The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries

Hysteresis (unit root) of the current account, fiscal balance, and investment shares is found for the majority of industrial countries as well as selected emerging and transition economies between 1970 and 2001. Twin deficits are defined as a positive long-run relationship between the current account and the fiscal balance. The paper provides evidence for twin deficits in several countries, although we can see differences between the 1980s and the 1990s. Investment in some EU countries is financed to a relatively high degree at the international financial markets implying that the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle is less important in the EU.     

能源效率、二氧化碳排放效率与经济增长的关系分析

本文运用协整理论和误差修正模型,对世界和中国1971-2007年的能源效率、1960-2007年的CO2排放效率以及相应年度的GDP数据进行分析。结果表明,世界的CO2排放效率和GDP之间存在协整关系,中国的能源效率和GDP之间存在协整关系,且GDP是能源效率的Granger原因,从短期来看,GDP与能源效率呈正相关关系。     

The role of fiscal policies for external imbalances: Evidence from the European Union

We revisit the relation between budget deficits and current account deficits for 28 European Union countries from 1996 to 2019. We find that an increase in budget deficit of 1 pp of GDP results in a deterioration of the current account deficit of 0.318 pp of GDP, which supports the Twin Deficits Hypothesis. On the other hand, dynamic panel estimates partially corroborate the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis in the presence of a fiscal rules index. In addition: i) the relation between the two deficits is asymmetric and the negative impact of the recent Eurozone banking and sovereign debt crisis on the current account balance is observed; ii) with right-wing governments, the impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is mitigated; if the government is on the left, the impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is amplified; iii) after 2010, the budget balance positively affects the current account balance; and iv) the positive impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is higher in the cases of non-Eurozone countries, high budget deficit countries, and low exports countries, whereas it is lower in the cases of Eurozone countries, low budget deficit countries, and high exports countries.     

Growth, debt and public infrastructure

This paper presents a closed economy model of endogenous growth driven by capital externalities arising from both private capital and public infrastructure. The model is calibrated to fit data for India, an approximately closed economy. Simulations suggest that fiscal policy certainly matters and the choice of the income taxation rate, the mix of government spending between infrastructure and public consumption goods, and the long-run government debt/GDP ratio can all significantly affect the long-run growth rate. Intertemporal aspects of fiscal policy are also important and the precommitment (time-inconsistent) and non-precommitment policies differ substantially.     

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the Malaysia-China commodity trade

Previous research that considered the response of the trade balance between Malaysia and China to exchange rate changes used a linear model and did not find any significant long-run link. Suspecting that the results suffer from aggregation bias as well as ignoring nonlinear adjustment of the exchange rate, we consider the trade balance of 59 industries that trade between the two countries and use a nonlinear ARDL model to show that almost a third of the industries are affected by ringgit depreciation against the yuan, in an asymmetric manner. The largest industry, which accounts for more than 25% of the trade, is found to benefit from ringgit depreciation while not being hurt by appreciation. In total, 15 industries that account for 40% of the trade enjoy this property.     

Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States

General equilibrium models that include policy rules for government spending, lump-sum transfers, and distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on consumption expenditures are fit to US data under rich specifications of fiscal policy rules to obtain several results. First, the best-fitting model allows many fiscal instruments to respond to debt. Second, responses of aggregates to fiscal policy shocks under rich rules vary considerably from responses where only non-distortionary fiscal instruments finance debt. Third, in the short run, all fiscal instruments except labor taxes react strongly to debt, but long-run intertemporal financing comes from all components of the government’s budget constraint. Fourth, debt-financed fiscal shocks trigger long-lasting dynamics; short-run and long-run multipliers can differ markedly.     

The relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth: quantile panel-type analysis

This paper samples the data of 138 countries during the 1971–2007 period, and performs an empirical test to validate the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth. It first performs panel data analysis and quantile regression analysis to estimate the long-run elasticity relationships, and then analyzes the short-run error correction model to verify the causal relationship between the two. The empirical results indicate the following. (1) The long-run relationship between global carbon dioxide emissions and GDP is stable, with 32.6% of the sampled countries showing cross-coupling of the two (with an elasticity value of greater than 1), 47.1% reporting relative-decoupling (with an elasticity value between 0 and 1), and 20.3% seeing absolute-decoupling (with an elasticity value of smaller than 0). (2) The quantile regression shows that long-run elasticity declines along with the rise of carbon dioxide emission quantiles. In other words, cross-coupling turns into relative-decoupling. (3) The analysis of short-run panel data and quantile regressions mostly support the feedback relationship between carbon dioxide emissions growth and economic growth. This is consistent with the hypothesis developed by Kuznets. (4) According to the results of the quantile regression, the higher the quantiles, the faster and more stable of the short-run error-correction mechanism of the adjustments from short-run disequilibrium to long-run equilibrium. (5) Under the low-quantile carbon dioxide emissions growth and economic growth, the relationship between these two is not stable of the short-run disequilibrium adjustments in the error-correction adjustment process. However, the relationship between these two is steady and feedback in the case of high quantiles. Therefore, the first priority to combat global warming is to focus on the countries with high economic growth and high carbon dioxide emissions growth.     

Prioritization of government expenditure on health in India: A fiscal space perspective

Unequal distribution of fiscal resources and lower prioritization of budget towards healthcare are the most important challenges in achieving universal health coverage in India. This study has examined relationships between government health expenditure and fiscal space (i.e. tax revenue, non-tax revenue, fiscal transfer, and borrowings) in twenty-one states of India for the period of 1980–2014. Our panel regression results imply that mobilization of tax revenue has a positive impact, while borrowings have a negative impact on the allocation of government expenditure on healthcare in the long-run. The panel quantile regression results show that states associated with the low and middle level of revenue growth have been mobilizing finance through central government transfer and borrowings in short-run. Further, the panel vector error correction models show that sum of the lagged coefficients of borrowings have a greater impact on health financing process as compared to other sources of fiscal space at short-run, and the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium is relatively slower. The overall analysis concludes that less domestic revenue mobilization and higher dependency of borrowings for healthcare financing may create fiscal stress on state finances in the long-run, and thereby it could possibly reduce the prioritization of spending. Therefore, improvement in revenue growth and proper utilization of fiscal transfer would be appropriate policy implications from this study.     

Economic growth,volatility and their interaction: What’s the role of finance?

This paper examines the relation between financial depth and the interaction of economic growth and its volatility. We use a sample of 52 countries for the period 1980–2011, and our main finding is that, at moderate levels of financial depth, further deepening increases the ratio of average growth to volatility; however, as financial depth increases, this relation reverts, and the rise in volatility overcomes that of economic growth. This result is obtained both in the medium and long run; however, the peak of the relation seems to be lower in the medium run (around 40%–55% of domestic credit/GDP) than in the long run (around 75%–99%). This suggests that increasing the level of domestic credit may intensify relative volatility in the medium term, but still raise relative long-term growth before the long-run threshold is achieved.     

Current account and real effective exchange rate misalignments in Central Eastern EU countries: An update using the macroeconomic balance approach

We make an assessment of the current account and price competitiveness of the Central Eastern European countries that joined the EU, using data up to 2016. Foreign capital flows, fiscal balance and relative output growth seem to play a crucial role in explaining the current account balance. The real effective exchange rate gaps behave in accord with the current account misalignments, which clearly display cyclical behaviour. When foreign direct investments are introduced as a determinant, the misalignments are larger in boom periods (positive misalignments), whereas the negative misalignments are smaller in magnitude. Overall, the countries have moved closer to their equilibria since 2010.     

The impact of value added components of GDP and FDI on economic freedom in Europe

This paper investigates the possibility of a long-run relationship between the Economic Freedom Index (EFI), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and value added components of GDP in thirty Eastern, Central and Western European countries. The study further examines whether the FDI and sector-specific components of GDP have any significant impact on economic freedom for these countries. We use annual data and employ Pedroni and KAO panel cointegration analyses to assess the long-run relationships. The results indicate that there is a significant long-run relationship between the variables under study. Moreover, the evidence shows that the service and industry value added components positively affect EFI, while the agriculture value added component has a negative effect on EFI. However, contrary to the prior literature, we observe a marginally significant and negative relationship between EFI and FDI in the random effects model.     

