Monetary policy regimes and the term structure of interest rates

US monetary policy is investigated using a regime-switching no-arbitrage term structure model that relies on inflation, output, and the short interest rate as factors. The model is complemented with a set of assumptions that allow the dynamics of the private sector to be separated from monetary policy. The monetary policy regimes cannot be estimated if the yield curve is ignored during estimation. Counterfactual analysis evaluates importance of regimes in policy and shocks for the great moderation. The low-volatility regime of exogenous shocks plays an important role. Monetary policy contributes by trading off asymmetric responses of output and inflation under different regimes.     

Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using A Markov Switching Dynamic Nelson and Siegel Model

We estimate versions of the Nelson–Siegel model of the yield curve of US government bonds using a Markov switching latent variable model that allows for discrete changes in the stochastic process followed by the interest rates. Our modeling approach is motivated by evidence suggesting the existence of breaks in the behavior of the US yield curve that depend, for example, on whether the economy is in a recession or a boom, or on the stance of monetary policy. Our model is parsimonious, relatively easy to estimate and flexible enough to match the changing shapes of the yield curve over time. We also derive the discrete time non‐arbitrage restrictions for the Markov switching model. We compare the forecasting performance of these models with that of the standard dynamic Nelson and Siegel model and an extension that allows the decay rate parameter to be time varying. We show that some parametrizations of our model with regime shifts outperform the single‐regime Nelson and Siegel model and other standard empirical models of the yield curve. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How Stable is the Forecasting Performance of the Yield Curve for Output Growth?*

We provide an extensive evaluation of the predictive performance of the US yield curve for US gross domestic product growth by using new tests for forecast breakdown, in addition to a variety of in‐sample and out‐of‐sample evaluation procedures. Empirical research over the past decades has uncovered a strong predictive relationship between the yield curve and output growth, whose stability has recently been questioned. We document the existence of a forecast breakdown during the Burns–Miller and Volker monetary policy regimes, whereas during the early part of the Greenspan era the yield curve emerged as a more reliable model to predict future economic activity.     

Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data

This paper proposes the use of forecast combination to improve predictive accuracy in forecasting the U.S. business cycle index, as published by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the NBER. It focuses on one-step ahead out-of-sample monthly forecast utilising the well-established coincident indicators and yield curve models, allowing for dynamics and real-time data revisions. Forecast combinations use log-score and quadratic-score based weights, which change over time. This paper finds that forecast accuracy improves when combining the probability forecasts of both the coincident indicators model and the yield curve model, compared to each model's own forecasting performance.     

Global yield curve dynamics and interactions: A dynamic Nelson–Siegel approach

The popular Nelson–Siegel [Nelson, C.R., Siegel, A.F., 1987. Parsimonious modeling of yield curves. Journal of Business 60, 473–489] yield curve is routinely fit to cross sections of intra-country bond yields, and Diebold–Li [Diebold, F.X., Li, C., 2006. Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields. Journal of Econometrics 130, 337–364] have recently proposed a dynamized version. In this paper we extend Diebold–Li to a global context, modeling a potentially large set of country yield curves in a framework that allows for both global and country-specific factors. In an empirical analysis of term structures of government bond yields for the Germany, Japan, the UK and the US, we find that global yield factors do indeed exist and are economically important, generally explaining significant fractions of country yield curve dynamics, with interesting differences across countries.     

Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach

This paper establishes robust dynamic features of the worker reallocation process in the US labor market. I use structural VARs with sign restrictions, which take the form of restricting the short‐run negative relationship between vacancies and unemployment (i.e., Beveridge curve). Despite the ‘weakness’ of these restrictions, they reveal a clear, unambiguous pattern that, when unemployment increases and vacancies drop, (i) both the separation rate and gross separations rise quickly and remain persistently high, (ii) the job finding rate and vacancies drop in a hump‐shaped manner, and (iii) gross hires respond little initially, but eventually rise. These results point to the importance of job loss in understanding US labor market dynamics. This pattern also holds with respect to different kinds of shocks that induce the same Beveridge curve relationship. This paper also considers the ‘disaggregate model’, which uses data disaggregated into six demographic groups and incorporates transitions into and out of the labor force. I show that the separation rate continues to play a dominant role among prime‐age male workers, while, for other groups, changes in the job finding rate are more important. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Yield curve in an estimated nonlinear macro model

