No lending relationships and liquidity management of small businesses during a financial shock

We investigate the determinants of the end of lending relationships with banks using small business data. We also investigate how small businesses without lending relationships financed credit demand during the global financial shock. First, we find that firms with lower growth, low working capital, and high internal cash were more likely to end lending relationships with banks. Supply-side effects on the determinants of the end of relationships are insignificant. Second, when firms experienced credit demand during the financial shock, those with lending relationships increased bank borrowings while those without lending relationships reduced internal cash. Third, firm performance (in terms of profitability) was neither lower nor higher for firms that did not have lending relationships with banks during the shock period.     

Comparison of Bank Profitability in China and the USA

This paper examines and compares the profitability of banks in the USA and China. The USA has the largest market‐based banking system and the financial system of China is still bank‐based. Our analysis indicates that in terms of profitability, banks in China outperformed those in the USA during our study period (2008–2014). Real estate loans had an adverse effect on US bank profitability during the financial crisis and no effect after the crisis but consistently improved the profitability of Chinese banks. Interest margins have no effect on US bank profitability but a consistently positive effect on Chinese banks, confirming that China is a traditional bank‐based economy. Interbank loans have a positive and significant effect on Chinese bank profitability, while interbank domestic loans have a negative effect on US bank profitability. Finally, size had a positive effect on US banks after the financial crisis period, confirming the scale economies of large US banks, but a negative effect on Chinese banks, indicating diseconomies of scale.     

信贷紧缩和流动性供给的悖论——全球金融危机之后中国银行业的考察(下)

我国在金融危机之后出现过信贷膨胀,经济过热之后又出现信贷紧缩。信贷紧缩会导致信贷增长下降,社会再生产的资金需求得不到满足。信贷紧缩有管理性成因,也有制度性成因。同时,为了确保经济增长的一定增速,我国的货币政策又要保持一定的流动性。这样,我国就出现了信贷紧缩和流动性供给之间的矛盾。本文讨论了全球金融危机之后,我国出现信贷紧缩的宏观经济运行背景,以及在此背景下货币政策失灵的内在逻辑。     

The lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia

This study evaluates the bank lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia by using quarterly bank-level data over the period of 2005-2016. I find that the lending channel of monetary policy works for all banks, both large and small. The results suggest that higher capital buffers and better liquidity positions moderate the impact of changes in monetary policy on credit growth for large banks, while capital buffers and liquidity positions do not alter the strength of the lending channel for small banks. The findings indicate that the central bank can use prudential instruments affecting capital buffers and liquidity positions for managing the strength of adjustment in the monetary policy interest rate on bank credit growth.     

Spillovers of banking regulation: the effect of the German bank levy on the lending rates of regional banks and their local competitors

During the financial crisis numerous European governments decided to rescue domestic banks with public funds to prevent a collapse of the banking system. To internalize the public costs, bank levies have been introduced in many countries. This paper analyzes the German bank levy which was implemented from 2011 till 2014. We examine not only if banks shift the cost of the levy to their customers’ lending rates, but also whether there are spillovers to their local competitors. The German savings and cooperative banks are a perfect setting to study such effects as they only operate within well-defined regions, allowing us to identify their local competitors. Additionally, only some of them are subject to the levy due to a tax allowance. Firstly, we find that a bank that has to pay the bank levy raises its lending rate by about 0.14 percentage points. Secondly, we examine whether the increased lending rates of paying banks spill over to their local competitors. We find this indirect effect to be about one third of the size. Lastly, adverse effects of the levy on paying banks’ loan supply growth are absorbed by their competitors to a certain extent.     

International banking and transmission of the 1931 financial crisis

In May to July 1931, a series of financial panics shook central Europe before spreading to the rest of the world. This article explores the role of cross‐border banking linkages in propagating the central European crisis to Britain and the US. Using archival bank‐level data, the article documents US and British banks’ exposure to central European frozen credits in 1931. Central European lending was mostly done by large and diversified commercial banks in the US and by small and geographically specialized merchant banks/acceptance houses in Britain. Differences in the organization of international bank lending explain why the central European crisis disturbed few US banks but endangered many British financial institutions.     

Notes And Communications

This communication sketches in headlines long term developments in American and European banking. Contrary to the expectation of both practitioners and theorists in the nineties, has the role of banks in the economy not diminished but increased. This is demonstrated by the long term increase of bank credit as a percentage of GDP (resulting in a stronger growth of M2 and 3 than GDP), a growing contribution of bank sector income to GDP, growing employment (until recently) and a growing share of bank shares in total market capitalisation over the past three decades until 2004–2006. This growing share may have been induced by a comparatively superior performance, supported by a relatively high dividend yield, despite a lower-than-average price-earning ratio. Banks counteracted increased competition and disintermediation tendencies in their traditional lending business by a progressive involvement in capital markets. They developed themselves, in several functions, these markets. For this reason the often used distinction between bank-based and market-based financial systems is less meaningful. Capital markets function thanks to banks. Even more because a rapidly growing volume of new, unlisted investment instruments are constructed by banks and traded over their counter. By this development the risk absorbing and intermediating function of banks – being their basic function in the financial system – is also accentuated. The professional capability of leading banks to fulfil this basic function has in the current “sub prime” crisis come under severe criticism.     

