Maximizing the value for money of PPP arrangements through flexibility: An application to airports

The economic crisis in most developed countries is fostering the search for new models for infrastructure planning and management. There is great uncertainty surrounding these investments and, therefore, it is necessary to capture the latent value from infrastructure projects. The principle is that the project should have the necessary flexibility to adapt to future changes, i.e., at the design stage it is necessary to incorporate flexible options that would allow the infrastructure and/or the service to be adapted to changes.This paper focuses on contextualizing this concept as well as characterizing real options and identifying different areas of application to showcase the broad range of the different fields that make use of this tool. Moreover, the case study which regards a large infrastructure – an airport – will allow quantifying the economic value of some options supported in real options theory.     

An empirical analysis of airport capacity expansion

Theoretical analyses of the impact of airport capacity expansion must model or make assumptions about the effect of capacity on demand, airline competition, aircraft types, fares and other characteristics of a given airport. In this paper, we use empirical data on historical schedules, fares, delays and demand for the busiest 150 airports in 2015 to examine the typical impact of historical capacity expansions. We find significant diversity in outcomes, with over half the expanded airports either using less than their pre-expansion capacity or remaining constrained even at post-expansion capacity by 2016. Many of the expected impacts, such as reductions in typical aircraft size, either do not materialise or are dominated by other effects (for example, recessions; airlines beginning or ending operations at an airport; changes in regulation). Behaviour on expansion is affected by slot control regulations and whether the airport is initially capacity-constrained. In particular, slot-controlled airports typically add new destinations and carriers on expansion rather than making significant changes to existing schedules.     

Future airport terminals: New technologies promise capacity gains

The changing dynamics of passenger processes in future airport terminals resulting from pressures from both the demand and supply side are analyzed in this paper. Short and long term (beyond 2020) developments are studied following technology advances and business plans of airlines and airports. Key technologies affecting the central passenger processing functions include identity management and biometrics, Near Field Communications, Big Data analytics and smartphone applications. A simulation model is developed and used to assess the impact of forthcoming changes on the airport's departure hall. Lisbon Portela airport is used as case study. It is shown that passenger process times at the check-in and security checkpoints are significantly reduced, due to the introduction of passenger facilitation processes, under a range of behavioral, technological and policy uncertainties. The most salient implication of these reductions is the quantified capacity gains in the building which question the need for terminal expansion.     

A Monte-Carlo approach to estimating the effects of selected airport capacity options in London

The issue of future airport capacity in London is currently the subject of much political debate in the UK. Although realistic estimates of the effects of capacity enhancement may be desirable, such estimates are difficult. Through the use of Monte Carlo simulation, this paper quantifies and compares the relative capacity enhancements that may be afforded by the construction of a new hub airport in the Thames Estuary, additional runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and changes to operating practices at Heathrow. The simulations show that a new hub airport would be the most effective way to increase capacity, although the reported financial and environmental costs of such a development indicate a comparatively poor rate of return. Proposed new runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and the removal of runway alternation at Heathrow provide more modest increases in capacity.     

Investment into container shipping capacity: A real options approach in oligopolistic competition

We develop a container industry-specific real options investment model in oligopolistic competition taking into account endogenous price function, fuel-efficient investment, endogenous lead times, and endogenous price formation in the second-hand vessel market. We assess how optimal capacity is influenced by competitive intensity, number of players, volatility, fuel-efficiency, lead time, and cost. Moreover, we investigate optimal investment policies. We find that strategic action increases firm value and that it is worthwhile to consider alliances. Additionally, players in the market should consider retrofitting old vessels for fuel economy in economic downturns and using new, fuel-efficient vessels for capacity expansion in market upswings.     

Analysing and modelling some effects of solutions for matching the airport runway system capacity to demand

The paper deals with analysing and modelling some effects of three solutions for matching the airport runway system (landing) capacity to corresponding demand. These are: i) charging congestion applied to the NY LaGuardia airport (New York, USA); ii) deployment of the innovative operational procedures supported by the new technologies developing in the scope of European SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research) and U.S. NextGen (Next Generation) program applied to the system of two closely-spaced parallel runways at Dubai International airport (Dubai, UAE (United Arab Emirates)); and iii) building the new additional runway(s) applied to the runway system of three London airports - Heathrow, Gatwick, and Stansted (London, UK).The results have shown that each of the considered solutions can contribute to more efficient and effective matching of the airport runway (landing) capacity to the current and expected (prospectively growing) airside demand under given (specified) conditions.     

Optimal assignment of airport baggage unloading zones to outgoing flights

The outbound airport baggage handling system (BHS) consists of a set of unloading zones (chutes) which are assigned to outgoing flights. Airport baggage operations have inherent uncertainties such as flight delays and varying number of bags. In this paper, the chute assignment problem is modeled as a Stochastic Vector Assignment Problem (SVAP) and multiple extensions are presented to incorporate the various design needs of the airport. A real airport outbound BHS is presented. This case study also guided the optimization models’ design process. The performance of the optimization models is compared with the methods used in practice and literature.     