This paper estimates a sticky price macro model with US macro and term structure data using Bayesian methods. The model is solved by a nonlinear method. The posterior distribution of the parameters in the model is found to be bi-modal. The degree of nominal rigidity is high at one mode (“sticky price mode”) but is low at the other mode (“flexible price mode”). I find that the degree of nominal rigidity is important for identifying macro shocks that affect the yield curve. When prices are more flexible, a slowly varying inflation target of the central bank is the main driver of the overall level of the yield curve by changing long-run inflation expectations. In contrast, when prices are more sticky, a highly persistent markup shock is the main driver. The posterior probability of each mode is sensitive to the use of observed proxies for inflation expectations. Ignoring additional information from survey data on inflation expectations significantly reduces the posterior probability of the flexible price mode. Incorporating this additional information suggests that yield curve fluctuations can be better understood by focusing on the flexible price mode. Considering nonlinearities of the model solution also increases the posterior probability of the flexible price mode, although to a lesser degree than using survey data information.     

Adaptive dynamic Nelson–Siegel term structure model with applications

We propose an Adaptive Dynamic Nelson–Siegel (ADNS) model to adaptively detect parameter changes and forecast the yield curve. The model is simple yet flexible and can be safely applied to both stationary and nonstationary situations with different sources of parameter changes. For the 3- to 12-months ahead out-of-sample forecasts of the US yield curve from 1998:1 to 2010:9, the ADNS model dominates both the popular reduced-form and affine term structure models; compared to random walk prediction, the ADNS steadily reduces the forecast error measurements by between 20% and 60%. The locally estimated coefficients and the identified stable subsamples over time align with policy changes and the timing of the recent financial crisis.     

IDENTIFICATION ISSUES IN LIMITED‐INFORMATION BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURAL MACROECONOMIC MODELS

The likelihood of the parameters in structural macroeconomic models typically has non‐identification regions over which it is constant. When sufficiently diffuse priors are used, the posterior piles up in such non‐identification regions. Use of informative priors can lead to the opposite, so both can generate spurious inference. We propose priors/posteriors on the structural parameters that are implied by priors/posteriors on the parameters of an embedding reduced‐form model. An example of such a prior is the Jeffreys prior. We use it to conduct Bayesian limited‐information inference on the new Keynesian Phillips curve with a VAR reduced form for US data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting the US term structure of interest rates using a macroeconomic smooth dynamic factor model

We extend the class of dynamic factor yield curve models in order to include macroeconomic factors. Our work benefits from recent developments in the dynamic factor literature related to the extraction of the common factors from a large panel of macroeconomic series and the estimation of the parameters in the model. We include these factors in a dynamic factor model for the yield curve, in which we model the salient structure of the yield curve by imposing smoothness restrictions on the yield factor loadings via cubic spline functions. We carry out a likelihood-based analysis in which we jointly consider a factor model for the yield curve, a factor model for the macroeconomic series, and their dynamic interactions with the latent dynamic factors. We illustrate the methodology by forecasting the U.S. term structure of interest rates. For this empirical study, we use a monthly time series panel of unsmoothed Fama–Bliss zero yields for treasuries of different maturities between 1970 and 2009, which we combine with a macro panel of 110 series over the same sample period. We show that the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and the yield curve data has an intuitive interpretation, and that there is interdependence between the yield and macroeconomic factors. Finally, we perform an extensive out-of-sample forecasting study. Our main conclusion is that macroeconomic variables can lead to more accurate yield curve forecasts.     

Identifying the new Keynesian Phillips curve

Phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. The hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) describes how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real aggregate demand drive the current inflation rate. This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of the NKPC under Generalized Method of Moments and traces this syndrome to a lack of higher‐order dynamics in exogenous variables. We employ analytic methods to understand the economics of the NKPC identification problem in the canonical three‐equation, new Keynesian model. We revisit the empirical evidence for the USA, the UK, and Canada by constructing tests and confidence intervals based on the Anderson and Rubin ( 1949 ) statistic, which is robust to weak identification. We also apply the Guggenberger and Smith ( 2008 ) LM test to the underlying NKPC pricing parameters. Both tests yield little evidence of forward‐looking inflation dynamics. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns

This paper considers a variety of econometric models for the joint distribution of US stock and bond returns in the presence of regime switching dynamics. While simple two‐ or three‐state models capture the univariate dynamics in bond and stock returns, a more complicated four‐state model with regimes characterized as crash, slow growth, bull and recovery states is required to capture their joint distribution. The transition probability matrix of this model has a very particular form. Exits from the crash state are almost always to the recovery state and occur with close to 50% chance, suggesting a bounce‐back effect from the crash to the recovery state. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Intelligible factors for the yield curve

We construct a factor model of the yield curve and specify time series processes for these factors, so that the innovations are mutually orthogonal. At the same time, the factors are such that they assume clear, intuitive interpretations. The resulting “intelligible factors” should prove useful for investment professionals to discuss expectations about yield curves and the implied dynamics. Moreover, they allow us to distinguish announced changes of the monetary policy stance versus monetary policy surprises, which we find to be rare. We identify two such events, namely September 11, 2001, and the Fed reaction to the sub-prime crisis of 2007.     

