Random and fuzzy utility models for road route choice

The objective of this work is the specification, calibration and validation of a route choice model distinguishing the phases of set perception and route choice among the alternatives belonging to the chosen set. Route generation is performed with a selective multi-criteria approach; route choice is performed using random and fuzzy utility models. As regards the fuzzy utility models, a new specification of a fuzzy model is introduced. Random and fuzzy utility models are compared and applied on a test road network and were specified and calibrated for national road freight transport on a real Italy-wide network.     

Exploring the choice of battery electric vehicles in city logistics: A conjoint-based choice analysis

Adoption of electric vehicles by transport companies remains limited although major European cities should reach CO₂-free city logistics by 2030. This paper explores therefore the vehicle choice behaviour of transport companies through a conjoint-based choice analysis.The results showed that the benefits of battery electric vehicles are less valued than their disadvantages. However, a majority of respondents agrees that authorities should encourage the use of battery electric vehicles. Based on the preferences of transporters, we conclude that the most important measures are to develop a larger charging infrastructure and implement financial incentives through subsidies or tax exemption.     

Passengers' airport choice and airports' catchment area analysis in cross-border Upper Adriatic multi-airport region

Although much research has been performed on passengers' origin airport choice, there is little research on airports' catchment area size and even less on airports' catchment areas in cross-border regions. This paper addresses passengers' airport choice and analyzes airports' catchment area size and its homogeneity in the Upper Adriatic region. Using the results of passengers' survey at three regional airports (Ljubljana Jože Pučnik Airport (LJU), Venice Marco Polo Airport (VCE) and Trieste Pietro Savorgnan di Brazza Airport (TRS)) we have estimated the airports' catchment areas and airports market shares therein using multinomial logit (MNL) model structure. To additionally explore the passengers' airport choice behavior considering the different sensitivity across travellers to regional, demographic and airports attributes and account for preference heterogeneity in airport choice a mixed logit model was used. The results indicated that the three airports have relatively small core catchment areas and that the market share rapidly decreases with the increasing access time to airport. Partially, the results reinforced earlier findings showing that access time to airport is the most important determinant in airport choice for all segments (business/leisure and cross-border/domestic), however the sensitivity to access time is more pronounced in business and domestic group. Additionally, the results indicated pronounced loyalty to domestic airports and generally low importance of ticket prices, and show that in market conditions where all airports in the region have a low-cost carrier (LCC) the effect of LCC on airport choice is limited. Finally, the results indicated that the borders might have an influence on airport choice and that overall, in the cross-border regions the passengers’ airport choice process is even more complex than in non cross-border regions.     

An analysis of drivers route choice behaviour using GPS data and optimal alternatives

This work aims to study drivers' route choices using a dataset of low frequency GPS coordinates to identify travels' trajectories. The sample consists of 89 drivers who performed 42 thousand paths in the province of Reggio Emilia, in Italy, during the seventeen considered months. Four attributes that may be important for the driver are identified and four optimal alternative paths are created based on the selected objectives to evaluate route choice behaviour. The comparison between the characteristics of the paths allows to conclude that drivers select routes that are overall longer than their optimal alternatives but that allow for higher speeds. Furthermore the statistical analysis of drivers' route choices in macroareas evidences that drivers have different behaviours depending on the geography of the territory. Specifically, there is higher heterogeneity of route choices in the plain areas compared to the mountains. In the second part of this work, clusters of repetitive travels are identified and a Geographical Route Directness Index is proposed to identify the areas of the province where the deviation from the shortest alternative path is higher. The analysis shows that, among groups of repetitive travels, the value of the index is higher along the ring road of the city of Reggio Emilia and there is a strong negative correlation between the frequency the driver selects the longer alternative that allow for higher speed, and the number of additional kilometres the same driver has to travel.     

Capacity and toll choice of an add-on toll road under various ownership regimes

This paper considers the problem of how to select the toll and capacity levels of a new toll road added onto an existing network with a single link. The existing network has various ownership regimes: free, public or private owned toll road. The effects of the ownership regime of the existing network on the capacity and toll selections of the add-on toll road, the efficiency of the whole network in the sense of total social benefit, and the investment incentives of the government to develop the new road are investigated when the traffic demand is elastic or inelastic.     

