Tournament-based incentives and media sentiment

We find that promotion-based tournament incentives of executives are positively associated with firms’ media sentiment. This effect is more pronounced among firms with greater need for media favourability, captured by higher information opacity, lower analyst coverage, lower industry homogeneity, lower investment sentiment and lower managerial ability. Furthermore, we identify better financial performance and higher corporate branding as two channels through which tournament incentives can enhance a firm’s positive media sentiment. Our results are also robust to two quasi-natural experiments affecting promotion-based tournaments – (a) an exogenous CEO turnover due to health issues or sudden CEO death, and (b) the implementation of Say-on-Pay (SOP) law. Overall, our findings indicate that tournament-based incentives encourage a firm’s executives to showcase their skills to broader stakeholders, which consequently increases a firm’s media image.     

News sentiment and sovereign credit risk

We explore the impact of media content on sovereign credit risk. Our measure of media tone is extracted from the Thomson Reuters News Analytics database. As a proxy for sovereign credit risk we consider credit default swap (CDS) spreads, which are decomposed into their risk premium and default risk components. We find that media tone explains and predicts CDS returns and is a mixture of noise and information. Its effect on risk premium induces a temporary change in investors’ appetite for credit risk exposure, whereas its impact on the default component leads to reassessments of the fundamentals of sovereign economies.     

News sentiment and stock market volatility

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This study investigates the effect of news sentiment on stock market volatility using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity...     

Stock returns forecasting with metals: sentiment vs. fundamentals

Using six prominent metal commodities, we provide evidence on the out-of-sample forecasting of stock returns for the market indices of the G7 countries, for which there is little prior evidence in this context. We find precious metals (gold and silver) can improve forecast accuracy relative to the benchmark and performs well compared to forecast combinations. From an economic gains perspective, forecasting returns provides certainty equivalent gains in a market timing strategy for the G7 countries. These certainty equivalent gains are large enough to make active portfolio management attractive, even for individual investors. Gains remain after considering reasonable transaction costs.     

News sentiment and the investor fear gauge

This note examines the relationship between aggregate news sentiment and changes in the implied volatility index (VIX). A significant negative contemporaneous relationship between changes in VIX and news sentiment is discovered. The relationship is asymmetric whereby changes in VIX are larger following the release of negative news items.     

Political sentiment and corporate social responsibility

This paper examines the association between firm-level political sentiment and corporate social responsibility (CSR). Drawing inferences from signaling and resource-based theory, we posit a positive relationship between political sentiment and CSR. Using 23,160 firm-year observations of US public firms between 2002 and 2018 as our sample, we find empirical support for our prediction. In addition, the positive relationship between political sentiment and CSR is driven by the environment, community relations, employee relations, and diversity dimensions of CSR activities. We find consistent evidence when we measure CSR using some ‘real effect’ variables. Our cross-sectional analyses reveal that the positive association between political sentiment and CSR is more evident for firms that have a high level of information asymmetry and firms that are large, mature, and active in political lobbying. Our findings remain robust to a batch of sensitivity and endogeneity tests. Overall, our findings advance the literature by highlighting the interplay between politics and firms in an ever-changing political environment.     

Sensitivity to investor sentiment and stock performance of open market share repurchases

This paper finds that stocks of repurchasers with high sensitivity to investor sentiment are more likely to be mispriced. Thus, such repurchases are followed by superior post-buyback stock performance. This abnormal return associated with sensitivity to sentiment cannot be explained by other undervaluation factors: book-to-market or prior return effects. My results are robust with factor model analysis and controls for contamination effects. I conclude that this sentiment-driven undervaluation may result from the difficulty to value and/or limits to arbitrage rather than investor overreaction.     

News sentiment in the cryptocurrency market: An empirical comparison with Forex

We use high frequency intra-day data to investigate the influence of unscheduled currency and Bitcoin news on the returns, volume and volatility of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin and traditional currencies over the period from January 2012 to November 2018. Results show that Bitcoin behaves differently to traditional currencies. Traditional currencies typically experience a decrease in returns after negative news arrivals and an increase in returns following positive news whereas Bitcoin reacts positively to both positive and negative news. This suggests investor enthusiasm for Bitcoin irrespective of the sentiment of the news. This phenomenon is exacerbated during bubble periods. Conversely, cryptocurrency cyber-attack news and fraud news dampen this effect, decreasing Bitcoin returns and volatility. Our results contribute to the discussion on the nature of Bitcoin as a currency or an asset. They further inform practitioners about the characteristics of cryptocurrencies as a financial asset and inform regulators about the influence of news on Bitcoin volatility, particularly during bubble periods.     

Influence of media coverage and sentiment on seasoned equity offerings

This article examines the role of media in seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) price and market reactions on SEO announcements. Using a sample of SEO deals in UK, we find that media coverage is significantly and negatively related to SEO price discounts and market returns around SEO announcements. Moreover, we document that more pessimistic media sentiment predicts larger SEO price discounts and more negative market reactions to SEO announcements. In summary, both media coverage and media sentiment influence investor decisions in SEOs, but through different mechanisms.     

News media analytics in finance: a survey

We survey the works applying text analytics to the study of news media in financial markets beyond intraday horizons, and expand into the fundamental economic theory and concepts relevant to the field. We compare and contrast the news sources, textual analysis methods and empirical modelling approaches adopted within the literature. We distil and categorise the key empirical insights, and summarise the bibliographic history of the literature so far. While this rapidly growing field has yielded many exciting discoveries, there are a number of promising avenues for future research which will only benefit from continued advances in computational technology.     

