Expected shortfall assessment in commodity (L)ETF portfolios with semi-nonparametric specifications

ABSTRACT

This paper studies the risk assessment of semi-nonparametric (SNP) distributions for leveraged exchange trade funds, (L)ETFs. We applied the SNP model with dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) and EGARCH innovations, and implement recent techniques to backtest Expected Shortfall (ES) to portfolios formed by bivariate combinations of major (L)ETFs on metal (Gold and Silver) and energy (Oil and Gas) commodities. Results support that multivariate SNP-DCC model outperforms the Gaussian-DCC and provides accurate risk measures for commodity (L)ETFs.     

Commodity financialization and sector ETFs: Evidence from crude oil futures

We investigate the diversification benefits of energy assets in the setting of commodity financialization using data on crude oil futures and Sector ETFs (SPDRs). Correlations between commodities and financial assets increased during the post-Commodity Futures Modernization Act (CFMA)/commodity bull cycle period, resulting in lower benefits of diversification. However, we find that conditional correlations between crude oil futures and sector ETFs meaningfully increased only since the 2008–09 financial crisis. The results therefore suggest that the financial crisis, rather than CFMA regulation, explains changes in the diversification benefits of commodities. Moreover, we find that oil futures returns are less correlated with SPDRs than with the S&P index. Thus, energy futures, and crude oil in particular, offer the potential for diversification benefits in sector-style investing.     

Premiums and discounts in ETFs: An analysis of the arbitrage mechanism in domestic and international funds

We study premiums/discounts associated with ETFs using the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process augmented with jumps. Our results confirm the high efficiency of the ETFs' arbitrage pricing mechanism. The median long-term mean premium of U.S. equity ETFs is zero. International equity ETFs and bond ETFs face more barriers to arbitrage, which results in higher long-term mean premiums and lower speeds of adjustment. Enhancing the mean-reverting process with jumps improves the model fit. The probability of jumps is the highest for international equity ETFs.     

A comparison of extreme value theory approaches for determining value at risk

This paper compares a number of different extreme value models for determining the value at risk (VaR) of three LIFFE futures contracts. A semi-nonparametric approach is also proposed, where the tail events are modeled using the generalised Pareto distribution, and normal market conditions are captured by the empirical distribution function. The value at risk estimates from this approach are compared with those of standard nonparametric extreme value tail estimation approaches, with a small sample bias-corrected extreme value approach, and with those calculated from bootstrapping the unconditional density and bootstrapping from a GARCH(1,1) model. The results indicate that, for a holdout sample, the proposed semi-nonparametric extreme value approach yields superior results to other methods, but the small sample tail index technique is also accurate.     

ETF Premiums and Liquidity Segmentation

Exchange traded funds (ETFs) provide a means for investors to access assets indirectly that may be accessible at a high cost otherwise. I show that liquidity segmentation can explain the tendency for ETFs to trade at a premium to net asset value (NAV) as well as the life‐cycle pattern in premiums. ETFs with larger NAV tracking error standard deviations (TESDs) tend to trade at higher premiums and the liquidity benefits offered by foreign ETFs and fixed income ETFs are revealed to be the most valuable to investors. Further tests validate that TESD has the desirable properties of a liquidity segmentation measure.     

EX‐DIVIDEND DAY PRICE BEHAVIOR OF EXCHANGE‐TRADED FUNDS

We document that for exchange‐traded funds (ETFs), the price falls on average by the dividend amounts on the ex‐dividend day, and there are significantly positive abnormal volumes. This is because trading in ETFs entails lower transaction costs and lower risk than trading in equity closed‐end funds (CEFs) and individual stocks. Similar results are also found for equity CEFs. However, regression analyses indicate that transaction costs and risk are indeed negligible for ETFs but not for equity CEFs and that risk remains important for a sample of stocks matched based on transaction costs. Overall, the results support the short‐term traders hypothesis.     

Is competition beneficial? The case of exchange traded funds

New ETF creation has surged in recent years, giving investors the option to choose from a wide range of similar ETFs within each group of competitors. We identify groups of ETFs that can be considered direct competitors and examine the impact of competition on their market quality. Results show improved market quality measures when competition increases. A change equivalent to going from a monopoly to a highly competitive market results in a 29% decrease in bid–ask spreads, a 72% decrease in illiquidity, and a 52% increase in turnover. However, we find that competition has a differential impact on ETFs according to their market depth. Market quality improves with competition for large or well-performing ETFs, while it worsens for small or under-performing ETFs. A case study on ETFs banned by the SEC in March 2010 further highlights our results in the artificially controlled competitive environment of the moratorium.     