Capacity and toll choice of an add-on toll road under various ownership regimes

This paper considers the problem of how to select the toll and capacity levels of a new toll road added onto an existing network with a single link. The existing network has various ownership regimes: free, public or private owned toll road. The effects of the ownership regime of the existing network on the capacity and toll selections of the add-on toll road, the efficiency of the whole network in the sense of total social benefit, and the investment incentives of the government to develop the new road are investigated when the traffic demand is elastic or inelastic.     

Identifying influential attributes in freight route/mode choice decisions: a content analysis

The adoption of Stated Preference (SP) techniques in freight route/mode choice studies requires the identification of the major modal attributes which influence these decisions. While there is a need to limit the number of attributes and attribute levels in order that the number of combinations (decision alternatives) presented to respondents is at a manageable level, it is also important that these variables are accurately identified and specified. In the majority of empirical studies, methods employed for performing this task have tended to revolve around either focus groups, interviews, unscientific syntheses of previous studies or even merely the feel or hypotheses of the researchers. This paper explains and presents the application of a content analysis methodology to the (mostly Western) freight route/mode choice literature, thereby providing a formal approach to the identification and justification of the attributes that are to be utilised within (Stated Preference) SP experiments. The implications for attribute selection in empirical studies are discussed, with particular reference to the Eastern European context.     

Analysis of the impact of street-scale built environment design near metro stations on pedestrian and cyclist road segment choice: A stated choice experiment

The mismatch between the design of the micro-scale built environment around metro stations and pedestrian/cyclist preferences causes inconvenience and dissatisfaction. How to design streets near metro stations to provide a walking/biking friendly built environment is still a key question in promoting the use of metro systems. To identify which general attributes of the street-scale built environment are relevant for pedestrians/cyclists and increase walkability/cycle-ability, this paper reports the results of a stated choice experiment in which eight built environment attributes were systematically varied: street segment length, average number of building floors on both sides of the street, retail shops in frontage of streets, street crossing facilities for pedestrians/cyclists, width of sidewalks/bicycle paths, greenery, density of street lamps and crowdedness of pedestrian/cyclists to understand their influence on a road segment choice and preferences. A total of 803 respondents were recruited from Tianjin, China to complete the stated choice experiment through on-street face-to-face interviews. A multinomial logit model was estimated to unravel pedestrian/cyclist preferences using the stated choice data. The results indicate that pedestrians and cyclists have similar preferences for road segments with building lower than 6 floors, 50% retail shops in frontage, more greenery, lamps between 15 m and 30 m, more crossing facilities, wider sidewalk/bike lane and not crowded. These significant built environment attributes can be used in urban design projects with a walking/biking friendly built environment around a metro station.     

Road environments and bicyclist route choice: The cases of Davis and San Francisco,CA

Examining bicyclists' route choices provides valuable insights into the importance of road environments for bicycling. In this study, we examine the role of road factors, individual factors, and preference heterogeneity on route choice using two diverse and extreme cases in the U.S. The first case is bicycling to the University of California, Davis campus by students, faculty, and staff. This case represents the most bike friendly environment in the U.S. which affords a diverse bicycling population. The second case is bicycling to many destinations for many purposes in San Francisco, CA. It is more representative of a large U.S. city, but also has a relatively large bicycling mode share. It serves as an important case for examining the new innovative type of bicycling infrastructure that has been installed in North American cities over the past decade. Results suggest substantial within-city between-person heterogeneity in preference for road attributes and bicycling facilities as well as differences between contexts. Davisites show strong preferences for bike lanes and off-street paths and consistently choose routes of similar length to shortest routes indicating the need for suitable routes with minimal detours to support a large bicycling mode share. San Franciscans show strong preferences for conventional bike lanes on minor arterials, even stronger preferences for separated and protected bicycling facilities, and are willing to detour considerable distances to ride on them. Given large between-person differences within cities, we suggest usual valuations of bicycling facilities from elasticities and marginal rates of substitutions at the mean may need rethinking when applied to bike infrastructure planning.     

