Assessment of non-recurrent traffic congestion caused by freeway work zones and its statistical analysis with unobserved heterogeneity

Freeway work zones with patching, paving, lane marking, debris removing, and weeding cause temporary capacity reduction in the freeway and may lead to non-recurrent traffic congestion. Such non-recurrent traffic congestion amounts to 10% of total traffic congestion in the U.S. and 31% in Germany. Non-recurrent traffic congestion has been estimated by using the capacity and the number of closed lanes in work zones and the upstream traffic demand of work zones. However, the number of the closed lanes may be insignificant due to operational strategies such as using the shoulder area and composing additional lanes by temporarily reducing the existing lane width to mitigate traffic congestion. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a method to quantify non-recurrent traffic congestion caused by freeway work zones based on traffic flow data and spatio-temporal work zone information. In addition, to demonstrate the efficacy of the developed method, a case study is conducted based on one-year historical traffic data and work zone data on major freeways in Korea. Then, multivariate statistical analysis with unobserved heterogeneity is performed to describe factors of non-recurrent traffic congestion caused by work zone activities. Due to the fact that a work zone project is usually implemented according to schedule, such negative impact as non-recurrent traffic congestion is inevitably produced. Thus, the results can be practical for the performance evaluation of congestion management programs for work zone by quantifying non-recurrent traffic congestion. Additionally, the results from the statistical analysis can be potentially useful in developing a forecasting model for providing travelers with traffic information such as an alternative route to escape non-recurrent traffic congestion by freeway work zones.     

Pay to drive in my bus lane: A stated choice analysis for the proposed Lincoln Tunnel HOT lane into Manhattan

This paper presents the findings from a stated choice (SC) analysis conducted in the context of proposed changes to the lane system in use for the Lincoln Tunnel crossing into Manhattan. Currently, the approach road (NJ 495) to the Lincoln Tunnel has six lanes, with three in each direction. During the weekday morning peak period, The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) operates a 2.5 miles exclusive bus lane (XBL) for traffic bound for Manhattan. The PANYNJ is considering creating, from existing lanes, a second XBL with the option for passenger vehicles to use it in return for an additional toll, in effect turning it into a high occupancy toll (HOT) lane. Such an approach to increase capacity and reduce congestion is unique nationally and this study looks at drivers' choices between using standard lanes, paying extra to drive on a HOT lane (the new XBL lane), switch to earlier or later departure times, or change their mode of travel. The analysis shows significant differences in the valuation of travel time savings between different population groups and also different departure time periods. The models also reveal a reluctance to change to other crossings, accept changes in departure time or switch to alternative modes.     

The toll plaza optimization problem: Design,operations, and strategies

This paper presents comprehensive decision-making procedures for designing a new toll plaza with the right initial capacity, then finding the optimal dynamic lane configuration for operations, evaluating the effects of increasing future traffic volume on waiting time by sensitivity analysis, and establishing a long-term quantitative strategy by transferring low-throughput lane users to high-throughput lanes. We develop a non-linear integer programming model integrated with the M/G/1 queueing process. A case study based on actual data demonstrates how effective the model and the strategy are in reducing operating and user-waiting costs and, thus, improving overall system performance at toll plazas.     

Exploring the effectiveness of bus rapid transit a prototype agent-based model of commuting behavior

The introduction of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), typically involving the use of exclusive bus lanes and related bus priority measures, is increasingly advocated as a flexible and cost-effective way of improving the attractiveness of public transit in congested urban areas by reducing travel times and variability. These schemes typically involve the reallocation of road space for exclusive use by buses, presenting commuters with potentially competing incentives: buses on BRT routes can run faster and more efficiently than buses running in general traffic, potentially attracting commuters to public transit and reducing congestion through modal shift from cars. However, a secondary impact may also exist; remaining car users may be presented with less congested road space, improving their journey times and simultaneously acting as an incentive for some bus-users to revert to the car. To investigate the potential for these primary and secondary impacts, we develop a prototype agent-based model to investigate the nature of these interactions and how they play out into system-wide patterns of modal share and travel times. The model allows us to test the effects of multiple assumptions about the behaviors of individual agents as they respond to different incentives introduced by BRT policy changes, such as the implementation of exclusive bus lanes, increased bus frequency, pre-boarding ticket machines and express stops, separately and together. We find that, under our assumptions, these policies can result in significant improvements in terms of individual journey times, modal shift, and length of rush hour. We see that the addition of an exclusive bus lane results in significant improvements for both car users and bus riders. Informed with appropriate empirical data relating to the behavior of individual agents, the geography and the specific policy interventions, the model has the potential to aid policymakers in examining the effectiveness of different BRT schemes, applied to broader environments.     

