金融素养是否降低了家庭金融脆弱性?

金融素养对家庭金融脆弱性的影响具有不确定性,既可能通过增加家庭的资产和收入,降低家庭金融脆弱性;也可能通过增加家庭的负债与支出,提升家庭金融脆弱性。本文首先从金融知识、金融行为、金融态度三个维度测算金融素养,再基于"资不抵债"、"入不敷出"两个维度量化家庭金融脆弱性,最后构建实证模型,以CFPS（2014）为样本,量化分析金融素养对家庭金融脆弱性的影响。实证研究表明：金融素养的增加显著降低家庭金融脆弱性及"资不抵债"的概率;在金融素养的三个维度中,金融知识降低金融脆弱性、缓解资不抵债的作用更为显著。     

数字普惠金融与小微企业出口:雪中送炭还是锦上添花

本文将数字普惠金融与小微企业出口相结合,为深入探讨数字金融的普惠意义提供了新视角。我们基于数字普惠金融指数和中国小微企业调查数据,构建一个广义双重差分回归模型进行经验分析,经过一系列内生性处理后,回归结果稳健地显示数字普惠金融发展可显著促进小微企业出口。机制分析结果表明,数字普惠金融会促进生产率更低的企业出口,并改善小微企业的营运资本使用效率。此外,数字普惠金融覆盖广度比使用深度和数字化程度对小微企业出口的影响更大。高资金负担、弱政企关系以及西部地区的小微企业受益更大,这是雪中送炭的表现;而在金融软环境更好的地区小微企业受益更多,则是锦上添花的表现。     

数字普惠金融的创业效应与收入不平等:数字鸿沟还是数字红利？

数字普惠金融与实体经济之间的关系受到学界广泛关注,但其究竟是普惠的数字红利还是金融领域的数字鸿沟,这是数字普惠金融快速发展中亟需回答的重要理论与现实问题。文章通过匹配宏观统计数据和微观调查数据,实证研究了数字普惠金融的发展对收入不平等的影响,并从创业效应这一渠道进行了机制分析。研究发现：数字普惠金融的发展总体上改善了收入不平等状况,而数字普惠金融的创业效应是影响收入不平等的重要渠道之一。进一步的中介效应分析表明,数字普惠金融的创业效应对收入不平等的影响存在异质性：数字普惠金融通过促进生存型创业从而改善了收入不平等,而数字普惠金融对机会型创业的促进却在一定程度上扩大了收入不平等。文章的研究结论对于理解数字普惠金融发展的正外部性以及如何缓解收入不平等提供了新的视角。     

金融普惠可以提高减贫质量吗?——基于多维贫困的分析

切实提高减贫质量对我国打赢打好脱贫攻坚战和守住脱贫成果至关重要。金融普惠作为当前我国金融改革和脱贫攻坚的重要举措,是否有助于提高减贫质量仍是有待回答的问题。文章基于中国家庭金融调查2015年数据,从多维贫困和多维贫困脆弱性两方面出发研究了金融普惠对我国农村减贫质量的影响。研究发现,金融普惠可以同时降低农村家庭多维贫困和多维贫困脆弱性,并且对多维贫困问题严重的农村家庭有更大的作用;区分不同贫困和不同金融服务发现,金融普惠可以显著降低收入贫困、教育贫困及生活质量贫困,对健康贫困的影响则不显著;银行营业网点与金融服务点渗透、以及储蓄、贷款、保险及数字金融服务使用可以提高减贫质量,而其他金融机构渗透、信用卡使用及银行服务评价的作用相对有限。进一步地,文章研究了金融普惠减贫质量效应的环境条件,发现村庄市场及制度环境和家庭需求环境改善有助于充分发挥金融普惠的积极作用,相反则可能构成一定的制约。最后,文章检验了金融普惠的影响机制,发现促进农村家庭人力与物质资本积累、以及地区经济发展等在其中发挥了重要的中介作用。文章结论为我国提高减贫质量提供了可靠的政策工具,同时也可促进我国全面建成小康社会和经济实现高质量发展。     

The impact of financial development on the effectiveness of inflation targeting in developing economies

An ever-increasing number of developing economies with varied levels of financial development have adopted Inflation Targeting (IT) frameworks to guide monetary policy. Using a panel dataset of 54 developing economies over the period 1980 to 2015 (30 of which have IT frameworks), we re-visit the rather controversial issue of whether adoption of an IT framework leads to superior outcomes in terms of reducing inflation and its variability. After controlling for potential endogeneity and self-selection concerns of policy adoption, our main empirical finding is that IT frameworks appear to reduce inflation rates in developing economies regardless of the level of financial development, while it reduces variability of inflation rates only when we control for levels of financial market development. We further find that the effectiveness of IT framework on inflation is highly dependent on financial inclusion and bank characteristics, while the effect on inflation variability is more associated with components of capital market development.     