Islamic and conventional portfolios optimization under investor sentiment states: Bayesian vs Markowitz portfolio analysis

This paper investigates the portfolio optimization under investor’s sentiment states of Hidden Markov model and over a different time horizon during the period 2004–2016. To compare the efficient portfolios of the Islamic and the conventional stock indexes, we have employed two approaches: the Bayesian and Markowitz mean-variance. Our findings reveal that the Bayesian efficient frontier of Islamic and conventional stock portfolios is affected by the investor’s sentiment state and the time horizon. Our findings also indicate that the investor’s sentiment regimes change the Islamic and the conventional optimal diversified portfolios.Moreover, the results show that the potential diversification benefits seem to be more important when using the Bayesian approach than when applying the Markowitz approach. This finding is valid for the bearish, depressed, bullish and calm states in Islamic stock markets. However, the diversification of potential portfolios is significant only for the bullish and the bubble states in the conventional financial markets.The findings of the study provided additional evidence for investors to exploit googling investor sentiment states to evaluate the portfolio performance and make an optimal portfolio allocation.     

Accounting students access to social media related resources and the risk of tacit social exclusion

ABSTRACT

The use of social media platforms to facilitate teaching and learning requires resources (hardware and Internet access) to enable active student participation. Limited access to these resources may impair students’ learning and, should the students consequently fail to graduate, tacitly contribute to their social exclusion. The results of a survey amongst students at a South African university, identified statistically significant differences relating to hardware and Internet access between more affluent students, and lower income students. Using social media may, therefore, be countering the objective of widening the admissions to universities in South Africa as an attempt to address past exclusionary practices. This study raises awareness with instructors and administrators globally, about the risk of tacit social exclusion, as a result of the tools selected to facilitate learning.     

Stock market reactions to domestic sentiment: Panel CS-ARDL evidence

This study sets out to explore the effects of business and consumer sentiment on stock market performance, within the separate contexts of advanced and emerging markets. The empirical analysis is carried out using the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) modeling approach, which considers time dynamics, cross-sectional heterogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence. The findings for developed markets suggest that business sentiment has positive leading effects on stock returns, across short- and long-term time horizons, while for emerging markets, the price impact of business sentiment turns out to be short-lived. On the other hand, consumer sentiment tends to affect positively both market types, albeit only in the short run. Furthermore, the influence of sentiment indicators seems to be stronger in emerging- than in developed-market countries. The results remain robust, even after controlling for a rich range of potential predictors of stock returns. Generally, such evidence highlights the relevance of psychological factors, such as business and consumer sentiment, in determining the future trajectory of asset prices.     

Investor sentiment and the dispersion of stock returns: Evidence based on the social network of investors

This paper extracts an investor sentiment indicator for the 30 DJIA stocks based on the textual classification of 289,024 online tweets posted on the so-called StockTwits, and examines its contemporaneous and predictability effects on the dispersion of stock returns using the quantile regression technique. We find that both contemporaneous and predictability effects of sentiment are heterogeneous throughout the return distribution. Specifically, sentiment is positively contemporaneously associated with stock returns at higher quantiles. However, it is a strong negative predictor of future returns at lower quantiles. Overall, our findings are broadly consistent with most behavioural theories and show that sentiment mainly affects the valuation of assets in extreme market conditions.     

Public engagement through social media: the spending review experience

This paper, relying on three empirical cases of spending reviews carried out in Europe, investigates how social media has been used to engage citizens in spending review processes. The authors explain the differences in levels of engagement between the use of social media (Web 2.0 tools) compared to traditional Web 1.0 tools. Finally, they discuss how government might genuinely listen to its citizens and work with them.     

Government social media and corporate tax avoidance

With the advent of the new media era, government social media have become an important paradigm for social governance. We perform a large-sample regression and reveal that the higher the quality of taxation bureaus’ operation of government social media, the lower the degree of local enterprises’ tax avoidance, which works through reducing tax avoidance incentives and increasing the difficulty of committing tax avoidance. Moreover, government social media play a substitution effect on tax enforcement and administration. We also find that government social media should focus on strengthening its official, formal and professional characteristics. Given the significant recent changes in how enterprises handle taxation, the proportion of information that taxation bureaus post on system operation should be appropriately increased.     

Accounting narratives and impression management on social media

In this paper, we examine the defensive and assertive impression management strategies and the impact of firm performance on accounting narratives by investigating the earnings disclosures of FTSE 100 companies on Twitter. Social media has become the prevailing venue for organisational self-presentation because it provides firms with more control over the image they intend to establish and maintain through the communication and content they deliver online. Our findings show that firms minimise the disclosures of negative information but employ various patterns and dissemination techniques to emphasise positive information. Specifically, improving performers are more willing to post and disseminate earnings-related tweets to achieve a higher degree of stakeholder engagement than declining performers. Based on these findings, we conclude that firms present themselves on social media opportunistically to construct a positive public image.     

Fundamental strength strategy: The role of investor sentiment versus limits to arbitrage

This paper evaluates the return predictability of fundamental strength in a two-dimensional framework that considers both investor sentiment and limits to arbitrage simultaneously. Sentiment and limits to arbitrage have independent and overlapping explanatory power on the return predictability of fundamental strength. The return predictability of fundamental strength is more pronounced among stocks with high arbitrage costs following high sentiment. Among stocks with low arbitrage costs, the fundamental strength strategy is profitable only following high sentiment. However, among stocks with high arbitrage costs, the same strategy can earn economically and statistically significant profits even following low sentiment. Consistent with Miller (1977), we emphasize the interaction of sentiment and limits to arbitrage on stock valuation.