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1.
The economic crisis in most developed countries is fostering the search for new models for infrastructure planning and management. There is great uncertainty surrounding these investments and, therefore, it is necessary to capture the latent value from infrastructure projects. The principle is that the project should have the necessary flexibility to adapt to future changes, i.e., at the design stage it is necessary to incorporate flexible options that would allow the infrastructure and/or the service to be adapted to changes.This paper focuses on contextualizing this concept as well as characterizing real options and identifying different areas of application to showcase the broad range of the different fields that make use of this tool. Moreover, the case study which regards a large infrastructure – an airport – will allow quantifying the economic value of some options supported in real options theory. 相似文献
2.
We develop a container industry-specific real options investment model in oligopolistic competition taking into account endogenous price function, fuel-efficient investment, endogenous lead times, and endogenous price formation in the second-hand vessel market. We assess how optimal capacity is influenced by competitive intensity, number of players, volatility, fuel-efficiency, lead time, and cost. Moreover, we investigate optimal investment policies. We find that strategic action increases firm value and that it is worthwhile to consider alliances. Additionally, players in the market should consider retrofitting old vessels for fuel economy in economic downturns and using new, fuel-efficient vessels for capacity expansion in market upswings. 相似文献
3.
This paper demonstrates that aircraft acquisition by airlines may contain a portfolio of real options (flexible strategies) embedded in the investment's life cycle, and that if airlines rely solely on the static NPV method, they are likely to underestimate the true investment value. Two real options are investigated: i) the “shutdown-restart” option (a carrier may shutdown a plane if revenues are less than costs, but restarts it if revenues are more than costs), and ii) the option to defer aircraft delivery. We quantify the values of these options in a case study of a major U.S. airline. The economic insight could help explain observed capital expenditures of airlines, and serve as a rule of thumb in evaluating capital budgeting decisions. A compound option (consisting of both the shutdown-restart and defer options) is also analyzed. 相似文献
4.
If the overall demand for air transport grows, but additional airport capacity is not available at congested airports, we could assume that airlines will offer flights with more seats in order to cope with the demand. An analysis of frequency and average seat capacity developments at congested, and not yet congested airports, has shown that the hypothesis of bigger aircraft being used in congested situations is valid in most instances, although not at all airports. The objective of this paper is to report on an analysis of the development of average seat capacity at congested airports, in contrast to the situation at not yet congested airports, and to find out the reasons for airlines increasing the number of seats at congested airports, by means of a statistical model using variables including the degree of airport congestion and average flight distance. 相似文献
5.
Airport management is regularly challenged by the task of assigning flights to existing parking positions in the most efficient way while complying with existing policies, restrictions and capacity limitations. However, such process is frequently disrupted by various events, affecting punctuality of airline operations. This paper describes an innovative approach for obtaining an efficient stand assignment considering the stochastic nature of airport environment. Furthermore, the presented methodology combines benefits of Bayesian modelling and metaheuristics for generating solutions that are more robust to airport flight schedule perturbations. In addition, this paper illustrates that the application of the presented methodology combined with simulation provides a valuable tool for assessing the robustness of the developed stand assignment to flight delays. 相似文献
6.
Airports are on the front line of significant innovations, allowing the movement of more people and goods faster, cheaper, and with greater convenience. As air travel continues to grow, airports will face challenges in responding to increasing passenger vehicle traffic, which leads to lower operational efficiency, poor air quality, and security concerns. This paper evaluates methods for traffic demand forecasting combined with traffic microsimulation, which will allow airport operations staff to accurately predict traffic and congestion. Using two years of detailed data describing individual vehicle arrivals and departures, aircraft movements, and weather at Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport, we evaluate multiple prediction methods including the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) family of models, traditional machine learning models, and DeepAR, a modern recurrent neural network (RNN). We find that these algorithms are able to capture the diurnal trends in the surface traffic, and all do very well when predicting the next 30 minutes of demand. Longer forecast horizons are moderately effective, demonstrating the challenge of this problem and highlighting promising techniques as well as potential areas for improvement.Traffic demand is not the only factor that contributes to terminal congestion, because temporary changes to the road network, such as a lane closure, can make benign traffic demand highly congested. Combining a demand forecast with a traffic microsimulation framework provides a complete picture of traffic and its consequences. The result is an operational intelligence platform for exploring policy changes, as well as infrastructure expansion and disruption scenarios. To demonstrate the value of this approach, we present results from a case study at DFW Airport assessing the impact of a policy change for vehicle routing in high demand scenarios. This framework can assist airports like DFW as they tackle daily operational challenges, as well as explore the integration of emerging technology and expansion of their services into long term plans. 相似文献
7.
