Spatially varying impacts of built environment factors on rail transit ridership at station level: A case study in Guangzhou,China

Understanding the relationship between the rail transit ridership and the built environment is crucial to promoting transit-oriented development and sustainable urban growth. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) models have previously been employed to reveal the spatial differences in such relationships at the station level. However, few studies characterized the built environment at a fine scale and associated them with rail transit usage. Moreover, none of the existing studies attempted to categorize the stations for policy-making considering varying impacts of the built environment. In this study, taking Guangzhou as an example, we integrated multi-source spatial big data, such as high spatial resolution remote sensing images, points of interest (POIs), social media and building footprint data to precisely quantify the characteristics of the built environment. This was combined with a GWR model to understand how the impacts of the fine-scale built environment factors on the rail transit ridership vary across the study region. The k-means clustering method was employed to identify distinct station groups based on the coefficients of the GWR model at the local stations. Policy zoning was proposed based on the results and differentiated planning guidance was suggested for different zones. These recommendations are expected to help increase rail transit usage, inform rail transit planning (to relieve the traffic burden on currently crowed lines), and re-allocate industrial and living facilities to reduce the commute for the residents. The policy and planning implications are crucial for the coordinated development of the rail transit system and land use.     

Exploring the impacts of land use by service coverage and station-level accessibility on rail transit ridership

In this study, we employ spatial regression analysis to empirically investigate the impacts of land use, rail service coverage, and rail station accessibility on rail transit ridership in the city of Seoul and the surrounding metropolitan region. Our analyses suggest that a rail transit service coverage boundary of 500 m provides the best fit for estimating rail transit ridership levels. With regard to land use, our results confirm that density is positively related to rail transit ridership within a 750 m radius of each station. In contrast, land use diversity is not associated with rail transit ridership. We also found that station-level accessibility is as important as land use for explaining rail transit ridership levels. Finally, we conclude that development density and station-level accessibility measures such as the number of station entrances or exits and the number of bus routes at the station are the most important and consistent factors for promoting rail transit ridership.     

Catchment if you can: The effect of station entrance and exit locations on accessibility

The success of passenger railway systems depends on their ridership and thus the population they serve. A mechanism to increase ridership is to expose the existing system to more people by reconfiguring the station itself, for instance by adding extra entrance and exit gates to shorten the walking distance from a trip's origin or its final destination. Gates are key nodes giving pedestrians access from street network to boarding/alighting facilities and vice versa. Stations and platforms are places not points, passengers may spend up to 6 min a trip walking between platforms and the end of the station nearest their origin or destination. This study systematically evaluates the accessibility of train stations and the effect of constructing an additional ‘far-side’ gate at stations with a single ‘near-side’ entrance. A three-step approach is defined to generate an isochrone as the catchment area for any transport node. Results indicate that stations with a single gate along their platforms (usually on one end of them) have the potential to increase the accessibility to jobs and population by around 10% on average. Due to the walking network and land use characteristics, some stations will benefit more significantly by retrofitting a new gate. Also, four linear regression models are developed to illustrate the effect of expanded accessibility on the number of entries and exits at each station for two peak periods. Then, stations are ranked based on their added ridership, which can help authorities to prioritize the development and allocating resources.     

铁路＋物业服务＋效益——新一代铁路旅客车站设计探索

我国近期建设的以高铁站为代表的第三代铁路客站,强调“以人为本”的理念,创新成就斐然,但对车站的经济效益尚缺少分析和规划,存在经营短板。在铁路体制改革的今天,“以人为本”的服务更需要长期良好的经营效益来保障和维持。在分析铁路客站发展轨迹的基础上．着重从铁路与物业结合的方式、旅客与顾客的关系、建筑设计与商业策划原则等方面探讨“铁路＋物业”的客站模式,以期为新一代铁路旅客车站的建设方向提供参考。     

Transit ridership estimation with network Kriging: a case study of Second Avenue Subway,NYC

An attractive topic in transportation practice is transit ridership estimation. Reliable estimates are beneficial to spatial structuring, facility design, and vehicle operation, as well as financial and labor management. Traditional ridership estimation approaches mainly rely on regression models that consider subway fares, population, and employment distribution in surrounding areas. Yet consideration of ridership’s spatial dependency is largely lacking in these models. This paper recognizes the spatial effect by estimating the ridership of the new Second Avenue Subway in New York City using a network Kriging method. Network distance, instead of Euclidean distance, is used to reflect the fact that subway stations are only connected by subway tunnels. Results show that the new service should effectively relieve the traffic burden on other currently crowded subway lines.     