突发事件对我国铁路客运量的干预特征研究

基于新冠肺炎疫情等突发事件对人们日常生活出行的影响,结合X-13ARIMASEATS季节调整模型的自动识别最优ARIMA模型和检测突发事件离群值功能,使用脉冲函数和阶梯函数设计基于离群值的突发事件的干预变量,构建铁路客运量的时间序列ARIMAX干预模型,对铁路客运量近年受到的SARS疫情、铁路客票实名制政策和新冠肺炎疫情等突发事件的冲击趋势进行干预比较分析。结果显示,SARS和新冠肺炎疫情对铁路客运量冲击较大,SARS疫情在冲击滞后的第5~6期铁路客运量基本得到恢复,新冠肺炎疫情对铁路客运量冲击一直在持续中,铁路客运实名制政策实施社会性较强,冲击具有波动性和不稳定性特征,持续时间较短;相对季节调整模型的趋势分析优势,干预模型拟合预测精度显著高于季节调整模型,预测显示我国铁路客运量在缓慢持续回暖中。     

石太客运专线客流预测研究

利用改进的重力模型和灰色理论模型,从石太客运专线的本线客流、跨线客流和诱增客流3个方面,分别以客运通道周边城市的GDP和人口分布密度、石太客运通道既有线的旅客运输量、城市间的加权运行时间为影响因子,对石太客运专线的旅客运输量进行预测分析。预测结果为客运专线合理制定运输组织方案、设计车站规模提供了科学依据。     

Future airport terminals: New technologies promise capacity gains

The changing dynamics of passenger processes in future airport terminals resulting from pressures from both the demand and supply side are analyzed in this paper. Short and long term (beyond 2020) developments are studied following technology advances and business plans of airlines and airports. Key technologies affecting the central passenger processing functions include identity management and biometrics, Near Field Communications, Big Data analytics and smartphone applications. A simulation model is developed and used to assess the impact of forthcoming changes on the airport's departure hall. Lisbon Portela airport is used as case study. It is shown that passenger process times at the check-in and security checkpoints are significantly reduced, due to the introduction of passenger facilitation processes, under a range of behavioral, technological and policy uncertainties. The most salient implication of these reductions is the quantified capacity gains in the building which question the need for terminal expansion.     

Security culture in the screening checkpoint of Brazilian airports

In a previous study the incidence of errors and human factors in the security screening process at Brazilian airports was identified as a security challenge. This finding led to the analysis of teamwork activity in the screening checkpoints from a security culture perspective. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potentials errors and human factors that might influence the performance of the passengers screening checkpoints of Brazilian airports related to security culture. For this purpose, were analyzed 10 of 60 items of a self-observation questionnaire based on the theory of Generic Error–Modeling System (GEMS) and the framework about human factors recommended by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). The exploratory analysis focused on items that were directly linked with security culture and organizational environment. The results indicated the presence of fundamental elements for the formation of an adequate security culture among the professionals. Otherwise, the data also indicate the presence of human factors associated to the security culture with the potential of negatively influencing the performance of the passenger screening activity.     

Design and analysis of a two-stage security screening and inspection system

Security inspections are becoming a commonplace activity in locations ranging from airports to museums and shopping malls. Theses inspections can result in significant operational costs to a facility and to entry delays for the individuals being inspected. In this paper we focus specifically on passenger inspections at US airports. We consider a two-stage inspection system in which we are able to control the service rate of the first inspector. The relationship between the inspection service rate and accuracy is assumed described by a known speed and accuracy operating characteristic curve. Using a queuing model we derive the optimal design for the passenger security inspection operation at a given arrival rate, and also evaluate the utility of any investments in inspection rate improvement. The primary performance metric for the security inspection system is the average waiting time of the arriving entities or passengers. The optimal result specifies the number of inspectors at each stage, the service rate of the first inspector, and the total system cost. Numerical results with an example system are presented.     