Theoretical analyses of the impact of airport capacity expansion must model or make assumptions about the effect of capacity on demand, airline competition, aircraft types, fares and other characteristics of a given airport. In this paper, we use empirical data on historical schedules, fares, delays and demand for the busiest 150 airports in 2015 to examine the typical impact of historical capacity expansions. We find significant diversity in outcomes, with over half the expanded airports either using less than their pre-expansion capacity or remaining constrained even at post-expansion capacity by 2016. Many of the expected impacts, such as reductions in typical aircraft size, either do not materialise or are dominated by other effects (for example, recessions; airlines beginning or ending operations at an airport; changes in regulation). Behaviour on expansion is affected by slot control regulations and whether the airport is initially capacity-constrained. In particular, slot-controlled airports typically add new destinations and carriers on expansion rather than making significant changes to existing schedules. 相似文献
8.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the key factors of airport logistics surge capacity and the relationships between these elements. The findings show that successful airport surge capacity management is closely related to prioritizing the flights and operational activities; considering the influx of local people to airports and local infrastructure capacity in the planning phase; developing suitable methods to encourage people to take part in surge operations; providing uninterrupted communication in and out of airport. In view of the above-stated findings this study suggests that airports can meet the surge demand through systematic capacity planning of the existing and additional human, supply, system and space elements by considering experienced or anticipated capacity shortages in disaster conditions. 相似文献
9.
Over the past two decades, the aviation sector has seen dramatic growth in demand with limited support in terms of supply, due to under-development of the larger airport infrastructure. This has led to congestion and delays at major airports across the world. The topic of ‘airport capacity management’ (ACM) has thereby attracted considerable scholarly attention. From our review of extant literature, we find an extensive repository of research work related to ACM, vis a vis its inherent role and the expected output. Nevertheless, extant literature has failed to conduct a systematic literature review on ACM in order to understand its evolution over time. Therefore, we analyze ACM literature in detail to grasp and evaluate the work being done thus far, using bibliometric analysis. Our analysis reveals that airport capacity, congestion, competition and ground holding problems are important keywords related to ACM. Further, using co-citation analysis we identify 5 broad clusters and thought pattern of researchers. We also propose a flowchart of literature with major research area related to ACM. Finally, we note that the Journal of Air Transport Management (JATM) with 1086 citations and 109 documents tops the list of journals publishing papers on ACM. 相似文献
10.
In this article we assess the growth impact of London Heathrow’s development constraints on other airports in the UK. To test the relationship we use a two-stage methodology yielding an estimate of a congestion spillover effect. Our data are passenger traffic from 1990 to 2012 containing both intercontinental and European air traffic. For intercontinental air traffic, our results show high congestion spillover effect between Heathrow and Gatwick airports, and significant but lesser effect to Stansted airport. We also find significant congestion spillover effects from Heathrow to the spatially more distant Manchester and Birmingham airports, showing the extensive spatial impact of Heathrow’s development constraints. For European air traffic, controlling for low-cost air carrier growth, only two airports show significant congestion spillover effects: Gatwick and London City Airports. Illustrating that low-cost carriers do not operate from Heathrow, so its limitations cannot affect the predominant low-cost air traffic in other airports. The novel methodology we present in this paper can be applied to congestion research in general to assess regional and modal spills within networks. 相似文献
11.
This study examines the value and the best time period to expand the investment of an airport infrastructure project by operating a flight school, skydiving center and guesthouse on the airport using compound real options and net present value methods. The results demonstrate that real option value of the project is more optimistic than traditional valuation method and the best time for expansion investment is eighth year of the operation. Moreover, sensitivity analyses showed that, the strongest variables effecting the project are volatility and discount rate. The findings show how real option methods and sensitivity analysis can contribute to future decisions of the managers. 相似文献
12.
Airport capacity continues to be one of the air transport issues that creates the most concern. The major environmental constraint for airports is the noise generated by aircraft. Annoyed communities living around airports have become a limiting factor for airport capacity and operability. This paper brings together the existing literature in the fields of airport environmental capacity, non-acoustic factors of noise annoyance, NIMBYism and environmental conflicts. We also analyze the socio-environmental conflict between Barcelona airport and the community of Gavà Mar. This case shows that the lack of trust between parties, the impossibility of predicting noise exposure, the absence of opportunities for civil society to speak and the difficulty of accessing relevant information foster annoyance and mobilization in the communities that live around the airport. In addition, it is shown that, in such a situation, communities’ reactions can evolve to a post-NIMBY stage in which proactive attitudes replace reactive ones. 相似文献
13.
Tobias Behnen 《Journal of Transport Geography》2004,12(4):277
Despite fluctuations for economic or political reasons, the number of passengers and volume of cargo carried by air is growing quickly, leading to a shortage of airport capacity in some European regions with few slots available at some hubs. This problem has accelerated the trend towards an increase in airport capacity for larger aircraft everywhere, a process which started in the UK and is now continuing throughout Europe, especially in Germany. Apart from development at the hubs, however, many small airports have also been enlarged, former military airbases have been converted to civilian use, and new runways are to be built in areas away from centres of population. These changes have occurred within a short period of time. In Germany, the number of available airports with runways over 1800 m will have doubled in a period of 10–15 years. 相似文献
14.