Transit-oriented development,integration of land use and transport,and pedestrian accessibility: Combining node-place model with pedestrian shed ratio to evaluate and classify station areas in Lisbon

Transit-oriented development is being actively promoted as an urban design model for areas around transit stations. In addition, planning for accessibility is being promoted, which requires integrating land use with transportation planning, and to match the transportation features with the intensity and diversity of land use of the station areas. Nevertheless, and despite the evident similarities between the two approaches, an integrated evaluation tool of a station area in terms of its transportation, land use, and urban design features is missing. In this paper, we bring into the literature on integration of land use and transport a key feature of the transit-oriented development literature: the urban design features of the station areas, in particular their pedestrian friendliness. By complementing the node-place model with an evaluation of the pedestrian connectivity of station areas of Lisbon, we combine these two perspectives in order to evaluate and classify station areas in three different aspects: land use, transportation, and walkability conditions. Our results show that a balanced node-place is not necessarily a transit-oriented development, and vice versa, and so a complementary analysis of both is useful to identify and classify a station area. Therefore, we suggest a typology of station areas based on the three components, which might be used as a planning tool for the development of the station areas into balanced transit-oriented development areas.     

Exploring the spatial variations of transfer distances between dockless bike-sharing systems and metros

Dockless bike-sharing is emerging as a convenient transfer mode for metros. The riding distances of bike-sharing to or from metro stations are defined as transfer distances between dockless bike-sharing systems and metros, which determine the service coverages of metro stations. However, the transfer distances have rarely been studied and they may vary from station to station. Therefore, this study aims to explore the influencing factors and spatial variations of transfer distances between dockless bike-sharing systems and metros. First, a catchment method was proposed to identify bike-sharing transfer trips. Then, the Mobike trip data, metro smartcard data, and built environment data in Shanghai were utilized to calculate the transfer distances and travel-related and built environment variables. Next, a multicollinearity test, stepwise regression, and spatial autocorrelation test were conducted to select the best explanatory variables. Finally, a geographically weighted regression model was adopted to examine the spatially varying relationships between the 85th percentile transfer distances and selected explanatory variables at different metro stations. The results show that the transfer distances are correlated with the daily metro ridership, daily bike-sharing ridership, population density, parking lot density, footway density, percentage of tourism attraction, distance from CBD, and bus stop density around metro stations. Besides, the effects of the explanatory variables on transfer distances vary across space. Generally, most variables have greater effects on transfer distances in the city suburbs. This study can help governments and operators expand the service coverage of metro stations and facilitate the integration of dockless bike-sharing and metros.     

Modelling the joint access mode and railway station choice

This study models the choices of Dutch railway users. We find a steeper negative distance effect on the utility of departure stations accessed by the non-motorized modes of walking and bicycle as compared to the motorized modes of car and public transport. Availability of parking places and bicycle standing areas have a positive effect on the choice of departure railway stations accessed by car and bicycle, respectively. Public transport frequency has a positive whereas travel time has a negative effect on the choice of departure stations accessed by public transport. The derived rail service quality index (RSQI), which provides a measure of rail accessibility to all other stations, has a significant and positive effect on the choice of departure stations accessed by all modes. The outcome of this paper can be used to develop a comprehensive railway accessibility indicator for neighbourhoods, for hedonic pricing studies.     

Modeling bike-sharing demand using a regression model with spatially varying coefficients

As an emerging mobility service, bike-sharing has become increasingly popular around the world. A critical question in planning and designing bike-sharing services is to know how different factors, such as land-use and built environment, affect bike-sharing demand. Most research investigated this problem from a holistic view using regression models, where assume the factor coefficients are spatially homogeneous. However, ignoring the local spatial effects of different factors is not tally with facts. Therefore, we develop a regression model with spatially varying coefficients to investigate how land use, social-demographic, and transportation infrastructure affect the bike-sharing demand at different stations to address this problem. Unlike existing geographically weighted models, we define station-specific regression and use a graph structure to encourage nearby stations to have similar coefficients. Using the bike-sharing data from the BIXI service in Montreal, we showcase the spatially varying patterns in the regression coefficients and highlight more sensitive areas to the marginal change of a specific factor. The proposed model also exhibits superior out-of-sample prediction power compared with traditional machine learning models and geostatistical models.     

An analysis of air mass effects on rail ridership in three US cities

This paper examines whether daily weather affects ridership in urban transportation systems. When examining human–weather relationships, it is often advantageous to examine air masses, which take into account the entire parcel of air over a region. Spatial synoptic classification characterizes air masses based upon numerous meteorological variables at a given location. Thus, rather than examining temperature or precipitation individually, here we compare daily ridership to synoptic air mass classifications for three urban rail systems: Chicago Transit Authority (CTA), Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART), and the Hudson–Bergen light-rail line in northern New Jersey. Air masses are found to have a significant impact on daily rail ridership, with usage typically increasing on dry, comfortable days and decreasing on moist, cool ones, particularly on weekends. Although the comfort of a particular air mass changes throughout the year, seasonality is not a significant factor with respect to the air mass–ridership relationship. The results of this study can benefit rail system managers who must predict daily ridership or in the development of cost-benefit analyses for station improvements.     