城市轨道交通相邻多车站动态协同限流研究

为应对城市轨道交通车站高峰期客流压力,限流已经成为常态应对措施,而经常采用的限流策略大多针对单个车站,缺少对相邻多个车站的协同考虑。基于客流在车站间的传播效应,以乘客总延误时间最小为目标,以站台及列车能力为约束条件,构建城市轨道交通相邻多车站协同限流决策模型,同时为实现实时动态控制,引入滚动时域控制方法,优化多车站动态协同限流流程。以北京地铁8号线为例,经过相邻若干车站运营数据进行限流策略计算。结果表明,该模型限流可以在不造成车站服务人数损失的同时,将乘客总延误时间降低21%。     

Analyzing airport security checkpoint performance using cognitive agent models

Modern airports operate under high demands and pressures, and strive to satisfy many diverse, interrelated, sometimes conflicting performance goals. Airport performance areas, such as security, safety, and efficiency are usually studied separately from each other. However, operational decisions made by airport managers often impact several areas simultaneously. Current knowledge on how different performance areas are related to each other is limited. This paper contributes to filling this gap by identifying and quantifying relations and trade-offs between the detection performance of illegal items and the average queuing time at airport security checkpoints. These relations and trade-offs were analyzed by simulations with a cognitive agent model of airport security checkpoint operations. By simulation analysis a security checkpoint performance curve with three different regions was identified. Furthermore, the importance of focus on accuracy for a security operator is shown. The results of the simulation studies were related to empirical research at an existing regional airport.     

The effects of perceived crowding,emotional dissonance,and emotional exhaustion on critical job outcomes: A study of ground staff in the airline industry

Using Conservation of Resources (COR) theory and Stressor–Strain–Outcome (SSO) model as the theoretical underpinnings, this study proposes and tests a research model that examines emotional exhaustion as a mediator of the impact of emotional dissonance on service recovery performance, turnover intentions, and absenteeism. The model also investigates the mediating role of emotional dissonance in the relationship between perceived crowding and emotional exhaustion. Data obtained from ground staff in the low cost airline industry in Turkey were used to gauge these relationships. The results from structural equation modeling suggest that passenger crowding as perceived by ground staff results in emotional dissonance that in turn heightens emotional exhaustion. The results further suggest that emotional exhaustion fully mediates the effect of emotional dissonance on turnover intentions and absenteeism. Interestingly, the results suggest that the impact of emotional dissonance on service recovery performance, mediated by emotional exhaustion, is positive. Theoretical and management implications based on the aforesaid findings are discussed in the paper.     

Capacity-oriented passenger flow control under uncertain demand: Algorithm development and real-world case study

This paper proposes a problem of passenger flow organization in subway stations under uncertain demand. The existing concepts of station service capacity are extended and further classified into three in different demand scenarios. Mathematical models are put forward to measure the three capacities and a unified simulation-based algorithm is developed to solve them. To increase computing speed, data envelopment analysis (DEA) and genetic algorithms (GA) are embedded in this algorithm. A case study will demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm and give a detailed procedure of passenger flow control based on station service capacity in various demand scenarios.     

Does the nature of airport terminal service activities matter? Processing and non-processing service quality,passenger affective image and satisfaction

The surge in air transport demand and the increasingly competitive and volatile market dynamics due to airline deregulation are rapidly transforming airports’ character into multi-service firms and destinations. As a result, service performance measurement of significant systems and their consequent impact on airport users are crucial in creating better airport service design, operation and management for sustainable competitive advantage. The present study 1) assesses the applicability of the Airport Indicators of Passenger Experience (AIPEX) model on Shanghai Pudong International Airport (PVG), and 2) tests a theoretical model that explores the direct and indirect relationships among airport service quality, passenger affective image and satisfaction, as well as the moderating mechanism of passenger type (travel purpose) in these associations. The results indicate that, the AIPEX model fits the PVG context for airport service performance assessment. Also, the theoretical model suggests robust direct associations among processing/non-processing domains and passenger satisfaction, as well as the processing domain and passenger affective image, except non-processing domain and passenger affective image relation. Moreover, significant mediating and moderating effects of passenger affective image and travel purpose on the significant positive direct associations are found. Further, implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

麦加轻轨列车运行模式分析与优化研究

麦加轻轨是中铁建建设并运营的首条海外铁路,由于服务对象为朝觐客流,其列车运行模式较为独特。通过研究麦加轻轨的5种运行模式(A—E),分析其运营效果,提出麦加轻轨列车运行模式的优化方法。重点针对朝觐期间的运行模式E,以发车间隔、运营成本、车底数为约束,以乘客候车时间最短为目标构建了不同客流分布下的行车间隔优化模型,并针对不同集中度的客流分布计算得出最优方案。研究显示,相比既有的行车间隔保持不变的方案,采用优化后的差异化行车间隔方案可以在不增加运营成本的情况下缩减乘客平均候车时间,客流集中趋势越高,优化效果越好,客流高集中趋势下(标准差19.9%)最多可节省候车时间13.2%。研究结果对降低麦加轻轨运营成本、提高乘客服务水平具有现实意义。     

