New insights into the role of global factors in BRICS stock markets: A quantile cointegration approach

Because of the acceleration in marketization and globalization, stock markets in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries are affected by various global factors, for example, oil prices, gold prices, global stock market volatility, global economic policy uncertainty, financial stress, and investor sentiment. This paper offers new insights into the short- and long-run linkages between global factors and BRICS stock markets by applying the quantile autoregressive distributed lags (QARDL) approach. This novel methodology enables us to test short- and long-run linkages accounting for distributional asymmetry. That is, the nonlinear dynamic relationship between the global factors and BRICS stock prices depends on market conditions. Our empirical results show that the effects of gold prices and global stock market volatility on BRICS stock prices are more significant in the long run than in the short run. A decrease in global stock market volatility is associated with higher stock prices, while gold prices demonstrate upward co-movement in dynamic correlations with stock markets. Irrational factors, such as economic policy uncertainty, financial stress, and investor sentiment, play a critical role in the short term, and negative interdependence is dominant. Finally, the rolling-window estimation technique is used to examine time-varying patterns between major global factors and BRICS stock markets.     

Asymmetric information and term lending in the Euro money market: Evidence from the beginning of the turmoil

We address the role of information heterogeneity in the Euro interbank market for unsecured term lending. We use high-frequency quotes of bid and ask prices to estimate probabilities of informed trading for contract maturities from one month to one year. The dataset spans from November 2000 to March 2008, and includes the relevant events that characterize the developments of the euro area money market. We find that the probability of finding a trading counterparty with a wider information set has risen since the eruption of the turmoil. Our results also show that the probability of trading with a better-informed bank is higher on days when open market operations take place, and at the end of the maintenance period. This effect has strengthened during the turmoil. This suggests that the loose supply of money of the ECB has not dampened the distortions arising from asymmetric information in the unsecured money market.     

Money,random matching and endogenous growth: A quantitative analysis

In this study, we develop a search-and-matching monetary growth model to analyze the effects of inflation on economic growth and social welfare by introducing endogenous economic growth via capital externality into a two-sector search-and-matching model. We find that the channel through which inflation affects economic growth in the search-and-matching model is different from the traditional cash-in-advance model. To facilitate the calibration, we obtain an empirical estimate of the effects of inflation on economic growth using panel regressions. In the simulation analysis, we quantitatively evaluate the welfare effect of inflation in the search-and-matching endogenous growth model and compare it to a search-and-matching exogenous growth model. We find that the welfare effect of inflation is nonlinear in the endogenous growth model whereas it is linear in the exogenous growth model. Furthermore, we find that the welfare cost of inflation under endogenous growth is up to four times as large as the welfare cost of inflation under exogenous growth.     

Derivatives market and economic growth nexus: Policy implications for emerging markets

The derivatives market plays a crucial role in an economy. However, its link to economic growth and macroeconomic factors seem to be insufficiently covered in academic research despite the publication of many empirical studies on the causality of finance and growth. Recently, many emerging markets, such as Vietnam, have decided to establish a derivatives markets for risk management to ensure stability in the economy. This paper investigates the dynamic relationship among these key variables using up-to-date panel data on 17 countries, for which required data are available until 2017. This study yields various findings. First, bidirectional Granger causality between derivatives markets and economic growth exists internationally. Second, using panel vector autoregression, impulse-response functions, variance decomposition techniques as well as panel econometrics estimations, we find that trade openness and government spending have more effects on the derivatives market than economic growth and inflation. Third, we document that the derivatives market has a more integrated direct relationship with economic growth and macroeconomic factors in high-income countries than their upper-middle-income counterparts. These new findings are essential for consideration by policy makers in emerging markets in relation to the development of their derivatives markets.     

Market‐oriented institutions and policies and economic growth: A critical survey

Abstract.  This paper surveys recent evidence suggesting that market‐oriented institutions and policies are strongly related to economic growth, focusing on studies using the economic freedom (EF) indicator of the Fraser Institute. This index is critically discussed. Also various serious shortcomings of empirical studies using this index are identified. Nevertheless, there are strong indications that liberalization, i.e. an increase in the EF index, stimulates economic growth. This paper also reviews studies on the determinants of EF. Political liberalization is often found to enhance economic liberalization, whereas there is less evidence for causality running in the other direction.     

