Are tourist arrivals stationary? Evidence from BRIC countries

In this study, we attempted to analyse whether the shocks to tourist arrivals in BRIC countries are temporary or permanent, by analysing the stationary characteristics of the data in panel framework. We found that, for Brazil, Russia and India, tourist arrivals are stationary process, whereas for China it is non-stationary process. This implies that shocks to the tourism sector in Brazil, Russia and India have only temporary effect, whereas the shocks to China's tourism sector have permanent effects.     

Hong Kong’s low car dependence: lessons and prospects

Reducing car dependency, and hence traffic, have become key transport objectives of many cities and countries. Despite relatively high levels of wealth, Hong Kong has never become a car-dependent location. Using results of a survey of 340 young Hong Kong people and five focus group discussions, this paper argues that there are lessons to be learned from Hong Kong, and that transport policies, rather than population density, are mainly responsible for the low levels of car ownership and use. It also shows, however, that without even stricter policies, car ownership and use could increase substantially in the future.     

How do the effects of local built environment on household vehicle kilometers traveled vary across urban structural zones?

Many studies have examined the effects of the local built environment (LBE) on household car usage. However, it remains unclear how these effects vary across urban structural zones. This study examines the case of Shenzhen and employs a multigroup structural equation model to reveal the varying LBE effects among car-owning households in inner-city, inner-suburban, and outer-suburban zones. The empirical modeling results indicate that the distance from the residence to the city center and the work-home distance have the greatest influence on household vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT). Average household VKT decreases with the distance from the residence to the city center after it peaks at the threshold radius distance of 8–10 km to the city center. In general, dense, mixed, small-block land use patterns reduce household VKT. However, the magnitude and significance of the LBE effects on household VKT vary across urban structural zones. These findings suggest that land-use policies can be developed specifically for different urban structural zones to effectively decrease household VKT.     

Introduction to the special issue: Air transport in the Global South

Research on the development and impacts of air transport has hitherto focused mainly on developed countries in the Global North, and relatively little on less developed countries in the Global South. The seven papers of this Special Issue of the Journal of Transport Geography aim to address this imbalance and encourage further research on air transport development in the Global South. In recent years, the Global South has witnessed significant changes in air transport networks and policies, with implications for economic growth, spatial development and airline business models. This Special Issue explores some challenges to air transport development in the Global South for countries in Africa, South America, the Middle East and Asia, including links between air transport and economic development, the evolution and key drivers of air transport growth and the spatial distribution of passenger airline networks, and the development and impact of low-cost carriers. It also identifies opportunities for future research in this growing area.     

The factors in residents' mobility in rural towns of China: Car ownership,road infrastructure and public transport services

The improvement of rural people's mobility in developing countries has informed many policies. Still, debates remain on which policies are efficient, for instance, building more roads, providing public transport or promoting car ownership. The empirical evidence for these debates at the national level remains scarce. As a result, this paper aims to provide fresh evidence for discussions by examining residents' mobility in China using nationwide survey data with 12,524 respondents from 119 rural towns. The results of the analysis show car ownership is the most significant factor influencing rural people's mobility than other factors. Higher car ownership relates to a higher travel frequency to counties or cities. Other kinds of transport vehicles (i.e. electric cars, motorcycles and electric bikes) also have positive but relatively weaker impacts on rural mobility. For public transport, it is more accessible to access bus stops, which encourages travel to higher-order centres rather than increasing the frequency of county bus services. The accessibility of high-quality road systems tends to have a negative influence and has combined effects with levels of local services. People from towns with insufficient local services and poor access to highways travel the most frequently to higher-order centres. This study highlights the critical role of road investments and car ownership enhancement policies in improving mobility. Moreover, this study also underscores the supplemental role of public transport services given the current low car ownership rates in rural towns of China and the global consensus on sustainable green transport development. It highlights the importance of engaging eco-friendly and locally adaptive transport alternatives, such as electric cars and electric bikes. It also calls for a rational distribution of bus stops and more flexible, convenient, and physically accessible public transport and carshare modes in rural China.     

