Exploring the impacts of land use by service coverage and station-level accessibility on rail transit ridership

In this study, we employ spatial regression analysis to empirically investigate the impacts of land use, rail service coverage, and rail station accessibility on rail transit ridership in the city of Seoul and the surrounding metropolitan region. Our analyses suggest that a rail transit service coverage boundary of 500 m provides the best fit for estimating rail transit ridership levels. With regard to land use, our results confirm that density is positively related to rail transit ridership within a 750 m radius of each station. In contrast, land use diversity is not associated with rail transit ridership. We also found that station-level accessibility is as important as land use for explaining rail transit ridership levels. Finally, we conclude that development density and station-level accessibility measures such as the number of station entrances or exits and the number of bus routes at the station are the most important and consistent factors for promoting rail transit ridership.     

Examining the influence of stop level infrastructure and built environment on bus ridership in Montreal

We studied transit ridership from the perspective of the transit provider, with the objective of quantifying the influence of transit system operational attributes, transportation system infrastructure attributes and built environment attributes on the disaggregate stop level boardings and alightings by time of day for the bus transit system in the Montreal region. A Composite Marginal Likelihood (CML) based ordered response probit (ORP) model, that simultaneously allows us to incorporate the influence of exogenous variables and potential correlations between boardings and alightings across multiple time periods of the day is employed. Our results indicate that headway affects ridership negatively, while the presence of public transportation around the stop has a positive and significant effect. Moreover, parks, commercial enterprises, and residential area, amongst others, have various effects across the day on boardings and alightings at bus stops. An elasticity analysis provides useful insights. Specifically, we observe that the most effective way to increase ridership is to increase public transport service and accessibility, whereas enhancements to land use have a smaller effect on ridership. The framework from our analysis provides transit agencies a mechanism to study the influence of transit accessibility, transit connectivity, transit schedule alterations (to increase/reduce headway), and land-use pattern changes on ridership.     

Transit ridership forecasting at station level: an approach based on distance-decay weighted regression

This article develops a rapid response ridership forecast model, based on the combined use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), distance-decay functions and multiple regression models. The number of passengers boarding at each station in the Madrid Metro network is estimated as a function of the characteristics of the stations (type, number of lines, accessibility within the network, etc.) and of the areas they serve (population and employment characteristics, land-use mix, street density, presence of feeder modes, etc.). The paper considers the need to evaluate the distance threshold used (not the choice of a fixed distance threshold by assimilation from other studies), the distance calculation procedure (network distance versus straight-line distance) and, above all, the use of distance-decay weighted regression (so that the data from the bands nearer the stations have a greater weighting in the model than those farther away). Analyses carried out show that weighting the variables according to the distance-decay functions provides systematically better results. The choice of distance threshold also significantly improves outcomes. When an all-or-nothing function is used, the way the service area is calculated (straight-line or network distances) does not seem to have a decisive influence on the results. However, it seems to be more influential when distance-decay weighting is used.     

Influence of the built environment on E-scooter sharing ridership: A tale of five cities

Electric scooter (e-scooter) sharing systems (ESSs) have been widely adopted by many cities around the world and have attracted a growing number of users. Although some studies have explored the usage characteristics and effects of the built environment on ESS ridership using one city as an example, few studies have considered multiple cities to obtain generalizable and robust results. To fill this research gap, we collect the ESS trip data of five cities in the U.S., namely Austin, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Louisville, and Portland, and explore the effects of the built environment on ESS ridership after controlling for socioeconomic factors. The temporal distributions of e-scooter ridership of different cities are similar, having a single peak period on weekdays and weekends between 11:30 and 17:30. In terms of spatial distribution, the ESS ridership is higher in universities and urban centers compared to other areas. Multilevel negative binomial model results show that ESS trips are positively correlated with population density, employment density, intersection density, land use mixed entropy, and bus stop density in the census block group. E-scooter ridership is negatively correlated with the median age of the population in the census block group and distance to the city center. The findings in this article can help operators understand the factors that affect the ridership of shared e-scooters, determine the changes in ridership when the built environment changes, and identify high-ridership areas when ESS is implemented in new cities.     