The role of perceived acceptability of alternatives in identifying and assessing choice set processing strategies in stated choice settings: The case of road pricing reform

In designing choice experiments, it is common to present a number of alternatives to a respondent and have them choose the most preferred alternative. However, respondents may ignore one or more alternatives which they deem unacceptable for various reasons. This possibility aligns with the idea of the ‘consideration set’ which influences the choice of an alternative given the choice set of interest. This paper uses an endogenous choice set model to investigate the influence that contextual effects and socioeconomic characteristics play in explaining variations in the choice sets considered by respondents when they reveal their preferences.     

A time-period choice model for road freight transport in Flanders based on stated preference data

This paper presents one of the first models explaining the choice of time-period in road freight transport. Policies that would shift some fraction of the trucks from peak to earlier and later periods will contribute to the reduction of congestion. Therefore there is an increasing interest in modelling the time-period sensitivity of road freight transport to changes in travel time and cost by period. The model developed here is based on a stated preference survey amongst receivers of goods in Flanders and was implemented in the strategic freight transport model of the Flemish authorities.     

Shortest path or anchor-based route choice: a large-scale empirical analysis of minicab routing in London

Understanding and modelling route choice behaviour is central to predicting the formation and propagation of urban road congestion. Yet within conventional literature disagreements persist around the nature of route choice behaviour, and how it should be modelled. In this paper, both the shortest path and anchor-based perspectives on route choice behaviour are explored through an empirical analysis of nearly 700,000 minicab routes across London, United Kingdom. In the first set of analyses, the degree of similarity between observed routes and possible shortest paths is established. Shortest paths demonstrate poor performance in predicting both observed route choice and characteristics. The second stage of analysis explores the influence of specific urban features, named anchors, in route choice. These analyses show that certain features attract more route choices than would be expected were individuals choosing route based on cost minimisation alone. Instead, the results indicate that major urban features form the basis of route choice planning – being selected disproportionately more often, and causing asymmetry in route choice volumes by direction of travel. At a finer scale, decisions made at minor road features are furthermore demonstrated to influence routing patterns. The results indicate a need to revisit the basis of how routes are modelled, shifting from the shortest path perspective to a mechanism structured around urban features. In concluding, the main trends are synthesised within an initial framework for route choice modelling, and presents potential extensions of this research.     

Factors influencing cargo agents choice of operations in Abuja airport,Nigeria

The ability of an airport to attract traffic can vary within a multi-airport model of operation and highly competitive environment. This study is an effort to examine the factors that cargo agents rank as most important in their choice of Abuja airport cargo transhipment operations. A questionnaire survey was conducted on a random sample of members of the Association of Nigeria Customs Licensed Agents (ANCLA) at Abuja airport for primary data collection. The study employed a combination of Factor Analysis (FA) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) to analyse the data collected. The results of the factor loadings indicate airport capacity, airport charges and customs efficiency as the most significant factors that agents consider in their choice of handling cargo through Abuja airport. The three variables were found to have a high correlation relationship (R = 0.802) with the dependent variable of airport choice after subjecting it to regression analysis. This serves as information to airport managers for the airport planning of capacity in cargo operations within multi-airport country such as Nigeria.     

Built environment,peak hours and route choice efficiency: An investigation of commuting efficiency using GPS data

Commuting efficiency measures the impact of commuting on urban spatial and social environments. Urban policies aim to reduce commuting distances and improve commuting efficiency by supporting mixed land-use and job-housing balance. Many studies have addressed these issues by examining excess commuting at the aggregate level, and most aggregated measurements of excess commuting are based on home-to-work commuting flows between zones. However, residents' travel behaviour does not consist solely of rational attempts at minimizing commuting distances but is instead affected by commuting hours, the complexity of the commuting chain and the built environment. Thus, commuting efficiency must be studied at the individual or disaggregated levels. This paper examined individual commuting efficiency in suburban Beijing using a GPS-facilitated activity-travel survey and investigated the differences in commuting distance and route choice efficiency between morning and evening peaks. Notably, in so doing, we considered non-work stops, and also explored the impact of urban spatial factors – in both residential and working areas – on commuting efficiency using multilevel mixed effects generalized linear models. The findings suggest that there are significant differences in commuting distance and commuting efficiency between morning and evening peaks based on the nature of commutes. Residents working in city centres or with jobs near railway stations, with higher road network densities or with lower facility densities seem to be more adept at selecting optimal routes.     