The impact of multilateral trading facilities on price discovery: Further evidence from the European markets

This study examines relative price discovery for three major European indices, FTSE, CAC, and DAX, their futures and exchange traded funds (ETFs) using the data on 5‐minute intraday transaction prices over a four‐year period. We computed both Hasbrouck (1995) information share with error bounds and Gonzalo and Granger's (1995) common factor weights approach. Gonzalo and Granger's (1995) common factor weights suggest the index futures contracts play a dominant role in price discovery in the CAC market: the CAC 40 index futures lead the price discovery and Lyxor CAC 40 ETFs serving the second resort for information transmission. This could be due to the less frequent trading of ETFs. More importantly, CAC40 under the Gonzalo & Granger (1995) test shows upper and lower error bounds in good range may be the main reason to drive for the meaningful results. In contrast, the upper and lower bounds estimated from the Hasbrouck (1995) are far distant for most cases. Finally, FTSE and DAX markets offer compelling evidence to show that ETFs lead price discovery and spots and futures follows.     

The Effect of the Alternation in the Ruling Party on Three-Factor Risks and Returns in ETF: The Case of Presidential Elections in Taiwan

This study discusses the effect of alternation in the ruling party in presidential elections on three-factor risks and returns of the three main exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Taiwan, which has an unclearly defined international status and whose citizens have the right to vote directly for the president. We find that after the ruling party has been determined, in the period between Election Day and inauguration day, both the stock market and ETFs show a slight rise in prices. This suggests that most investors are initially optimistic after the election results have been announced. Meanwhile, the reverse book-to-market risk value deteriorates significantly. These results indicate that political uncertainty increases the risk premium of market factors and reverse book-to-market factors for some ETFs.     

Performance comparison between exchange-traded funds and closed-end country funds

The objective of this study is to compare the risk and return performance of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) available for foreign markets and closed-end country funds. We utilize 29 closed-end country funds (CEFs) for 14 countries over the sample period from April 1996 to December 2001. The performance proxies are mean returns and risk-adjusted returns. Results indicate that ETFs exhibit higher mean returns and higher Sharpe ratios than foreign closed-end funds, while CEFs exhibit negative alphas. This indicates that a passive investment strategy utilizing ETFs may be superior to an active investment strategy using CEFs. The findings reported here offer some insight on the relative advantages of each type of investment. Specifically, there may be some potential for additional types of ETFs that offer higher risk-adjusted returns than closed-end funds. Such ETFs may be able to offer higher risk-adjusted returns as part of an internationally diversified portfolio.     

The effect of liquidity and arbitrage on the price efficiency of Chinese ETFs

We study the potential factors that determine the large and persistent price deviations in Chinese equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Our results suggest that ETF liquidity and arbitrage activity are positively correlated with ETF price efficiency, and the relation is more pronounced with higher institutional ownership. We also evaluate the effect of two exogenous shocks in the Chinese market. Using a policy change that added market makers to ETFs on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) and Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), we find that market makers improve price efficiency and that the impact is stronger for ETFs with lower liquidity. We also exploit a change in trading rules on the SZSE and show that the relaxation of arbitrage restrictions improves price efficiency. Altogether, these findings provide evidence that lack of liquidity, due to the unique market structure and regulations of the Chinese market, contributes to price inefficiency of Chinese ETFs.     

The effect of ETFs on financial markets: a literature review

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) belong to the fastest growing investment products worldwide. Within 15 years, total assets invested in ETFs have twenty-folded, reaching over $3.7 trillion at the end of 2018. Increasing demand for passive investments, coupled with high liquidity and low transaction costs, are key advantages of ETFs compared to their closest substitutes such as traditional index funds. Besides the continuous growth of ETFs, the Flash Crash in 2010 triggered detailed investigations by regulators on how ETFs affect the financial market. This literature review provides a broad overview of recent academic studies analyzing the effect of ETFs on liquidity, price discovery, volatility, and comovement of the underlying securities.

     

The liquidity of active ETFs

Active exchange traded funds (ETFs) are less liquid than their underlying portfolios. We attribute this finding, which contrasts with that for passive ETFs, to uncertainty about the future holdings of active ETFs. In addition, while diversification generally reduces firm-specific information asymmetry and improves portfolio liquidity, it impairs the liquidity of active ETFs, consistently with the substitution effect between diversification and liquidity documented in the literature. We show that the gap between active ETF and underlying liquidity varies cross-sectionally and over time and can be explained by differences in size and volume between ETFs and their underlying portfolio, by ETF age, and by ETF pricing errors.     

Hidden Gem or Fool’s Gold: Can passive ESG ETFs outperform the benchmarks?

Using a unique and extensive dataset of 121 socially responsible investing (SRI) equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from January 2010 to December 2020, this study examines how passive SRI ETFs perform compared with their non-SRI benchmarks composed of S&P500 ETFs. Over the full sample period, our results show that an equally weighted SRI ETF portfolio underperforms its benchmark portfolio. Notably, we do not find significant differences in the two portfolios’ performance in the second half of our sample period. However, in the last two years, the SRI ETF portfolio significantly outperforms the benchmark. For the SRI investment strategies, we show that positive screening (or inclusion) rather than negative screening (or exclusion) can beat the benchmark portfolio. In particular, environmental inclusion screen provides significantly higher abnormal returns. Finally, we find that SRI ETFs’ performance can be explained by increasing industry competition and declining market concentration.     