Joint analysis of the impacts of built environment on bikeshare station capacity and trip attractions

Shared micromobility is proliferating throughout the world. Many researchers have extensively studied the links among factors representing the built and natural environment and bikeshare demand. One common feature of the existing demand models is that they view bikeshare infrastructure as a group of exogenous variables along with other influential factors. Indeed, this assumption is seldom true in planning practices. Bikeshare system operators usually allocate resources in dense urban areas based upon the environmental correlates. This study contributes to the literature by jointly exploring the determinants of bikeshare station capacity (i.e., the number of docking points) and trip arrivals at the station-level. The research dataset is constructed from the Citi Bike system in New York City in September 2016. The analytical results reveal that the effects of built environment characteristics on bikeshare usage could be carefully considered during the system installation process. We find existing bicycle facilities do not significantly influence the supply of docking points at the station-level. However, they exert direct and positive effects on hourly trip arrivals. The findings improve our understanding of the bikeshare system installation process.     

Exploring the impact of built environment factors on the use of public bikes at bike stations: Case study in Zhongshan,China

Many countries have implemented public bike systems to promote sustainable public transportation. Despite the rapid development of such systems, few studies have investigated how built environment factors affect the use of public bikes at station level using trip data, taking account of the spatial correlation between nearby stations. Built environment factors are strongly associated with travel demand and play an important role in the success of public bike systems. Using trip data from Zhongshan's public bike system, this paper employed a multiple linear regression model to examine the influence of built environment variables on trip demand as well as on the ratio of demand to supply (D/S) at bike stations. It also considered the spatial correlations of PBS usage between nearby stations, using the spatial weighted matrix. These built environment variables mainly refer to station attributes and accessibility, cycling infrastructure, public transport facilities, and land use characteristics. Generally, we found that both trip demand and the ratio of demand to supply at bike stations were positively influenced by population density, length of bike lanes and branch roads, and diverse land-use types near the station, and were negatively influenced by the distance to city center and the number of other nearby stations. However, public transport facilities do not show a significant impact on both demand and D/S at stations, which might be attributed to local modal split. We also found that the PBS usage at stations is positively associated with usage at nearby stations. Model results also suggest that adding a new station (with empty capacity) within a 300 m catchment of a station to share the capacity of the bike station can improve the demand-supply ratio at the station. Referring to both trip demand models and D/S models, regression fits were quite strong with larger R² for weekdays than for weekends and holidays, and for morning and evening peak hours than for off-peak hours. These quantitative analyses and findings can be beneficial to urban planners and operators to improve the demand and turnover of public bikes at bike stations, and to expand or build public bike systems in the future.     

Diurnal pattern of transit ridership: a case study of the New York City subway system

We study the diurnal pattern of subway ridership in New York City. Our study complements the existing line of research that looks at the dynamics of a place by studying the socio-demographics of its visitor population. It also points out an important omission in ridership research on the time of day dimension. The study results identify five main classes of the diurnal patterns and demonstrate that station ridership’s diurnal pattern is closely related to the local built environment.     

The spatial characteristics and influencing factors of modal accessibility gaps: A case study for Guangzhou,China

This paper presents an analysis of the spatial characteristic of the modal accessibility gap (MAG) in Guangzhou based on travel times for public transport and cars to public centers calculated by the Travel O-D point Intelligent Query System (TIQS). Four spatial regression models are used to investigate the effect on the MAG of six factors of the built environment (distance to city public centers, residential density, landuse mix, bus stop density, metro station density and road network density). The results show that travel time for a given origin to destination (OD) trip is likely to be larger by public transport than by car, especially for a trip of longer travel time. The MAG values of all the communities are larger than 0, indicating that when compared with public transport, travelling by car takes less travel time for individuals. Residential density, land-use mix, bus stop density and metro rail station density have significant negative direct impacts and indirect impacts (spatial spillover effects) on MAG, which indicates that appropriate increase in community residential density, providing diversified service facilities within a community, and improving public transport supply are beneficial to promote modal shift. Specifically, the role of metro rail is greater than that of buses. However, the road network density has significant direct positive impacts on MAG, and its spillover effect is also significantly positive, which indicates that building more roads is not an effective way to narrow the accessibility gap between public transport and cars but may facilitate more car travel instead.     