Financial Development,Financial Structure,and the Growth Effect of Monetary Policy: International Evidence

This paper investigates how financial development and financial structure affect the growth effect of monetary policy using panel data from 49 countries over the period 1980–2014. We find robust evidence that financial development has a significantly negative impact on the growth effect of monetary policy. We also find that the growth effect of monetary policy tends to be more pronounced as the financial structure of a country becomes more market-based. These results not only add interesting new evidence to the recent literature on the growth effects of monetary policy, but also provide some important insights into the financial determinants of monetary policy effects on economic growth, which have largely been ignored in the previous literature.     

国际金融危机背景下的金融交易税:从理论到实践

国际金融危机席卷全球之后,金融交易税重新受到高度关注,各国陆续提出了若干种实施方案。本文首先回顾了当前国际金融危机下的全球经济走势及各国提出金融交易税的宏观经济背景,其次阐述了金融交易税理论的内涵及效应,并结合国内外关于金融交易税的各类研究探讨交易税如何影响金融市场的有效性和稳定性。论文不仅比较了历史上各国征收金融交易税的经验及效果,而且估计了调整证券交易印花税对中国股市的实际影响。最后,分析了国际上开征金融交易税的可行性,并就中国金融交易税的方案提出政策建议。     

How does the US credit crisis affect the Asia–Pacific economies?—Analysis based on a general equilibrium model

The current financial crisis differs from most post-war recessions in that the balance sheets of both households and banks have been severely damaged, which could lead to structural changes in the behavior of households. Therefore, it may exert some far-reaching effects on regional economies in the short run as well as in the medium term. This paper studies these effects using a multi-country dynamic structural model. In the short run, the US credit crisis weighs heavily upon the Asia–Pacific economies through financial linkages in addition to the traditional trade channel due to the deepening global financial integration. The relative importance of various financial channels differs notably across economies. While stock market contagion is more important for advanced economies, flight to quality across borders plays a key role in less developed economies. From a medium-term perspective, changes in the US household behavior caused by the credit crisis can help correct global imbalances, but the effectiveness hinges largely upon how long US households can maintain a reasonably higher savings rate. In addition, although the declining American public savings rate may not exert material impacts on the global imbalances, it can darken regional growth prospects due to a potentially higher world real interest rate.     

The Impact of Financial and Tax Reporting Incentives on Option Grants to Canadian CEOs*

This study explores the effects of financial and tax reporting incentives on options granted to chief executive officers in Canada. Extant studies with a similar objective (Yermack 1995; Matsunaga 1995) explore predominantly nonqualified U.S. option grants that are deductible to the extent that the options are in the money at the time of exercise. In contrast, Canadian firms do not get a tax deduction for their stock option grants at any time. In both countries, no expense is recorded for financial reporting purposes. As a result, the financial reporting and tax reporting trade‐off is more pronounced in the Canadian setting of this study compared with the U.S. setting. We measure option granting behavior as the ratio of the Black‐Scholes value of stock option grants to the sum of cash compensation and the value of stock option grants. Using a sample of 806 firm‐year observations during the period 1993‐95, we find that observed option grants are significantly correlated with proxies for short‐run financial reporting incentives. We also find evidence that option granting behavior is correlated with proxies for tax incentives.     

Financial literacy and remittance behavior of skilled and unskilled immigrant groups in Australia

Studies of financial literacy show that many people are poorly prepared for making major financial decisions. One important sub-group rarely examined by financial literacy studies is immigrants, who have specialized financial needs related to remittances. This paper examines variation in financial literacy amongst two actively remitting immigrant groups in Australia – Sri Lankans and Samoans – using surveys designed and supervised by the authors. Paying attention to remittance-related and credit-related literacy, large gaps in the level of financial literacy of the two groups are shown, which are due especially to differences in educational attainment. The wide variation in transactions costs of various remittance channels suggest that many immigrants could save several hundred dollars per year if improved financial literacy helped to produce more efficient remittance choices.     

Financial literacy,housing value and household financial market participation: Evidence from urban China

Using data from the 2012 consumer finance survey in China, we extend the literature on household finance by examining the effects of both financial literacy and housing value on household financial market participation, the role of which has been examined separately in the existing literature. The results show that financial literacy significantly improves the probability of household financial market participation, while the housing value has an obvious “crowding-out effect” on household financial market participation in urban China. Further research finds that the role of financial literacy in household financial market participation in households with a low housing value is stronger than that in households with a high housing value. Furthermore, the study of the regional differences shows that among households with a high housing value, financial literacy plays a more significant role in household bond market participation in less-developed cities. Among households with a low housing value, improvement in financial literacy plays a more significant role in household fund market participation in less-developed cities and under-developed cities. Our findings remain robust after alleviating potential bias due to endogenous problems by applying the instrumental variable (IV) method and propensity score matching (PSM) method. Finally, the paper proposes corresponding policy recommendations.     

