实施QDII机制对我国的影响

本文简要介绍了QDII机制的由来及涵义,探讨了实行QDII机制对我国宏观经济的意义所在及其负面影响,针对目前我国现状提出我国实施QDII机制的必要性,并总结出我国实施QDII机制应注意的一些问题和实施办法。     

The impact of education on health in China

In this paper, we investigate the causal effect of education on health using an instrumental variable approach. The instruments we employ consist of two institutional changes in China that generated discontinuities in educational attainment among individuals. To ensure the validity of the instruments and obtain prudent conclusions, we adopt more restrictive identification tests than previous studies. The results indicate no causal impact of education on either perceived health or anthropometric health. With regard to the impact of education on male health behavior, namely smoking, we cannot provide conclusive results due to a violation of the exogeneity of our instruments. Nevertheless, we can confirm that education has no causal effect on female health behavior. To overcome the widely documented shortage of quasi-experimental identification, we also employ spouse's education as an alternative instrument to examine the causal effect of education. Identical results are obtained, with the exception that the impact of education on the reduction of overweight among women becomes significant. We conclude that this provides some evidence of a causal impact of education on health.     

Land use change and environmental stress of wheat, rice and corn production in China

Grain self-sufficiency is one of the most important agricultural policy goals in China. With only modest imports, China has succeeded in feeding 22% of the world's population on only 7% of its land. However, a high price has been paid for this enormous achievement. Increase in grain yields, in particular in rice, as the main source of production growth, relied heavily on intensive use of physical inputs and increasing intensity of farming systems. Soil degradation, water scarcity, and severe pollution were among the consequences as well as declining efficiency of fertilizer application. Using county-level panel data from 1980 to 2003 and graphical (GIS-based) analysis, this paper first looks at the spatial change of the major grain production across regions over the past two decades, towards the northern and northeastern provinces. The analysis is complemented by using a random panel data model, which underscores the significant influence of land availability, degree of urbanization, and government policy on grain production. Finally, this analysis addresses environmental stress which includes both soil degradation and water shortage. The latter is already severe in many of the traditional grain producing areas, but will now become a bigger problem in the “new” grain producing areas, as these have traditionally much less water resources. Hence, while the economic rational of the “grain shift” towards the northern and northeastern regions is understandable, its sustainability is not guaranteed.     

The unreported income and its impact on Gini coefficient in China

ABSTRACT

Unreported income is an important factor that distorts China’s household income accounting and Gini coefficient calculation. On the basis of comparing NBS household survey data and data from China’s Cash Flow Statement, this paper estimates the size and structure of unreported income in China over recent years. Our study found that about 20% of household disposable income has not been covered by existing household surveys in recent years. In 2015, the omission rate was 19.5%. Operating income and property income have the highest omission rates. Considering that unreported income is primarily owned by high-income people, China’s falling Gini coefficient since 2009 may have resulted from the statistical omission of partial incomes of high-income group. If unreported income is re-included, China’s Gini coefficient would increase by 10 percentage points rather than decrease.     

The impact of housing reform on durables consumption in China

The privatization of public housing in the 1990s in China had a considerable impact on the wealth of urban households. This paper analyzes the effects of the wealth change on household consumption of nine durable goods in urban China, including air conditioner, computer, color TV, washing machine, refrigerator, camera, microwave, telephone, and VCD/DVD. Our results show that households affected by the housing reform had a significantly higher level of durables consumption than those unaffected by the program. In the short term, their probabilities of purchasing air conditioners and computers increase by 2%–10% and 2%–7% respectively. In the long term, the effect on air conditioner consumption increases over time during our study period but effect on computer does not increase monotonically. Further, the effects of the housing reform on the consumptions of more commonly owned durables, such as color TV, washing machine, refrigerator, and telephone have diminished over time.     

The impact of structural adjustment on housing prices in China

Studies of the factors that influence housing prices have focused on housing characteristics, governmental policies, environmental goods, macroeconomic and social fundamentals, and so on. However, the effect of industrial structural adjustment on housing prices is worthy of further investigation. In China, it would be helpful to measure this effect to coordinate housing policy and the ‘Made in China 2025’ strategy, which aims to accelerate industrial restructuring. We selected a spatial panel data model to quantify the effects of the industrial rationalisation and sophistication attributable to spatial dependence in housing prices. Estimation results show that structural adjustment has a statistically significant effect on housing prices that varies widely across regions. In descending order, the impact of industrial structure sophistication decreases in eastern, central, western, and northeastern China. This finding suggests that the government should match housing with local industry, prevent excessive real estate development in conventional agricultural areas, and pay close attention to changes in housing prices caused by increasing industrial restructuring.     