Multi-city exploration of built environment and transit mode use: Comparison of Melbourne,Amsterdam and Boston

The built environment is an important determinant of travel demand and mode choice. Establishing the relationship between the built environment and transit use using direct models can help planners predict the impact of neighborhood-level changes, that are otherwise overlooked. However, limited research has compared the impacts of the built environment for different networks and for individual transit modes.This paper addresses this gap by developing built environment and transit use models for three multimodal networks, Amsterdam, Boston and Melbourne, using a consistent methodology. A sample of train, tram and bus sites with similar station-area built environments are selected and tested to establish if impacts differ by mode. It is the first study that develops neighborhood-level indicators for multiple locations using a consistent approach.This study compares results for ordinary least squares regression and two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression to examine the impact of transit supply endogeneity on results. Instrumented values are derived for bus and tram frequency in Melbourne and bus frequency in Boston. For other mode and city combinations, the 2SLS approach is less effective at removing endogeneity.Results confirm that different associations exist between the built environment and transit modes, after accounting for mode location bias, and that this is true in multiple networks. Local access and pedestrian connectivity are more important for bus use than other modes. Tram is related to commercial density. This finding is consistent for all samples. Land use mix and bicycle connectivity also tend to be associated with higher tram use. Train use is highest where opportunities exist to transfer with bus. Population density is commonly linked to ridership, but its significance varies by mode and network.More research is needed to understand the behavioral factors driving modal differences to help planners target interventions that result in optimal integration of land use with transit modes.     

Impacts of high-speed rail on the inequality of intercity accessibility: A case study of Liaoning Province,China

The rapid development of Chinese high-speed rail (HSR) not only improves the convenience of daily transportation, but also promotes the regional economy of cities along the HSR lines. Accessibility improvement and spatial inequality reduction caused by HSR would play a positive role in transportation development projects appraisal and help achieve the regional coordinated development. Our purpose is to assess how much improvement of economic potential accessibility can each city get from the HSR based on the existing highway and HSR networks, as well as the changes in spatial disparity and accessibility distribution patterns. Taking Liaoning Province as a case, this paper studies the spatial pattern and inequality of accessibility in two intercity transportation scenarios using a gravity-based model. The sensitivity analysis of the parameter and the test of different mass indicators are also conducted. The results show that cities in the central areas have better accessibility than peripheral areas. Cities in the peripheral areas and near the HSR lines tend to benefit more from HSR. The inequality of accessibility decreases a lot in cities with HSR access but only has a minor reduction on a whole scale.     

Urbanization impacts on regional tourism development: a case study in China

This paper studies the urbanization impacts on tourism development in four regions Guangdong province, using time-series data of Guangdong province in China in 1996–2011. Urbanization has been operationalized by population, economic, geographical landscape and social cultural dimensions. This study suggests that urbanization, though in general increases tourism development, does not affect different regions in Guangdong uniformly. Tourism development in different regions will receive different impacts from urbanization. Therefore, policy-makers, while promoting tourism development, should be aware of the different levels of impact of urbanization towards tourism development.     

Shopping morphologies of urban transit station areas: A comparative study of central city station catchments in Toronto,San Francisco,and Melbourne

Synergies between shopping and public transit have long been noted, with main streets emerging along tram lines and shopping malls attached to train stations. The shopping-transit synergy is also at the core of transit-oriented development (TOD), a widespread planning approach to urban sustainability. However, there is a lack of morphological research investigating how shopping clusters around transit stations at a fine-geographic scale. This paper explores the shopping morphologies of three central-city subway station areas in Toronto, San Francisco, and Melbourne, mapping and measuring the extent of public and quasi-public shopfronts relative to the station. The morphological analysis of 200, 300, 400, and 500 m walking catchments shows that as the distance from the station increases, the proportion of shopfronts in the total catchment declines. Quasi-public shopping space can enhance the walkable catchment and permeability of a station area and may contribute to urbanity as long as it adds to diversity of access options. The findings highlight the role walkable shopping environments can play within urban transit station areas and show the importance of nuanced consideration being given to morphologies in the analysis and planning of TODs.     

Accessibility impact of the present and future high-speed rail network: A case study of Jiangsu Province,China

The large-scale implementation of a high-speed rail (HSR) network is often considered to have a significant effect on the spatial distribution of accessibility. In China, the development of HSR network has progressed rapidly since the first line commenced operation in 2008. As an important component of this network, Jiangsu province proposed an ambitious HSR construction program which planned to cover over 95% of its counties by 2030. Reduced travel time for passengers is one of the most important effects of HSR, and therefore this study aims to analyze the accessibility impact of the evolving HSR network in Jiangsu province from 2010–2030. A layered cost distance method, based on a door-to-door approach, is proposed to evaluate the present and future accessibility at a more detailed geographical level. The results demonstrate that, with the gradual development of the HSR network, accessibility levels across the province will be improved by about 9.6%, and the distribution of the gains will be uneven since the most significant improvements will occur in the more peripheral areas. The inequality in regional accessibility will decrease by an average of 25.7%, which will produce a more homogeneous accessibility landscape. In addition, several policy measures are suggested in order to further enhance the competitiveness of the HSR network in the transport market at a regional level. This extended period of exploratory and detailed analysis is expected to facilitate proactive public policy decisions related to improving the transport network.     

