The exchange rate and monetary conditions in the Euro area

The Exchange Rate and Monetary Conditions in the Euro Area. — Using information from a variety of sources, this paper suggests that the exchange rate will play an important role in the transmission of the impact of monetary policy on the real economy and inflation in the euro area. As a first approximation it would be reasonable to assume that an increase in the real 90-day interest rate of 100 basis points would have the same effect on demand two years later as a 3.5 percent fall in the real euro exchange rate. This implies that the euro area will tend to behave like a large open economy rather than a closed economy and hence that it would be helpful in informing monetary policy to construct a Monetary Conditions Index (MCI).     

Can the World Cut Poverty in Half? How Policy Reform and Effective Aid Can Meet International Development Goals

Poverty in the developing world will decline by about one-half by 2015 if the trends of the 1990s persist. Most of this poverty reduction will occur in Asia, however, while poverty will decline only slightly in Africa. Effective aid could make a contribution to greater poverty reduction in lagging regions. Even more potent would be significant policy reform in these countries. We develop a model of efficient aid in which flows respond to policy improvements that create a better environment for poverty reduction and effective aid. We investigate scenarios of policy reform and efficient aid that point the way to how the world can cut poverty in half in every major region.     

国家自主性、中央银行独立性与国际货币合作——德国国际货币政策选择的政治逻辑

政治经济学文献表明,通过将货币政策交给具有独立性的中央银行来管理,政府可以增强货币政策承诺的可信性。但是,具有独立性的中央银行在政治过程中也构成了一个否决行为体,从而有可能限制国家(政府)的自主性。根据"结构导致的均衡"的分析视角,如果国家偏好与中央银行偏好不一致,何者可以转化为权威性行为将取决于该国的政治制度。在国内政治制度的变革难以实现的情况下,国家可以通过参与国际制度与国际谈判来改变中央银行与政府之间的既有均衡,并使这种均衡朝着增强国家自主性的方向演变。作为世界上独立程度最高的中央银行之一,德国联邦银行担心欧洲货币合作会干扰其维护国内币值稳定的目标,更不愿通过放弃本国货币马克来推进货币一体化。但是,德国联邦政府通过其在国际制度与国际谈判中享有的信息优势与合法性,克服了德国联邦银行对欧洲货币合作的反对,推动建立了欧洲货币体系和欧洲货币联盟。     

CREDIT POLICY STRESS IN THE WEST AFRICAN ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION

This paper examines credit policy stress in the West African Economic and Monetary Union and provides evidence that a regional credit policy would not suit all the countries that are members of this currency union. Some countries obtain a higher volume of domestic credit when policy is conducted at a domestic level than they would in the context of a single regional policy. Furthermore, there are differences in the country‐specific reaction function to changes in the economic environment. To show the inappropriateness of a regional credit policy within the West African Economic and Monetary Union area, we compute credit stress indicators both for the countries and for the region taken as a whole. The stress indicators represent the gap between the optimal policies conducted at country and regional levels. Our study covers the period from 1980 to 2007.     

贸易摩擦背景下关税与货币政策反制策略研究

通过将贸易品美元定价约束、外汇噪声交易和关税反制等特征融入两国DSGE模型,文章对贸易摩擦背景下美国进口关税冲击的传导渠道以及中国的关税反制策略与货币应对政策有效性等问题进行了数值分析。研究发现,关税反制措施能够有效地对冲美国加征进口关税对中国实际产出、消费和净出口的消极影响,并有助于抑制人民币实际汇率贬值。若进一步搭配将出口品关税纳入利率调控框架的积极货币政策,对于经济扩张与保持汇率稳定都更加有效。但从长期社会福利角度看,积极货币政策对美国经济也具有明显的正向溢出作用,关税反制则会产生显著的福利转移效应,不采取任何关税与货币应对政策将使中国遭受最大的福利损失。因此,基于"打击最大化、自损最小化"原则,中国应对美国采取坚决有力的关税反击,同时保持货币政策相对中性、克制,以期实现"以战促和"的战略目标。     

