A Long-run Disaggregated Cross-section and Time-series Demand System: An Application to Italy

In this paper, we study a long-run disaggregated model of consumption following an approach based on an integrated cross-section and time-series demand system. The study consists of three steps. First, a cross-section analysis is performed on data from household budget surveys. At this stage, the problem of 'zero expenditures' is solved. The cross-section results are transformed into variables for use in the time-series system of demand. Then, this demand system is built and estimated. Some results for Italy concerning both the cross-section and the time-series analyses are presented.     

我国城镇居民休闲消费现状及对策研究

随着我国经济快速增长和社会全面发展,人民生活逐渐富裕起来,货币收入不断增多,闲暇时间也有了大幅度增加。城乡居民越来越关注生活质量的改善和提高,其中,休闲问题越来越引起人们的关注。健康合理的休闲消费对于促进个人和社会的全面发展具有重要意义。本文在分析我国城镇居民休闲消费的现状以及城镇居民休闲消费中存在的问题的基础上,对促进居民休闲消费的发展提出几点思考和建议。     

Labor market search and capital accumulation: Some analytical results

This paper integrates labor market search into an intertemporal utility maximization framework and analytically solves for equilibrium dynamics. The integrated model improves upon a neoclassical model by generating the realistic hump-shaped response of output to a productivity shock and the counterclockwise dynamics of job vacancies and unemployment around the Beveridge curve. In contrast to a standard search model, our model endogenizes agents' reservation wage as the marginal rate of substitution between leisure and consumption, through which agents' intertemporal consumption decision directly affects the labor market behavior. As a result, even a permanent productivity shock generates non-monotonic dynamics in employment.     

Competitive equilibrium cycles with endogenous labor

In this paper, we study a two-sector optimal growth model with elastic labor supply. We show that the modified golden rule is saddle-point stable when the investment good is capital intensive. To characterize stability with a capital intensive consumption good, we focus on either additively separable or homothetic preferences. In the first specification, we show that optimal oscillations require the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption to be high enough while the elasticity of labor needs to be low enough. At the same time, we prove that with a linear utility in leisure the modified golden rule is always saddle-point stable. In the second specification for preferences, we show that the local dynamic properties of the optimal path depend instead on the shares of consumption and leisure into total utility. We prove that endogenous fluctuations are even more likely with homothetic preferences.     

A time series analysis of real wages,consumption and asset returns

This paper re-examines whether the time series properties of aggregate consumption, real wages, and asset returns can be explained by a neoclassical model. Previous empirical rejections of the model have suggested that the optimal labour contract model might be appropriate for understanding the time series properties of the real wage rate and consumption. We show that an optimal contract model restricts the long-run relation of the real wage rate and consumption. We exploit this long-run restriction (cointegration restriction) for estimating and testing the model, using Ogaki and Park's (1989) cointegration approach. This long-run restriction involves a parameter that we call the long-run intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) for non-durable consumption but does not involve the IES for leisure. This allows us to estimate the long-run IES for non-durable consumption from a cointegrating regression. Tests for the null of cointegration do not reject our model. As a further analysis, our estimates of the long-run IES for non-durable consumption are used to estimate the discount factor and a coefficient of time-nonseparability using Hansen's (1982) Generalized Method of Moments. We form a specification test for our model à la Hausman (1978) from these two steps. This specification test does not reject our model. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Indeterminacy in discrete-time infinite-horizon models with non-linear utility and endogenous labor

We consider a discrete-time two-sector model with sector specific externalities in which the technologies are given by CES functions with asymmetric elasticities of capital–labor substitution, and the preferences of the representative agent are given by a CES additively separable utility function defined over consumption and leisure. We first show that when the labor supply is infinitely elastic, the steady state is always saddle-point stable, no matter what the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption and the size of externalities are. We then prove that when the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is sufficiently large, local indeterminacy requires a low enough elasticity of the labor supply.     

Volatility and welfare

This paper explores the relationship between volatility and welfare. Even though households prefer smooth streams of consumption and leisure, welfare can be increasing in the volatility of an exogenous driving force if factor supply is sufficiently elastic. We provide some analytical results for a model without capital, and do some quantitative exercises in a model with capital and a variety of shocks. Welfare is greater in high shock volatility regimes under plausible parameter values. Augmenting the model with features that increase the elasticity of factor supply extends the range of parameters over which higher volatility results in greater welfare.     