Combined impacts of highways and light rail transit on residential property values: a spatial hedonic price model for Phoenix,Arizona

This study analyzes the positive and negative relationships between housing prices and proximity to light rail and highways in Phoenix, Arizona. We hypothesize that the accessibility benefits of light rail transit (LRT) and highways accrue at nodes (stations and highway exits specifically), while disamenities emanate from rail and highway links as well as from nodes. Distance decay of amenities and disamenities is captured using multiple distance bands, and hypotheses are tested using a spatial hedonic model using generalized spatial two-stage least-squares estimation. Results show that proximity to transport nodes was associated significantly and positively with single-family detached home values. As a function of distance from highway exits and LRT stations, the distance-band coefficients form an inverted-U pattern consistent with a positive longer-range distance–decay accessibility effect minus a smaller and shorter-range distance–decay disamenity effect. The positive accessibility effect for highway exits extends farther than for LRT stations. Coefficients for the distance from highway and LRT links, however, were not significant. We also test the effect of highway design on home values and find that below-grade highways have relatively positive impacts on nearby houses compared to those at ground level or above.     

An investigation of the performance of urban rail transit systems on the corridor level: A comparative analysis in the American west

Since the 1980s, significant investments have been made in urban rail transit across the United States, particularly using light rail technology. Most of these light rail systems have been built in Sunbelt cities which no longer had legacy rail systems. As a result, they were constructed using a building blocks approach, being funded corridor by corridor. Most research, however, on urban rail performance has taken place at the system-wide level, leaving a significant gap at the level of the transit corridor. This research examined nineteen urban rail corridors in Denver, Salt Lake City, and Portland. A performance score was constructed for each corridor based upon ridership per mile, ridership growth, capital costs, and the cost of ongoing operations. These scores were then compared with the geographic profile of each corridor studied. Corridors in each city ranked high and low, with no city emerging as a clear frontrunner. More centrally-located corridors in each city registered the highest performance scores, while longer corridors in more peripheral locations had lower performance scores. Headways, population density, job density, walkability, and percentage renter occupied housing units were found to have a statistically significant relationship with high corridor performance, largely in line with previous studies, though median income, bus connections, and park and ride spaces were not found to increase performance in this study.     

Transit ridership estimation with network Kriging: a case study of Second Avenue Subway,NYC

An attractive topic in transportation practice is transit ridership estimation. Reliable estimates are beneficial to spatial structuring, facility design, and vehicle operation, as well as financial and labor management. Traditional ridership estimation approaches mainly rely on regression models that consider subway fares, population, and employment distribution in surrounding areas. Yet consideration of ridership’s spatial dependency is largely lacking in these models. This paper recognizes the spatial effect by estimating the ridership of the new Second Avenue Subway in New York City using a network Kriging method. Network distance, instead of Euclidean distance, is used to reflect the fact that subway stations are only connected by subway tunnels. Results show that the new service should effectively relieve the traffic burden on other currently crowded subway lines.     

The spatial impacts model of trans-strait fixed links: A case study of the Pearl River Delta,China

The mage trans-strait fixed links are constructed in different countries to promote regional economic and social development. This paper proposes a spatial impacts model for the trans-strait fixed links in the Pearl River Delta, China. To verify the rationality of the model, four quantitative indicators, including weighted average travel time, the economic linkage intensity, the economic linkage membership grade, and the fractal index are used to investigate the effect by construction of Humen Bridge, Hong Kong–Zhuhai–Macao Bridge and Shenzhen–Zhongshan Bridge. The results show that the Hong Kong–Zhuhai–Macao Bridge and Shenzhen–Zhongshan Bridge greatly improve the regional accessibility with a maximum decrease weighted average travel time of 1.38 h and 0.4 h. The central part of the Delta has greatest impacts. The links increase the economic linkage of cities of each side. The cities directly connected to the fixed links (Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Macao and Zhongshan) experience the highest increasing economic linkage. The regional spatial pattern evolves from unipolarity to multi-polarity and integrates a more advanced and sophisticated spatial network. The theoretical spatial impacts model for the trans-strait fixed links accords with the actual development in the Pearl River Delta.     