Airport operations and security screening: An examination of social justice

Airports are a crucial part of the United States transportation system and airport officials are continuously challenged to ensure that their operations are secure. A major part of providing airport security is implementing check points where passengers interface with the security screening system. The airlines and airport security administration receive negative publicity when passengers are mistreated at security check points. Further, these organizations spend a lot of time to assess the situation and take corrective actions. This study examines passenger perceived bias and the airport security screening system. Using data from a randomly selected sample of 145 airline passengers, six hypotheses are tested. The hypotheses exam the predictive relationships of control procedures, security personnel training, security personnel professionalism, and security screening systems on passenger perceived bias. Multiple regression analysis is used to test the hypotheses. The research findings indicate that security personnel professionalism is negatively and significantly related to passenger perceived bias. Also, security personnel training and security control procedures are positively and significantly related to security personnel professionalism. Management implications, limitations, and recommendations for future research are offered.     

基于微观仿真的铁路客运站旅客流线设计的评价

在论述铁路客运站流线的概念和分类的基础上,指出研发旅客流线设计评价技术的重要性。提出应用基于社会力模型的SimWalk软件建立客流的微观仿真模型,评价旅客流线设计方案的技术方法。实例分析验证了技术方法的可行和有效性,能够以多种方式直观、定量地分析和评估旅客流线设计方案的绩效。     

基于EEMD-BP方法的城市轨道交通进站客流短期预测

城市轨道交通站点客流量是评价其服务水平和实现城市轨道交通资源有效配置的基础数据和依据。针对城市轨道交通站点进站客流量序列波动复杂的问题,构建基于EEMD-BP方法的城市轨道交通进站客流短期预测模型,通过对城市轨道交通站点的日间分时进站客流序列进行模态分解,并对分解的分量进行筛选和识别,探究进站客流的日间波动影响因素,实现对短期客流的合理预测。以广州珠江新城站短期客流预测为例,验证该组合模型在提高客流预测方面具有有效性,为城市轨道交通线网规划和运营管理提供客流预测依据。     

Exploring time variants for short-term passenger flow

Passenger flow is a fundamental element in a transportation system. It is important to explore the time variants of short-term passenger flow for transportation planning and operation. When the data are sufficiently analyzed, transportation planners not only can make better decisions, but also enhance the performance of transportation systems. The data of short-term passenger flow may be difficult to analyze due to its exotic oscillation. Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) has recently been developed for analyzing non-linear and non-stationary data. In this paper, the proposed time variants exploration method includes two stages: empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and Hilbert spectral analysis (HSA). A real passenger flow dataset is collected from Taipei rapid transit corporation (TRTC) to investigate the viability of the proposed time variants exploration approach. The intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) extracted by EMD can represent the local characteristics of passenger flow and imply its meaningful time variants such as peak period pattern, semi-service period pattern, semi-daily pattern and daily pattern. By comparing the results of HHT with that of fast Fourier transform (FFT), it indicates that HHT can obtain the narrower frequency band, accurately capture time-frequency-energy distribution, and help to enhance the performance of transportation systems. The results show that HHT is an effective approach for exploring the time variants of short-term passenger flow in a metro system.     

基于时段偏好的高速铁路列车停站方案双层规划方法

旅客出行需求不断提高,需要同时考虑旅客出行时段选择与运输企业效益,来优化调整高速铁路列车停站方案。针对一条拥挤的高速铁路客运走廊,分时段确定列车停站计划和开行频率,阐述影响旅客出行时段偏好的2个重要因素——吸引度与可达度,据此构建旅客出行阻抗函数,构建双层规划模型,上层规划是以运营成本最小为目标的整数规划模型,用于确定列车停站方案;下层规划是一个用户平衡模型,用于计算客流在停站方案上的分配结果。根据模型特点设计启发式算法,并通过算例对模型和算法进行验证和分析。研究表明,考虑旅客出行时段偏好优化高速铁路列车停站方案的方法,能更好地匹配旅客需求分布,为旅客提供优质服务。