THE UK'S PERSISTENT TRADE DEFICIT

The UK current account deficit reached a peak in excess of £20bn in 1989, equivalent to 4 per cent of GDP. In the next two years, as recession took its toll of domestic spending, it shrank quickly - on the latest data the deficit was only £4.4bn last year, 3/4 per cent of nominal GDP. Over the same period the trade gap narrowed front £25bn to £10bn, in each case taking the deficit back to the levels of 1987, before the late 1980s' boom really got under way. Since 1989, therefore, both 011 trade and the current account, there has been a significant reduction in the external deficit. Yet it remains the case that, despite the length of the recession - non-oil GDP has fallen for six successive quarters - the current account is still in deficit. Moreover, despite there being no concrete data to point to the beginnings of recovery, the shortfall is widening. The low point was the second quarter of last year, with a rare current surplus recorded in June, since when the trade deficit has steadily widened again as the consequence primarily of a 5.5per cent increase in the volume of imports over the last 12 months. Why is it that, in contrast with the experience in the 1980-81 downturn, this recession has not produced a trade or even a current account surplus? Does this mean that the recovery, when it does come, will inevitably widen the deficit with the possible consequence that ‘balance of payments problems’ will undermine the pound inside the ERM? We conclude that, while it is disappointing that UK producers have not managed to claw back more of the domestic market - in contrast with the experience of exporters in world markets - our forecast of a current account deficit of 0–2 per cent of GDP should be relatively easily financed and will riot therefore cause serious problem for economic policy. This conclusion would riot necessarily hold if the recovery occurs more rapidly than we expect arid sucks in a greater volume of imports. It may be the case that the UK will continue to run a current deficit with Japan in particular as the counterpart to ongoing Japanese direct investment in this country.     

Fiscal deficits and current account deficits

Recent fiscal stimulus packages depend for their effectiveness on the assumption of non-Ricardian savings behavior. We show that, under the same assumption, higher fiscal deficits can have problematic implications if they turn out to be permanent. First, if they occur in large countries they significantly raise the world real interest rate. Second, they cause a short run current account deterioration equal to around 50% of the fiscal deficit deterioration. Third, the longer run current account deterioration equals almost 75% for a large economy such as the United States, and almost 100% for a small open economy.     

The impact of fiscal positions on government bond yields in CEE countries

This paper investigates the influence of government debt and primary balance on long-term government bond yields in 10 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in the period 2000–2013. The results indicate that a one percentage point increase in the stock of government debt is associated with an increase in government bond yields of 2.7–4 basis points, while a one percentage point increase in the primary deficit to GDP ratio is associated with an increase in government bond yields of 12.9–24.3 basis points. We also find evidence of non-linearities in the debt-interest rate relationship, whereby the threshold after which the impact of debt turns from negative to positive is significantly lower than in advanced economies.     

An empirical analysis of the nexus between external balance and government budget balance: The case of the GIIPS countries

The present study investigates the causality relationship between the external (trade and current account) balance and government budget balance for five countries of the euro area's Mezzogiorno, namely Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. These countries, due to their weak economic and financial performances, have been labelled the GIIPS group. The analysis is implemented using two methodologies: the traditional Granger test and the approach developed by Toda–Yamamoto. The results reveal homogeneity in using both approaches and give support to the Ricardian theory, according to which there is no clear nexus between budget-current account balances and budget-trade balances. This implies that fiscal austerity could help the five peripheral countries to conform to the budget deficit criteria as established by the Stability and Growth Pact, but would not be effective in restraining external deficits.     

Growth,deficits and uncertainty: Theoretical aspects and empirical evidence from a panel of 27 countries

We examine the relationship between fiscal deficits and per-capita income growth in a panel of 27 European countries, allowing for perceived risks, in terms of fiscal sustainability, associated with additional government spending. Such risks are proxied by the conditional variability of manufacturing production and stock market returns and by the unconditional variability of two survey-based economic-sentiment indicators. To help clarifying how fiscal variables impact on growth and to provide a point of reference for the interpretation of the empirical results a structural growth model is first identified. We find evidence of an asymmetric relationship, in that fiscal deficits give rise to adverse growth effects if they coincide with high uncertainty regarding the prospects of the economy and no significant negative growth effects in the low-uncertainty case.     

