Beating the DAX,MDAX, and SDAX: investment strategies in Germany

Motivated by two recent papers of Asness et al. (J Portf Manag Fall 40(5):75–92, 2014; J Portf Manag Fall 42(1):34–52, 2015), we investigate whether momentum and value strategies outperformed a buy-and-hold strategy in the three biggest German equity indices, DAX, MDAX, and SDAX from 1988 to 2015. Our findings show that a momentum premium was present only in the SDAX and that value strategies did not work in any of the three indices. Consequently, we conclude that at least the DAX and MDAX are efficient indices and that some supposedly abnormal returns could be illusionary, as limits to arbitrage obstruct any profitable exploitation in practice. Finally, we find a negative correlation between momentum and value in the DAX and show that mixing both strategies can substantially decrease a portfolio’s risk.     

英国正式脱欧经济影响几何

<正>2020年1月31日,三年半,三任首相,三次推迟,英国最终迎来了正式脱欧的历史时刻,进入脱欧后的过渡期,英欧关系翻开新的一页。形式脱欧易,实质脱欧难。英国和欧盟还有经贸谈判的硬骨头要啃。谈判还未开始,英欧双方已纷纷要价,英国试图尽可能多地获取类似单一市场和关税同盟成员国的优惠,而尽量少地承担相应的经济社会义务。对于英国而言,英国、欧盟达成的经贸协定越全面、越紧密,英国被要求遵守的欧盟的规则越多、领域越宽,其与美国等经济体谈判的余     

The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty

We propose a text-based method for measuring the cross-border propagation of large shocks at the firm level. We apply this method to estimate the expected costs, benefits, and risks of Brexit and find widespread reverberations in listed firms in 81 countries. International (i.e., non-U.K.) firms most exposed to Brexit uncertainty (the second moment) lost significant market value and reduced hiring and investment. International firms also overwhelmingly expected negative first-moment impacts from the U.K.'s decision to leave the European Union (EU), particularly related to regulation, asset prices, and labor market impacts of Brexit.     

The Impact of Changes in the FTSE 100 Index

This paper investigates FTSE 100 index membership changes, which are determined quarterly by market capitalization and should have no information content. Return reversal around index additions and deletions suggests that buying (selling) pressure moves prices temporarily away from equilibrium, consistent with short‐term downward sloping demand curves. In contrast to widely reported results for the S&P 500, there is no evidence of permanent price effects. Further results suggest that investor awareness and monitoring due to index membership do not explain the price effects. There is statistically significant anticipatory trading in stocks that just fail to be promoted to the FTSE 100.     

Exchange-rate indexation in a monetary model: Theory and evidence

Using a familiar monetary model with nontraded goods, we derive the stability properties of the price level and reserve stock when the exchange rate is partially or completely indexed to the home price level divided by foreign prices. In the stable case, it is shown that indexing results in a system with properties of both fixed and flexible regimes. Our method is to impose conditions of short-run (but not long-run) equilibrium in a discrete period model. The model is tested with monthly data from Brazil.     

Ex Ante Hedging Effectiveness of UK Stock Index Futures Contracts: Evidence for the FTSE 100 and FTSE Mid 250 Contracts

Ex ante hedging effectiveness of the FTSE 100 and FTSE Mid 250 index futures contracts is examined for a range of portfolios, consisting of stock market indexes and professionally managed portfolios (investment trust companies). Previous studies which focused on ex post hedging performance using spot portfolios that mirror market indexes are shown to overstate the risk reduction potential of index futures. Although ex ante hedge ratios are found to be characterised by intertemporal instability, ex ante hedging performance of direct hedges and cross hedges approaches that of the ex post benchmark when hedge ratios are estimated using a sufficient window size.     

Measuring macroeconomic exposure: The case of Volvo Cars*

Volvo Cars' economic exposure to exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables is estimated using quarterly cash flows as the firm's target variable. We discuss first several issues relating to management's view of the macroeconomic environment, as well as the firm's objective and structure. These issues must be addressed before multiple regression analysis can be implemented with the purpose of estimating exposures. the use of cash flow exposure coefficients for evaluating exposure and choosing currency denomination of liabilities is illustrated, and an out-of-sample analysis of the estimated exposure coefficients is carried out.     

