms, with a ‘high intensity application’ of many of the options, to get near to achieving these targets. A critical issue here will be in communicating and gaining greater ‘ownership’ of future lifestyle choices with stakeholders and the public, and participation tools such as TC-SIM could become increasingly important in this area.     

Dynamic accessibility: Incorporating day-to-day travel time reliability into accessibility measurement

Travel times and hence accessibility in urban areas are susceptible to traffic disruption caused by events such as congestion, roadworks and traffic accidents. Being highly valued by travellers, travel time reliability affects their participation in activities and thus, plays a decisive role in accessibility. The aim of the study was to develop an approach to integrate travel time reliability into the measurement of accessibility. To achieve this, we extended a commonly-used accessibility indicator to include day-to-day variability in travel times. In a case study of the accessibility to the newly-built Queen Elizabeth University Hospital (QEUH) in Glasgow, we used real-time travel times with high temporal resolution collected over a long period of time to demonstrate the applicability and the utility value of this approach compared to the standard accessibility measurement. Our results revealed that travel time reliability varied both temporally and spatially, and zones experienced relatively high levels of accessibility loss due to higher travel time variability. The proposed approach provides a more realistic representation of actual network performance, allows for assessing the effect of travel time reliability on accessibility throughout the day and will help transport planners to trace equity impacts on accessibility due to travel time unreliability.     

The ‘accessibility diary’: Discussing a new methodological approach to understand the impact of Internet use upon personal travel and activity participation

Diary studies have become increasingly popular in the field of transport research since their first recorded use just over 60 years ago, allowing collection of data not only on patterns of travel, but also on the full context for travel. However, few have incorporated recording of people’s use of new technologies, specifically, the Internet. This paper discusses a methodology, the accessibility diary, designed so to do. With a focus upon usability for participants and utility for researchers, the paper describes the diary design in full, assessing its efficacy with reference to focus group, interview and questionnaire data, alongside lessons from the analysis. The paper concludes with a consideration of the dilemma facing transport researchers: the wish to collect ever more complex information to advance understanding versus the need to develop methodologies that are simple to use, to maximise data quality and response rates.