Air transport demand and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa: Direction of causality

Air transport may be a key tool to advance economic development. However, it is uncertain whether air transport boosts economic development, or vice versa. Both views have theoretical and empirical support. In some countries and regions, air transport is important for initiating development, for example by attracting foreign direct investment or granting access to lifelines. Elsewhere, economic development drives air transport demand. Establishing the direction of causality for regions/countries segmented by income level may inform pragmatic policy. This study analyzes the causal relationship between air transport demand and economic development for six sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1981–2018. Vector error correction and vector autoregression models are employed to identify long- and short-run causalities. The results reveal heterogeneous, context-specific causal relationships. In the long-run, for South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya, the direction of causality runs from economic development to air transport demand; for Ethiopia, causality runs in the opposite direction, with increased demand for air transport promoting economic development; and for Senegal and Angola, the relationship is too weak to infer causal directions. Possible explanations for this heterogeneity include differences in per capita income, low-cost carriers' share of national aviation markets, the presence of large home-based airlines, and comparative geographical advantage as a natural hub.     

The Air Liberalisation Index as a tool in measuring the impact of South Africa's aviation policy in Africa on air passenger traffic flows

In Africa, the Yamoussoukro Decision (YD) to date remains the single most important air transport reform policy, the continent-wide implementation of which remains pending. This study employs the Air Liberalisation Index (ALI), developed by the Word Trade Organisation (WTO) Secretariat, to measure the impact of each of the seven quantifiable market access features of South Africa's aviation policy in Africa on air passenger traffic flows. A fixed one-way panel regression technique was applied to panel data, representing five air transport markets: intra-African, the SADC, East African, West African and North African over two time periods (2000–2010; 2006–2010). The results proved to be significant in three markets, intra-African, the SADC and East African and provide new insights into the relationship between air passenger traffic flows and aviation policy in the South African – intra-African and regional contexts.     

Making the connections between transport disadvantage and the social exclusion of low income populations in the Tshwane Region of South Africa

To date, the majority of studies which consider transport from a social exclusion perspective have been conducted in the context of the developed world where both income poverty and lack of transport are relative rather absolute states. In a unique departure from these previous studies, this paper explores the relationship between transport and social disadvantage in the development context, the key difference being that income poverty is absolute and where there is much lower access to both private and public transportation generally. Thus, it seeks to explore whether the concept of social exclusion remains valid, when it is the majority of the population that is experiencing transport and income poverty compared with the minority who do so in advanced economies.The paper is based on a scoping study for the Republic of South Africa Department of Transport (RSA DOT), which primarily involved focus group discussions with a range of socially deprived urban and peri-urban population groups living in the Tshwane region of South Africa. In a second departure from previous studies which consider transport and social disadvantage in the development context, the study takes a primarily urban focus. The rationale for this is that theoretically low income urban settlements do not suffer from the lack of transport infrastructure and motorised transport services in the way that more remote rural areas do. The policy issue is therefore less a question of addressing a deficit in supply and more one of addressing particular aspects of public transit service failure, which are more readily amenable to relatively low cost, manageable, small-scale national and local policy interventions.A primary aim for the study was to reinvigorate cross-government debate of these issues in the hope of breaking South African government’s long-standing and persistent policy inertia in the delivery of equitable and socially sustainable urban transport systems.     

Introduction to the special issue: Air transport in the Global South

Research on the development and impacts of air transport has hitherto focused mainly on developed countries in the Global North, and relatively little on less developed countries in the Global South. The seven papers of this Special Issue of the Journal of Transport Geography aim to address this imbalance and encourage further research on air transport development in the Global South. In recent years, the Global South has witnessed significant changes in air transport networks and policies, with implications for economic growth, spatial development and airline business models. This Special Issue explores some challenges to air transport development in the Global South for countries in Africa, South America, the Middle East and Asia, including links between air transport and economic development, the evolution and key drivers of air transport growth and the spatial distribution of passenger airline networks, and the development and impact of low-cost carriers. It also identifies opportunities for future research in this growing area.     

