Inflation and interest rate derivatives for FX risk management: Implications for exporting firms under real wealth

Firms that export goods face risks such as product price, cost, and exchange rate risks. Price and cost risks can substantially reduce the FX hedging performance in real wealth. We thus investigate hedging strategies that are intended to improve the performance of the FX hedge in real terms using inflation and interest rate derivatives. The impact of these additional instruments is not clear and has only been briefly analyzed in the hedging literature so far. For this purpose, we derive variance-minimizing hedge positions of an exporting firm. A cointegrated VAR and bootstrap methods are used to evaluate the efficiencies of several hedging strategies. While inflation derivatives work better in the short run, interest rate derivatives perform better over longer hedge horizons.     

Interest rate risk propagation: Evidence from the credit crunch

During the 2007–2009 financial crisis, US subprime mortgage risk exposures led to severe liquidity problems in several other foreign markets. Such risk contagion was caused by enormous changes in interest rates. Although risk contagion has been investigated by several literatures, the magnitude of propagated interest rate risk around global financial markets remains unexplored. Therefore, this study quantifies the degree to which the increased credit risk within the US financial system propagated to the European markets’ liquidity risks. Specifically, using a conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) model, we quantitatively measure interest rate risk of a European country, by looking at the upside risk in distribution of changes in interest rate. And such propagation risk measure considers additional value-at-risk conditional on the interest rate movements in the US. The results show significantly positive differences between European country's value-at-risk conditional on the US financial markets being in a normal or distressed state. This propagating effect increased from 2007, and was particularly pronounced in the 2008–2009. In addition, the interest rate risk contagion is especially severe for some countries in the Euro regions with greater sovereign debt problems. Hence our result foretells the deterioration of the European sovereign debt crisis which started to unfold in 2010. Our work supplements the literature by successfully quantifying the magnitude of additional interest rate risk conditional on risk exposure from external sectors.     

Risk management in life insurance companies: Evidence from Taiwan

The solvency issue of life insurance companies has become more important in recent years as business risks turn increasingly greater. This study examines the relationship among investing risk, underwriting risk, and the capital ratio during the post risk-based capital regulation period of 2004–2009 in Taiwan. In addition to the two-stage least square regression (2SLS), we also adopt the two-stage quantile regression (2SQR) to capture the effects of low capital (or risk) levels and high capital (or risk) levels. 2SLS do not fully explain the capital-risk relation. Contrary to previous evidence reported in the U.S., our findings in 2SQR model indicate that the relationship between capital and underwriting risk is positive, while the relationship between investing risk and capital shows a reverse pattern. Overall, the 2SQR provides stronger evidence than the 2SLS.     

Interest rate and bank stock returns asymmetry: Evidence from U.S. banks

We use the multivariate extension of Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (EGARCH) of Nelson, Econometrica, 59: 347–370, 1991 to test for spillover effects and examine the extent of asymmetries between short- and long-term interest rates and portfolios of money center, large, and medium-size banks in the U.S. Our results indicate the existence of price and volatility spillovers from short- and long-term interest rates to the three bank portfolios. We also provide evidence of response asymmetries for the portfolios of money center and large banks, suggesting that money center and large banks are more sensitive to negative than positive short- and long-term interest rate changes.

Time-varying risk aversion and renminbi exchange rate volatility: Evidence from CARR-MIDAS model

In this paper, we investigate the relation between time-varying risk aversion and renminbi exchange rate volatility using the conditional autoregressive range-mixed-data sampling (CARR-MIDAS) model. The CARR-MIDAS model is a range-based volatility model, which exploits intraday information regarding the intraday trajectory of the price. Moreover, the model features a MIDAS structure allowing for time-varying risk aversion to drive the long-run volatility dynamics. Our empirical results show that time-varying risk aversion has a significantly negative effect on the long-run volatility of renminbi exchange rate. Moreover, we observe that both intraday ranges and time-varying risk aversion contain important information for forecasting renminbi exchange rate volatility. The range-based CARR-MIDAS model incorporating time-varying risk aversion provides more accurate out-of-sample forecasts of renminbi exchange rate volatility compared to a variety of competing models, including the return-based GARCH, GARCH-MIDAS and GARCH-MIDAS incorporating time-varying risk aversion as well as range-based CARR, CARR-MIDAS and heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR), for forecast horizons of 1 day up to 3 months. This result is robust to alternative risk aversion measure, alternative MIDAS lags as well as alternative out-of-sample periods. Overall, our findings highlight the value of incorporating intraday information and time-varying risk aversion for forecasting the renminbi exchange rate volatility.     

