Exogenous cash: testing financing constraints on inventory investment using dynamic panels with additional information from annual reports

In spite of the literature’s great interests in firms’ financing constraints on investment, the endogeneity problem between investment and cash flow have long plagued the empirical endeavor. To avoid the problem, we use firms’ nonoperating income, which is shown to be exogenous to profitability, both as a direct measure of liquidity and as an instrumental variable to control for the endogeneity problem of cash flow. Estimation results do not support the financing constraint hypothesis. We also conduct a narrative analysis on firms’ Annual Reports to identify factors causing inventory reduction. We find that accounting adjustments and decreases in market demand are two important factors in investment disinvestment, and financial difficulty does not play an important role in this regard.     

苏州市中小企业转型升级时期融资问题研究

"融资难"一直是中小企业在转型升级过程中的瓶颈。苏州作为全国中小企业的重镇,近年来在国际经济环境疲软的背景下,部分中小企业也出现了增速放缓,效益滑落的现象。苏州市政府为解决中小企业融资难,作出了巨大的努力,制定了空前的扶持政策,但是据调研显示,中小企业业主依然普遍感觉到融资难,中小企业发展的资金依然大部分来源于民间借贷。转型升级是中小企业生存发展下去的必由之路,政府在中小企业转型升级的过程中应扮演着领路人和支持者的角色,加大扶持力度,整合银行,投资机构,社会力量等多种资源,帮助中小企业渡过难关,踏上新的发展平台。     

Liquidity creation and bank profitability

This paper examines the effect of liquidity creation on bank profitability. Using a panel of US banks, we find that liquidity creation is associated with higher profitability. This result holds during normal times and the financial crisis, and for banks of different sizes. When we decompose liquidity creation into its individual components, we find that liability-side and off-balance sheet liquidity creation are positively related to profitability, while asset-side liquidity creation is negatively related to profitability.     

Impact of Basel III liquidity regulations on U.S. Bank performance in different conditional profitability spectrums

We study the impact of the Basel III liquidity constraints, represented by the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and the net stable funding ratio (NSFR), on bank profitability, by employing the simultaneous quantile regression framework with time fixed effects. We find a positive and significant relationship between the LCR and profitability and the NSFR and profitability over most quantiles. However, the small magnitudes of the coefficients on LCR and NSFR across all quantiles of profitability suggest that LCR and NSFR have a minor quantitative impact on bank profitability. We then test and find that the Basel III liquidity constraints have a significantly different impact on banks with very low profits compared to banks who enjoy high profitability, emphasizing the need to use a quantile approach. We plot the coefficients to illustrate the impact of liquidity constraints across different conditional profitability spectrums. Lastly, we find that small banks are more vulnerable to short term liquidity risks (LCR) and big banks are more susceptible to medium to long term liquidity risks (NSFR). This suggests that considerations should be given to tailoring liquidity regulations based on the bank size and the relative bank profitability. The quantitatively small impact of the constraints suggest that Basel III has successfully set liquidity requirements to minimize the impact on bank profitability and the likelihood of an industry-wide liquidity crisis.     

Capital Market Imperfections, Uncertainty and Corporate Investment in the Czech Republic

In this study we examine private investment behavior of firms in the Czech Republic. A special feature of the study is that the investment equations include variables which may give some more insights into the role of capital market imperfections as well as the effect of uncertainty. Our results find support for the accelerator model. We find evidence for cash-flow effects on Czech corporate investment. It is striking that indeed smaller longer privatized firms face relatively less cash flow restrictions. Financial structure doesn't matter as much as we expected. We find that smaller firms react positively to more uncertainty.     

上市公司财务能力与持续现金股利政策的实证分析——基于沪深A股数据

本文以1999年￣2004年连续派发现金股利的沪深A股上市公司为样本,分析了上市公司盈利能力、长期偿债能力、获取现金能力和发展能力对持续现金股利政策的影响程度。研究结果表明:在持续现金股利政策下,上市公司实现的盈利约有40%作为现金股利派发给了股东;而上市公司长期偿债能力、获取现金能力和发展能力对其持续现金股利政策无显著影响。     

Do adjustment costs explain investment-cash flow insensitivity?

In this paper, I explain two “puzzles” that have been observed in firm level data. First, firms that display a high sensitivity of investment to cash flow (commonly believed to be an indicator of liquidity constraints) usually have large unutilized lines of credit which, presumably, could be used to overcome the shortage of funds. Second, firms that are perceived to be extremely liquidity constrained actually show very little sensitivity of investment to cash flow.I show how a dynamic model of firm investment with liquidity constraints and non-convex costs of adjustment of capital can explain these facts. These two features together imply that firms need to have a certain threshold level of financial resources before they can afford to increase investment. Once they cross this threshold, firms’ investment will be positively correlated with their financial resources until they reach their desired level of capital stock. However, even if investment is sensitive to cash flow, firms may borrow below their credit limit to guard against future bankruptcy or binding liquidity constraints.     