Assessing equity in transport accessibility to work and study: The Bogotá region

This research was aimed at exploring levels of equity in accessibility to employment and education in the city-region of Bogotá, Colombia's capital city. Building on consolidated methodologies for the assessment of potential accessibility, we estimate accessibility indicators at the zone level, evaluate how potential accessibility varies among income groups, and present evidence related to transport mode, in order to analyze social and spatial inequalities produced by the distribution of accessibility to employment and education activities. The research incorporates a method to evaluate how accessibility varies among zones according to average income and mode of transport in order to produce evidence-based arguments that can inform transport policy in the city-region of Bogotá, and other similar contexts in the Global South. Our results show strong distributional effects of the socio-spatial and economic structure of the city-region, its transport infrastructure and services, and the effect of current transport and land-use policies for citizens of different income groups. The tools and empirical evidence in this research seek to contribute to informed policy development in Latin America and other developing contexts, and feeding current debates on the role of accessibility in addressing social and spatial inequalities stemming from urban mobility.     

Establishment of transport authorities in local sphere of government in South Africa: unfolding of the process

As part of the political restructuring process in South Africa, transport legislation was approved during 2000 allocating new transport functions to new independent transport authorities, thus providing local sphere of government with a new range of powers and responsibilities. This article focuses on some international models for transport authorities, a brief historical perspective on the background to the South African situation, a summary of the legislated provisions that are relevant to transport authorities, followed by a few local case studies to illustrate the initial concepts that have emerged during preliminary investigations in South Africa. The article concludes with a discussion of anticipated problem areas.     

Mitigating Gender Inequality in Rural Regions: The Effects of Tourism Employment in Namibia

We examine the effects of tourism employment on gender inequality in Namibia. We find that tourism contributes to local livelihoods by providing opportunities for cash income through employment, craft sales and shareholder profits from tourism enterprises. In general, male‐headed households are economically better off. Female‐headed households with tourism employment are better off than those without and are as equally well‐off as male‐headed households. We find no significant statistical difference between male‐headed households with tourism employment and those without it. These findings suggest that tourism provides specific advantages for women and helps mitigate gender inequality in areas where tourism employment is available. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The causal relationship between air transport and economic growth: Empirical evidence from South Asia

This paper examines the causal relationship between air transport and economic growth in the South Asian context. Using panel data over a period of 42 years (1973–2014), we apply Pedroni/Johansen cointegration test methods, followed by Granger long-run and Wald short-run causality tests. To allow for spatial heterogeneity we then apply Time Series Cross Section (TSCS) Granger causality tests for each of the eight analysed countries separately. Our results confirm a long-run uni-directional Granger causality which runs from GDP to air passenger traffic and also to air freight volumes. Contrary to the existing literature we do not find a long-run bi-directional causality which confirms that spatial dimensions and context matter (i.e. low income and large populations). The absence of short-run causality and the identified time lags of 3–4 years should guide aviation firms and policy makers in the preparation of necessary infrastructure required to support the strong air transport growth potential.     

‘Africanisation’ of South Africa’s international air links, 1994–2003

In the first decade of democratic rule in South Africa scheduled commercial passenger flights across the country’s borders more than doubled. Additional flights served new African air passenger markets and secondary airports in established markets. Overseas flights increased more slowly, serving a diminishing number of overseas countries and cities. In 1994 the Republic was linked directly by air with more overseas than African countries and cities; within a decade the pattern reversed. The changing geography of South Africa’s international air links reflects developments in the international airline industry, and South Africa’s increasingly prominent political and commercial role in Africa.     

South Africa has Second Homes Too! An Exploration of the Unexplored

The aim of this investigation is to make a contribution towards addressing the paucity of academic reflection on second home development in South Africa. More specifically, the paper aims to provide some preliminary insights into the question of what types of second homes there are in South Africa and what impacts second home development holds for different types of urban settlements. The examples drawn upon in this investigation cover diverse urban settings. These case studies include (1) a small rural town in the eastern Free State province – Clarens; (2) a small coastal village in KwaZulu-Natal – Zinkwazi; and (3) a neighbourhood in the Cape Town Metropolitan area – De Waterkant. While the case studies elucidate unique development characteristics and impacts, the investigations also highlight some commonalities. In particular, it is firstly argued that second home development in South Africa demonstrates similarities to developments found internationally; and secondly, that the near-generic impacts of second homes found elsewhere are echoed in the South African context too. Here, in particular, the generation of employment and property price appreciation stand out as key similarities.     