Sustainable public transport systems: Moving towards a value for money and network-based approach and away from blind commitment

Growing public transport patronage in the presence of a strong demand for car ownership and use remains a high agenda challenge for many developed and developing economies. While some countries are losing public transport modal share, other nations are gearing up for a loss, as the wealth profile makes the car a more affordable means of transport as well as conferring elements of status and imagery of “success”. Some countries however have begun successfully to reverse the decline in market share, primarily through infrastructure-based investment in bus systems, commonly referred to as bus rapid transit (BRT). BRT gives affordable public transport greater visibility and independence from other modes of transport, enabling it to deliver levels of service that compete sufficiently well with the car to attract and retain a market segmented clientele. BRT is growing in popularity throughout the world, notably in Asia, Europe and South America, in contrast to other forms of mass transit (such as light and heavy rail). This is in large measure due to its value for money, service capacity, affordability, relative flexibility, and network coverage. This paper takes stock of its performance and success as an attractive system supporting the ideals of sustainable transport.     

An examination of the factors that impact upon multiple vehicle ownership: The case of Dublin, Ireland

This paper examines the characteristics of households with multiple car ownership in Dublin, Ireland. Data from the 2006 Census of Ireland are analysed to ascertain the characteristics of these households. The analysis of multiple car ownership presented herein examines individual specific, transport availability, and household characteristics to provide an indication of the individuals most likely to have access to more than one vehicle. Understanding the characteristics of households with more than one car is important for many reasons, such as how policies for emissions reductions or pricing regimes might affect households. Ireland, like many countries, has recently launched a number of electric vehicle and car sharing schemes. Traditionally these schemes have been aimed at reducing multiple car ownership, therefore it is important to develop an understanding of the households that would most likely give up an extra car and use a car sharing scheme or an electric vehicle. Also from a sustainability point of view, greater levels of car ownership can result in unsustainable transport patterns.This paper examines the Census data using a multinomial logit regression model to determine the relationships between multiple car ownership levels and several household characteristics. The findings of the paper demonstrate that occupation, public transport availability and residential density all have an impact upon the decision to own more than one vehicle.     

The role of air transport in employment creation and inclusive growth in the Global South: The case of South Africa

This paper investigates the claim that air transport development may be an engine for inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction in developing and emerging countries, using the example of South Africa, a country with high income inequality and rising air traffic volume. A social accounting matrix (SAM) model is adopted to assess the strengths of backward and forward linkages between the air transport sector and the local economy, and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to estimate the economy-wide impact of air transport expansion in South Africa. The results show that air transport has a significant effect on output, incomes and employment, and that its importance lies in its considerable backward linkage effects. Income and employment effects are found to be unevenly distributed in the economy, the biggest winners being households in the highest expenditure decile, as well as highly skilled labour. It is concluded that unless accompanied by improvements in education and training for low-skilled workers, air transport expansion may lead to a widening of income inequality in South Africa.     

Impact of transport pricing on quality of life, acceptability, and intentions to reduce car use: An exploratory study in five European countries

This paper examines how a transport pricing policy aimed to reduce car use may affect individuals’ Quality of Life (QoL), to what extent this policy is acceptable to the public and if people intend to change car use when the policy is implemented. Also, comparisons were made amongst five countries (Austria, Czech Republic, Italy, The Netherlands and Sweden). An internet survey among 490 respondents showed that a stringent measure, i.e., doubling costs of car use, hardly affects people’s general QoL. Respondents are unsure whether they would accept the policy and whether they intend to change their car use if the policy is implemented. Respondents from The Netherlands and Sweden are more pessimistic about the QoL consequences of the policy, think the policy is less acceptable and are less inclined to reduce car use than respondents from the Czech Republic, Italy and, to a lesser degree, Austria. Implications and recommendations for developing, adjusting or supplementing QoL measurement instruments and policies are discussed to ensure effective and efficient policy making.     

Private motorised urban mobility in China’s large cities: the social causes of change and an agenda for future research

The growth of private motorised urban mobility has become a key issue in relation to environmental quality in China’s cities. This paper reports on a nationwide study of the changes in car use in the 2000s, conducted in eleven large cities. This may assist us in filling the gaps in our existing knowledge, which is based on individual city cases. It is apparent that China’s large cities are embracing a new era of the automobile at an unexpected speed and scale. However, at the same time, it seems that a ‘peak’ in car use has occurred in Shanghai and Beijing, as either the absolute number of VKT per capita has dropped or its growth has slowed in these cities. The changes in urban mobility are deeply affected by social and economic transition factors. The paper provides an in-depth analysis of the effects of increasing incomes and the growing middle class, changing lifestyles and the emerging consumer society, the appearance of the e-Society and an increasingly ageing society. In particular, the growing demand for car use by the younger generation (G2), women and elderly people for the purpose of social activity has become an important force behind the increase in overall VKT. The paper concludes with a discussion of current theoretical perspectives and the issues which should be addressed in future research on the social aspects of private motorised urban mobility in China.     