Cash demand and financial literacy: A case study using Japanese survey data

Understanding the statistical relationship between cash demand and financial literacy is important in addressing policy concerns in Japan because the government has tried to reduce cash demands for day-to-day transactions and hoarding. However, few scholars have investigated this point because the available statistics on household cash demand do not contain the standard proxy variable for financial literacy and they do not distinguish cash demands among various households for day-to-day transactions and hoarding. Findings from this research fill these gaps by first imputing the missing financial literacy variable from other surveys and then by comparing the distribution of cash holdings for the high, middle, and low levels of financial literacy groups. In comparing the distributions of cash holdings by the three groups, cash distributions were also compared after dropping the observations above higher percentiles, expecting that the cash demand for hoarding would show up in the higher percentile of the cash distributions. Thus, it was possible to examine cash demands for day-to-day transactions. A comparison of the distribution of the ratio of cash demands to total financial assets holdings plus cash demands (hereafter cash ratio) across three levels of financial literacy groups was also made. It was found that a person with a higher level of financial literacy tends to have a large amount of cash holdings, perhaps mainly for the sake of hoarding; however, the person also tends to have other kinds of financial assets and thus a lower cash ratio value. Taking those findings at face value, the promotion of financial literacy and cashless payments for day-to-day transactions would reduce the relatively small amount of cash demands for day-to-day transactions, but it would not necessarily reduce the amount of cash demands for hoarding.     

晴天送伞,雨天收伞——对金融摩擦、信贷周期和企业融资难问题的分析

微观层面上,商业银行有着“晴天送伞,雨天收伞”的行为特征;而在宏观层面上,银行信贷也存在明显的顺周期性特征。本文构建了一个带有金融摩擦的新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型,把对宏观经济现象的分析建立在坚实的微观基础之上,从而将上述两者纳入到一个统一的分析框架之内。此外,本文还运用我国的实际经济数据对模型中的结构参数进行贝叶斯估计,并对模型中的主要经济变量和外生冲击做了脉冲响应函数分析。研究发现：微观层面上,商业银行的信贷紧缩和扩张行为是其在金融市场存在信息不对称问题下的理性决策;宏观层面上,银行信贷的顺周期性是由于存在金融摩擦所导致的;在如今经济增速下行阶段,风险冲击增强了银行的惜贷慎贷情绪,加剧了企业融资难问题。最后,本文根据模型模拟为如何缓解企业融资难问题提出了一些实际的可操作的政策建议。     

Who adopts crypto assets in Japan? Evidence from the 2019 financial literacy survey

The adoption of crypto assets has been of great concern to policymakers ever since Facebook announced its proposed cryptocurrency, Libra, in mid-2019. Behind this concern lies the possibility of widespread Libra adoption for day-to-day transactions, bringing with it a set of serious risks related to money laundering, illicit financing, and consumer and investor protection. This study first investigates the variables that distinguish Japanese crypto-asset owners from nonowners, then investigates the variables that distinguish the owners belonging to each group from the rest of the owners. The second investigation focuses on four groups: owners’ level of understanding of crypto assets, the profitability of their investment in crypto assets, their holdings of conventional risky financial assets, and their adoption of noncash payment methods. In addition to the usual demographic variables, financial literacy, financial behavior, conventional risky financial asset holdings, and use of noncash payment methods are also investigated. Both probit models and multinomial logit models are estimated and two results are obtained. First, 35 variables distinguish average Japanese crypto-asset owners from nonowners. Owners are more likely to be male, aged below 30 years, have higher pretax income, work in private or public companies, or be self-employed, and be graduate-school graduates compared with nonowners. Owners tend to have higher financial literacy from two perspectives: a measure of objective financial literacy and the experience of financial education at school, and lower financial literacy from three perspectives: the experience of financial education about money management by parents at home, experience of financial troubles, and knowledge about credit cards, than average nonowners. Regarding financial behavior, owners tend to be overconfident about their financial literacy, impatient, judge based on reputation in selecting financial products, lack self-control, and less risk-averse than nonowners. Owners tend to have experience investing in conventional risky financial assets and to use noncash payment methods. Second, 40–60% of variables that statistically significantly distinguish between the average owners and nonowners also differentiate the owners belonging to three of the four groups (excluded is the group that uses noncash payment methods) from the owners not belonging to the groups. These results suggest that policies for crypto-asset owners, if ever implemented, should not only consider the average owner's characteristics, but also owners’ heterogeneity.     