The impact of teacher credentials on student achievement in China

Teacher quality is an important factor in improving student achievement. As such, policymakers have constructed a number of different credentials to identify high quality teachers. Unfortunately, few of the credentials used in developing countries have been validated (in terms of whether teachers holding such credentials actually improve student achievement). In this study, we employ a student-fixed effects model to estimate the impact of teacher credentials on student achievement in the context of the biggest education system in the world: China. We find that having a teacher with the highest rank (a credential based on annual assessments by local administrators) has positive impacts on student achievement relative to having a teacher who has not achieved the highest rank. We further find that teacher rank has heterogeneous impacts, benefiting economically poor students more than non-poor students. However, whether a teacher attends college or holds teaching awards does not appear to provide additional information on teacher quality (in terms of improving student achievement).     

The impact of Province-Managing-County fiscal reform on primary education in China

Using longitudinal Chinese county-level data from 2005 to 2007, we examine the causal effect of the Province-Managing-County fiscal reform on primary education spending by combining propensity score matching with the difference-in-difference method and allowing for the concurrent County Strengthening and Power Expansion reform. While the fiscal reform significantly increases per pupil expenditure on elementary education, there is little evidence showing that this fiscal reform narrows the urban-rural expenditure gap within counties. This Province-Managing-County reform, on the other hand, aggravates regional educational spending disparity in elementary schools based on the observation that the reform has caused a higher increase of per pupil educational spending in the affluent Eastern Region than the increase in Central and West China.     

环保节能型空心砌块的研制

混凝土小型空心砌块是当今世界流行的建筑制品,也是我国迄今产量最大、增长最块、应用最广的新型建筑材料之一.如何进一步突显混凝土砌块的环保性和生态性,使其显现出更强的技术经济优势,是大家研究的热点.     

The direct impact of the relocation of farm labour on Chinese grain production

The shift from collective to household-based farming and the move towards a market economy have increased the opportunity cost of grain production and caused a withdrawal of labour from grain farming in China. Since Chinese grain production is important to both China and the world, there are concerns about whether such a farm labour relocation will have a destructive impact on China's grain production. The previous production function studies ignored the effects of changes in labour quantity and quality on grain production. Using recently available sample survey data on Chinese farm households, this paper incorporates production function analysis with human capital analysis to examine the direct impact of the relocation of farm labour on China's grain production. It has found that the relocation of farm labour has not harmed the Chinese grain production in general, but its impact varies across regions with different factor endowments that affect the choice of farming technology.     

The impact of the 2007 reforms in China on the quality of earnings

Prior to 2007, in order to encourage international investment, China operated two parallel financial reporting systems, one based on Chinese GAAP for domestic investors and the other based on IFRS for international investors. In 2007, after a series of reforms to harmonise Chinese GAAP with IFRS, this system was replaced by a single set of standards for both classes of investor. We evaluate the impact of this significant change on earnings quality for stocks quoted on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges for the period 2003–2013. Using tests of earnings smoothing and early loss recognition, we identify three key features. Firstly, earnings quality improved consistently over the period. Secondly, prior to the reforms of 2007, IFRS earnings were of superior quality to Chinese GAAP earnings. A third and important finding is that earnings quality under Chinese GAAP after the 2007 reforms is comparable to that under pre-2007 IFRS.     

The spatiotemporal evolution of COVID-19 in China and its impact on urban economic resilience

The spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has had a major political, economic, social, and cultural impact on various countries worldwide. Based on economic operation, public opinion, public health, government policies and population inflow in the affected areas, this study measures daily economic resilience during the COVID-19 outbreak in 286 prefecture-level cities in China (from 1^st January to 8^th February, 2020). Specifically, this study further investigates the economic resilience and the number of COVID-19 cases by analysing the evolutionary trend of their spatial distribution pattern using the standard deviation ellipse (SDE). The impact of COVID-19 on economic resilience is examined using a panel vector autoregressive model. The following are the findings. (1) The economic resilience value decreased throughout the study period, but the cities with high economic resilience showed a trend of spatial diffusion in the late study period. Wuhan’s lockdown strategy was benefit to control the spread of COVID-19, and promptly stopped the decline of China's economic resilience. (2) Economic resilience and the number of COVID-19 cases influenced their future trends positively, but this effect gradually decreased over time. During the COVID-19, although the number of confirmed cases significantly influenced China's economic resilience, and the disease's spread was evident, China maintained a high level of economic development resilience. (3) The rise in economic resilience during the pandemic's early stages promoted the number of confirmed cases, but the strength of this relationship gradually declined as the pandemic progressed. Returning to work and other activities may increase the risk of infection. Numerous policies implemented at the outbreak’ inception aided in laying the groundwork for economic resilience. Although the outbreak had a detrimental effect on economic resilience in the later stages of the pandemic, a convergent trend was observed at the end of the research period. (4) Using variance decomposition, we discovered that future economic resilience was significantly influenced by itself and by relatively few changes. However, the impact of confirmed cases on economic resilience becomes apparent after the fourth period. This indicates that the number of confirmed cases must be limited during the initial stages. The early support of various sectors in China facilitated the spatial expansion of economically resilient cities. The pandemic has a non-negligible negative impact on economic resilience, but this has been mitigated by Wuhan's timely closure.     

