退休对居民健康的影响——基于断点回归方法的研究

在实施健康中国战略背景下,科学评估退休政策对国民健康的影响具有重要意义。本文基于2011—2015年中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,把法定退休年龄作为断点,使用断点回归设计研究退休对居民健康的影响及其作用机制和异质性。结果发现:退休对男性自评健康和心理健康具有显著的负面影响,并显著提高了男性的就医概率,但对女性健康的影响并不显著。进一步研究表明,受教育水平较高的男性受到退休政策的负面冲击更加显著。退休通过显著影响居民健康行为、认知能力和社交活动等渠道对健康产生作用。因此,中国出台渐进式延迟退休政策有助于居民优化全生命周期内的健康水平。国家需要不断完善新时代社会保障制度和退休政策,加大健康预防和干预力度,培育居民健康生活意识和健康行为,提升国民健康素养,把健康目标融入相关老龄政策,改善国民健康福利水平。     

我国内部控制强制披露政策的干预效应研究——来自断点回归的经验证据

聚焦我国非国有控股主板上市公司,严格筛选样本,构造精确断点回归模型,专注研究我国全面内部控制评价和披露政策本身的因果干预效应。研究发现,我国的内部控制强制披露政策有正的干预效应,内部控制政策的实施使得公司对资源的利用效率和效果得以提高,合规本身对企业来讲意义重大。建议进一步推进我国上市公司全面内部控制建设和披露工作,将强制实施范围扩展到非主板上市公司,在全部上市公司范围内实施内部控制强制披露和审计。     

上海市最低工资标准的确定与评价分析

本文通过构建影响上海市最低工资标准的指标体系,利用因子分析方法建立了上海市最低工资标准确定的一般数学模型。利用模型分析了上海市最低工资标准的合理性,并对其完善提出了观点和建议。     

劳动力工资水平标准探讨

劳动力工资水平作为关乎国计民生的重大问题,一直受到政府部门和社会各界的高度关注。文章采用理论分析与实证研究相结合的研究方法,利用专业的计量经济学软件Eviews,分析出与劳动力工资水平密切相关的宏观因素。     

Effects of a mileage tax for trucks

We evaluate the effect of the introduction of a mileage tax for trucks in Switzerland in 2001 on traffic volume and externalities. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find a reduction in overall truck traffic of around 4–6%, no effects on car traffic and time-shifted placebos, suggestive evidence for traffic substitution toward rail, and negative effects on nitrogen oxides at curbside monitors. Complementary estimates on the effects of the German mileage tax and complementary estimates based on the synthetic control method are broadly consistent with our main results, although the latter are not statistically significant. Depending on prevailing levels of transportation costs, mileage tax-induced transportation cost increases may accelerate or reverse spatial economic concentration processes. Such implications for economic geography featured prominently in Switzerland and are a promising area for future research.     

最低工资与全要素生产率：机制讨论与经验证据

最低工资标准逐年上调导致企业劳动力成本不断上升,其对我国企业全要素生产率影响存在争议。将2012—2019年全国405个地级市最低工资标准数据和中国上市公司数据匹配,从要素替代和技术替代效应两个视角探讨其内在影响机制。研究发现：最低工资上调会降低企业的全要素生产率;最低工资对企业全要素生产率挤出效应表现为国有企业和融资约束程度越高的企业挤出效应更强,中部地区的挤出效应强于东部地区;最低工资标准越高,企业越倾向于通过要素替代和技术替代来改变生产效率。研究对提高全要素生产率和实现经济高质量发展具有重要参考意义。     

When product type experimental design is optimal? Brief survey and new results

In the paper the problem of optimum experimental design for estimating parameters of multivariate regression functions is considered. We address the question: under what conditions one can compose the optimal design from partial designs, obtained by considering partial regressions, which depend on reduced number of variables. After reinterpreting and reviewing briefly existing results we provide some new conditions.     

最小方差自校正控制仿真研究

文章主要介绍了自校正控制和最小方差自校正控制的基本原理,设计用Matlab软件在计算机上如何完成最小方差控制的算法。被控对象参数往往是未知的,利用自校正控制技术,可以在线实时辨识参数,使输出量的稳态值方差最小,并和常规PID控制进行比较,体现出最小方差自校正控制的优越性。最后通过Matlab软件在Simulink环境下对其进行仿真研究。     

Pre-crisis reforms,austerity measures and the public-private wage gap in two emerging economies

This paper analyzes crisis adjustments of the public and private sectors in two emerging market economies, Croatia and Serbia, during the 2008–2011 period. It focuses on public-private wage gaps at the onset of and during the crisis, decomposed into structural and composition effects using an extension to the Oaxaca-Blinder method based on Recentered Influence Function (RIF) regressions and reweighting. The main results indicate that at the beginning of the crisis public sector workers in both countries enjoyed a significant wage premium, with the premium in Serbia being about three times higher than in Croatia. During the crisis, both countries experienced a similar increase of the premium, with Croatia reaching the size of gap usually estimated for EU countries, while Serbia stayed largely ahead. The results also show that the wage distribution in the public sector is more compressed than in the private sector in both countries, which is further exacerbated by the crisis. Despite the introduced austerity measures, public sector workers continue to enjoy well-protected and privileged jobs in terms of wages relative to their private sector counterparts. Structural reforms undertaken prior to the crisis played a decisive role in determining the countries’ responses to the crisis.     