Modeling the unintended consequences of short selling for innovation investment

We develop an innovation investment decision model for firms facing a short selling threat. We find that an endogenous agency problem may arise as an unintended consequence of short selling under the prevailing compensation structure. Specifically, the manager has strong incentives to seek better compensation at the expense of decreasing firm value by reducing long-term innovation investment to save cash reserves to protect the short-term price because the manager’s compensation is closely tied to this value. Finally, our model predicts that both the lending supply and short selling will induce the manager to underinvest and have a negative effect on firm value and the manager’s private benefit because they exacerbate agency conflicts.     

Credit risk of subsidiaries of foreign banks in CEE countries: Impacts of the parent bank and home country economic environment

In this study, using dynamic panel data, we investigated the influences of the home country economic environment and parent bank condition on the credit risk of foreign banks in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. We concentrated on the international transmission of credit risk through the internal capital market of multinational banks. Our theoretical assumptions follow studies that document how the parent bank condition and home country macroeconomic environment affect lending in subsidiaries in CEE countries. However, our results go one step further. We provide evidence that these relationships are reflected in subsidiaries’ credit risk in CEE countries. Our results suggest that the size and profitability of the parent bank have negative influences, while the liquidity and credit risk of the parent bank have positive influences on the subsidiaries’ credit risk. Moreover, the GDP growth in the parent bank’s country has a negative effect on the credit risk of the subsidiary, while the lending rate and liquidity in the parent bank country cause growth in the credit risk. These results indicate a new channel of international risk transfer from parent bank countries to host countries through foreign-owned banks.     

Corporate returns and cash conversion cycles

This study examines the relationship between profitability measures and management of ongoing liquidity needs for a large cross-section of firms over a twenty-year period. Long-run equilibrium relationships between the cash conversion cycle, a measure of ongoing liquidity management, and alternative measures of profitability are tested using both nonparametric and multiple regression analysis. Industry and size differences are controlled. While there are exceptions to the general finding for specific firms and for specific industries, the paper offers strong evidence that aggressive working-capital policies enhance profitability.     

Default rates in the loan market for SMEs: Evidence from Slovakia

Financial markets in emerging economies are often perceived as more risky than those in developed countries. We investigate whether this is true for loans to SMEs using a unique unbalanced panel of nearly 700 loans made to SMEs in Slovakia between 2000 and 2005. Several probit and panel probit models show that liquidity and profitability factors are important determinants of SME defaults. Moreover, we find that indebtedness significantly increases the probability of default. Liability as proxied by the legal form of SMEs has important incentive effects. Finally, there exist significant differences between sectors. We show that default rates and factors converged to values found in developed financial markets.     

Default risk and private student loans: Implications for higher education policies

In recent years, the proportion of students facing a binding constraint on government student loans has grown. This has led to substantially increased use of private loans as a supplementary source of finance for households׳ higher education investment. A critical aspect of the private market for student loans is that loan terms must reflect students׳ risk of default. College investment will therefore differ from a world in which government student loans, whose terms are not sensitive to credit risk, are expanded to no longer bind. Moreover, beyond simply crowding out private lending, expansions of the government student loan program will feed back into default risk on private loans. The goal of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the likely effects of the private market for student loans on college enrollment. We build a model of college investment that reflects uninsured idiosyncratic risk and a well-defined life-cycle that is consistent with observed borrowing and default behavior across family income and college preparedness. We find that higher government borrowing limits increase college investment but lead to more default in the private market for student loans, while tuition subsides increase college investment and reduce default rates in the private market. Consequently, higher limits on government student loans have small negative welfare effects, while tuition subsidies increase aggregate welfare.     

Pension Funding Constraints and Corporate Expenditures*

This paper examines the impact of a company's pension contributions (PCs) on its dividend and investment policies. The effects of shocks to cash flows on these corporate expenditures are identified by changes to pension funding regulations. Using a sample of DB pension schemes in FTSE350 UK‐listed firms we find a strong negative relation between PCs and corporate dividends even after controlling for the correlation between funding status and unobserved investment opportunities. We find that the more stringent funding requirements under the Pensions Act 2004 had a more pronounced effect on both dividend and investment sensitivities to PCs.     