Evolution of regional inequality in the global shipping network

Global shipping is a backbone of the global economy, and as such, it evolves alongside the development of trade and the elaboration of commodity chains. This paper investigates the evolution of regional inequality in the global shipping network by analyzing the changing positions of world regions during the period from 2001 to 2012. This was a period of both prosperity and recession in maritime shipping. Using data on inter-regional flow connections, the positions of seventeen regions in the global shipping network are analyzed in terms of their traffic development, centrality, dominance and vulnerability. The East Asian, Northwest European and Europe Mediterranean regions have consistently held the highest positions, while East African and North African regions have held the lowest positions. By commanding the largest flows in the network, East Asia assumes a dominant position. The Australasian, North American West Coast, Northwest European and Southern African regions show an increasing dependency on East Asia. The analysis also identifies a few emerging regions that have had the highest growth rates in total traffic volume and connectivity for the studied period, namely South American North Coast, South American East Coast, West Africa, Southern Africa and West Asia. The empirical results of this paper supplement existing research on global shipping network evolution. One implication of the analysis is that the traffic growth of East Asia does not imply that, there is an equivalent improvement in its position in the global shipping network. The paper also shows that indicators from network analysis may be used to provide a more nuanced understanding of port-regional development than existing measures based solely on total traffic volume.     

Impact of international tourism on the Chinese economy

Since 1990, international tourism to China has grown dramatically, as has the rest of the Chinese economy. Its impact on the Chinese economy is estimated for 1997, the last year for which sufficient input–output, social accounting and tourist expenditure data are available when the paper was written. With these data, a so‐called type II input–output model is constructed, which enables to estimate direct, indirect and induced impacts. The results show that 1.64% of gross domestic product, 1.40% of household income and 1.01% of Chinese employment is dependent on international tourism. The differences are explained by the sectoral composition of the tourist expenditures, together with the sectoral differences in capital/labour ratios, labour productivity and backward linkages. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Factors influencing cultural event tourism in Nelson Mandela Bay,South Africa

ABSTRACT

Cultural tourism has established a market share of approximately 20% in the tourism sector globally. In addition, it fosters socio-economic benefits for a destination and its residents. This study explores residents’ attitudes towards cultural events in Nelson Mandela Bay (NMB), South Africa, to enhance the destination image and induce stakeholder engagement. In this study, 3659 residents of NMB either completed an online questionnaire or a face-to-face interview. The results indicate that the residents of NMB have a positive attitude to cultural events. Notably, the demographic profile of the respondents is representative of the country and may be transferred to a national level to assist the South African tourism industry. The findings clarify insights to the market needs and cultural differences that may be used to tailor unique selling propositions in culturally diverse destinations.     

Inferring commercial vehicle activities in Gauteng, South Africa

To address the underreporting of freight from a transport geography point of view, we present a novel analysis of the time and spatial characteristics of disaggregated commercial vehicle activities. The activities were extracted from raw global positioning system (GPS) data collected in South Africa over a six-month period for more than 30,000 commercial vehicles. The analyses of the activity chains provide useful characteristics such as activity and chain durations, number of activities per chain, and the spatial extent of the activity chains. Key results indicate that about 60% of activity chains have between 5 and 15 activities per chain while 25% of the chains have 4 or less; 89% of the chains have a duration of 24 hours or less; and approximately 75% of all activities start between 08:00 and 17:00. The paper’s contribution is twofold: it firstly demonstrates a methodology to extract and evaluate vehicle activities and activity chains from raw GPS data. Novel results and characteristics about transport geographies in Gauteng, the economic centre of South Africa, are presented. We also report on the sensitivity of the analyses to certain parameters. Secondly, we introduce new metrics to evaluate a geographical area’s economic productivity based on commercial activity.     

Low-cost carriers versus full service carriers in ASEAN: The impact of liberalization policy on competition

This study analyses the ASEAN Single Aviation Market (ASAM) policy to be introduced by the end of 2015. We conduct a scenario study to estimate the impact of low-cost carrier (LCC) network expansion under liberalized air transport policies in the ASEAN region. Establishing joint ventures is a possible way for foreign carriers to expand the network in this region, even after starting ASAM. This is unique as joint ventures are not only subsidiaries of the full-service carriers, as is the case in the United States and Europe. We also apply a quantitative air transport market model to estimate the policy impact of the entry of new LCCs on routes from three ASEAN hub airports to Manila airport, which covers the impact on the whole network. The model produces several significant results, including that the entry of one LCC on one route may affect the fare, frequency, and profitability of related competitive routes for the entire network.     