The relationship between trade,FDI and economic growth in Tunisia: An application of the autoregressive distributed lag model

The relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness and economic growth in host countries remains one of the most important issues in the economic literature and met with renewed interest in recent years mainly for countries suffering from unemployment problems and lack of technological progress. This paper examines this issue for Tunisia by applying the bounds testing (ARDL) approach to cointegration for the period from 1970 to 2008. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run when foreign direct investment is the dependent variable. The associated equilibrium correction is also significant, confirming the existence of a long-run relationship. The results also indicate that there is no significant Granger causality from FDI to economic growth, from economic growth to FDI, from trade to economic growth and from economic growth to trade in the short run. Even though there is a widespread belief that FDI can generate positive spillover externalities for the host country, our empirical results fail to confirm this belief for the case of Tunisia. They go against the generally accepted idea considering the positive impact of FDI on economic growth to be automatic. The results found for Tunisia can be generalized and compared to other developing countries which share a common experience in attracting FDI and trade liberalization.     

The non-observed economy and economic growth: A meta-analysis

Academics, politicians, the public in general and researchers have great interest in the non-observed economy. However, there is divergence in its definition, accounting methodology and economic effects. In this paper we conduct a meta-analysis on the empirical literature that estimates the impact of the parallel economy on economic growth. We conclude that there is no publication bias and that the average effect of the parallel economy on economic growth is insignificant. However, the reported effects differ considerably with the type and number of countries included in the sample of primary studies, the structure of the data, the methodology used to measure the parallel economy, the number of citations of primary studies, and the year they were published.     

Postponement strategy for international transfer of products in a global supply chain: A system dynamics examination

This paper contributes to research on “postponement” strategy in the context of a global production–distribution system of an automobile manufacturer. It proposes a model that integrates multiple considerations germane to global supply chains. Postponement is important in this context because it is necessary to consider international transfers and tariffs, and it is important to appropriately account for the impact of postponement on total costs. Consideration of several key variables such as shipping point, customs tariff, and cost differences between countries is essential to derive full benefits from postponement strategy in global supply chains. International transfer of goods among countries in global automobile industry is complex and dynamic because of the multitude of factors that must be considered. The paper develops insights regarding postponement strategy in global supply chains via a system dynamics simulation model. The model draws on the experiences of a Korean automobile manufacturer with operations in developing and developed countries.     

Foreign direct investment and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A nonlinear analysis

Using the threshold regression model, we examine the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and the mediating role of FDI absorptive capacity, on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. We find that the threshold level of FDI inflows per person is approximately US$ 44.67 per annum. For FDI to have an appreciable impact on economic growth, countries must have minimum capacity to absorb the growth-enhancing benefits of FDI. For instance, the technology gap between the hosted foreign enterprises and domestic enterprises should be no less than 0.6904. Thus, achieving the FDI threshold level is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for economic growth. Some countries use tax incentives to improve FDI inflows. We argue that such incentives may be counterproductive at low levels of FDI inflows: FDI coefficient estimates below the lowest threshold level are negative, implying that the higher costs of such incentives exceed the potential benefits availed by FDI’s direct contribution to economic output and spillovers.     

Heterogeneous expectations,boom-bust housing cycles,and supply conditions: A nonlinear economic dynamics approach

We combine a standard stock-flow housing market model, incorporating explicit relationships between house prices, the housing stock, and the rent level, with a parsimonious expectation formation scheme of housing market investors, reflecting an evolving mix of extrapolative and regressive expectation rules. The model results in a two-dimensional discrete-time nonlinear dynamical system. Based on realistic parameters, the model is able to generate endogenous boom-bust housing market dynamics with lasting periods of overvaluation and overbuilding. We thus exploit our model to investigate how real forces, in particular supply conditions, interact with expectations-driven housing market fluctuations.     