基于产权视角的企业集团内部控制分析

作为在"一体化"趋势下,企业追求规模经济、范围经济的产物,企业集团本质上是一组以产权关系为纽带的多重契约关系,从而赋予了信息不对称问题更广泛的涵义。产权关系作为联接集团各层次的主要纽带,相应地,协调企业集团各层次的产权关系在内部控制制度体系中便占据了特殊的重要地位,而且在某种意义上,企业集团内部控制本质上体现为多层次产权关系的明确界定。     

基于满应变准则的大规模桁架结构的最小柔度设计

针对大规模桁架结构,推导出一种结构优化设计方法。其设计目标为整个结构的柔度最小,也即刚度最大;采用的力学准则为满应变设计准则;在整个桁架结构重量满足一定约束的前提下,通过优化各杆件截面积,达到整体柔度最小。仿真结果表明,该方法可以在有限迭代步数下实现桁架结构总体柔度最小。将两次迭代所有杆截面积之差总和作为停机准则,随着停机准则的减小,整个计算所用迭代次数逐渐增大,所需计算时间也逐渐增长。在实际应用中,应根据实际需求和成本限制综合确定停机准则。     

Choice of optimal initial designs in sequential experiments

Combined-optimal designs (Li and Lin, 2003) are obviously the best choices for the initial designs if we partition the experiment into two parts with equal size to obtain some information about the process, especially for the case not considering the blocking factor. In this paper, the definition of combined-optimal design is extended to the case when blocking factor is significant, and this new class of designs is called blocked combined-optimal designs. Some general results are obtained which relate 2^k−p_III initial designs with their complementary designs when , where n=2^k−p. By applying these results, we are able to characterize 2^k−p_III combined-optimal designs or blocked combined-optimal designs in terms of their complementary designs. It is also proved that both 2^k−p_III combined-optimal and blocked combined-optimal designs are not minimum aberration designs when and n−1−k > 2. And some combined-optimal and blocked combined-optimal designs with 16 and 32 runs are constructed for illustration. 2000 Mathematics Subject Classifications: 62K15, 62K05     

随机事件冲击下的金融预期事件分析：模型与实证

为了全面研究金融市场的随机事件以及准确分析后续预期事件,从随机事件和预期事件全样本角度出发,首先,构建了统一框架下的双断点回归模型,并从理论分析的角度阐述了新模型的可行性、优越性和广义性;然后,以“长生疫苗”和“长生退市”为对象,进行两次断点回归和双断点回归的拟合实证,结果分别从拟合效果、参数趋势、稳健性、实际内涵上展示了新模型在预期事件研究中的优越性,表明中国医药市场属于成熟型市场,适合理性投资者关注。研究结论为相关投资者和监管者未来进一步处理随机事件对金融市场的冲击提供了参考。     

高收入阶层的有效调控：最低替代税的国际实践与中国方案

最低替代税(AMT)能实现对高收入阶层的有效调控,研究其国际实践与制度设计对我国个人所得税改革具有一定的参考价值。在回顾AMT发展历程与实践效果的基础上,根据税收优惠、宽免额、税率、税收抵免等四个AMT税制要素,结合现实国情设计32种中国方案。基于CHFS2019数据通过再分配效应测算以及对各税制要素的贡献分解,研究表明：对我国收入排序前20%的高收入纳税人额外征收税率为10%的AMT,再辅之以180000元/年的宽免额标准和综合所得项目扣除,是解决我国高收入阶层税收逆向调节问题的最佳方案。     

中国跨境交叉上市企业内部控制有效性实证研究

跨境交叉上市逐渐产生并发展起来,且随着我国经济快速发展,跨境交叉上市企业的数量已经大幅增加。本文借鉴国内外相关研究成果,结合我国实际,研究跨境交叉上市对内部控制有效性的影响,以2014²016年间我国同时在境内和美国、中国香港跨境上市的企业作为研究样本进行分析。运用统计分析、相关分析、回归分析研究跨境交叉上市企业的内部控制有效性以及跨境交叉上市对企业内部控制有效性的作用,最后提出相应对策。     

企业边界的变动及其对我国企业的启示

科层制曾经是最有效率的组织形式,在这种体制下形成了明确的企业边界,包括企业内部边界和企业外部边界。随着新经济时代的到来,企业外部环境发生了巨变,科层制阻碍了企业的发展,企业的边界也随环境的变化而发生变动。本文具体探讨企业边界的变动形式,并对我国企业如何在这种环境下求得生存和发展提出战略性对策。