Economic policy uncertainty and illiquidity return premium

In this study, we examine the relation between the price of liquidity, or illiquidity return premium, and the economic policy uncertainty (EPU). On average, an illiquid portfolio earns a 0.597% higher monthly return than a liquid portfolio. The results further show that the EPU index has a positive relationship with the illiquidity return premium. This indicates that investors require higher compensation for holding illiquid stocks when there is a higher economic uncertainty. We also show that EPU affects the illiquidity return premium through the market illiquidity channel. The rise of EPU could increase the risk of illiquid stocks and make investors more risk-averse, thereby requiring higher compensation for illiquidity. Finally, it is found that the relationship between EPU and the illiquidity return premium is stronger when market liquidity is impaired and during crises.     

Investment committees and corporate cash holdings

We investigate the association between the voluntary formation of a board investment committee (IC) and corporate cash holdings for a large sample of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) firms over the 2005–2013 period. We provide evidence that the existence of a specialized IC increases corporate cash holdings. We also find that several IC characteristics, i.e., member experience, independence, number of meetings, and committee size, are associated with an increase in firms’ cash holdings. Furthermore, the local and foreign institutional ownership of GCC firms moderates the IC-cash holdings relationship. These results remain robust to alternative specifications of cash holdings and endogeneity tests. We contribute to the literature on firms’ incentives to hold cash and to the literature on governance in emerging market contexts.     

股价崩盘风险、信息环境与企业现金调整

以我国2009—2016年沪深上市公司数据为样本,探究了股价崩盘风险、信息环境对企业现金调整的影响。研究发现：股价崩盘风险越大,企业现金调整速度越快,且这种正相关关系对于分析师跟踪数量较少、机构投资者持股比例少的企业而言更为显著。进一步考察股权性质在企业现金调整速度中的影响,发现国有企业与民营企业面对股价崩盘风险的现金调整速度并不具有显著差异,但是对于民营企业而言,更多的分析师跟踪和机构投资者持股将显著降低企业应对股价崩盘风险的现金调整速度,信息环境对于国有企业的作用并不显著。     

Spatial analysis of liquidity risk in China

This study investigates the interaction of liquidity risk in Chinese banks through a spatial econometric method that includes geographical and economic relations. The former is defined as sharing the same border, and the latter considers both bank type and lending behavior. We find evidence of liquidity spillovers through varying spatial dependence based on geographical and economic closeness within banks. The results highlight the importance of liquidity management and provide evidence of risk co-movement for regulators taking a new viewpoint on liquidity regulation.     

Environmental and Firm Level Influences on Inter‐Organizational Trust and SME Performance

We investigate the effects of focal firm knowledge intensity and uncertainty on inter‐organizational trust and subsequent performance of small and medium size enterprises (SMEs). We integrate the trust literature with transaction cost literature as both of these offer partial explanations of the dynamics of inter‐organizational trust in the context of an SME. We propose that knowledge intensity of the focal firm will have a positive relationship while uncertainty will have a negative relationship with inter‐organizational trust in an exchange relationship. Further, we propose a positive relationship between trust and SME performance, which will be contingent on the level of external and internal uncertainty faced by the focal firm. Empirical evidence, based on the survey data of 565 German SMEs, mostly supports our arguments.     

投资现金流敏感性研究述评

大量的经验文献支持了流动性假说,认为内部现金流是影响公司投资的一个重要因素。文中基于信息不对称下的融资约束理论与自由现金流的代理成本假说,回顾了关于投资现金流敏感性存在及其根源的国内外相关研究成果,梳理了该领域的研究脉络,并对主要结论进行了总结与评论。对文献研究发现,大多数研究均证实了投资与现金流之间具有较强的敏感性,但挖掘这种敏感性的根源却尚未达成一致的结论。尤其随着股权结构的引入,考虑到管理层内部持股的激励与堑壕效应、股权集中下控股股东的监督与侵占效应,该领域的研究纷繁复杂。但基于股权结构的研究是揭示这种敏感性的根源、探索非效率投资治理机制的有效途径。     

基于层次分析法的土地储备方案的风险评估

多年来,随着我国土地储备制度的实施,全国土地储备项目也逐渐增多,金融行业支持土地储备的贷款渠道也迅猛发展。但由于土地市场的不确定性,土地储备也存在着一定风险,即当土地市场疲软时,极易因所收储的土地无法变现而导致金融风险的集中爆发。为此,文中针对土地储备风险进行研究分析,并建立数学模型进行风险评估。为对各项目方案进行风险评估,文中建立风险评估指数模型,利用该模型计算出风险评估指数wi,wi越大,代表该项目风险越大。研究发现,敏感性指标、项目投资总额估算和银行批复额度对风险评估指数的影响相对较大。