Modelling the volatility of international visitor arrivals to New Zealand

International visitor arrivals are considered to be a major source of foreign exchange, tourism-related employment and other tourism-related activities. This study used SARIMAX/(E)GARCH volatility models to forecast visitor arrivals by air transport to New Zealand from its eight key tourist source markets (Australia, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea, Germany, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US)) and control macroeconomic factors together with global and regional structural changes. The empirical models reveal that the macroeconomic factors contributed at various levels to different markets, and the models we provided made accurate and reliable forecasts for visitor arrivals by air transport from all studied markets. The results from the markets for Germany, Japan, South Korea and the UK showed that significantly negative tourism demand shocks increased the volatility of tourism arrivals, more than positive tourism demand shocks of equal magnitude. Accordingly, the findings of this study will allow policy-makers in the New Zealand tourism sector and other stakeholders (e.g. airline management) to better understand the impacts on the volatility of visitor arrivals to New Zealand.     

An application of the airport service quality model in South Africa

Passengers’ expectations of service quality at airports are becoming increasingly important as air traffic grows. This research investigated passengers’ perceptions of airport service quality at O.R. Tambo International Airport, South Africa. An existing model placing the concept of passenger expectations central to measuring an airport’s specific level of performance was applied. The results proved significant in terms of the investment made by the airport in staff training and highlighted areas for improvement. The results show that business travellers and leisure travellers have different opinions regarding the importance of services offered by airports and of the level of performance at ORTIA in particular. Significant differences also occur in the perceptions of frequent travellers and infrequent travellers.     

The impact of rhino poaching on tourist experiences and future visitation to National Parks in South Africa

Wildlife tourism attracts substantial numbers of tourists worldwide with Africa as the major wildlife viewing destination earning the bulk of its tourism revenue from such tourism. Iconic animals, such as the rhino, are major attractions for tourists to South Africa who holds approximately 80% of the World’s rhino population. However, the rapid increase in rhino poaching activities has reached a crisis point and should the rate of poaching continue to increase Africa’s remaining rhino population will become extinct in the wild within 20 years. How this affects tourists and tourism is still largely unknown. This study shows evidence that rhino poaching and anti-poaching measures do impact tourism in the short term and could affect future visitation to Parks.     

The Role of the Public Sector in Rural Tourism: Respondents' Views

Using a four round Delphi survey, a focus group and semi-structured interviews, this study investigates the respondent perspective of the public sector role in providing an environment conducive to the development of the rural tourism sector in Britain and South Africa. Although South African respondents generally perceived a greater need of support for the rural tourism sector than did their British counterparts, many of the problems, concerns and frustrations that emerged from the study were similar. Respondents perceived the public sector as ‘leader’, ‘strategist’, ‘mentor’, ‘co-ordinator’, ‘champion’ and ‘partner’ in their endeavour to build the rural tourism sector. Grappling with the problems of uplifting the quality, viability and communal benefit of rural tourism is seen as a futile exercise if the facilitatory platform of rational policy, planning and support conducive to the sustainability of the sector, is not in place. Above all local authorities are seen as ‘the enabler’ of successful rural tourism projects that diversify the local economy and generate employment and entrepreneurial opportunities. However, whilst there is respondent acknowledgement of the role played by the public sector, there is evidence of widespread disenchantment with the efficacy with which this role is fulfilled.     

Regional aviation and economic growth: cointegration and causality analysis in Australia

Air transport is a critical link to regional, rural and remote communities in Australia. Air services provide important economic and social benefits but very little research has been done on assessing the value of regional aviation. This research provides the first empirical evidence that there is short and long run causality between regional aviation and economic growth. The authors analysed 88 regional airports in Australia over a period of 1985–86 to 2010–11 to determine the catalytic impacts of regional air transport on regional economic growth. The analysis was conducted using annual data related to total airport passenger movements – for the level of airport activity, and real aggregate taxable income – to represent economic growth. A significant bi-directional relationship was established: airports have an impact on regional economic growth and the economy directly impacts regional air transport. The economic significance of regional air transport confirms the importance of the airport as infrastructure for regional councils and the need for them to maintain and develop local airports. Funding should be targeted at airports directly to support regional development.