Vienna's path to sustainable transport

Vienna, Austria reduced the car share of trips by a third between 1993 and 2014: from 40% to 27%. The key to Vienna's success has been a coordinated package of mutually reinforcing transport and land-use policies that have made car use slower, less convenient, and more costly, while improving conditions for walking, cycling, and public transport. During 32 in-person interviews in Vienna in May 2015, a wide range of politicians, transport planners, and academics almost unanimously identified the expansion of the U-Bahn (metro) and parking management as the most important policies accounting for the reduction in car mode share since 1993. Implementation of sustainable transport policies in Vienna has been a long-term, multi-staged process requiring compromises, political deals, and coalition-building among political parties and groups of stakeholders. This consensual approach to policy development has been time-consuming. Vienna has not been the first city to introduce any particular policy, but it has masterfully adopted successful policies from other cities. The continuity of social democratic governments in Vienna since 1945 has provided a crucial political basis for long-term implementation. The Greens have vigorously pushed for accelerating implementation of sustainable transport policies since becoming part of the ruling coalition government in 2010. The progressive political environment in Vienna has been essential to its increasingly sustainable transport system. Other major cities in Western Europe have also reduced the share of trips by car since 1990. Together with Vienna, they provide useful lessons for other cities throughout the world on how to reduce car dependence.     

Can high quality public transport support reduced car parking requirements for new residential apartments?

This paper explores the extent to which high quality public transport can support reduced car parking requirements for new residential apartment buildings. Using a case study of Melbourne, the demand for car parking at residential apartment buildings in proximity to high frequency public transport is assessed, while controlling for a range of socio-demographic, urban design and demand management variables. Key findings indicate that while lower demand for car parking is associated with proximity to high quality public transport, this association is not significant when controlling for other factors that influence car ownership. Public transport service supply within 800 m of residential apartment buildings was instead found to be significant, rather than simple distance to transit. Modelling results suggest an inelastic relationship whereby a 10% increase in public transport service supply is associated with a 0.9–1.2% reduction in car parking demand as measured by levels of car ownership. Notwithstanding broader criticisms of residential off-street parking minimums, the findings have important implications for the development of residential car parking policies, suggesting that city-wide car parking requirements should appropriately reflect the spatial distribution and quality of public transport services.     

Constraints affecting mode choices by morning car commuters

In New Zealand as elsewhere, there is an increasing interest in alleviating congestion on the road transport network to improve economic productivity, reduce pollution, and to use the transport network more effectively. Governments enact various policies to encourage car drivers to change their behaviour, but often find that the full impact is not reached. We propose that car drivers have constraints influencing their mode choice for the morning peak period trip (e.g. needing to transport children, needing a car for work during the day). A stated preference experiment conducted in the three largest New Zealand urban areas not only quantifies the likely impact of a wide range of policy tools (both ‘sticks’ discouraging car use, and ‘carrots’ encouraging alternative modes) for each area, but also identifies many significant constraints.     

Impact of COVID-19 on the number of days working from home and commuting travel: A cross-cultural comparison between Australia,South America and South Africa

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way we go about our daily lives in ways that are unlikely to return to the pre-COVID-19 levels. A key feature of the COVID-19 era is likely to be a rethink of the way we work and the implications on commuting activity. Working from home (WFH) has been the ‘new normal’ during the period of lockdown, except for essential services that require commuting. In recognition of the new normal as represented by an increasing amount of WFH, this paper develops a model to identify the incidence of WFH and what impact this could have on the number of weekly commuting trips. Using data collected in eight countries (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and South Africa), we developed a Poisson regression model for the number of days individuals worked from home during the pandemic. Simulated scenarios quantify the impact of the different variables on the probability of WFH by country. The findings provide a reference point as we continue to undertake similar analysis at different points through time during the pandemic and after when restrictions are effectively removed.     

