Who speaks louder,financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil

Analyzing sovereign risk measures for Brazil, we observe that credit rating agencies are more cautious and conservative than the market to report risk rating improvements, and more rigorous in assigning better risk ratings. In turn, evidence suggest interest rates reflect sovereign risk conditions. However, to date, no study has assessed which measure of sovereign risk has the greatest impact on the yield curve. Using data from March 2004 to August 2019, we investigate whether interest rates respond differently to different sovereign risk measures in Brazil. As a novelty, the results indicate that credit rating agencies “speak louder” in affecting interest rates, i.e., they proved to have greater capacity to affect the yield curve. Therefore, the importance of these agencies is not limited only for financial markets, but also for policymakers, as the slope of the yield curve acts as a leading indicator of the business cycle.     

股票久期与资产组合的利率风险度量

股票利率风险的定量研究在中国尚不多见。论文采用久期技术探讨了资产组合利率风险测量与管理问题。论文创新之处在于建立了一个基于股权自由现金流的股票久期微观模型,对微观模型和基于消费资产定价的股票宏观久期进行了比较,以这两个模型为依据,计算出我国上证50指数成分股的总体久期值分别为18和25。     

对加入WTO后我国利率市场化改革进程的思考

我国现行利率形成机制的失效及对经济的抑制要求利率市场化改革.以加入世贸为标志,中国必将更深入地融入全球经济一体化之中,中国的非市场化的利率形成机制也将由于与WTO的各项规则冲突而受到巨大冲击.内外因素的共同作用必将加快利率市场化改革的进程.     

浅析企业利用金融衍生工具管理外汇风险

2012年4月16日起,人民币兑美元汇率波动幅度由千分之五扩大至百分之一;未来一段时期人民币兑美元双向波动态势将进一步增强,企业所面临的外汇风险的管理难度将增大。如何增强外汇风险管理的能力已经成为每个企业的首要任务,而金融衍生工具的使用是企业规避外汇风险、加强外汇风险管理的重要方法之一。本文通过分析企业利用金融衍生工具管理外汇风险存在的问题,探究其原因,最后提出解决问题的方法。     

后金融危机时期汇率波动对中国股票市场的影响

自加入世界贸易组织后,中国一直致力于经济全球化与市场一体化进程的深入和发展,使得中国与各国经济的联系越来越紧密。然而,在如今的后国际金融危机时期中,为应对新一轮全球金融市场的剧烈变化,各个国家对外汇风险问题予以极大的忧虑和持续的关注,而中国政府和企业同样对于外汇风险及其所产生的影响十分敏感。因此,随着世界经济形势的骤变以及中国汇率体制改革的不断推进,研究汇率波动对中国股票市场影响是十分必要的。     

系统重要性保险机构的评估与监管——国际实践与中国探索

本文就全球系统重要性保险机构的评定思路、评定方法以及监管框架建设的最新动态进行了较为全面系统的梳理和总结,并以此为出发点对我国建立国内系统重要性保险机构监管体系的现实环境和可能产生的影响进行了分析,论证了建立国内系统重要性保险机构监管体系的必要性和可行性。最后,结合国外的实践经验和对国内情况的具体分析,就监管框架的进一步完善提出了建议。     

MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE: SURVEYING THE SURVEYABLE

Abstract.  This paper surveys recent advances in empirical studies of the monetary transmission mechanism, with special attention to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our results indicate that the strength of the exchange rate pass-through substantially declined over time mainly due to a fall in inflation rates and to some extent due to the so-called composition effect. The asset price channel is weak and is likely to remain weak because of shallow stock and private bond markets and because of low stock and bond holdings of domestic households. House prices may become an exception with booming mortgage lending and with high owner occupancy ratios. While the credit channel could be a powerful channel of monetary transmission – as new funds raised on capital markets are close to zero in CEE – it is actually not, as both commercial banks and non-financial corporations can escape domestic monetary conditions by borrowing from their foreign mother companies. The moderately good news, however, is that those banks and firms are influenced by monetary policy in the euro area because their parent institutions are themselves subjected to the credit channel in the euro area.     

The interest rate spreads in the Czech Republic: Different loans,different determinants?

We analyze the determinants of interest rate spreads of different loan categories in the Czech Republic during 2004–2011. We employ a detailed bank supervisory dataset that allows us to construct the actual spreads for four loan categories, namely small and large corporate loans, consumer loans and mortgages, on a monthly basis. Our regression analysis shows that bank and macroeconomic characteristics matter more for setting the spreads for small corporate loans and mortgages rather than for large corporate loans and consumer loans. Interest rate risk determines the spreads for all loan categories. The global financial crisis has, to a certain extent, increased the responsiveness of spreads to interest rate risk and liquidity risk.     

对金融衍生品监管思路的反思

金融衍生品监管的重要性随着美国次贷危机和欧债危机的爆发而凸显,对金融衍生品监管技术的调整笔者认为重在思路的变革。笔者通过对金融衍生品技术的分析和监管失灵的总结指出虚拟经济条件下,信息不对称并不是导致金融危机的最主要的原因,危机的爆发有其深刻的社会根源,变更思路方是防微杜渐的不二法门。     

How effective is monetary transmission in low-income countries? A survey of the empirical evidence

This paper surveys the evidence on the effectiveness of monetary transmission in low-income countries. It is hard to come away from this review with much confidence in the strength of monetary transmission in such countries. We distinguish between the “facts on the ground” and “methodological deficiencies” interpretations of the absence of evidence for strong monetary transmission. We suspect that “facts on the ground” are an important part of the story. If this conjecture is correct, the stabilization challenge in developing countries is acute indeed, and identifying the means of enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy in such countries is an important challenge.     

Should the monetary policy rule be different in a financial crisis?

This article reviews the finding that standard loss functions in output and inflation are higher during discretionary periods than in periods during which monetary policy is described by a rule, such as the Taylor rule. It shows that the finding is consistent with earlier research, but argues that we really do not know if the Taylor rule would have improved performance during the recent financial crisis. The article then considers modifications of policy rules to deal with changes in interest rate spreads, credit aggregates and banks׳ balance sheets.     

The pricing of credit risk derivatives

This paper considers the pricing of derivatives that protect holders of corporate bonds from a reduction in their value because of a deterioration in their credit quality. These derivatives are structured as either puts on the bond price or calls on the bond spread (above the risk free rate) in the context of models developed by Merton (1974) and Black and Cox (1976). The pricing properties of these options are derived using both analytical and numerical methods.     

金融工程在现代银行风险管理体系构建中的应用

文章对金融工程与风险管理作简要介绍,并阐述金融工程在各项风险管理中的应用,最后针对我国银行应用金融工程管理风险中存在的问题提出建议,指出应构建现代银行风险管理体系。