基于轨道交通整体网络的市域铁路线路规划研究

随着我国城市化进程不断推进,市域铁路发展需求不断增加,科学制定市域铁路线路规划,对推进新型城镇化市域铁路发展具有重要意义。在阐述市域铁路线路规划影响因素及结构模式选择的基础上,综合线路选择模型与线网规划模型的特点,建立市域铁路线路规划两阶段联合模型,先通过基于自身建设目标的线路规划模型中所得到较优备选线路集合,再联合基于轨道交通整体网络的线路比选模型的二次筛选,得出一个综合优化的市域铁路线路选择方案。以成德市域铁路线路规划为例,验证线路规划结果,为市域铁路线路规划研究提供借鉴。     

Understanding bus rapid transit route ridership drivers: An empirical study of Australian BRT systems

Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems are an increasingly popular public transport option internationally. They provide rail-like quality for bus services for a fraction of the cost of fixed rail. Many claims of high and increasing ridership have resulted from BRT system development; however, it is unclear exactly which aspects of BRT system design drive this. This paper explores whether BRT design features, among other influences, significantly increase ridership above and beyond the impact of service levels. It does so using a series of regression models undertaken on 77 BRT and non-BRT bus routes in Australia which is known for its diversity in BRT route design. Explanatory variables used included service level, frequency, speed, stop spacing, share of segregated right of way, vehicle accessibility, employment and residential density, car ownership levels and BRT infrastructure quality. Five models explored the role of these variables. Two models found that service level dominates predictions of boardings per route km although they suffer from endogeneity. Further models control for this influence by modelling boardings per vehicle km. Overall results suggest that some BRT infrastructure treatments such as right of way have a significant impact on ridership but the influence of infrastructure is within the context of high service levels. The role of accessible vehicles has also been highlighted in this research, although more research is needed to clarify this influence. The paper concludes with a discussion of the various influences on ridership and recommendations for existing policy and future research.     

Analysis on bike-share ridership for origin-destination pairs: Effects of public transit route characteristics and land-use patterns

Studies on bike-share programs have dramatically increased during the past decades. While numerous studies have examined various factors affecting bike-share demand at the station-level, few attempts have been made to understand bike-share ridership at the origin-destination (OD) level due to technical difficulties. The objective of this study is to examine whether existing public transit characteristics affect bike-share ridership at OD-level. We combined three datasets: (1) bike-share ridership data, (2) land-use and bike-transit infrastructure, and (3) bike-transit route characteristics between OD pairs of bike stations. Zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression models were used for the analysis. Our results showed that the travel distance between OD bike stations, land-use compositions, and the existence of bike-friendly infrastructures were significant factors determining bike-share ridership at the OD-level. In particular, a longer duration of public transit trips than bike-share, and more transit transfers, were associated with bike-share ridership. Further, this study showed that bike-share and public transit might compete with or promote each other, even within the city. The study's findings suggest that the relative efficiency of bike-share compared to public transit is highly associated with bike-share demand and help to increase the utility of bike-share system in response to several limitations of existing public transit networks.     

Trip end models of local rail demand in England and Wales

This paper details models which have been developed to forecast the total number of trips made from local rail stations in England and Wales over a one year period. The use of multiple linear regression and geographically weighted regression in calibration are compared, with both explaining over 75% of the variation in the observed data. The latter technique has not previously been used in rail demand modelling, and allows significant spatial variations in the effect of independent variables to be identified and mapped. A number of catchment definition methods are investigated, as is the inclusion of a wide range of demographic and service related explanatory variables. The models developed are used to forecast usage at stations on the recently opened Ebbw Vale branch line in South Wales and these predictions are compared to initial usage figures.     

Evaluating sustainability and land use integration of BRT stations via extended node place model,an application on BRT stations of Tehran

Modern transportation planners and urban designers are looking for a practical solution toward sustainable, accessible, and cost-effective development of public transportation. Achieving a well-balanced transit-oriented development (TOD) requires a clear illustration of the existing public transportation, land use, and correlations between them. Bus rapid transit (BRT) is a well-known strategy toward developing high-quality transit networks and would be a reasonable transportation choice if allied with a suitable walkable design in surrounding areas. In this paper, the node-place model is developed and applied on BRT stations in Tehran to be analyzed and clustered using three extended TOD indicators. The design index, representing the accessibility and walking potential, is further improved by measuring spatial specifications and walkway density parameters. Furthermore, the place index, representing demand and land use specifications of the area, is investigated through the calculation of possible destination points (PDPs) in the vicinity of stations. The model is reapplied after correlation analyses on input data to find stations' behavior by using more effective parameters. The results indicate that appropriate access to the stations requires a tight network of walkways that offers multiple routes to the stations. Meanwhile, a dense and sophisticated pedestrian area needs to offer short routes with minimum turns required to reach the station. Moreover, in each station, some factors are found to be more dominating. Changes in these factors have more profound effects than other factors. This paper aims to identify these factors and help planners develop TOD areas sustainably.     

