The roles of cultural and institutional distance in international trade: Evidence from China's trade with the Belt and Road countries

Cultural distance and institutional distance have been playing increasingly significant roles in international trade. Recently, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by China has drawn worldwide attention. This paper examines the roles of cultural distance and institutional distance in China's trade relationship with the Belt and Road (B&R) countries. We estimate the extended gravity model using bilateral trade data at product-level during 2002–2016 between China and 99 trading partners, 38 of which are along the Belt and Road. Using Poisson generalized estimating equations (GEE) econometric methods, we find that firstly, cultural distance and institutional distance inhibit China's bilateral trade with the Belt and Road countries. Secondly, China's bilateral trade with the B&R countries is more sensitive to the change of cultural distance than institutional distance by comparing their beta coefficients. Thirdly, compared to Asian countries on the Belt and Road, bilateral trade flows between China and European countries show less sensitivity to changes in cultural distance, except China's imports from its trading partners. While the trade effects of institutional distance show no difference between China's trade with European countries and Asian countries. Lastly, the announcement of BRI does reduce trade-inhibiting effect of cultural distance on China's trade with the Belt and Road countries, while increase China's exports sensitivity to institutional distance. This study finally suggests relevant cultural exchange driven by the BRI eventually assisting unimpeded trade and deepening the cooperation.     

Dodging Adverse Selection: How Donor Type and Governance Condition Aid’s Effects on School Enrollment

We employ AidData to test the effects of primary-education aid on school enrollment. We argue that the problem of adverse selection complicates both the allocation and the effectiveness of aid. We hypothesize that bilateral donors ought to have greater freedom to condition aid on recipient governance quality than multilateral donors, which are often bound by institutional rules to provide aid more impartially. Compared to their multilateral counterparts, bilateral donors may have advantages in overcoming adverse selection, resulting in bilateral aid’s boosting enrollments to a greater degree. AidData’s extensive coverage of multilateral aid enables this analysis for up to 100 low- and low-middle-income countries from 1995 to 2008. Latent growth regression analysis suggests that, compared to multilateral donors, bilateral donors indeed condition their primary education aid on recipient control of corruption and that bilateral aid is significantly related to improved enrollments.     

Does Korea follow Japan in foreign aid? Relationships between aid and foreign investment

Korea, an emerging donor country, largely considers its economic relations to recipients when allocating its aid. Such practices were preceded by Japan before the 1990s. We expect those similar practices between the two countries will make resemblance in aid outcomes. On a macro-level, we show similarities in aid allocations by type, region, income, and sector. The similarities are ascertained also at a micro-level by our statistical analysis on the relationships between aid and FDI. The analysis based on the FDI gravity model and panel dynamic system GMM estimation shows that only aids from Korea and Japan create more inflow of FDI into their respective recipient developing countries. Those are contrasted with other donors’ aids, which are not related to FDI or the substitute for FDI.     

FDI and productivity convergence in Central and Eastern Europe: an industry-level investigation

This paper presents empirical evidence of the effect of FDI inflows on productivity convergence in Central and Eastern Europe, using a new and harmonized industry-level data set. Four conclusions stand out. First, there is a strong convergence effect in productivity, both at the country and at the industry level. Second, FDI inflow plays an important role in accounting for productivity growth. Third, the impact of FDI on productivity critically depends on the absorptive capacity of recipient countries and industries. Fourth, there is important heterogeneity across countries, industries and time with respect to some of the main findings.     

Does Aid Unpredictability Weaken Governance? Evidence from Developing Countries

This paper examines the effects of aid on governance from a different perspective by asserting that aid unpredictability can potentially increase corruption in recipient countries by providing incentives to risk‐averse and corrupt political leaders to engage in rent‐seeking activities. Analyses of data from 80 developing countries over the period 1984–2004 offer evidence that higher aid unpredictability is associated with more corruption as measured by a synthetic index. We also find further evidence that this latter impact is more severe in countries with weak initial institutional conditions. These findings are a supplementary advocacy for the need for better management and better predictability of aid flow in developing countries.     

FDI,labor market flexibility and employment in China

This paper discusses the influence and underlying mechanisms of foreign direct investment (FDI) and the labor market on Chinese employment. We analyze data from 30 Chinese provinces and municipalities over the period 2000–2015, in the first instance to examine employment effects of both FDI and labor market flexibility through the moderating effect; here we verify the moderating effect with respect to labor market flexibility. Second, using subsamples, we explore the effects of regional and skill differences on the employment. Finally, to test the three mechanisms, we employ a mixed model of moderating and mediating effects. Contrary to previous studies, we observe a positive employment effect of FDI, with labor market flexibility playing a significant positive moderating role, a 1% increase in FDI is associated with an expected employment increase of 0.216. Additionally, wages, human capital, and R&D investment play positive mediating roles when labor market flexibility moderates the employment effect of FDI.     