股票久期与资产组合的利率风险度量

股票利率风险的定量研究在中国尚不多见。论文采用久期技术探讨了资产组合利率风险测量与管理问题。论文创新之处在于建立了一个基于股权自由现金流的股票久期微观模型,对微观模型和基于消费资产定价的股票宏观久期进行了比较,以这两个模型为依据,计算出我国上证50指数成分股的总体久期值分别为18和25。     

Consumption insurance and entrepreneurial risk: Evidence from Italian micro-data

Using cross-sectional data from the Bank of Italy's Survey on Household Income and Wealth, we make an attempt to assess the relevance of entrepreneurial risk, i.e., idiosyncratic risk borne by firm owners while running their operations. Our new testing procedure will show that progressively more articulated forms of entrepreneurship do not enjoy a larger degree of risk sharing and will suggest some links between a larger or smaller degree of consumption insurance and variables such as net wealth, asset holding, and net indebtedness. The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the corresponding institutions.     

Corporate carbon risk exposure,voluntary disclosure,and financial reporting quality

The study examines whether corporate carbon risk exposure is associated with financial reporting quality and whether voluntary carbon disclosure mediates the relationship. We analyze data drawn from firms traded on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), for the period 2011 to 2015. We document robust evidence that firms with higher carbon risk exposure tend to provide financial statements of poorer quality (i.e., direct effect) and this association is partially mediated through voluntary carbon disclosure (i.e., indirect effect). The overall negative association between corporate carbon risk exposure and the firm's financial reporting quality is partly explained by the quality of voluntary carbon disclosure.     

The nexus between country risk and exchange rate regimes: A global investigation

Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984–2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.     

The influence of managers' awareness of climate change,perceived climate risk exposure and risk tolerance on the adoption of corporate responses to climate change

Uncertainties posed by climate change limit companies' ability to understand implications of global warming on business and society at large, hampering the adoption of tangible organizational responses to climate change. Understanding climate action thus requires to investigate influential factors of decision-making under uncertainty, which implies acknowledging managerial interpretations and perceptions about climate issues. Drawing insights from the literature on climate inaction and from corporate sustainability literature, the present study examines awareness of climate change and perceived exposure to climate risks as antecedents of corporate responses to climate change, drawing on a survey of managers of Italian manufacturing companies. In addition, the study tests the moderation of risk tolerance on the relation between perceived climate risk exposure and climate action, suggesting that risk attitudes are a significant factor of decision-making under climate uncertainty. The results support the hypothesis of the model and thus provide several contributions to the literature on business and climate change. Managerial implications and avenues for future research are also discussed.     

Efficiency and stock returns: evidence from the insurance industry

This study investigates whether the capital market values the efficiency of firms. After tracing stock returns and efficiency changes of 399 listed insurance firms in 52 countries during the 2002–2008 period, the paper reports a positive and statistically significant relationship between profit efficiency change and market adjusted stock returns. However, there is no robust evidence that cost efficiency change is associated with stock returns.     

Factors influencing bank risk in Europe: Evidence from the financial crisis

We use a dynamic panel data model to analyze bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank risk for a large sample of commercial banks operating in the euro area. The selected time span, from 2001 to 2012, considers the impact of the on-going financial and economic crisis on the Eurozone banking system. Our results indicate that capitalization, profitability, efficiency and liquidity are inversely and significantly related to bank risk. However, the recourse to wholesale funding by banks seems to increase their risk. We also find that less-concentrated markets, lower interest rates, higher inflation rates and a context of economic crisis (with a falling GDP) increase bank risk.     

Contingent factors of the coinsurance function of internal capital markets: Evidence from the US nonlife insurance industry

By analyzing intragroup reinsurance activities in the US nonlife insurance sector from 1999 to 2016, we provide evidence that the coinsurance function of internal capital markets is contingent on internal capital providers’ financial resources and the relative sizes of capital receivers within the group. We demonstrate that insurance groups commonly use intragroup reinsurance (a substitute for capital) to support insurers that sustain underwriting losses. Larger insurers are more likely to obtain internal reinsurance if their affiliated insurers hold more financial resources. Our findings show that the financial capabilities of group members providing support affect the feasibility of the coinsurance function through the activities of internal capital markets. Group members with greater influence are more likely to benefit from the coinsurance function.     

Funding liquidity risk and the low-volatility anomaly: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market

We investigate whether the funding liquidity risk to institutional investors influences the negative relation between expected returns and variance (the ‘‘Low-volatility anomaly’’). With the Taiwan stock market as a setting, we implement a multivariate Markov switching model and use the funding liquidity risk to model the time-varying transition probabilities of the regime-switching process to capture changes in the funding liquidity risk regime. Our evidence documents that the low-volatility anomaly is most pronounced when there is high funding liquidity risk. When there is low funding liquidity risk, however, the low-volatility anomaly has a significant reversal. These results imply that the increased funding liquidity risk due to financial shock transmitted from parent banks is associated with higher selling pressure on institutional investors’ high-volatility stocks, leading to the low-volatility anomaly.     