The deterministic shift extension and the affine dynamic Nelson–Siegel model

The affine dynamic Nelson–Siegel model links the affine class of models with the Nelson–Siegel interpolation scheme of the yield curve. Its parameters are interpreted as the latent factors of the spot rate process driven by an affine diffusion. Using an appropriate specification of this diffusion, the yields become in form of the Nelson–Siegel model but an adjustment term is introduced. In this paper, the model is extended using a deterministic shift extension so as to perfectly fit the term structure and reduce the correction term. This enhancement allows to simulate the yield curve and the spot rate process consistently with the market data used for the calibration of the model. A numerical example discusses the calibration results of the original model and the proposed extension.     

Yield curve responses to market sentiments and monetary policy

Central banks recently started to target longer term interest rates. The empirical failure of the rational expectations theory of the yield curve, however, limits its applicability to monetary policy analysis. The success of agent-based behavioral asset pricing models and behavioral macroeconomic models in replicating statistical regularities of empirical data series motivates to apply them to yield curve modeling. This paper analyses how the interaction of monetary policy and market sentiments shape the yield curve in a behavioral model with heterogeneous and bounded-rational agents. One result is that the behavioral model replicates empirical facts of term structure data. Moreover, it overcomes one major deficiency of rational expectations models of the yield curve in explaining the empirically observed uncertain responses of longer term yields to changes in the central bank rate. These are explained by the behavioral model’s ability to generate different responses of market sentiments to shocks at different times which lead to a variety of interest rate responses. Further results of this paper can be used as policy advice on how central banks can target the level, slope and curvature of the yield curve by targeting market sentiments about inflation and the business cycle.     

Urban growth and decline in a hierarchical system A supply-oriented dynamic approach

In this paper a dynamic simulation model of urban growth and decline is presented, where innovation at the urban scale is crucial. The model is characterized in terms of supply conditions of the different functions or bundles of goods produced at the different ranks of the urban hierarchy. Urban dynamics depends on the form of the net location benefits curve, in relation to urban size and rank, and it is constrained by demand or market size conditions. Both urban growth and decline are linked to the presence of location benefits and the appearance of innovations or new production.     

COVID-19 related media sentiment and the yield curve of G-7 economies

We explore the connectedness of the components of the sovereign yield curve (slope, level and curvature) across G-7 countries and media sentiment about COVID-19. The recent pandemic is a unique opportunity to identifying the transmitters and receivers of risk. Our results indicate that media sentiment along with the US yield curve components are main transmitter of spillovers, whereas Japan is the leading recipient of spillover. Among the European countries, we notice France as a major transmit, whereas Germany and UK switch role as transmitter and receiver alternatively. The results are important for mapping the interconnectedness between countries. In addition, policy makers can use them when devising disaster plans to prepare for future market crises.     

The maturity structure of term premia with time-varying expected returns

This paper analyzes the maturity structure of term premia using McCulloch’s US Treasury yield curve data from 1953–91, allowing expected returns to vary across time. One, 3, 6, and 12 month holding period returns on maturities up to 5 years are projected on 3 ex ante variables to compute time-varying expected returns, and simulations are employed to generate distributions of conditionally expected return premia. The likelihood of expected returns monotonically increasing in maturity (as implied by the liquidity preference hypothesis) is relatively high when the yield curve is steep and interest rates are high, and with longer holding periods, but low in other cases. The hypothesis that intermediate maturity bonds have the highest expected returns (a “hump-shaped” maturity-return pattern) around the onset of recessions does not receive much support.     

Identifying the source of dynamics in disaggregated import data

This paper uses Kennan's (1988) model to separately identify supply-side and demand-side dynamics in US import data. Dynamics arise from both autocorrelated shocks to supply- and demand-side fundamentals, and from lagged adjustment to these shocks. The model consists of a pair of partial adjustment models in which consumers and producers each attempt to follow a stochastic target level of imports subject to a quadratic adjustment cost. The model is applied to quarterly data on US imports of seven narrowly defined commodities: Autos, Beer, Cameras, Wine, Cigars, Tea, and Soap. Two main results emerge. First, adjustment costs are important on both sides of the market. Second, supply-side adjustment costs are larger than demand-side adjustment costs. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.