Why China Should Invest Its Foreign Exchange Reserves in the Major US Banks

The subprime mortgage crisis and the resultant inflationary monetary policy in the USA have left the Chinese economy subject to four risks in particular. First, China＇s exports to the USA might continue to decline. Second in the medium term, the higher US inflation rate will lead to a weak dollar, which will negatively affect China＇s exports. Third in the long term, when the US Federal Reserve decreases money supply to control inflation, the US economy might enter another recession, hurting China ＂s exports further. Fourth, China＇s foreign exchange reserve assets might suffer heavy losses when the US inflation rate rises. Conventional foreign exchange investment strategies are insufficient for dealing with these four risks. Investment by China in the major US banks is suggested in the present paper. This strategy would mitigate if not eliminate all four risks. China could gain considerable financial returns on investments with only moderate risk.     

Consumption,Credit, and Macroeconomic Policies: Theory and Evidence from the United States

Abstract

The paper examines determinants of private consumption in the USA. The empirical model includes disposable income, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, the interest rate, and the real effective exchange rate. Anticipated movements in these determinants are likely to affect planned consumption, while unanticipated changes determine cyclical consumption. Fluctuations in private consumption are mostly cyclical with respect to changes in disposable income and the consumers’ sentiment index. In contrast, an increase in the interest rate decreases both planned and cyclical consumption. Fiscal policy has a direct negative effect on cyclical consumption, which is not dependent on the interest rate. Monetary growth, in contrast, increases liquidity to finance both planned and cyclical private consumption.     

Monetary Policy,Market Structure and the Income Shares in the U.S

A general equilibrium model of heterogeneous capital is employed to investigate whether, how and to what extent monetary policy and market structure may have contributed to the decline of the labor share in the U.S. in recent decades. By construction the model allows monetary policy to affect the labor share through two channels, i.e. one linking the policy rate to the real interest rate and another linking the latter to the useful life of producers’ goods, whereas regarding market structure, the more competitive the economy, the higher the labor share. From its solution using U.S. data over the period 2000–2014 it emerges that the persistent reduction in the policy rate on the one hand slowed down the decline in the labor share and on the other accelerated it, because the reduction in the policy rate was accompanied by a robust upward trend in the equilibrium real rate of interest, which increased the useful life of producers’ goods. In turn, to gauge the relative strength of these two opposite effects, the equation of the labor share is estimated by means of the autoregressive distributed lag method. The results show that the adverse effect of monetary policy through the useful life of producers’ goods was more than 12 times as strong as the favorable effect of the policy rate and on this ground I conclude that the monetary policy contributed to the decline of the labor share significantly, at least since 2000. As for the market structure, it is found that even if firms had and attempted to exercise monopoly power, it would be exceedingly difficult to exploit it because the demand of consumers’ goods is significantly price elastic.     

Measuring the monetary policy stance of the People's bank of china: An ordered probit analysis

The People's Bank of China (PBC) has employed a range of different instruments in the implementation of its monetary policy over the past decades, so perhaps no single instrument would constitute an adequate representation of the monetary policy stance. We thus develop a new policy stance index, and examine it in an ordered probit model, which follows the studies by Gerlach (2004) and He and Pauwels (2008). The empirical results show that in a backward-looking model, monetary policy reacts to actual output growth; one the other hand, when deviations from trend levels are considered, the PBC concerns inflation most seriously. In a forward-looking model, when we examine the PBC's statements in its quarterly Monetary Policy Executive Report from 2001Q1 to 2010Q3, it seems that the PBC's assessment of the prospects for inflation plays a key role determining the PBC's monetary policy stance. Our conclusions suggest that the PBC is informally targeting inflation, although no explicit target has ever been announced to the public by the PBC.     

