Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures

Empirical explorations of the growth and aggregate productivity impacts of infrastructure have been characterized by ambiguous (countervailing signs) results with little robustness. This paper, utilizing panel data for South African manufacturing over the 1970–2000 period, and a range of 19 infrastructure measures, explores the question of infrastructure endogeneity in output equations. The paper develops an instrumentation strategy generalizable to other contexts. Controlling for the possibility of endogeneity in the infrastructure measures renders the impact of infrastructure capital not only positive, but of economically meaningful magnitudes.     

Underemployment in South Africa

With the introduction of the Quarterly Labour Force Survey since 2008, a newly derived variable, namely underemployed, has become available. It is derived according to the ‘time-related’ approach (i.e. those who are employed, but would like to work longer hours and are available to work longer hours in the near future). However, underemployment could also be derived according to the ‘inadequate employment situations’ approach (e.g. under-utilisation of skills, over-qualification). Because underemployment is a seriously under-researched topic in South Africa, this article investigates the extent of underemployment according to these two definitions, before examining whether the characteristics of the two groups of underemployed are significantly different.     

An investigation into food-away-from-home consumption in South Africa

Food policy that ignores food-away-from-home (FAFH) in a developing country like South Africa will be misleading given changes in demand for food over time. This study contributes to our understanding of the factors that influence the demand for FAFH in South Africa. Using panel data from the Income and Expenditure Survey, this study analyses the effects of income and socio-demographic variables on FAFH expenditure using a double-hurdle model. The results show that small-sized households headed by younger white females/males and living in an urban settlement are most likely to purchase FAFH while male-headed households spend more than female-headed households. Furthermore, income of the household head is an important determinant of household FAFH expenditures. The income elasticity of expenditure on FAFH is inelastic and a normal good. The small size of the participation elasticities means that growth in the FAFH sector will be driven by households with existing expenditure.     

‘Fit to play’: Labour market behaviour in a cohort of public-sector antiretroviral treatment patients

Given the rapid scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART), it is necessary to explore the impact of ART on labour force participation, employment and labour productivity. This article investigates labour market outcomes in a prospective cohort of public-sector ART clients in the Free State province of South Africa. Empirical results suggest that labour force participation increased markedly as the proportion of those too ill to work declined, becoming indistinguishable from participation rates in the general population. Unemployment rates, however, remain above those reported for the general population. ART and its health-related benefits therefore translate into increases in labour force participation, but not employment. Employment status at HIV diagnosis strongly predicts absorption in the labour force. Public-sector ART clients should be referred to vocational rehabilitation and occupational therapy programmes, and to welfare-to-work programmes, and the unskilled to adult education and training and further education and training programmes.     

Multidimensional poverty in South Africa in 2001–16

This study uses the Census 2001 and 2011 as well as Community Survey 2007 and 2016 data to derive a multidimensional poverty index in South Africa for each year, before assessing the changes in non-money-metric, multidimensional poverty over time. Both the incidence and intensity of multidimensional poverty decreased continuously, and these declines were more rapid than that of money-metric poverty. The decrease in multidimensional poverty between 2001 and 2016 was most rapid for female Africans residing in rural areas in Eastern Cape and KwaZulu–Natal provinces. Multidimensional poverty was most serious in numerous district councils in these two provinces, despite the fact that poverty decline was also most rapid in these district councils. The results of the multidimensional poverty index decomposition indicated that Africans contributed more than 95% to multidimensional poverty, while unemployment, years of schooling and disability were the three indicators contributing most to poverty.     

The South African–United States sovereign bond spread and its association with macroeconomic fundamentals

The yield spread of South African to United States 10-year government bonds over the last 5 years has increased substantially to levels approaching those last seen during the mid-1980s. This paper examines the association between the spread and macroeconomic fundamentals over the 1960–2019 sample period, under the GARCH and GARCH-M class of estimators. We find that higher South African economic growth, lower inflation, public and private debt, as well as rand–dollar appreciation are all associated with a statistically significantly lower South African–United States yield spread. The strongest impact is associated with the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Mean spread levels do not appear to be influenced by yield volatility. Finally, while there is no evidence of sign bias in the impact of shocks on yield volatility (negative shock impacts are no different than positive), there is evidence of size bias for both positive and negative shocks: larger shocks have a larger impact on volatility than small, regardless of their sign. Collectively, and even ignoring the impact of private sector leveraging, South Africa’s performance in these macroeconomic fundamentals is associated with an increase in the South African–United States yield spread of 363 basis points (since 2012).     

Why Do Property‐Liability Insurers Destroy Liquidity? Evidence from South Africa

This paper examines liquidity creation behaviour in the property‐liability insurance market in South Africa. Using annual data on 76 insurers from 2007 to 2014, the paper employs the three‐stage approach to estimate liquidity creation. The results suggest that property‐liability insurers are characterised by liquidity destruction by transforming liquid assets in cash and investable securities into illiquid reserves liabilities. The findings also indicate that the R1.32 billion in liquid assets were transformed into illiquid reserves liabilities in 2014, an increase from the R700 million liquidity de‐created in 2007. The increases were mainly driven by large insurers which accounted for about 70% liquidity de‐created. The results of panel regression analysis provide evidence in support of the “risk‐absorption” hypothesis which argues that high levels of capital increases liquidity creation. In addition, size, leverage and reinsurance were also identified as the firm‐level factors that explain liquidity creation. The policy implications of the findings are discussed.