The structure of dynamic correlations in multivariate stochastic volatility models

This paper proposes two types of stochastic correlation structures for Multivariate Stochastic Volatility (MSV) models, namely the constant correlation (CC) MSV and dynamic correlation (DC) MSV models, from which the stochastic covariance structures can easily be obtained. Both structures can be used for purposes of determining optimal portfolio and risk management strategies through the use of correlation matrices, and for calculating Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts and optimal capital charges under the Basel Accord through the use of covariance matrices. A technique is developed to estimate the DC MSV model using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure, and simulated data show that the estimation method works well. Various multivariate conditional volatility and MSV models are compared via simulation, including an evaluation of alternative VaR estimators. The DC MSV model is also estimated using three sets of empirical data, namely Nikkei 225 Index, Hang Seng Index and Straits Times Index returns, and significant dynamic correlations are found. The Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model is also estimated, and is found to be far less sensitive to the covariation in the shocks to the indexes. The correlation process for the DCC model also appears to have a unit root, and hence constant conditional correlations in the long run. In contrast, the estimates arising from the DC MSV model indicate that the dynamic correlation process is stationary.     

建立人民币离岸中心的现实性分析及前景展望

离岸市场是经营境外货币存、贷业务的市场,它在推进国际金融一体化的过程中发挥了巨大的作用,现已发展成为国际金融市场的重要组成部分。随着中国经济的不断走强,人民币的国际化必然是大势所趋,在这一过程中,人民币离岸中心的建立虽然会给现存的金融制度带来一定的冲击和风险,但其建立已经具有了现实的市场基础和需求,积极作用是主流。因此,只要监管得当,人民币离岸中心的建立将对我国金融业的发展起到良性的促进作用。     

离岸人民币市场与人民币的国际化进程

人民币的国际化不仅是中国经济发展的结果,也是经济发展的需要.离岸人民币规模的日益扩大,离岸人民币业务的开展和离岸市场的建立,都将对人民币国际化产生深刻影响.考虑到目前人民币的开放程度,我国资本项目的开放进程,宜在香港建立人民币离岸中心,通过人民币的区域化进而实现人民币的国际化,是人民币成为国际通货、融入全球的最现实的选择.     

Similarity of emerging market returns under changing market conditions: Markets in the ASEAN-4, Latin America,Middle East,and BRICs

We studied the risk-return distances of 18 emerging stock markets in the period from January 2000 to December 2013. Distances are linked to volatility and time-varying correlations estimated in standard and asymmetric DCC models. Our results revealed a positive relationship between risk-return distances and volatility, which means that during more volatile periods, the risk-return characteristics in emerging markets exhibit lower similarity to the characteristics found in developed markets. This result seems to be in sharp contrast to most empirical studies using correlations. Within the portfolio framework, our results suggest that diversification into emerging stock markets may still provide desirable benefits to international investors.     

数字人民币跨境支付：现实动因、制度困境与规则建构

数字人民币作为一种新型货币形态,演变成为一种数字化的价值符号,其底层科技具有天然的跨境属性,契合了人民币国际化的现实需要。数字人民币点对点支付特性、数字钱包载体以及可编程模式,既可弥补现行跨境支付模式缺陷,又有利于重构全球跨境支付体系格局,提升人民币在国际货币体系中的话语权和影响力。但数字人民币跨境支付仍面临法律依据与域外效力确认、货币替代与主权冲突、运行模式与结算标准分散、国际监管与纠纷解决机制缺失等制度困境。为此,应统筹推进数字人民币国内立法与国际规则同步建设,推动国家间货币主权的让渡与货币互换网络建设,加强跨境支付技术标准与规则的国际协同,建构国际监管与纠纷解决机制,补齐数字人民币跨境支付制度短板。     

人民币国际化的金融监管探析

人民币国际化是中国经济发展的必然选择。人民币国际化的过程是人民币业务、机构、交易网络国际化的过程。人民币国际化对中国的经济制度、金融体系和金融市场的改革与发展都提出了更高的要求。在人民币国际化过程中,金融监管框架必然需要根据人民币国际化的进程动态进行调整。这就从监管体制、监管目标和监管手段等方面对我国金融监管提出了新的课题。     

人民币国际化、汇率变动与人民币FDI关系研究

基于国际货币循环角度,分析人民币国际化、汇率变动与人民币FDI的互动关系,结果表明：人民币国际化程度的提高会使人民币产生升值压力,人民币升值会促进人民币国际化;人民币国际化和人民币FDI之间存在相互促进的关系;人民币贬值引起人民币FDI规模增加,人民币FDI对人民币汇率的影响不显著。     

人民币国际化及其对中欧关系的影响

RMB internationalization is significant to China, to the international monetary system, and to the develop-ment of China-EU relations. It can reduce the exchange rate risk of Chinese enterprises, impro...     

Export discoveries, diversification and barriers to entry

The literature on the relationship between economic diversification and development established that diversification rises with development up to a point. Some have argued that market failures reduce private investments that are necessary to find out whether a new product can be exported profitably, thus implying that the threat of entry can reduce export discoveries and consequently hamper diversification. In parallel, the trade literature on the “extensive margin” of trade has focused on the role of fixed costs of exporting, which affects the number and types of firms that enter into exporting activities. This article presents data suggesting that export diversification and export discoveries are correlated over the course of development, and it provides an empirical test of market failures that might deter export discoveries. The findings suggest that the threat of entry by imitators reduces the number of export discoveries within countries and industries for a given rate of growth of non-discovery exports. However, this market-failure effect is less pronounced when allowing for inter-industry spillovers, whereby export discoveries in one industry lead to discoveries in another industry. The policy implication is that barriers to entry should not be used to protect innovators from the threat of imitation, but governments could consider interventions that directly focus on stimulating export discoveries.     

国际金融市场波动溢出效应与动态相关性

在DCC GARCH、DCC EGARCH、DCC TGARCH方法下,采用中、美、日、德、英等国家1993年1月至2013年12月的金融数据,实证得出如下结论：样本国市场利率和股指波动率呈现尖峰、肥尾、有偏的特征,更为符合t分布。样本国市场利率波动表现出显著的溢出效应、杠杆效应和联动效应。样本国股指波动率对中国股指波动率的溢出效应趋于增强,特别在美国金融危机后。样本国利率波动对中国股指波动率具有一定的溢出效应和杠杆效应,但影响程度非常低。治理世界性金融风险,各国当局应加强政策协调性,合理进行风险分担。     

Estimation Bias and Inference in Overlapping Autoregressions: Implications for the Target‐Zone Literature*

Samples with overlapping observations are used for the study of uncovered interest rate parity, the predictability of long‐run stock returns and the credibility of exchange rate target zones. This paper quantifies the biases in parameter estimation and size distortions of hypothesis tests of overlapping linear and polynomial autoregressions, which have been used in target‐zone applications. We show that both estimation bias and size distortions of hypothesis tests are generally larger, if the amount of overlap is larger, the sample size is smaller, and autoregressive root of the data‐generating process is closer to unity. In particular, the estimates are biased in a way that makes it more likely that the predictions of the Bertola–Svensson model will be supported. Size distortions of various tests also turn out to be substantial even when using a heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation‐consistent covariance matrix.