Inflation Targeting in Practice: Models,Forecasts, and Hunches

This paper reviews the role that model-based forecasts play in the monetary policy process in the United Kingdom, with particular reference to the Bank of England’s new quarterly model and continuing research into other statistical approaches. The Bank’s models provide a consistent framework for considering alternative scenarios and risks but judgement always plays a large role in constructing forecasts. It is hard to say precisely how important forecasts are in driving policy decisions, but there is some evidence that the rethink of key issues during the forecast round has been a source of policy surprises. Forecasts also play a central part in communicating the Monetary Policy Committee’s thinking to the outside world. But forecasts are highly fallible. So the MPC’s forecast centered approach to inflation targeting has gone hand in hand with a determined effort to illustrate the wide range of uncertainties around its central projections.Distinguished address presented at the Fifty-Ninth International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 9–13, 2005, London, England. I am most grateful to Jens Larsen, James Bell, Fabrizio Zampolli, and Robin Windle for research support; and to Charlie Bean, Peter Andrews, Spencer Dale, Phil Evans, Laura Piscitelli, and other colleagues at the Bank of England for helpful comments.     

发达国家刺激经济中的定量宽松货币政策

国际金融危机中,传统货币政策在主要发达国家已失去了操作空间,为了维持虚拟经济的稳定,定量宽松货币政策被大规模使用。定量宽松货币政策是在经济陷入流动性陷阱时的一种非传统货币政策,也是虚拟经济高度发展背景下的一种必然选择。美国等发达国家的定量宽松货币政策虽然取得了一定的效果,但其对未来经济却存在着诸如通货膨胀风险等负面作用,同时这一政策的平稳退出也将是两难选择。     

Was ECB's monetary policy optimal?

Overall, the ECB managed monetary policy quite satisfactorily in the first phase of EMU. Nevertheless, this paper asks whether monetary policy could not have been improved. In the last three years, Euroland was confronted with the first external shock. Oil prices increased considerably, leading to an increase of headline inflation of over one percentage point in 2000–01. With a specific Taylor rule one can very well understand, how the ECB sets interest rates, but it turns out that monetary policy based on the estimated Taylor reaction function was rather backward than forward looking. While it reacted with a lag to the actions of the U.S. Fed, it was overly cautious by targeting total HICP inflation. Here it is strongly argued and also demonstrated with model simulations that a monetary policy oriented towards core inflation would have resulted in a much better economic performance. The business cycle downturn could have been mitigated with no additional inflation risks.     

The ERM II issues: An interpretation of the Slovenian approach

This paper overviews the joint strategy of the Bank of Slovenia and of the Government of Slovenian for the policy management in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II) and the eventual adoption of the euro. The current prospects of the Slovenian economy are favorable for early entry into ERM II so that the currency union can be acceded as soon as possible. The ERM II-connected risks, in particular an asymmetric credit financed demand boom, require a new policy mix to be set in place. While the monetary policy will focus on the tight management of the nominal exchange rate, the role of inflation restraint and shock absorption will rely on fiscal and income policies. The views expressed by the author do not necessarily correspond to those of the Board of the Bank of Slovenia. This paper was prepared for the panel “Monetary Policy and EMU Enlargement: The Adoption of the Euro” at the International Atlantic Economic Conference held in Lisbon in March 2004.     

联合国预测:中国快速走向老龄化

最新发布的联合国《世界人口前景2010修订本》对中国人口的评估和预测作出了重大调整,预测中国人口在2026年达到峰值13.96亿后迅速下降,到2050年时下降到12.95亿。预测表明中国快速迈向老龄社会大势已定,无法逆转,生育率能否尽快走出低谷是决定中国人口未来的关键。人口预测只是人口决策的参考而不应该是人口决策的目标。鉴于中国生育率低于更替水平已达20年之久,现在已经到1.5以下,再不调整计划生育政策,极有可能掉入"低生育水平的陷阱"。     

National and Regional Impacts of an Increase in Value-Added Tax: A CGE Analysis for South Africa

The South African National Treasury expected a revenue shortfall of R48.2 billion in 2017/18 and proposed tax policy measures to raise an additional R36 billion in 2018/19. A key component to raise the additional revenue was a 1% point increase in the VAT rate to 15% effective from 1 April 2018. The increase in the VAT rate was not welcomed as it would increase the cost of living, especially for the poor. We investigate the potential economy-wide and regional impacts of raising VAT and increasing public spending on education and health. We do this by developing and applying a multi-regional model of the South African economy that includes detailed tax and spending features. In this model, when we increase VAT, the impacts are driven by the direct shock to the model, accompanied by differences in regional economic activity. We find that effects on GDP vary between regions but are generally negative.     