Lack of successors,firm default,and the performance of small businesses

We investigate the effects of the lack of successors on small businesses with an elderly manager. Using firm-level data from Japan, a country with an aging population, we find the following results. First, smaller, younger, highly leveraged, and nongrowing firms are likely to have no successor. Second, firms with an elderly manager are more likely to exit and default if they have no successors, and this is particularly the case during the global financial crisis around 2009. This result suggests that these firms have less incentive to repay debts because they are not going concerns. As a result of the high probability of default, the annual change in bank borrowing is low if firms with an elderly manager have no successor. Third, the annual change of bank borrowing is lower for firms with no successor during the crisis and post-crisis periods, implying that banks reduce lending to these firms because of their high risk.     

Trade credit and financial crises in Kazakhstan

This paper studies the trade credit and delinquency behavior in Kazakhstan paying attention to the effects of two recent crises using a unique dataset of large firms and SMEs from the year 2009 to 2016. Our estimates suggest that the relationship between trade and bank credit is mainly substitutional except that it was complementary for large firms following the year 2014–5 crisis. This new piece of evidence on the non-uniform relationship between trade and bank credit during crisis might provide more insight into the mixed findings in the literature. We also discern that trade credit demand is more prevalent among capital-intensive firms. Kazakhstani firms pass along a sizeable portion of their delinquent receivable to their trade credit suppliers. The transmission of trade credit delinquency, additionally, is amplified during the year 2014–5 economic crisis but the year 2009 global financial crisis.     

对金融危机下农业政策性银行支持涉农企业发展的思考

全球金融危机的扩散和蔓延,正在对中国实体经济带来冲击与影响,而涉及粮棉油生产、收购、加工及其他农产品加工企业也未能独善其身,由于涉农企业受到较大的冲击,进而影响到农业生产的稳定和农民的增收。在这场金融危机面前,农业政策性银行如何充分履行职能,支持涉农企业摆脱困境,促进农业和农村经济的良性循环。本文通过抽象调查与思考,较深刻地分析了金融危机对涉农企业及信贷支农的影响,提示了涉农企业在这场金融危机中应把握的发展机遇,提示了农业政策性银行在这场金融危机中应承担的支农、护农责任及采取的对策建议。     

Loan interest rate pass-through and changes after the financial crisis: Japan’s evidence

We estimate interest rate pass-through in the loan market using an individual bank-based panel dataset from Japan. Previous studies using data from European countries have presented a number of common findings, including that banks with a high proportion of relationship lending tend to set lower pass-through. In this respect, we have obtained similar results using a dataset for Japan going back to the early 2000s. We further examine the influence of borrowing firms’ balance sheet characteristics on loan interest rate pass-through, and find that these additional factors are also important determinants for pass-through dispersion. However, after the recent global financial crisis, even banks with a high proportion of relationship lending have largely lowered loan interest rates by raising pass-through, and pass-through has not necessarily been determined in accordance with borrowing firms’ balance sheet characteristics. These results differ from those of recent studies on European countries. Possible background factors explaining this change are that (i) pressure to lower loan interest rates has risen due to extensive monetary easing and greater lending competition among banks, while Japan’s banking system as a whole has maintained its resilience in the post-crisis period; (ii) demand for bank loans has increased substantially due to disruptions in the market for alternative funding sources, such as commercial paper and corporate bonds; and (iii) public measures to increase bank loans have been broadly introduced in Japan.     

Crisis in the Russian mortgage market through the lens of financial accelerator theory

This paper analyzes the influence of the economic crisis on the Russian mortgage market from the position of the financial accelerator theory. It shows that the level of financial stability of banks and borrowers on the eve of the crisis was determining the dynamics of their development and solvency during the crisis. The “flight to quality” effect, which is inextricably connected to the financial accelerator mechanism, showed that the largest domestic banks and credit organizations that were controlled by nonresident companies and mainly specialized in mortgages were in the most advantageous position in the mortgage market. In regions, this effect manifested itself through a reduction in mortgage lending for borrowers registered in other regions and an increase in the number of credit provided by Moscow banks.     