Long-run and short-run determinants of sovereign bond yields in advanced economies

We analyze determinants of sovereign bond yields in 22 advanced economies over the 1980–2010 period using panel cointegration techniques. The application of the cointegration methodology allows distinguishing between long-run (debt-to-GDP ratio, potential growth) and short-run (inflation, short-term interest rates, etc.) determinants of sovereign borrowing costs. We find that in the long run, government bond yields increase by about 2 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in government debt-to-GDP ratio and by about 45 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in the potential growth rate. In the short run, sovereign bond yields deviate from the level determined by the long-run fundamentals, but about half of the deviation adjusts in one year. When considering the impact of the global financial crisis on sovereign borrowing costs in euro area countries, the estimations suggest that spreads against Germany in some European periphery countries exceeded the level determined by fundamentals in the aftermath of the crisis, while some North European countries have benefited from “safe-haven” flows.     

Forecast Summary

Half way through 1991, there is still no firm evidence that a recovery is under way, though equally the recession does not appear to be worsening. This suggests that the economy is close to a turning point, bumping along the bottom, and that a recovery should begin in the second half. For the year as a whole we expect GDP to fall 2 percent followed by only a modest 1.5 per cent growth in 1992. Unemployment is likely to rise for at least another 12 months, reaching a peak of 2.8 million. The reduction in inflation and the trade deficit are continuing. By the end of the year retail price inflation is likely to be below 4 per cent and for 1991 as a whole the current account deficit should be around 1 per cent of GDP, well down from the 1989 peak of 4 per cent.     

Fiscal policy options ahead of the Autumn Statement

• In our view the case for a fiscal stimulus is incontrovertible. The vote to leave the EU has dampened the outlook for growth, while there is limited scope for monetary policy to offer more support. The existing fiscal plans will exert a sizeable drag on growth and with borrowing costs so low, there is a strong case for relaxing the squeeze.
• Scenarios run on the Oxford Global Model suggest that raising capital spending by 1% of GDP in each of the next two fiscal years could boost GDP growth by 0.7% a year over that period. We also find that the package would, in some respects, pay for itself, with the public sector net debt‐to‐GDP ratio peaking at a lower level. The main bar to this package would be whether there are sufficient ‘shovel ready’ projects available.
• Political considerations might encourage the government to opt instead for packages geared towards boosting current spending – perhaps on the NHS – or cutting taxes. But our modelling suggests that this would offer a smaller boost to activity and would also generate poorer fiscal outcomes than an infrastructure‐led package.
• While the case for a stimulus package is very strong, our expectations for delivery are fairly low. The Conservatives have enjoyed electoral success on the back of a strong austerity message and suggestions that they might loosen fiscal policy appear to be aimed at averting a worst‐case scenario, rather than a conviction that this would be a positive policy to boost both short‐ and long‐term growth prospects. So if the economic data remains firm, the prospects of a sizeable stimulus package will recede. And if a package is implemented, the temptation to favour crowd‐pleasing tax cuts over higher investment may prove to be irresistible. Therefore, we view a large, infrastructure‐focused, stimulus package as an upside risk to our forecast, not a core assumption.

     

资本项目开放对经常项目的影响——基于中国经验的实证分析(1982～2004)

本文基于资本项目对经常项目影响机制分析的基础上,采用时间序列计量技术,在经常项目、资本项目、实际汇率和GDP等4个变量框架内实证分析了中国资本项目变动对经常项目的影响.结果显示,4个变量之间存在长期的协整关系,资本项目、实际汇率和GDP是经常项目的Granger因,资本项目顺差的扩大和实际汇率的贬值导致经常项目盈余增加,GDP的增加会减少经常项目顺差.其政策含义在于,可通过对资本项目等有关宏观经济变量的控制来有效地调节我国经常项目收支状况.