Public spending,public governance and economic growth at the Vietnamese provincial level: A disaggregate analysis

This study examines the role of economic governance in the relationship between public spending, private investment, and economic growth in Vietnam at the provincial level. The study data consist of sixty-two Vietnamese provinces for the period 2006–2015. Some notable results are attained by applying a sequential (two-stage) estimation. First, the marginal benefits to economic growth of increased Vietnamese provincial government expenditures may be constrained because of the inefficiency of expenditures on education, business services, and public administration. Second, public spending and private investment are found to be substitutes at the provincial level. Third, based on the Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI) ranking, used as a proxy for provincial public governance in Vietnam, the significance of public governance can be observed. The study concludes that good governance, characterized by different attributes, such as lower informal charges, greater transparency, and unbiased policy, plays a critical role in improving the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Vietnamese provinces, particularly through its interactions with private sector investment.     

Impact of epidemic outbreaks (COVID-19) on global supply chains: A case of trade between Turkey and China

COVID-19 has negative impacts on supply chain operations between countries. The novelty of the study is to evaluate the sectoral effects of COVID-19 on global supply chains in the example of Turkey and China, considering detailed parameters, thanks to the developed System Dynamics (SD) model. During COVID-19 spread, most of the countries decided long period of lockdowns which impacted the production and supply chains. This had also caused decrease in capacity utilizations and industrial productions in many countries which resulted with imbalance of maritime trade between countries that increased the freight costs. In this study, cause and effect relations of trade parameters, supply chain parameters, demographic data and logistics data on disruptions of global supply chains have been depicted for specifically Turkey and China since China is the biggest importer of Turkey. Due to this disruption, mainly exports from Turkey to China has been impacted in food, chemical and mining sectors. This study is helpful to plan in which sectors; the actions should be taken by the government bodies or managers. Based on findings of this study, new policies such as onshore activities should consider to overcome the logistics and supply chain disruptions in global supply chains. This study has been presented beneficial implications for the government, policymakers and academia.     

Exploring the linkage between human capital and economic growth: A look at 141 developing and developed countries

As a factor of production, human capital is defined both in its health and educational dimensions, incorporating qualitative and quantitative aspects. Using a panel of 141 countries (93 developing and 48 developed), we attempt to explore and compare the impact of human capital on economic growth at different development stages. For our estimation, we employ the System Generalized Methods of Moments (SGMM) for the period 1980–2008. Our findings reveal that all aspects of human capital positively influence growth in developing countries, especially life expectancy gain, which may be explained by the demographic transition these countries are going through. However, the scenario is different for developed countries, where increased life expectancy posits a drag on economic growth, probably because of the increasingly aging population and dependency ratio. Only when life expectancy is omitted does health expenditure, along with other educational measures of human capital, help sustain growth in developed countries.     

The dimension,nature and distribution of economic insecurity in European countries: A multidimensional approach

Economic insecurity is a key well-being outcome because the anticipation of future economic distress reveals itself as a true threat to current well-being. Insecurity has been shown to affect quality of life and to change an individual’s consumption, fertility, labor supply and even political support decisions to mitigate risk. This paper provides evidence on the dimension, nature and distribution of economic insecurity for 27 European countries during a whole decade by using a multidimensional individual approach that considers both objective and subjective indicators. The young, the less educated and the unemployed living in households with dependent children have significantly higher levels of economic insecurity everywhere. However, insecurity affects the population in the middle class only in some countries but not in others, and the level of insecurity in liberal regimes is more linked to large income losses than elsewhere. The role of objective versus subjective dimensions is larger in post-transition Eastern European regimes than in long-standing capitalist countries.     

Efficiency,growth and market power in the banking industry: New approach to efficient structure hypothesis

We extend the work of Homma, Tsutsui, and Uchida (2014) to provide empirical evidence on nexus of relationships in efficient structure (ES) hypothesis. In this framework, we test causality from cost efficiency to bank growth and then from bank growth to market concentration. We apply this approach to banking industry in Association of South East Asian (ASEAN) over the period of 1999–2014. The efficiency scores have been estimated by employing Slack Based Measurements Data Envelopment Analysis (SMB DEA). We apply Two-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Panel Vector Auto Regression (PVAR) to account for endogeneity in estimation models. The results show that cost efficiency enables the banks to grow and obtain higher market share. The resultant growth then leads to higher market concentration/bank market power. There is also some evidence to support for quiet life (QL) hypothesis. Therefore, both ES and QL hypotheses may coexist in ASEAN banking industry.