汇率目标制、货币目标制和通货膨胀目标制的比较及其在我国的应用的探讨

汇率目标制、货币目标制在各自的经济背景下都起到了稳定一国通货、稳定汇率从而稳定一国物价总水平、促进经济增长的作用。起始于20世纪80年代末期,通货膨胀目标制代替汇率目标制、货币目标制成为许多国家追逐长期价格稳定的一种货币政策新框架,在取得长期价格稳定和金融稳定上具有更多优点和灵活性。我国金融开放条件下货币政策调控面临国内货币需求不稳定,内部、外部经济不平衡,金融不平衡等问题,在货币目标制和汇率目标制难以实现货币政策有效调控的情况下,建议应对我国的货币政策调控方式做出调整,采用通货膨胀目标制的货币政策框架。     

Assessing the Effect of the Transition to IFRS on Equity: The Case of the FTSE 100

The paper presents the results of an analysis of the reconciliations of equity presented as part of the transition from UK Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (UK GAAP) to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) by the largest UK companies. While the overall effect on equity is not significant, the effect of the change in convention on individual line items could have important consequences for financial analysis and contractual obligations. The level of variability between companies means that this change will demand attention to detail by users of financial statements. The paper provides a benchmark for comparison with companies from other accounting traditions making the transition to IFRS.     

Litigation exposure,capital structure and shareholder value: the case of Brooke Group

We examine value creation and destruction in the tobacco industry due to the radical litigation strategy of Brooke Group CEO Bennett LeBow. Brooke Group had tiny market share, low margins, high leverage and highly concentrated management ownership. Beginning in 1996, the firm reached settlements in lawsuits brought against all cigarette companies by class action plaintiffs and US state governments. Brooke Group's actions, which included promises to cooperate in litigation against its rivals, spurred other companies to reach settlements on less favorable terms. These events led to massive wealth destruction within the industry but impressive returns for shareholders of Brooke Group.     

英国脱欧后美欧贸易投资关系及其变化

由于英国正式脱欧,美国与欧洲的贸易和投资关系快速变化。从贸易角度看,商品贸易中欧盟地位有所下降,成为美国第三大商品出口市场和第二大进口来源市场,美欧之间的贸易商品构成也发生了变化;服务贸易中由于英国所占份额最大,英国脱欧也将影响美欧之间的服务贸易额。从投资角度看,美欧仍是彼此最大的外国直接投资的来源地和目的地。     

Stock liquidity and investment opportunities: New evidence from FTSE 100 index deletions

This paper examines the relationship between stock liquidity and investment opportunities in a sample of firms experiencing a negative exogenous liquidity shock, captured by deletion from the FTSE 100 stock index. We find no statistical association between stock liquidity and investment opportunities. These findings are in sharp contrast to the positive relation between liquidity and investment opportunities reported in US equity markets. This unique result in the London Stock Exchange suggests that deletion from a major stock index does not influence corporate investment decisions because there is no significant change in the cost of capital.     

In Defence of Capitalisation Weights: Evidence from the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 Indices

A simple method for decomposing the variance covariance matrix of portfolio returns at the level of individual stocks is applied to the FTSE 100 Index. During extreme negative shocks, the largest index constituents exhibit lower than average covariance, thereby reducing the volatility of the capitalisation‐weighted index. The risk‐adjusted returns of the capitalisation‐weighted FTSE 100 Index exceed those of an equally‐weighted version of the same index and the outperformance is robust to the method of risk adjustment applied. The equally‐weighted index also exhibits greater systematic (market) risk than the capitalisation‐weighted version.     

Inefficiency and predictability in the Brexit Pound market: a natural experiment

Exploiting the near-experimental conditions provided by the GBPUSD exchange rate during the Brexit vote of 2016, we quantify a significant delay of the market price in reflecting the increasing probability of a Brexit outcome over the vote counting period. We claim that the Brexit outcome could realistically have been predicted hours before the market adjusted to the outcome. This inefficiency is identified by comparing the market-implied probability of a Brexit outcome with a separate probability, estimated by a standard Monte-Carlo algorithm based on a simple linear regression model, representative of what should have been easily possible in real time. The core of the method is the real-time re-calibration of ex-ante ‘pollster’ predictions for the voting district outcomes by regressing the observed voting results onto them. For comparative purposes, a study of the MXNUSD exchange rate in the 2016 US Presidential Election was done, finding that the market-implied and model-estimated probabilities moved more consistently toward the Trump outcome. Put together, this identifies a somewhat anomalous breakdown in market efficiency in the case of the Brexit vote, which we attribute to its novelty as well as a kind of political bubble and subsequent crash, generated by confirmation bias and social herding.     

Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates

This study examines return predictability of major foreign exchange rates by testing for martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) using daily and weekly nominal exchange rates from 1975 to 2009. We use three alternative tests for the MDH, which include the wild bootstrap automatic variance ratio test, generalized spectral test, and Dominguez–Lobato consistent tests. We evaluate time-varying return predictability by applying these tests with fixed-length moving sub-sample windows. While exchange rate returns are found to be unpredictable most of times, we do observe a number of episodes of statistically significant return predictability. They are mostly associated with the major events such as coordinated central bank interventions and financial crises. This finding suggests that return predictability of foreign exchange rates occurs from time to time depending on changing market conditions, consistent with the implications of the adaptive markets hypothesis.     

社会保障国际合作困境与英国的脱欧行动

随着经济全球化深度发展,劳动者的跨国流动及其社会保障国际合作受到广泛关注,在此背景下,由其他进入英国的欧盟国家移民引发的就业与福利问题成为英国脱欧行动的导火索之一。本文从社会保障国际合作的视角出发,运用英国政府部门的统计数据,探讨了其他欧盟国家劳动者在医疗保障和失业保障方面给英国劳动者所带来的冲击。鉴于英国的实践经验和教训,在"一带一路"的建设中,中国必须清晰地认识劳动力跨国就业所带来的潜在影响,更加周全地推进社会保障的国际合作。     

Britain and Brexit: A forecast of the future of employment protection during corporate insolvency

Brexit has produced a lot of uncertainties in the UK, not the least of which are the future of protections that have been derived from EU social policy Directives. Arguably, the UK's membership in the EU has pushed it further into a socially liberal and protective framework that it might not have adopted had it remained outside of the EU's sphere of influence. The question now is what direction the UK will take with regard to both the rescue culture and the social protections, both of which have been highly influenced by EU law and policy. The UK has ever been the “odd man out” in the EU, springing as it does from a significantly different legal origin than the Franco/German model at the heart of the EU. Examining the developmental path of other common law jurisdictions (America, Canada, and Australia) whose legal systems are derived from the British may be instructive in relation to the direction the UK might have taken had it not joined the EU, with a particular focus on the employment protections derived from the EU which are often applicable during insolvency and rescue procedures. An analysis of this counterfactual position may then also provide a clue or forecast as to the direction that the UK may take following Brexit.     

The impact of the UK's Modern Slavery Act (2015) on the disclosure of FTSE 100 companies

This paper explores the impact of the UK's Modern Slavery Act (2015) on the disclosure of the FTSE100 companies. It conducts a content analysis of modern slavery disclosures in the modern slavery statements, annual reports, and sustainability reports from 2013 to 2019. By utilising the framework by the Business & Human Rights Resource Centre, Practical Guidance by the Home Office and the Global Reporting Initiative, we assess the extent and quality of modern slavery disclosures. Our analysis reveals a high level of compliance to the Act's minimum disclosure requirements. We also note an increase in the extent and quality of disclosures following the introduction of the Act, although quality remains low throughout the period as symbolic disclosure is predominantly in evidence. Drawing on normativity theory we identify intrinsic and contextual conditions for norm development. We find that while the presence of intrinsic conditions has positively contributed to the extent and quality of some disclosure themes, the lack of controllability and communication with suppliers has undermined related disclosure provision and constitutes a major hurdle for improving accountability in supply chains.     

协调推进中国汇率改革和资本账户开放

正中国汇率改革轨迹2012年以来,贸易顺差收窄、美国经济复苏带动美元可能中长期走强、中美两国劳动生产率比例下降均表明,中美汇率可能接近均衡;另外,欧元持续弱势,人民币兑欧元存在升值动力。因此,扩大人民币兑不同国家的汇率弹性有利于完善人民币汇率形成机制,也是下一阶段推进汇率改革的现实选择。中国汇率改革的历史经验     

Securitization,risk-transferring and financial instability: The case of Spain

The 2007–2010 financial crisis has hit a variety of countries asymmetrically. The case of Spain is particularly illustrative as it exemplifies in a vivid manner most of the core issues largely responsible for the crisis. This country experienced a pronounced housing bubble partly funded via spectacular developments in its securitization markets leading to looser credit standards and subsequent financial stability problems. We analyze the sequential deterioration of credit in Spain considering rating changes in securitized deals. Using a sample of 20,286 observations on securities and rating changes from 2000Q1 to 2010Q1 we build a model in which loan growth, on balance-sheet credit quality and rating changes are estimated simultaneously. Our results suggest that loan growth significantly affects on balance-sheet loan performance with a lag of at least two years. Additionally, loan performance is found to explain rating changes with a lag of four quarters. Importantly, bank characteristics (in particular, observed solvency, cash-flow generation and cost efficiency) also affect ratings considerably. Additionally, these other bank characteristics seem to a higher weight in the rating changes of securities issued by savings banks as compared with commercial banks.