Advance transit oriented development typology: case study in Brisbane,Australia

Internationally, transit oriented development (TOD) is characterised by moderate to high density development with diverse land use patterns and well connected street networks centred around high frequency transit stops (bus and rail). Although different TOD typologies have been developed in different contexts, they are based on subjective evaluation criteria derived from the context in which they are built and typically lack a validation measure. Arguably there exist sets of TOD characteristics that perform better in certain contexts, and being able to optimise TOD effectiveness would facilitate planning and supporting policy development. This research utilises data from census collection districts (CCDs) in Brisbane with different sets of TOD attributes measured across six objectively quantified built environmental indicators: net employment density, net residential density, land use diversity, intersection density, cul-de-sac density, and public transport accessibility. Using these measures, a Two Step Cluster Analysis was conducted to identify natural groupings of the CCDs with similar profiles, resulting in four unique TOD clusters: (a) residential TODs, (b) activity centre TODs, (c) potential TODs, and (d) TOD non-suitability. The typologies are validated by estimating a multinomial logistic regression model in order to understand the mode choice behaviour of 10,013 individuals living in these areas. Results indicate that in comparison to people living in areas classified as residential TODs, people who reside in non-TOD clusters were significantly less likely to use public transport (PT) (1.4 times), and active transport (4 times) compared to the car. People living in areas classified as potential TODs were 1.3 times less likely to use PT, and 2.5 times less likely to use active transport compared to using the car. Only a little difference in mode choice behaviour was evident between people living in areas classified as residential TODs and activity centre TODs. The results suggest that: (a) two types of TODs may be suitable for classification and effect mode choice in Brisbane; (b) TOD typology should be developed based on their TOD profile and performance matrices; (c) both bus stop and train station based TODs are suitable for development in Brisbane.     

Residential property value impacts of proximity to transport infrastructure: An investigation of bus rapid transit and heavy rail networks in Brisbane,Australia

Public transport investment is normally targeted at increasing accessibility which land rent theory identifies and will in turn increase land values. There is a clear policy interest in how much land values increase following a new transport investment so as to establish if there is sufficient land value uplift to capture and to help pay or contribute to investment plans. Identifying an uplift for residential land has been well studied in the context of new light rail systems and bus rapid transit (BRT) systems in developing countries but there is little evidence for BRT in developed countries.This paper has two objectives. First, to examine long term impact of BRT in a developed world context in Brisbane, Australia. Brisbane's BRT uses an open system design which contrasts with the closed system design of the successful BRT systems in South America and elsewhere, including the BRT in the suburbs of Sydney, Australia. Second, BRT in Brisbane was introduced to a network already dominated by a radial heavy rail network and this investigation recognises that the uplift from BRT introduction may therefore be different to a BRT in a single mode city. A third motivation is to consider the spatial distribution of uplift which is an essential pre-requisite to understanding the distributional impact if uplift is used to contribute to infrastructure provision.Spatial modelling is used to examine the accessibility impacts of the BRT at a global level. This is followed by Geographical Weighted Regression, used to examine the spatial distribution of accessibility using a local model.The results show that there is greater uplift in Brisbane, as compared to that identified by studies of Sydney's BRT which is likely due to the greater network coverage of BRT in Brisbane and less strong competition of rail. Land value uplift is also spatially distributed over the network giving higher uplift in some areas than others and lower values than typically found with rail based systems in developed countries. However, the degree of uplift is relatively low, with proximity to BRT stations attracting more uplift than proximity to train stations.     

Evaluating the impact of organizational patterns on the efficiency of urban rail transit systems in China

Over the past few decades, to help alleviate surface road congestion and protect environment, the enthusiasm for constructing Urban Rail Transit systems (URTs) is booming in many megacities of China. Owning to the distinct characteristics, the URTs in different Chinese cities exhibit different organizational patterns, which can be classified into three models (i.e., Publicly owned-operated model, Contemporary commercialization model and Innovative privatization model). The application of the proposed SM-NDEA model indicates the average overall efficiency of Chinese URT systems is relatively low, which is more influenced by the financial and construction inefficiencies than the production and consumption inefficiencies. The detailed comparisons among three organizational models show there exists some differences in terms of the overall efficiency and efficiency scores of four stages across three organizational patterns.