Relative logistics sprawl: Measuring changes in the relative distribution from warehouses to logistics businesses and the general population

The logistics sprawl – warehousing and distribution centers relocating farther away from central urban areas to the urban periphery – has been widely examined in multiple global trade gateways. The spatial shifts have been attributed to the systematic and geographic restructuring of goods production and distribution systems at the global scale. More recently, growing online shopping sales and demand for instant delivery have put tremendous pressure on online retail businesses to locate order fulfillment centers in urban areas with direct access to the consumer markets. Has the trend of sprawling warehouses reversed? Have warehouses been relocating closer to consumer demand? In this research, I use a relative distribution measure to quantify the spatial distribution of warehouses relative to the logistics sector, the goods movement sector, and the general population over time. The main data source is ZIP Code Business Patterns from 2003 to 2016 with the study area of the 64 largest US metropolitan areas. In 2016, warehouses were most closely distributed relative to logistics sectors (38.6 km), followed by goods movement sectors (41.2 km), and population (43.5 km). From 2003 to 2016, the distance between warehouses and related businesses has increased, but the extent varies with respect to metropolitan and warehouse size. The trend of increasing relative distance from warehouses to related businesses stopped since the economic recession in 2008. Relative distribution measures are significantly correlated with internal ground shipment ton-kilometers but only in large trade gateways.     

Evaluation of the spatial pattern of logistics facilities using urban logistics land-use and traffic simulator

Despite the growing research interests on the spatial restructuring of logistics facilities that occurred in many cities around the world, the relationship between the spatial pattern of logistics land use and the level of externalities is far from being elucidated. We use the Urban Logistics Land-use and Traffic Simulator (ULLTRA-SIM), developed for the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, to evaluate the level of externalities that accompany different spatial distribution patterns of logistics facilities. The ULLTRA-SIM takes a novel approach to analyze the urban freight impacts through the simulations of logistics facility locations, urban logistics chains, and truck flow. The results indicate that, while the moderate concentration and deconcentration of logistics facilities do not significantly affect the level of externalities, scarcity of logistics facilities in or near the high demand locations exacerbates negative externalities. Also, the results of the simulations underscore the need for rigorous analysis in order to reduce negative externalities through logistics land use policies.     

A study on travelers' transport mode choice behavior using the mixed logit model: A case study of the Seoul-Jeju route

This study is to analyze passengers' choice of the mode of transportation when air transportation is in competition with high speed rail (HSR). The Seoul-Jeju route analyzed as an empirical case study, in which the construction of an undersea tunnel to connect Seoul and Jeju city by HSR has been considered. The study also included two new variables, ‘safety of transportation’ and ‘availability of duty free shopping’ in addition to traditional transport choice variables such as travel time, travel costs and frequency of service to reflect special characteristics of the market. As data gathering tools, SP techniques and mixed logit model, for analytical methodology, were utilized. The authors found that the goodness of fit of the models was improved with new variables. The models also showed that the characteristics of business passengers and leisure passengers in choosing the mode of transportation were different. Business passengers were apt to choose a safety secured mode of transportation regardless of fare while leisure passengers preferred to use duty free shops more than business passengers.     

Short sea and deep sea shipping markets in France

This paper examines the physical and organizational characteristics of maritime consignments sent from France by comparing those sent by deep sea shipping (DSS) with those sent by short sea shipping (SSS). It employs a very detailed survey that identifies individual shipments, and contains information on routing, mode and organization. The results confirm that the majority of deep sea consignments pass through the major ports, but the SSS market is shown to be more diverse. A link between the size of the hinterland and the type of trade is identified. Finally, the paper shows the importance of logistic service providers in SSS chains.     

Airline choice and tourism growth in the Azores

This study examines the effect of airline choice on tourism growth in the Azores. The results reveal that tourism numbers increased sharply as more alternative choices emerged to visitors after the entrance of low-cost carriers due to airline liberalization. Moreover, different airline types attract different kinds of visitors, contributing to tourism diversification. In particular, low-cost airline tourists are younger than those who travel in full-service airlines or charter flights. They are also more likely to buy a last-minute ticket and to come from Iberian and French markets. Charter flights, however, are important choices for those traveling to the Azores from more distant markets such as Sweden and Denmark.