Inflation,stabilization and attempted redemocratization in Peru, 1975–1979

This paper discusses the acute stabilization crisis of 1975–1978 and attempts to explain why, for so long, it proved difficult to handle both in economic and in political terms. The role of external creditors, in particular the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is discussed. We examine the response of the entrepreneurial and labour sectors to the policy of the government, and attempt to explain why a coup along Chilean lines would have been very difficult to impose in Peru. Finally we analyse the implications of the recovery of 1979, when suddenly IMF targets were easily fulfilled, but with a proposed return to democracy and not, as in the southern-cone countries, a repressive authoritarianism. The development of 1979 do not qualify the earlier analysis of the unsuitability of abrupt and orthodox stabilization to an economy such as Peru's.     

Inflation,expectations, and cyclical aggravations

Summary The negative relationship between output and producers' expectations and the positive relationship between output and consumers' expectations, as hypothesized by Brunner and Meltzer, is very sensitive to the choice of the model. These Brunner-Meltzer predictions would not be supported by the results derived from a Fisherian model with or without a Phillips curve specification, such as the models presented in this paper.Within the context of the Fisherian model, an increase in the degree of adjustment by one or both sectors will lead to greater price stability. For policy purposes, this result suggests that the increase in available information or significant reduction in the costs of acquiring information may yield greater price stability. A welfare gain may also be achieved if the parameters are interdependent such that information conveyed to one sector effectively leaks to the other. In the latter case, the policy approach may be to try to influence the exogeneous expectations parameters and the lag adjustment between them.Recent studies have proposed that the labor market—or the market for new entrants and transitory workers—is the arena in which all firms participate. Hence, most of the information regarding price movements could be efficiently gathered in this market. If this is an accurate presumption, thenB* would, to some extent, be a function then of the labor market adjustment parameterA*. Further amendments to the model presented in this paper would, however, be necessary to incorporate this alternative.     

政府调控、住房需求结构与住房价格：一个动态模型

垄断土地所有权的政府如果具有短期政绩目标函数,他们对土地的控制会使房地产预期价格具有不断上涨的下鞅性,这会提高住房的投机性需求。本文建立了一个住房价格动态模型,在住房价格服从下鞅性的条件下分析住房价格和住房需求结构的动态,发现并不是所有的初始点都会收敛到稳态均衡点,有些初始点会沿着一个稳定的需求结构不断推动价格上涨。对于这些初始点,政府的调控政策至关重要。我们在相位图中分析了政府各种调控政策对住房需求结构和房地产价格变动路径的影响,发现在所有的调控措施中,最有效的调控政策是通过改进土地产权制度来改变投机需求者的预期,减少住房投机需求,使价格收敛到一个较低的稳态水平上。     

我国影子银行对银行业系统性风险影响研究——基于内生化房地产商的DSGE模型分析

近年来我国房价的持续上涨促使大量资金借道影子银行体系流向房地产市场,推动了金融体系内系统性风险的集聚。有鉴于此,文章构建了内生化房地产商的DSGE模型,以此探讨影子银行对银行业系统性风险的影响。实证结果表明,影子银行融资利差增大、房地产需求的扩张以及紧缩的货币政策冲击均会使商业银行资金向影子银行转移,促使融资杠杆率提升,加大银行业系统性风险;因此,目前我国稳健中性的货币政策,能够合理引导预期稳定房价,有利于防控系统性金融风险。然而,在紧缩性货币政策冲击下,商业银行贷款利率随着影子银行融资利率的下降而出现下降,说明影子银行的存在一定程度上造成了货币政策传导机制的失效。文章研究结论对引导我国影子银行健康发展、防范系统性金融风险具有重要政策启示。