Liquidity creation and bank profitability

This paper examines the effect of liquidity creation on bank profitability. Using a panel of US banks, we find that liquidity creation is associated with higher profitability. This result holds during normal times and the financial crisis, and for banks of different sizes. When we decompose liquidity creation into its individual components, we find that liability-side and off-balance sheet liquidity creation are positively related to profitability, while asset-side liquidity creation is negatively related to profitability.     

Income diversification and bank risk in Asia Pacific

This paper investigates the effect of income diversification on bank risk for a large sample of commercial banks in 14 Asia Pacific economies over the period 2011–2016. Using a dynamic panel data model with a system generalized methodof moments estimator, we find that banks with a higher level of income diversification are less risky in general. We further consider both developed and emerging economies according to the International Monetary Fund's classification of the level of economic development. Specifically, for emerging economies, the results indicate that banks with a higher level of income diversification face less risk. However, the diversification of commercial bank income has no significant impact on bank risk in developed Asia Pacific economies.     

National versus supranational bank regulation: Gains and losses of joining a banking union

We ask how the structure of international banking affects the decision of a national regulator to join a banking union and to transfer regulatory powers to the supranational level. The focus is on bank supervision and bank resolution. A national regulator ignores possible gains or losses, which accrue to other jurisdictions if banks are internationally active. A supranational regulator takes these regulatory external effects into account. While supranational regulation improves total welfare, this is not necessarily the case for welfare in single countries. By analyzing the size and determinants of spillover effects we show how they constrain a country’s willingness to participate in a banking union. Our results may explain why some member states of the European Union currently hesitate to join the European Banking Union.     

Financial innovation and bank growth: The role of institutional environments

This research evaluates the impact of financial innovation on bank growth and how their growth is affected by various dimensions of institutional environments’ interaction with financial innovation. To address these relationships, we use different measures of financial innovation and bank growth from a panel dataset of 40 countries (OECD and non-OECD) over a sample period spanning from 1989 to 2011. There are three main findings herein. First, banks located in countries with a higher level of financial innovation exhibit better growth in assets, loans, and profits. This positive linkage remains highly significant in the subsample without considering the 2007–2008 global financial crisis. Second, bank regulations, financial reforms, and country governance indicators tend to weaken the relationship between financial innovation and bank growth. Third, globalization leans toward strengthening this relationship.     

Should banks diversify or focus? Know thyself: The role of abilities

The paper investigates whether diversification/focus across assets, industries and borrowers affects bank performance when banks’ abilities (screening and monitoring) are considered. The initial results show that diversification (focus) at the asset, industry and borrower levels is expected to decrease (increase) returns. However, once banks’ screening and monitoring abilities are controlled for, the effect of diversification/focus either gets weaker or disappears. Further, in some cases, these abilities enhance banks’ long-run performance, but in others they prove to be costly, at least, in the short run. Thus, the level of monitoring and screening abilities should be taken into consideration in understanding, planning and implementing diversification/focus strategies.     

Liquidity,bank runs,and fire sales under local thinking

We examine the implications on banking crises when markets are populated by agents that neglect tail risks and form expectations conditioned on a favorable subset of possible states of the economy. We find that optimal bank liquidity is lower than would be the case under rational expectations, and, consequently, the banking system is more vulnerable to adverse shocks, which lead to bank runs. Asset pledgeability of surviving banks is also affected so that their capacity to raise external funds for purchasing assets of distressed banks is weakened. Further, we examine the case when asset returns are correlated through securitization. In this case adverse shocks are felt uniformly across the banking sector and banks that survive with the help of a public liquidity backstop will become risk-averse and reluctant to purchase distressed assets. Finally, we explore a government funded asset purchase program, that is implemented with an asset price target.     

Technical Efficiency in a Semi-Formal Financial Sector: The Case of Mexico*

The semi-formal financial sector in Mexico is playing an increasingly important role in serving a largely poor, rural clientele. A stochastic frontier with non-monotonic marginal effects [ Wang, Journal of Productivity Analysis (2002 ), Vol. 18, pp. 241–253] reveals a wide disparity in technical efficiency levels among 190 Mexican semi-formal financial intermediaries. The results show that technology, average loan size, rural outreach and institutional age are all positively associated with technical efficiency. The marginal effects vary widely and, in some cases, the effects are non-monotonic over percentile groups. The results indicate that strengthening younger, technologically undeveloped financial institutions will have the strongest marginal benefit in revitalizing the rural financial sector.     