Children's active travel and independent mobility in four countries: Development,social contributing trends and measures

In many countries a decline in children's active and independent mobility, like walking and cycling is registered. In this paper the development of children's mobility in Denmark, Finland, Great Britain and Norway is compared to examine differences and similarities in these countries. Accessible data are used, which implies that not all of them are directly comparable, but they are employed as indicators of development. The trends are the same in these four countries, an increase in car use and decrease in bicycling and walking. Distance to school has increased, both as a result of bigger units and more children in private schools. Traffic is an important reason for taking children to school by car, but convenience for the parents is also part of it. Organized leisure activities has also contributed to less walking and cycling, in addition to more time pressure in families, increased access to car(s) and easier access to parents as a ‘transport service’ by the help of the mobile phone. The measures that different countries use in trying to meet the challenges of children's mobility tend to focus on the school trip and most often on traffic safety, both at national and local levels.     

Kingdon’s multiple streams model and automobile dependence reversal path: the case of Curitiba, Brazil

This paper draws on Kingdon’s multiple streams model of problems, policies and politics to explain the process of automobile dependence reversal path in urban transport planning in Curitiba, Brazil. What significantly contributed to the automobile dependence reversal path was a diverse coalition of actors who mobilized capabilities and structures to exploit policy windows at different periods of time and even tried to trigger policy windows within the milieu of problems, policies and politics of Curitiba to implement policies on public and non-motorized transport. The Curitiba experience shows that addressing the embedded problem of automobile dependence sometimes requires innovative and strategic responses within the intricate political, policy and urban planning dynamics of a city.     

De-marketing the car

Governments in many countries are experimenting with alternative methods for reducing car use, including congestion charges, increased fuel taxation, and improved public transport. This paper raises another possibility. Not only could public transport be marketed as an alternative to the private car, but through targeted propaganda, the automobile could be de-marketed as a status symbol and a convenient accessory of modern life. In contrast with other public information campaigns, de-marketing would focus on people's self-image rather than their sense of public duty.The authors draw on established theory in putting forward alternative themes aimed at particular categories of user and particular categories of journey, and briefly consider the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. Peer group pressure could be an important factor in helping to change attitudes among potential car users at the opinion-forming stage during their life cycle. The agencies best positioned to deliver an effective national campaign are public transport corporations, local authorities, health organisations, and environmental lobby groups; a co-ordinated approach could bring about a modest contribution towards travel reduction at a relatively low cost.     

The dark side of making transit irresistible: The example of France

The French experience in developing policies to reduce car use in metropolitan areas is presented in this paper as an illustration of the lack of recognition of the broader set of criteria on which specific policy frameworks should be judged. One of the major challenges, and often failings of policies focussed on reducing car use, is the lack of a structure that ensures that the downside impacts are not relocated to other parts of a system such that potential gains end up being eroded by the potential losses. We draw on experiences throughout France, as well as case studies in Lyon, to highlight the dark side of French transport policy promoting a switch from car to public transit and non-motorised modes, in terms of financial, equity and environmental outcomes.     

Context sensitive multimodal road planning: a case study in Cape Town, South Africa

Road planning practice relies almost exclusively on parameters related to traffic factors, such as private vehicle speeds and volumes. In many developing countries the requirements for public transport and non-motorised transport are not explicitly integrated into the planning process, despite the fact that these form the primary mode of transport for the majority of the population. This affects the mobility opportunities for these sectors of the population and contributes to poor road safety, especially with regards to pedestrians. The research outlined in the paper posits that, in order to assess the usage and needs of the road holistically, other factors related to the adjacent land uses, socio-economic characteristics of the population the road serves, and the environmental context within which the road is located, factors heavily in how the road is used and should, therefore, be considered within the planning process. The paper describes a methodology to include these factors in the planning of roads. The method attempts to prioritise amongst the five primary road based modes (public transport, car, freight, walking and cycling) based upon a combination of traffic and non-traffic factors. The method employed uses a geographic information system (GIS) based spatial multiple criteria evaluation (SMCE) model with inputs from widely available data sources such as census, household travel surveys, land use and environmental data to arrive at solutions for modal priorities. A case study is conducted along an arterial route in Cape Town, South Africa, providing infrastructure planning recommendations and audit possibilities for the future. Since weighting is an important driver in the SMCE process, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the effect of alternative weighting schemes on the outputs from the method.