This paper explores the state of practice regarding aircraft financial evaluation. Traditional measures of aircraft economic viability, including direct operating cost comparison, ignore both the non-cash elements of costs, and the time value of money. Practitioners adopting more advanced techniques often go straight to the net present value calculation using an industry standard discount rate, ignoring critical problems such as estimating the cost of capital, quantifying the highly uncertain economic environment airlines face, and valuing the flexibility offered by manufacturer options and operating leasing. We propose taking advantage of the potential flexibility of the net present value approach by close attention to the choice of discount rates to flesh out investment/financing interactions, use of Monte Carlo analysis to quantify risk up front, and real options analysis to better understand the value of flexibility to aircraft operators. 相似文献
15.
The changing dynamics of passenger processes in future airport terminals resulting from pressures from both the demand and supply side are analyzed in this paper. Short and long term (beyond 2020) developments are studied following technology advances and business plans of airlines and airports. Key technologies affecting the central passenger processing functions include identity management and biometrics, Near Field Communications, Big Data analytics and smartphone applications. A simulation model is developed and used to assess the impact of forthcoming changes on the airport's departure hall. Lisbon Portela airport is used as case study. It is shown that passenger process times at the check-in and security checkpoints are significantly reduced, due to the introduction of passenger facilitation processes, under a range of behavioral, technological and policy uncertainties. The most salient implication of these reductions is the quantified capacity gains in the building which question the need for terminal expansion. 相似文献
16.
This paper considers the competition between two ports involving both hinterland shipments and transhipments. Taking a transport chain perspective including deep-sea, port, feeder and inland transportation, we present a static cost model to examine ports’ relative competitiveness and justify the development of game models. A non-cooperative game model is then formulated for a two-ports-one-ocean carrier system. The optimal ports’ pricing and the carrier’s port-of-call decisions are derived. A centralized supply chain model is then discussed. The game model is further extended to uncertain demand situations. A case study of Southampton and Liverpool ports is provided to illustrate the results. 相似文献
17.
The issue of future airport capacity in London is currently the subject of much political debate in the UK. Although realistic estimates of the effects of capacity enhancement may be desirable, such estimates are difficult. Through the use of Monte Carlo simulation, this paper quantifies and compares the relative capacity enhancements that may be afforded by the construction of a new hub airport in the Thames Estuary, additional runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and changes to operating practices at Heathrow. The simulations show that a new hub airport would be the most effective way to increase capacity, although the reported financial and environmental costs of such a development indicate a comparatively poor rate of return. Proposed new runways at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and the removal of runway alternation at Heathrow provide more modest increases in capacity. 相似文献
18.
Our research purpose is to estimate the impact of large volcanic eruptions on air transport and discuss how to reduce their negative impact through emergency operations. In particular, we focus on East Asia, where ash from the eruptions impedes air transport. First, we use Collaborative Actions for Renovation of Air Traffic System (CARATS) Open Data that are provided by the Civil Aviation Bureau (CAB) of Japan and estimate how many flights will be affected by volcanic ash. Furthermore, we discuss the dispersal of the volcanic ash that was discharged by the large-scale eruptions of Mount Sakurajima. This crossed over the main part of Japan from west to east. Through a simulation, we found that a volcanic eruption that lasts 14 h would cause a substantial number of the airports, including the major gateway airports, in Japan to be shut down simultaneously. It would also cause half of the airports’ scheduled flights to be cancelled or diverted. Subsequently, based on the impact estimation, we discuss the possibility of provisionally parking aircraft outside the damaged areas. Our results suggest that the airports located in the northern Tohoku area and the New Chitose airport are the best to accept evacuation flights to avoid risks in aviation following a volcanic eruption. 相似文献
19.
This paper proposes to use confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to evaluate the relationship between six observed variables (arrival and departure counts, arrival and departure demand, taxi-out and airborne delays) and their underlying latent (unobserved) constructs (operations, demand, and delays) at six of the most delayed airports (EWR, JFK, LGA, MIA, ORD, and SFO) during the calendar years of 2006–2008. The CFA revealed a good fit between the six observed variables and the three factors that may explain on-time performance except in the case of JFK. The use of CFA can help analysts validate constructs when theory supports a priori predictions and relationships between observed and unobserved variables. 相似文献
20.
Modern airports operate under high demands and pressures, and strive to satisfy many diverse, interrelated, sometimes conflicting performance goals. Airport performance areas, such as security, safety, and efficiency are usually studied separately from each other. However, operational decisions made by airport managers often impact several areas simultaneously. Current knowledge on how different performance areas are related to each other is limited. This paper contributes to filling this gap by identifying and quantifying relations and trade-offs between the detection performance of illegal items and the average queuing time at airport security checkpoints. These relations and trade-offs were analyzed by simulations with a cognitive agent model of airport security checkpoint operations. By simulation analysis a security checkpoint performance curve with three different regions was identified. Furthermore, the importance of focus on accuracy for a security operator is shown. The results of the simulation studies were related to empirical research at an existing regional airport. 相似文献