Does bank capitalization matter for bank stock returns?

We examine US bank capitalization and its association with bank stock returns, and find that the book- and market-based capital ratios show different patterns. Fama-MacBeth regressions and portfolio analyses suggest that banks’ market-based capital ratios are negatively associated with banks’ stock returns during the (tranquil) 1994–2007 period while book-based capital ratios are positively associated with banks’ stock returns during the (turbulent) 2008–2014 period. These results suggest that the effect of bank capitalization on bank stock returns depends on the capital measure used and the period considered.     

Does CEO gender matter for bank risk?

This paper addresses the relation between CEO gender and bank risk. We exploit a unique dataset of 365 Polish cooperative banks, 42% of which are run by female CEOs. We find that banks headed by female CEOs are less risky: they report higher capital adequacy and equity to assets ratios. Credit risk in female-led banks is not different from male-led banks, and therefore higher capital adequacy does not stem from lower asset quality and is likely to be linked to higher risk aversion of female CEOs. Our evidence supports the view that women are more risk averse bank CEOs than men. Our findings suggest that gender quotas in bank boards can contribute to reduce risk-taking behavior.     

Efficiency,growth and market power in the banking industry: New approach to efficient structure hypothesis

We extend the work of Homma, Tsutsui, and Uchida (2014) to provide empirical evidence on nexus of relationships in efficient structure (ES) hypothesis. In this framework, we test causality from cost efficiency to bank growth and then from bank growth to market concentration. We apply this approach to banking industry in Association of South East Asian (ASEAN) over the period of 1999–2014. The efficiency scores have been estimated by employing Slack Based Measurements Data Envelopment Analysis (SMB DEA). We apply Two-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Panel Vector Auto Regression (PVAR) to account for endogeneity in estimation models. The results show that cost efficiency enables the banks to grow and obtain higher market share. The resultant growth then leads to higher market concentration/bank market power. There is also some evidence to support for quiet life (QL) hypothesis. Therefore, both ES and QL hypotheses may coexist in ASEAN banking industry.     

Asymptotically distribution-free tests for the volatility function of a diffusion

This paper develops two tests for parametric volatility function of a diffusion model based on Khmaladze (1981)’s martingale transformation. The tests impose no restrictions on the functional form of the drift function and are shown to be asymptotically distribution-free. The tests are consistent against a large class of fixed alternatives and have nontrivial power against a class of root-n$n$ local alternatives. The paper also extends the tests of volatility to testing for joint specifications of drift and volatility. Monte Carlo simulations show that the tests perform well in finite samples. The proposed tests are then applied to testing models of short-term interest, using data of Treasury bill rate and Eurodollar deposit rate. The empirical results show that the commonly used CKLS volatility function of Chan et al. (1992) fits volatility function poorly and none of the parametric interest rate models considered in the paper fit data well.     

A decision model for bank branch site selection: Define branch success and do not deviate

Site selection is one of the most important decision making processes for firms since, if done correctly, it provides access to the best customers and the greatest market potential. In contrast, poor location choices are costly and difficult to reverse.This paper deals with the single branch site selection problem in the banking context. Due to the high level of complexity (several factors have to be taken into consideration in the decision making process as well as a wide range of entities' internal requirements), to date there is no single procedure that fits all needs. This paper attempts to provide a solution to this problem by proposing a unified method based on minimizing the distance from the candidate-branch to the most successful branches, taking into account each banking institution’ notion of branch success. This methodology would work well at the lowest possible cost.     

The Role of Export Market Participation in the Choice of Organizational Form of Production Technology*

This paper shows that the reason for a higher capital–labour ratio, observed for exporting firms, is a higher capital intensity of their production technology. Exporters choose to use different organizational forms of their production process, in which the share of capital and intermediate inputs in the final output is higher than that of non‐exporters. The organization of the production process is part of the firm's organizational strategy, which generates within‐industry heterogeneity in factor intensities and production technologies. The results of this study indicate that the decision to export is preceded by a process of restructuring production technology, which then has the effect of increasing a firms’ productivity and in so doing prepares them for competition in the global market.     

The European Union's Proposed Equality and Data Protection Rules: An Existential Problem for Insurers?

Insurance companies use personal data to price personal insurance risks. Innovative data‐collection and processing strategies, including big data, offer the potential for better analysis of traditional risks and for markets in new types of insurance. This paper examines the potential for EU data protection and anti‐discrimination legislation – both existing and proposed – to threaten not only this potential but also the traditional personal insurance business. It offers a strategy based upon codes of practice and technological innovation that would allow insurers to protect their business and to innovate while meeting the concerns of legislators about discrimination and data protection.     