FDI引进与中国区域制度变迁的互动机制研究——来自中国各地区的经验证据

对我国各区域2004年和2008年8个制度因素指标的实证比较分析发现,我国东、中、西部地区制度变迁呈梯度递减趋势,西部地区制度变迁严重滞后;对我国各地区8个制度因素2001—2003年当期、滞后一期、滞后二期24个因子与FDI引进关系进行的计量经济检验表明,FDI在我国三大区域的聚集与制度因素呈显著的相关性;利用1984—2008年数据对制度因素与FDI的因果关系检验表明,制度变迁与FDI的引进存在双向因果关系。根据实证研究结论,各地区在FDI的引进中要重视制度软环境的建设,尤其是西部地区应主动进行强制性制度变迁,通过制度环境的改善吸引FDI流入,进而以FDI来带动西部地区的制度演进,最终形成制度变迁和FDI相互促进、相互推动的良性循环,以此缩小地区差距,实现区域经济的协调和均衡发展。     

国际援助再分类及其对受援国经济增长的异质性影响

国际援助对受援国的经济影响在学界并没有一致的答案，文章从不同类型国际援助的影响具有异质性的角度再次探讨这一问题。文章的主要工作有两点：一是对援助类型的重新分类；二是根据新分类的援助，实证分析不同类型援助的异质性影响。首先，基于中观经济学对生成性资源的分类方式，文章提出资源配对援助法，将国际援助分为了商业性援助、开发性援助和公益性援助三类，并与经合组织债权人申报系统相衔接，建立了分类后的国际援助数据集。然后，在实证分析部分，分别研究了援助总规模和不同类型国际援助对受援国经济发展的影响。结果发现，援助总规模对受援国的经济正向影响显著。同时，开发性援助和公益性援助存在门槛效应和滞后性，两者都有显著的正向影响，而且开发性援助对受援国经济发展促进作用要强于公益性援助。     

Aid and trade

This paper surveys the recent theoretical and empirical literaturethat explores the relations between aid and trade and asks aboutthe complementarity or substitution effects at work. We distinguishbetween the effects of aid on trade flows and on trade policies,of the donor as well as the recipient countries. Special focusis given on trade facilitation, or ‘aid for trade’.     

Does foreign aid promote recipient exports to donor countries?

This paper uses the gravity model of trade to investigate the effect of foreign aid on exports of aid recipients to donor countries. Most of the theoretical work emphasises the possible negative impact of aid on recipient countries’ exports, primarily due to exchange rate appreciation, disregarding possible positive effects of aid in overcoming supply bottlenecks and promoting bilateral trade relations. Using non-stationary panel (cointegration) estimators to control for omitted variable and endogeneity bias, we find that the net effect of aid on recipient countries’ exports is insignificant, both for our sample (of 123 countries) as a whole and for important regional sub-samples. This finding is in line with the small or insignificant macroeconomic impact of aid found in earlier studies and also suggests that exporters in recipient countries are not benefiting from improved trade relations with donors.     

Private capital flows,stock market and economic growth in developed and developing countries: A comparative analysis

Empirically we investigate how three types of private capital flows could promote economic growth in recipient developed and developing countries. Our focus is on the role of stock markets as a channel through which foreign capital flows could promote growth. The findings reveal that FDI exhibits a positive impact on growth, while both foreign debt and portfolio investment have a negative impact on growth in all sample countries. However, our results indicate that stock markets might be a significant channel or leading institutional factor through which capital flows affect economic growth. The findings provide clear implications that the negative impact of private capital flows can be transformed into a positive one if the stock market development has attained a certain threshold level, regardless of whether it is in developed or developing countries.     

Chinese FDI to Africa: What Is the Nexus with Foreign Economic Cooperation?*

Abstract: China, once a major recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI), has recently become one of the main ‘emerging’ investors, especially in developing countries. Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI) plays a very prominent role in economic interaction with many African countries. This paper empirically investigates the determinants of Chinese OFDI versus 41 African countries over the period 1998–2007. The analysis is novel because it provides empirical support to the existing, so far purely anecdotic, evidence describing Chinese FDI to Africa as driven by natural resources endowments and market potential. The econometric analysis highlights strong interrelationships between Chinese FDI and economic cooperation, which make standard models of investments unfit when assessing the role of China in Africa. It also suggests some new lines of research, exploiting the strong links between these different sources of financing.     

Effects on China and ASEAN of the ASEAN-China FTA: The FDI perspective

The ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA) is a significant step in regional economic integration for both China and the ASEAN countries. While analysis of the effects of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) most commonly focuses on the trade effects, the closeness of the link between trade and investment implies that the effect of an FTA on foreign direct investment (FDI) is also potentially significant. FTAs may stimulate FDI through the effects of market expansion and vertical fragmentation, while they may also reduce FDI through a plant rationalization effect. The overall effect of an FTA on FDI flows is an empirical question. This paper examines the impact of ACFTA on FDI flows through an econometric model that captures the influence of East Asian production networks on FDI, which we expect to be an important explanatory factor. The model finds that ACFTA has a significant and positive effect on FDI flows. A brief survey of the theoretical literature on the welfare and other related effects of FDI serves to emphasize that the extent to which individual member countries of the ACFTA will benefit from this increase in FDI will depend in important ways on the policies pursued in each country.     