贷款利率浮动区间扩大与银行授信业务风险性研究

本文建立并比较了两种不同贷款利率条件下的信贷市场模型,对我国银行授信业务中存在的风险问题进行了研究。得出结论,只有扩大贷款利率浮动区间,才能使利率成为银行信贷业务中的甄别机制,并对我国利率市场化改革问题提出了政策建议。     

The relationship between oil prices,the stock market and the exchange rate: Evidence from Mexico

This paper analyzes the variables of oil price, exchange rate and stock market index to explain how they interact with each other in the Mexican economy. The examined period includes monthly data from January 1992 to June 2017. A Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) is implemented that includes oil prices, the nominal exchange rate, the Mexican stock market index, and the consumer price index. Results indicate that the exchange rate has a negative and statistically significant effect on the stock market index; this indicates that an appreciation of the exchange rate is related to an increase in the stock market index. It is also found that the consumer price index has a positive effect on the exchange rate and a negative effect on the stock market index. The results also indicate that oil prices are statistically significant against the exchange rate, concluding that an increase in oil prices creates an appreciation of the exchange rate. In addition, the impulse-response functions show that the effects found tend to disappear over time.     

我国保险公估业的现状及发展对策分析

公估业的发展在保险市场中扮演着重要的角色,是我国保险业完善与发展的必然要求。但公估业在我国发展起步晚,且发展缓慢,因此需要我们正确分析保险公估发展前景的利弊,以确保公估业在我国健康发展。     

Extreme risk transmission channels between the stock index futures and spot markets: Evidence from China

We develop a skewness-dependent multivariate conditional autoregressive value at risk model (SDMV-CAViaR) to detect the extreme risk transmission channels between the Chinese stock index futures and spot markets. The proposed SDMV-CAViaR model improves the forecast performance of extreme risk by introducing the high-frequency realized skewness. Specifically, the realized skewness has a significant impact on the spillovers, but the realized volatility and realized kurtosis do not, which implies that the jump component plays an important role in extreme risk spillovers. The empirical results indicate there are bidirectional extreme risk spillovers between the stock index futures and spot markets, the decline of one market has direct and indirect channels to exacerbate the extreme risk of the other market. Firstly, the market decline will directly increase the extreme risk of related markets by decreasing market returns. Besides, the decline will indirectly increase the extreme risk by increasing the negative realized skewness and extreme risk spillovers.     

Time-frequency co-movements between oil prices and interest rates: Evidence from a wavelet-based approach

This paper investigates time–frequency co-movements between crude oil prices and interest rates. To test this relationship, the study applied a continuous wavelet and cross wavelet approaches to data from West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices and interest rates in the United States (U.S.). Results from the sample period revealed significant relationships, in the intermediate term, between WTI crude oil prices and U.S. interest rates. Moreover, co-movements between oil price and interest rate variables were especially sensitive during abnormal political events and periods of financial ‘meltdown’. We further use Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC) and Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC) methods to investigate the impacts of five major control variables namely GDP growth, unemployment, three-month Treasury bill, CPI index and industrial production index. The results show a powerful impact of control variables on oil-interest rates co-movements under different frequencies. Finally, we show evidence of co-integrating long run relationship between oil markets and control variables. These results have important implications for energy investors and policy makers.     

Risk signal, financial derivatives transactions and the Indonesian GAAP

Motivated by the accounting events of firm＇s default related to derivatives and other financial instruments transactions, this study is aimed to investigate the capability of accounting information to signal the risks associated with the use of financial derivatives for hedging. Hypothesis are developed based on the theory and empirical evidences of manager＇s motive to use derivatives for hedging （Berkman ＆ Bradbury, 1968; Dune, et al., 2003） as well as signaling theory of accounting information （Ball ＆ Brown, 1968; Beaver ＆ Dukes, 1972; Jensen ＆ Meckling, 1976; Megginson, 1997）. The hypotheses are formulated in the Ordinary Least Square model. The study uses Statistical Product and Service Solutions （SPSS） version 14 as software to conduct the statistical tests. Non-bank and non-financial institutions firms with financial derivatives transactions listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange during 2001 to 2006 are chosen as the sample. Determinations of the time frame has considered the timing of introduction of revisions of accounting standard on derivatives and other financial instruments in Indonesia PSAK 50 Financial Instruments： Presentations and Disclosures which was published in July, 1998, as well as PSAK 55 Financial Instruments： Recognition and Measurements which was published in 1998. Based on the sample selections procedure and the completeness of the data required by the model, 24 firms listed during 2001-2006 or equal to 66 firm-years observations were identified as the data to be tested. Empirical evidences suggests that Indonesian GAAP is capable of providing signal associated with： （1） Fair value exposures related to manager＇s motive to reduce the cost of financial distress; （2） Cash flow exposures related to manager＇s motive to practice tax arbitrage as well as to overcome underinvestment problems; （3） Interest rate risks related to manager＇s motive to avoid the risk default due to limitations of debt covenants; （4） Forex risk related to manager＇s motive to control forex exposures caused by foreign operations as well as foreign sales.