Optimal interest rate stabilization in a basic sticky-price model

This paper studies optimal monetary policy with the nominal interest rate as the single policy instrument. Firms set prices in a staggered way without indexation and real money balances contribute separately to households’ utility. The optimal deterministic steady state under commitment is the Friedman rule—even if the importance assigned to the utility of money is small relative to consumption and leisure. We approximate the model around the optimal steady state as the long-run policy target. Optimal monetary policy is characterized by stabilization of the nominal interest rate instead of inflation stabilization as the predominant principle.     

Interdependent preferences: an econometric analysis

The theoretical model of Gaertner (1974) and Pollak (1976) for the interdependence of preferences in the Linear Expenditure System is estimated for a cross-section of households. The interdependence of consumption of different households has implications for the stochastic structure of the model and for the identifiability of its parameters. Both aspects are dealt with. The empirical results indicate a significant role played by the interdependence of preferences. One of its implications is that predictions of the effects of changes in a household's exogenous variables differ according to whether the exogenous variable only changes for this household or for all households jointly. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cross-sectional implications of dynamic asset pricing with stochastic volatility and ambiguity aversion

Building on recent research that highlights the importance of macroeconomic volatility and ambiguity aversion in explaining the dynamics of stock returns, in this paper we propose a dynamic asset pricing model that simultaneously accounts for stochastic macroeconomic volatility and ambiguity, assuming that investors deal with uncertainty about the mechanics of macroeconomic fluctuations using first-release consumption and revisions to aggregate consumption on vintage data. Our results show that the proposed model captures a large fraction of the cross-sectional variation of excess returns for a wide range of market anomaly portfolios. Furthermore, while the price of risk for ambiguity is positive and significant for the vast majority of assets under study, macroeconomic volatility yields ambiguous outcomes, although it significantly increases the explanatory power of the model for specific assets. Our results suggest that macroeconomic volatility and ambiguity complement each other in explaining the cross-sectional behavior of stock returns.     

Relational consumption and nonlinear dynamics in an overlapping generations model

In this paper, we show that incorporating the relational dimension into an otherwise standard OLG model and focusing on dynamic leisure externalities leads to dramatically different predictions. Here, we show that when the old perceive private and relational consumption as substitutable goods, a series of interesting dynamic outcomes—such as local indeterminacy, nonlinear phenomena (including chaotic dynamics) and even multiple equilibria with global indeterminacy—may arise. We also draw some welfare implications and relate them to the well-known “happiness paradox” arising within contemporary affluent societies.     

Quantile-regression estimates of cigarette demand elasticities for the United States

Using a simple model and state-level cross-section U.S. data from 1993 to 1999, quantile-regression estimates of price elasticity and income elasticity for cigarette demand are obtained. It is noted that price elasticity shows a sizable variation across the high and low quantity-quartiles. There is a similar variability in the income elasticity, but most of these estimates lack statistical significance. Besides providing an indication of the variation in the price (and income) elasticity for different consumption levels, the exercise suggests some interpretative caution in regard to estimates from constant-elasticity models.     

Leisure activity and coping with stress: adolescents as case study

The purpose of this study is to explore the correlation between adolescent participation in leisure activity, its benefits, and coping with stress. Questionnaire surveys and structural equation model (SEM) were used for testing, and the analytical results showed that the model has good fit. The main findings of this study are: (1) youth participation in leisure activity would positively influence benefits of leisure activity; (2) participation in leisure activity has a significant positive correlation to adolescent coping with stress; (3) benefits of leisure activity has a significant positive influence on coping with stress. Research results showed that among participation in leisure activity, “kinetic activity” is the most important element for adolescent choice; among benefits of leisure activity, “enrich the quality of life” and “enhance self-worth” are most emphasized by adolescents. In terms of coping with stress, adolescents generally use “avoidance coping.” According to the research results, it is suggested that under the current social and cultural framework, promotion of adolescent participation in leisure activity can help them increase avoidance coping when faced with stress.     