Performance analysis of rail transit investments in Turkey: İstanbul,Ankara, İzmir and Bursa

Rail transit investments require the highest amount of investment costs of all modes. Considering the high cost involved, it is particularly important that their performance justifies this high cost and that expectations from these investments are met. Therefore, in the world, it has become an important field of research to study the gap between the expectations from and outcomes of these investments in order to assess the performances.In Turkey, there is a growing interest in constructing rail transit systems in the cities. However, there has been a limited number of studies on the performance of these investments. It is not clear with what expectations these systems are built or whether these expectations are met. There seems to be an urgent need to study these rail investments, with a particular focus on their planning/investment objectives and outcomes.This paper compares the expectations with the actual outcomes. A sample group was selected among the cities currently operating rail transit systems: ?stanbul, Ankara, ?zmir and Bursa. Semi-structured interviews were made with the officers and planners that have involved in the planning or implementation phase of the systems. As the primary indicators of performance, cost and ridership forecast and outcome data are collected and considered in the comparison.It is found that systems performed rather poor in terms of expectations, such as attaining ridership forecasts, being built within budget etc. Hence there is a gap between expectations and outcomes.     

Integrated railways-based policies: The Regional Metro System (RMS) project of Naples and Campania

The Campania Regional Metro System (RMS) project is an example of integrated land-use, infrastructure and operational planning. The whole project is based on the idea of integrating the existing railway lines into a single physical network by building some new links, new stations and new modal interchange facilities. The RMS project integrates also operational components such as service lines, timetables and integrated pricing. In addition to the transit “supply-side” elements, the project includes relevant “demand-side” aspects, including town planning based on the rail network, urban renewal around rail stations and upgraded and new stations with high architectural standards and a new symbolic value. This paper describes the general structure of the project. It also discusses some preliminary results on land-use and modal shift after the implementation of the first stage of the project, which included 43 km of new railways lines, 30 new stations, an integrated timetable and a single integrated ticket.     

Land development implications of the British rail freight renaissance

The post-war era saw a dramatic decline in both the volume and market share of freight transported by rail in Britain. This decline was associated with the closure of thousands of rail freight facilities and reduction by one third in the route mileage of the national railway network. However, as a result of railway privatisation and increasing constraints on the competitiveness of the road haulage industry, the long decline has halted and rail freight traffic is growing. This article reviews the implications of this change for the demand for rail freight facilities and for extra capacity in the railway network, and considers how the land-use planning and transport planning systems might respond.     

突发大客流在城市轨道交通网络中的传播机理

根据突发大客流在城市轨道交通车站的作业性质和特点,将城市轨道交通网络中的车站分为发生站、换乘站和中间站。在此基础上,通过站台候车区的乘客密度、到达列车的剩余载客能力、站台候车乘客数和乘客上车效率等因素,构建站台候车区乘客密度影响模型和列车运行延误时间模型,并总结出突发大客流在城市轨道交通网络中的传播机理。从车站服务水平和列车运行影响两个方面对突发大客流传播的影响因素及相应的调整措施进行分析。     

Understanding the roles of rail stations: Insights from network approaches in the London metropolitan area

In strategic transport planning, rail stations play different roles at different scales, particularly in large cities and metropolitan regions, where movement structure shows polycentric patterns. However, there is a general lack of evidence-based studies investigating the relative network roles of rail stations. Therefore, this paper aims to explore rail stations' roles within and beyond metropolitan communities in London. Drawing on the Transport for London's newly released NUMBAT passenger origin-destination data, we unravel the travel structure and identify the stations' roles through network methods, community detection and Z-P scores. Our research has three results: First, London's passenger movement network can be subdivided into seven communities. The majority of stations within the same communities are geographically localised with few exceptions. Second, stations play distinct roles in handling the patterns of movement at different scales. Typically, there exists a set of stations that are significant for connecting between metropolitan communities, because the disruption of those stations will have a greater impact on overall network efficiency and affect a larger and more diverse group of passengers. Third, a classification of rail stations is developed based on stations' commitment at two scales. This classification allows planners to have a finer level of understanding of the network role of the stations and thus develop and adjust tailored (re)development strategies.