Does Fintech benefit financial disintermediation? Evidence based on provinces in China from 2013 to 2018

Financing for small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) is a challenge worldwide. Thus, it is worth considering how SME overcome the financing dilemma to use financial technology (Fintech). Using data from 31 provinces in China from 2013 to 2018, we construct a regional Fintech evaluation index system and examine the effects of Fintech on enterprise financing based on China's provincial panel data. The results show that Fintech can promote direct financing and form robust technology-driven disintermediation. Compared with capital-driven disintermediation, technology-driven disintermediation is more inclusive. We also conclude that more shadow banks and private enterprises, or higher digitalization, marketization, and securitization levels, will improve the efficiency of technology-driven disintermediation.     

Effects of financial inclusion on tax revenue mobilization: Evidence from WAEMU countries

Financial inclusion remains at the heart of governments concerns. By creating favorable conditions for access to a diversified range of adapted financial products and services at affordable costs for the populations, financial inclusion generates important opportunities that could lead to increased tax revenue mobilization. This paper analyzes the effects of financial inclusion on tax revenue mobilization, using panel data from West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries over the period 2006–2019. The findings suggest that financial inclusion positively and significantly influences government's tax revenue. Moreover, by looking at the effects of disaggregated financial inclusion dimensions (access, use, and affordability) on various components of tax revenue, we find that the estimated coefficients on the subcomponents of financial inclusion are statistically significant. Results also indicate that the magnitude of effect of financial inclusion is higher on indirect taxes compared to direct tax revenues. This research recommends that policy-makers should prioritize financial inclusion in their policies and development agenda through National Financial Inclusion Strategies (NFIS) because it can increase countries' resource mobilization and help them to build fiscal resilience.     

数字普惠金融对家庭消费借贷的影响研究——基于金融素养的调节效应

基于中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）2015年、2017年和2019年三期面板数据探讨数字普惠金融与家庭消费借贷之间的关系。研究表明,数字普惠金融对家庭消费借贷具有扩张效应,其中对低层次消费借贷扩张效应更强,金融素养提高能强化数字普惠金融对消费借贷的扩张效应。分数字普惠金融子维度来看,数字普惠金融对消费借贷的扩张效应主要源于覆盖广度和使用深度的提高,数字化程度作用较小。异质性分析发现,数字普惠金融对消费借贷的扩张效应对“长尾”群体更显著,即对农村和中西部家庭消费借贷具有更强的扩张效应。另外,该扩张效应存在工具门槛及知识门槛,拥有智能手机及高学历的家庭更容易获得消费借贷。     

Regional financial technology and shadow banking activities of non-financial firms: Evidence from China

Financial technology has greatly revolutionized the finance industry. However, the impact of financial technology on the shadow banking activities of non-financial firms has not been examined. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2011 to 2018, we find that regional financial technology is positively associated with the shadow banking activities of non-financial firms, which is more pronounced for firms with low profitability and firms listed only in China’s A-share market. We show that financial technology can enhance the shadow banking activities by alleviating financing constraints. In addition, an increase in the equalization of profit rate and an increase in investment in the real economy reduce the positive effect of financial technology on the shadow banking activities. Further analysis suggests that financial regulations can attenuate excessive shadow banking activities of non-financial firms driven by financial technology.     

Can Simple Informational Nudges Increase Employee Participation in a 401(k) Plan?

We report results from a field experiment in which a randomized subset of newly hired workers at a large financial institution received a flyer containing information about the employer's 401(k) plan and the value of contributions compounding over a career. Younger workers who received the flyer were significantly more likely to begin contributing to the plan relative to their peers in the control group. Many workers do not participate in their employers' supplemental retirement savings programs, even though these programs offer substantial tax advantages and immediate returns due to matching contributions. From a survey of new hires, we find that many workers choose not to contribute to the plan because they have other financial priorities. However, some nonparticipants lack the financial literacy to appreciate the benefit. These findings indicate that simple informational interventions can nudge workers to participate in retirement saving plans and enhance individual well‐being and retirement income security.     

香港、新加坡和上海国际金融中心的比较研究

本文以金融中心的功能定义为基准,以金融发展理论为基础,以金融系统功能分析为思路,对香港、新加坡和上海国际金融中心功能进行比较分析,探寻上海的比较优势和劣势。得出结论:从历史和现实来看,香港和新加坡在金融系统功能的诸多方面都超越上海,上海只是在商品期货方面处于领先地位;上海的最大优势之一是它和伦敦、纽约、东京一样有着强大的国家经济体作为后盾,近几年发展态势良好,有实现跨越式发展的能力:开放型、多功能是构建上海国际金融中心的趋势和方向。