Do I have to go shopping again? A theory of choice with movement costs

In this model, the standard theory of the one-person household is extended into space and time. The theory is extended into space by imposition of a real trip cost on the act of purchase, separate from the money price of commodities. It is extended into time by imposition of a real cost of storage (represented by “deterioration”) on the stocks of goods held in the household between shopping trips. The necessity for storage permits the theory to include an endogenous choice of capacity to store as well as choices among consumption, leisure, and shopping trip frequency. By use of duality theory, the comparative static effects of price, wage, and trip costs are examined. Production and transformation within the household are integrated into the model and shown to be covered by the dual approach.     

城市免费开放景区的规划与管理

城市景区免费开放为公民休闲拓展了更为广阔的平台,进一步促进了休闲的发展,同时,休闲活动也推动了景区旅游规划与管理模式的演进.当前,城市免费开放景区应展现其社会公益性,加强休闲情境塑造,注重资源节约与环境保护,体现景区与社会整体的和谐.     

闲暇效应与内生增长——基于中国和瑞典数据的分析研究

本文综合利用社会学与心理学的研究成果对闲暇的经济含义进行了扩展,认为闲暇对生产具有积极的互补效应,并通过将该类效应引入到带人力资本的卢卡斯内生增长模型,利用中国和瑞典的相关数据进行分析。本文的计量分析显示,瑞典的闲暇增加对经济增长具有正作用,但中国与此相反,因而瑞典的技术进步、人口状态等因素对增长的作用优于中国。最后,本文建议推动休闲经济发展、适时推进弹性工作制,实现"工作—闲暇平衡"。     

Jump tails,extreme dependencies,and the distribution of stock returns

We provide a new framework for estimating the systematic and idiosyncratic jump tail risks in financial asset prices. Our estimates are based on in-fill asymptotics for directly identifying the jumps, together with Extreme Value Theory (EVT) approximations and methods-of-moments for assessing the tail decay parameters and tail dependencies. On implementing the procedures with a panel of intraday prices for a large cross-section of individual stocks and the S&P 500 market portfolio, we find that the distributions of the systematic and idiosyncratic jumps are both generally heavy-tailed and close to symmetric, and show how the jump tail dependencies deduced from the high-frequency data together with the day-to-day variation in the diffusive volatility account for the “extreme” joint dependencies observed at the daily level.     

“Leisureship”: Impact of pursuing serious leisure on leaders' performance

An increasing number of individuals in leadership roles have a serious leisure interest. We develop a theoretical model of how pursuing serious leisure impacts leaders' performance at work. We propose that a serious leisure interest, through its defining characteristics (effort in mastering a skill, perseverance through adversity, a special ethos, a strong identity, a leisure career), can both promote and harm leaders' performance at work and we examine the conditions under which this can happen. Our theory contributes to research on non-work antecedents of leader performance, to the leader identity construction literature, to theories on the work-nonwork interface and to the serious leisure literature.     

银锣湾集团：致力“中国商业连锁第一品牌”

银锣湾（香港）集团公司旗下全资子公司,主营电器连接线生产销售,家用电子消费品研发生产销售,商业地产投资咨询,＂家庭式＂购物广场连锁经营,综合超市连锁经营,建筑装修装饰等业务的公司。该司秉承＂苦心成就他人,竭力完善自己＂的经营宗旨,弘扬＂品质尽善尽美,服务至诚至信＂的服务理念,将休闲娱乐和时尚购物相结合,整合商业地产资源和市场品牌资源,致力于缔造＂时尚、休闲、购物＂中国商业连锁第一品牌。该集团认为,现在大城市中心区商业竞争已的热化,要避开与大公司竞争,     

A collective labor supply model with complementarities in leisure: Identification and estimation by means of panel data

We present a novel identification strategy for a collective labor supply model that allows for complementarities in leisure (i.e., individuals may enjoy leisure more in company of their spouse). Individual preferences and the Pareto weights (which capture the intra-household bargaining process) are identified by making use of panel data with couples and individuals who became a widow(er) in the observation period, along with the assumption that an individual's preferences can only change in a particular manner after the spouse's death. The change in preferences comes from changes in observable variables that can be controlled for (like mental health) and from the loss of the possibility to jointly enjoy leisure after the couple's dissolution. We apply the model to American households coming from the first nine waves of the Health and Retirement Study (1992-2008) and show that complementarities in leisure are indeed important when modeling spouses' labor supply choices.