Design of a bi-objective reliable healthcare network with finite capacity queue under service covering uncertainty

This paper designs a reliable healthcare network. Under limited capacity, queue of patients may deteriorate the condition and leads to risk of death. Consequently, it is vital to investigate a queue system that considers the condition and changes over the time. Besides, treatment units just serve patients that are in their coverage threshold, while this threshold is affected by several factors. This paper considers number of patients and covering threshold under uncertainty. To handle uncertainty, an integrated approach is proposed. Two meta-heuristic algorithms are developed for the given problem. Finally, we carried out experiments to assess proposed model and approaches.     

Real option analysis of aircraft acquisition: A case study

This paper demonstrates that aircraft acquisition by airlines may contain a portfolio of real options (flexible strategies) embedded in the investment's life cycle, and that if airlines rely solely on the static NPV method, they are likely to underestimate the true investment value. Two real options are investigated: i) the “shutdown-restart” option (a carrier may shutdown a plane if revenues are less than costs, but restarts it if revenues are more than costs), and ii) the option to defer aircraft delivery. We quantify the values of these options in a case study of a major U.S. airline. The economic insight could help explain observed capital expenditures of airlines, and serve as a rule of thumb in evaluating capital budgeting decisions. A compound option (consisting of both the shutdown-restart and defer options) is also analyzed.     

An estimation of returns to scale of airport airsides under multiple optimal solutions in DEA

The returns to scale (RTS) nature of 37 Chinese airport airsides are investigated in this paper. Multiple optimal solutions in DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) models may lead to error RTS estimation. To address this problem, we use the (Zhu and Shen, 1995) RTS method. The empirical study shows that all those airsides with two runways operate under decreasing RTS and those airsides with only one runway either operate in the area of increasing RTS or in the area of constant RTS.     

A fuzzy assessment method to airport waste management: A case study of Congonhas Airport,Brazil

This study presents a fuzzy mathematical model to support and evaluate airport waste management. The model generates a waste management index, composed of three dimensions, and it was applied in a case study of Congonhas Airport, located in Brazil. In addition to the mathematical model, the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to verify the existence of bias in the obtained results. The results showed that there is a concern on the part of the airport regarding waste management, reflected in the Fuzzy Waste Management Index (FWMI) results. They also indicated that there was an improvement in waste management in 2015 compared to 2014, resulting from increased accounting for recyclables and awareness of the airport community. The developed model proved to be an important tool to support the decision making of airport managers, including aspects related to waste management steps, and there may be adjustments that may be made to include new indicators.     

2-Stage stochastic programming approach for hub location problem under uncertainty: A case study of air network of Iran

In this paper 2-stage stochastic programming has been developed for formulating stochastic uncapacitated multiple allocation hub location problem. This problem is studied under three cases. The first, stochastic demand, the second, stochastic transportation cost and the third, integrated stochastic, which is compounded of first and second cases. A case of air network in Iran is used to evaluate proposed formulations and computational results obtained by GAMS are presented. The results show that considering uncertainty into formulation could cause in different solutions.     

The geography of the Spanish airport system: spatial concentration and deconcentration patterns in seat capacity distribution, 2001-2008

This paper analyzes the geography of seat capacity at Spanish airports between 2001 and 2008. Concentration and deconcentration patterns for different markets have been identified. For this purpose, we use the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), the Concentration Ratio (CR) and the Lorenz curve. From our analysis, we conclude that seat capacity follows a deconcentration pattern due to the growth of low-cost carriers at small- and medium-sized Spanish airports. This is in line with earlier studies for Europe as a whole. Intercontinental seat capacity still remains very much concentrated in Madrid and, to a lesser extent, in Barcelona. However, new strategies by long-haul airlines bypassing the primary European hubs foster the deconcentration of seat capacity in the Asian and North American markets. In the case of Spain, the recent liberalization of the EU-US market may become an important enabler of such network strategies, e.g., Delta has operated a route from Valencia to New York-JFK since 2009. In other intercontinental markets, capacity is more and more concentrated in Madrid. We highlight the restructuring of Iberia’s network as an important factor behind the increasing dominance of Madrid in intercontinental markets.     

Monte Carlo comes to Rome: a note on the estimation of unconstrained runway capacity at Rome Fiumucino International Airport

A new airport capacity concept has been advanced by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Unconstrained capacity represents the airport capacity with reservoirs of traffic always available and the use of all planned technological and air traffic managerial improvements. To establish its utility and estimate its value for the first time, the case of Rome Fiumucino International Airport is examined.