Credit ETFs in Mutual Funds and Corporate Bond Liquidity

We show that high yield (HY) mutual funds own and trade ETFs to manage liquidity needs driven by fund flows, whereas investment grade (IG) funds do not. The use of ETFs by HY mutual funds to manage liquidity shifts some trading away from bonds and into ETFs, which reduces the liquidity of the underlying bonds. This substitution effect outweighs the better-understood inclusion effect, whereby bond liquidity benefits from increased ETF ownership, such that the net effect of ETFs is to reduce HY liquidity. In IG, the substitution effect is not significant and ETFs result in increased bond liquidity.     

Actively managed mutual funds holding passive investments: What do ETF positions tell us about mutual fund ability?

We provide the first in-depth examination of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) within actively managed mutual fund (AMMF) portfolios to better understand why AMMFs make substantial investments in passive ETFs. We examine the association between holding ETF positions and AMMF performance, as well as indirect measures of performance, including market timing, flow management, and cash holdings. We find that over one-third of AMMFs take an ETF position between 2004 and 2015. Our results indicate that AMMFs allocating large portions of their portfolio to ETFs perform worse, by between 0.41% and 1.63% annually using various performance measures. These AMMFs also exhibit worse market timing and hold more cash. In contrast, AMMFs that hold ETFs in small amounts have similar characteristics to non-user AMMFs. Therefore, the act of holding an ETF does not signal inferior ability, however, taking large ETF positions does.     

Do ETFs provide effective international diversification?

Global investments have been a hot issue for years. Investors can diversify risks and obtain benefits from foreign markets by investing directly in the foreign security market or indirectly in Exchange-Trade Funds (ETFs). Because direct investments are not always feasible, we investigate whether indirect investments can replace direct investments. We create different regional optimal portfolios containing ETFs and ensure optimal asset portfolio allocation. In addition to mean-variance approach, the Sharpe index, we also adopt the Campbell et al. (2001) method to have the efficient frontier under control risks, the Value at Risk. We apply both normal and non-normal distributions for comparisons and find that different assumptions of return distributions affect the results of efficient frontier. The results show that international diversification is a reasonable strategy. In addition, when comparing ETFs and target market index portfolios, ETFs have higher Sharpe measures than target market indices especially in the emerging markets. However, there are no significant performance differences between direct and indirect methods even if we use different performance measures. We also find that the diversification benefits are the same before and after the Subprime crisis. We conclude that it is effective for investors to use indirect methods to create internationally diversified portfolios.     

Short interest in exchange-traded funds

Short selling exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has become a common means of speculating or hedging in response to pessimistic expectations about a specific market or sector, as the short interest of ETFs is more than 10 times that of individual stocks, on average. We determine that sector-based ETFs have an abnormally large short interest level, whereas international ETFs have an unusually small short interest level. The level of short interest is larger for ETFs that have a higher trading volume and a lower market capitalization, regardless of the type of ETF assessed. The level of short interest is lower for ETFs representing indexes that have tradable derivatives, but higher for international ETFs representing indexes that have tradable derivatives. We also determine that the level of short interest in an ETF serves as an effective signal of bearish sentiment when considering all ETFs, but is not an effective signal when isolating any particular type of ETF.

Do pricing efficiencies in Indian equity ETF market impact its performance?

We examine the pricing efficiency of domestic exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the Indian equity market where growth co-exists with operating inefficiencies. The ETFs, on average, outperform their fund benchmarks, but the magnitudes of the premium (discount) and tracking error are considerably higher for a synchronously traded market. Among the ETF categories based on fund benchmarks, thematic and broad market ETFs have higher tracking errors and discounts than strategy and sectoral ETFs. We find a nonsignificant negative relationship between discount and redemption units, implying that the creation/redemption process remains unaffected by the prevailing discount in the market. Despite low arbitrage constraints, market participants fail to curtail the prevailing tracking error and discount. This study highlights the operational constraints of arbitrageurs in the Indian ETF market.     

Funding liquidity and equity liquidity in the subprime crisis period: Evidence from the ETF market

Using index and financial exchange-traded funds (ETFs), this study explores the relation between funding liquidity and equity liquidity during the subprime crisis period. Our empirical results show that a higher degree of funding illiquidity leads to an increase in bid–ask spread and a reduction in both market depth and net buying imbalance. Such findings indicate that an increase in funding liquidity can improve equity liquidity, with a stronger effect for the financial ETFs than for the index ETFs. Our study provides a better overall understanding of the effect of the liquidity–supplier funding constraint during the subprime crisis period.