The impact of the macroeconomic factors in the bank efficiency: Evidence from the Chinese city banks

This study uses stochastic frontier analysis to examine the impact of the regional disparities in the cost and profit efficiency for a sample of city commercial banks in China from 2005 to 2014. The results indicate that bank efficiency of Chinese City Commercial banks is positively correlated to the per capital GDP but negatively linked to urban population ratio. However, compared the eastern and non-eastern regions, there is a significant difference in effects of macroeconomic factors for bank efficiency. The macroeconomic conditions influence the efficiency of Chinese City Commercial banks in eastern regions are more significant than the others.     

An evaluation of financial institutions: Impact on consumption and investment using panel data and the theory of risk-bearing

The theory of the optimal allocation of risk and the Townsend Thai panel data on financial transactions are used to assess the impact of the major formal and informal financial institutions of an emerging market economy. We link financial institution assessment to the actual impact on clients, rather than ratios and non-performing loans. We derive both consumption and investment equations from a common core theory with both risk and productive activities. The empirical specification follows closely from this theory and allows both OLS and IV estimation. We thus quantify the consumption and investment smoothing impact of financial institutions on households including those running farms and small businesses. A government development bank (BAAC) is shown to be particularly helpful in smoothing consumption and investment, in no small part through credit, consistent with its own operating system, which embeds an implicit insurance operation. Commercial banks are smoothing investment, largely through formal savings accounts. Other institutions seem ineffective by these metrics.     

Spatial analysis of liquidity risk in China

This study investigates the interaction of liquidity risk in Chinese banks through a spatial econometric method that includes geographical and economic relations. The former is defined as sharing the same border, and the latter considers both bank type and lending behavior. We find evidence of liquidity spillovers through varying spatial dependence based on geographical and economic closeness within banks. The results highlight the importance of liquidity management and provide evidence of risk co-movement for regulators taking a new viewpoint on liquidity regulation.     

The effect of raising deposit insurance coverage in times of financial crisis – Evidence from Croatian microdata

Typically, depositors in transition countries react very sensitively to the safety of deposits. Faced with rising deposit outflows in October 2008, many transition countries were forced to extend the limits of deposit insurance coverage. Has this calmed private agents? Or has it caused more uncertainty? We analyze these questions by employing household survey data for Croatia from exactly the time deposit insurance was extended. First, we provide evidence how the financial crisis has affected trust in banks and trust in the local currency. Then, we show that the increase in deposit insurance coverage had an immediate and positive impact on how people perceived the safety of deposits and the credibility of the local currency. Therefore, our results suggest that this policy measure helped to prevent a more serious and dangerous meltdown of deposits and a further shift towards foreign currency denominated assets. However, despite this effect the perceived safety of deposits remained lower than it was before the financial crisis. We also consider this finding to be of relevance for other countries of Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe.     

Credit-based early warning indicators of banking crises in emerging markets

This article explores the role of credit-based variables as early warning indicators (EWIs) of banking crises in the context of emerging economies. We collect data on bank and total credit to the private sector in emerging markets and evaluate the signalling performance by using the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC). Our results show that nominal credit growth and the change in the credit-to-GDP ratio have the best signalling properties and significantly outperform the credit-to-GDP gap in almost all specifications for policy-relevant horizons. These findings are in stark contrast with the results on advanced economies, where the credit-to-GDP gap is the single best performing EWI. Our results emphasize the importance of caution when applying statistical methods calibrated for advanced markets to emerging economies.     

Supply chain finance and impacts of consumers’ sustainability awareness

Several new methods have been proposed for supply chain finance (SCF) with bank credits, but none of them mentions how to solve the borrowers’ moral hazard problems in SCF. This paper examines the moral hazard problem in supply chain financing with procurement contract (or purchase order). We show that since supply chain is an up-down directed structure, when financing with the procurement contract, the supplier’s effort monitoring task can be rendered to the procurement contract, which can secure the supplier’s optimal effort and capital choices in production. Hence, compared to separate lending, the supplier’s credit rationing problem can be mitigated, and most importantly, banks’ under-estimation on the supplier’s default risk and the over-estimation on the retailer’s default risk will both decrease. We further show that the retailer’s corporate social responsibility expenditure can increase consumers’ brand recognition, thus when facing demand shocks arising from consumer’s unexpected concerns, the retailer can better stabilize the firm value.