Does China have an impact on foreign direct investment to Latin America?

We analyze empirically whether the emergence of China as a large recipient of FDI has affected the amount of FDI received by Latin American countries. Allowing for the structural break related to China's WTO accession, we found a significant negative impact of Chinese inward FDI on that of Mexico until 2001 and on that of Colombia after that date. The rest of Latin American countries do not seem to be affected by Chinese inward FDI. For the region as a whole, there is no significant Chinese effect on Latin America’s FDI.     

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Intellectual Property Rights: Empirical Evidence from Different Income Groups

This study examines the impact of intellectual property rights (IPRs) on Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows by considering global data with three income groups classified by World Bank (i.e. high-, middle-, and low-income groups). The empirical model relates FDI inflows to IPRs, controlled by a set of known variables, namely GDP per capital, trade openness, real exchange rate, and real interest rate. The study covers panel data of between 35 and 100 countries for the period 1980–2014. The panel cointegration tests suggest that FDI inflow and IPRs with the other control variables are cointegrated for full countries and high-income group. Their estimated (long-run) coefficients are 0.04 and 0.18, respectively, but insignificant in the short-run. The impact (short-run) of TRIPS agreement is positive for full countries, but negative for low-income group. Non-causality tests further support the role of IPRs on FDI. Various transmission channels have been identified, in particularly for low-income countries. This study enlightens policymakers about the policy on creating a conducive and sustainable environment for IPRs in order to encourage FDI inflows to their countries.     

外国直接投资对山东半岛环境影响

文章采用熵值赋权法计算山东半岛2000-2008年度环境污染的评价指标值,采用联立方程计量经济学模型,就外国直接投资和环境污染之间的关系进行实证检验。研究结果表明,外国直接投资通过规模效应加剧山东半岛的环境污染,但其结构效应对环境产生正面影响,技术效应没有产生具有显著统计意义的影响。应该通过法律手段、行政手段与市场手段改善FDI对环境的消极影响。     

Free Trade Agreements and Foreign Direct Investment: The Role of Endogeneity and Dynamics

This article studies the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTA) on outbound foreign direct investment (FDI). From one perspective, FTA may promote FDI since FTA aim to promote economic activity between countries. However, lower trade barriers may lower the incentive of firms to conduct FDI. Therefore, the net impact is an empirical question. Using a panel of countries for the years 1990–2006, this article effectively controls for participation in an FTA when analyzing the impact on outbound FDI. The lengthy time series also allows us to examine effectively the dynamic nature of the relationship. Failing to account for endogeneity and dynamics would likely generate inaccurate conclusions regarding the impact of FTA on outbound FDI. Our analysis finds that outbound FDI is either unrelated to participation in an FTA or is negatively affected.     

Do Institutions Matter for Foreign Direct Investment?

Using a panel of 69 countries during 1981 and 2005, we investigate the role of institutions in determining foreign direct investment (FDI). We find that institutions are a robust predictor of FDI and that the most significant institutional aspects are linked to propriety rights. Using a novel data set, we also study the impact of institutions on FDI at the sectoral level. We find that institutions do not have a significant impact on FDI in the primary sector but that institutional quality matters for FDI in manufacturing, and particularly in services.     

Japan's FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model Averaging

In this paper we analyse the determinants of Japanese outward FDI stock for the period 1996–2017. This period is especially relevant as it covers a process of increasing economic globalization and two financial crises. To this aim, we consider a large set of candidate variables based on the theory as well as on previous empirical analysis. Our sample includes a total of 27 host countries. We select the covariates using a data-driven methodology, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) analysis. Moreover, we also analyse whether these determinants change depending on the degree of development (emerging vs developed) or the geographical areas (EU vs East Asia) of the countries considered. We find that Japan's FDI can be explained by a wide variety of variables, that include not only the typical gravitational ones but also institutional and macroeconomic variables, including those that measure financial development. Moreover, Japanese FDI can be explained by both horizontal and vertical FDI motives in the groups of countries analysed. However, in developed, and more precisely, EU countries, horizontal FDI strategies are predominant, whereas for East Asian and emerging countries, there is more evidence in favour of vertical FDI.     

外向型FDI能促进母国的对外贸易吗?——基于69个国家和地区样本的GMM检验

对外直接投资对母国经济的诸多方面有正面的影响。文章选取41个发展中国家和地区以及28个发达国家和地区2002-2011年的观测样本,实证考察外向型FDI对母国对外贸易的影响。实证结果发现,不管是在发达国家样本还是在发展中国家样本,在控制了外向型FDI的内生性之后,外向国际直接投资存量对母国的进出口贸易总额没有显著影响。