The impact of microcredit on women's empowerment: evidence from China

The impact of microcredit on women's empowerment remains controversial, as documented in the microfinance literature. While some studies claim that microcredit helps women increase their income earning abilities, leading to greater power to overcome cultural asymmetries, others contend that small loans allocated to women are usually controlled by their spouses, which results in more severe subordination of women and leaves them more vulnerable to the patriarchy system within the household and/or at society level. This paper evaluates the empowerment impact of microcredit on rural women in China. Logistic regression is employed for empirical analysis and data are collected through a rural household survey. The results confirm that microcredit has a significant impact on five dimensions of women's empowerment, ranging from economic security to awareness of social/legal issues.     

The redistributive role of government social security transfers on inequality in China

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the redistributive role of government social security transfers on inequality in China. We attempt to answer two questions. First, does inequality of after-transfer income narrow, compared to that of before-transfer income? Second, given the scale and distribution of existing government social security transfers, will a small percentage increase in the transfers narrow or widen the inequality of total income? By employing the methodologies of the Musgrave-Thin (MT) index and decomposition of the Gini coefficient of total income by its sources, we find a positive answer to the first question and a negative answer to the second question. Government social security transfers have a positive role on inequality in the sense that the Gini coefficient of after-transfer income is smaller than that of before-transfer income. However, government social security transfers have a negative role on inequality, as current inequality will go up if there is a universal increase in government social security transfers for all recipients. Of all the components of government social security transfers, formal sector pensions are most unequalizing, whereas dibao and rural pension benefits have equalizing effects on the income distribution in China.     

Demographic change and its impact on farmers' field production decisions

Following the general trend in demographic change, and enhanced by the large-scale and continuous rural-urban migration, the rural labor force remaining in farming is quickly reducing and aging. This is likely to have significant impact on the labor-intensive agriculture. However, the fast growing of machinery service has provided farmers an opportunity to out-source field work that demands heavy labor inputs. Therefore, the demographic change and development of machinery service may jointly influence farmers' production decision in terms of crop choice and inputs. Household data of Fixed Point Rural Survey (FPRS) are used to examine the potential change in farmers' decisions on crop mix and input uses. It is found out that, under current situations, aging may impact agriculture through changing crop mix, and the choice is largely determined by access to service of farm machine; which, in turn, is likely to be determined by topography.     

Clothing,chips and competitive advantage: The impact of microelectronics on trade and production in the garment industry

This paper presents the results of a research project which examined the impact of microelectronics on the nature of production and the patterns of international trade in the clothing industry. Empirical evidence is given on the effects of microelectronics-related innovations currently being used by clothing manufacturers in the developed countries. Radical innovations have been introduced in the ‘pre-assembly’ stage which have revolutionized this phase of production. In contrast, the introduction of microelectronics into assembly technology is still limited. As a result, the clothing industry remains reliant on labor-intensive techniques that place it at a competitive disadvantage compared to low-wage developing countries. Hence, the determinants of international competitive advantage in the industry remain largely unaltered. However, due to increasing concentration and major new R&D efforts in the public and private sector, it is argued that the preconditions are being laid for a fundamental structural and technological transformation of the industry in the North, which could have very important implications for the competitive position of Third World clothing exporters. Emphasis is also placed upon the continued restraining effects of protectionist barriers imposed by the main importing nations and on the differential impact of this on the ability of newer entrants to achieve rapid and sustained export growth.     

The impact of institutional reform from 1979 through 1987 on fertility in rural China

This empirical study brings together data on the local timing of the rural household responsibility system (HRS) reforms in China from 1979 through 1987 and assesses the association of the local reforms with individual parity-specific fertility changes as measured in the in-depth fertility survey. Fertility appears to have increased slightly in 1982 through 1984, but declined in 1985 through 1987, in the wake of these significant economic reforms. It is hypothesized that the reforms increased the private monetary and opportunity cost of childbearing and intensified market competition for the adoption of new production technologies that encouraged parents to educate their children better, while increasing the mobility of the rural labor force and thereby discouraging and delaying childbearing among rural Chinese.     

Fiscal risks and their impact on banks' capital buffers in South Africa

South Africa's fiscal balances have deteriorated significantly over the last decade, although the economy has been recording disappointing economic growth rates even prior to the COVID-19 crisis. In this paper, we estimate a series of equations to test how sovereign risk premia affect capital buffers, while controlling for variables identified in the literature, such as size of banks and the economic cycle. Unlike other studies, we use actual capital buffers. We show that these are substantively different to the proxy buffers calculated using the common approach in the literature, indicating that results based on proxy measures should be interpreted with caution. Our overall results show a positive relationship between the sovereign risk premium and capital buffers. This suggests that banks are accumulating capital to mitigate against fiscal and other domestic policy risks. It is likely that this is contributing to higher lending rates.