External balance sheets as countercyclical crisis buffers

The external balance sheets of many emerging market countries are distinguished by their holdings of assets primarily in the form of foreign debt and foreign exchange reserves, while their liabilities are predominantly equity, either foreign direct investment or portfolio equity. We investigate the claim that this composition served as a buffer for the emerging markets during the global financial crisis of 2008–09. We use data from a sample of 67 emerging market and advanced economies, and several indicators of the crisis are utilized: GDP growth rates in 2008–09, the occurrence of bank crises and the use of IMF credit. Our results show that those countries that issued FDI liabilities had higher growth rates, fewer bank crises and were less likely to borrow from the IMF. Countries with debt liabilities, on the other hand, had more bank crises and were more likely to use IMF credit. We conclude that the “long debt, short equity” (hold debt assets, issue equity liabilities) strategy of emerging markets did mitigate the effects of the global financial crisis.     

宏观经济与银行不良贷款量相关性的实证分析

不良贷款和信贷风险一直是影响着金融市场稳定发展和经济增长的核心问题,牵系着国家经济命脉。后金融危机时代,我国信贷高增长引致了银行不良资产大量积聚的潜在风险。本文试图从宏观经济视角出发,分析影响不良资产形成的诸多因素,研究商业银行不良贷款的现状,并预测在全球经济逐渐回暖的背景下可能出现的变化趋势。     

Bank lending and the business cycle: Does ownership matter in ASEAN countries?

We analyze the lending cyclicality of 213 ASEAN commercial banks over the period 2001–2015. The findings indicate that lending by private banks is procyclical while lending by state banks is countercyclical. Long-term liabilities also move countercyclically for state banks whereas funding for non-state banks in the form of deposit and long-term liabilities is procyclical. Greater lending cyclicality is observed for both private and state banks in Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam (CMLV) compared to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore (ASEAN-5). Lending of non-ASEAN based foreign banks shows greater procyclicality than that of domestic banks for the ASEAN-5 countries, although not for the CMLV countries. During the global financial crisis, lending by non-ASEAN based foreign banks contracted sharply even as lending by ASEAN based foreign banks was unaffected. Overall, our results confirm that bank ownership influences lending and funding sensitivity to economic fluctuations.     

Financial reform and credit extension in Lesotho

The study on which this article is based was concerned with establishing whether the lending behaviour of Lesotho's commercial banks in relation to the private sector has changed following the reforms that have been implemented since 1980. The influence of macroeconomic variables on agricultural credit and on private sector lending provided through the existing commercial banks during the period 1980 to 1993 was examined. The results showed a high and significant association between total credit extension and the general performance of the economy. Macroeconomic variables such as returns on financial securities in Lesotho and bonds in the Republic of South Africa, bank discount rates and the interest rates on saving deposits applicable in Lesotho had a key effect on the extension of credit by commercial banks to the private sector. The study concluded that credit extension activities in Lesotho during the study period were sensitive to the macroeconomic environment.     

Bank financial structure in pre-crisis East and Southeast Asia

Seeking evidence on the role of bank governance in the 1997 crisis, we study financial structure and bank performance from 1987 to 1997. Financial performance ratios (capital adequacy, liquidity, profitability, and loan preference) are regressed on structural variables (bank assets, net income, administrative expenses, and time), focusing on banks’ management efficiency and financial performance. During financial liberalization, loan-preference ratios were higher, perhaps signaling more risk; so were capital-adequacy ratios. Capital adequacy falls, then rises as management size increases; profitability behaves oppositely, indicating diminishing returns. Thailand’s, Korea’s and Indonesia’s banks show stronger lending preference but weaker profitability; possible harbingers of crisis.     

Monetary policy transmission and macroeconomic policy coordination in Pacific island countries

During the global financial crisis, central banks in Pacific island countries eased monetary policy to stimulate economic activity. Judging by the ensuing movements in commercial bank interest rates and private sector credit, monetary policy transmission appears to be weak. This is confirmed by an empirical examination of interest rate pass‐through and credit growth. Weak credit demand and under‐developed financial markets seem to have limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, but the inflexibility of exchange rates and rising real interest rates have also served to frustrate the central banks' efforts despite a supporting fiscal policy. While highlighting the importance of developing domestic financial markets in the long run, this experience also points to the need to coordinate macroeconomic policies and to use all macroeconomic tools available in conducting countercyclical policies, including exchange rate flexibility.     

Expansionary monetary policy and credit allocation: Evidence from China

We identify the impact of expansionary monetary policy in China during the 2008–2009 global financial crisis on the credit and investment allocation among firms. We obtain robust evidence that expansionary monetary policy led to the misallocation of bank credit to less productive firms after controlling for confounding factors. However, we find that investment increased more for more productive firms. Additional analyses show that this occurred partly because more productive firms hoarded cash before the crisis, and partly because less productive firms invested more in financial assets.     

银行业在中小企业融资服务领域的经验及启示——以成都市为例

本文立足银行信贷视角,结合全球金融危机以及成都市西部金融中心建设背景,分析成都市中小企业面临的金融环境;然后总结成都市银行业在中小企业融资服务领域的经验;最后,本文从政策性银行作用的发挥、信贷风险控制、金融机构市场定位、银行业发展战略等四方面提出了启示。