Trading House Price Risk with Existing Futures Contracts

This paper examines the use of futures contracts to hedge residential real estate price risk. We examine whether existing futures contacts can effectively be used to offset volatility in national house prices. Little evidence of any simple systematic relation between national prices and futures prices is found. Since house prices are not easily replicated with a portfolio of existing futures contracts, a further implication is that the Chicago Mercantile’s introduction of a financial asset whose value reflects house prices will help complete the market. Nevertheless, the success of the CME’s new derivative contracts may be limited in light of state and regional house price correlations.

Risk management of real estate: The case of real estate swaps

Real estate swaps are a recent financial innovation based upon the principle of comparative advantage. A real estate swap is a useful tool for real estate risk management and for participating in real estate investment without the high costs associated with real estate. Potential economic benefits and costs associated with real estate swaps are considered and real estate swaps are compared to alternative tools for real estate risk management. The expected utility and effectiveness of risk management with a swap in a multiperiod framework are analyzed. The analysis finds that the subject property's return and its risk characteristics (as reflected in its correlation with interest rate and property index returns) delimit the risk management potential of a given swap position. Optimal swap positions are shown for various regions and property types based on historical return series, from the period between 1983 and 1992, and the parameters of the dynamic model developed.     

Do Savings Associations Have a Special Commitment to Housing?

In this paper, we investigate whether elimination of the savings association charter might reduce lending to nontraditional mortgage borrowers. We present a theoretical model of lender portfolio choice, in which nontraditional lenders have some market power and traditional lenders are price takers in the mortgage market. The comparative statics indicate differences between nontraditional and traditional lenders in terms of their asset allocation responses to changes in borrower income and house prices. Empirical tests indicate the absence of such differences between savings associations and commercial banks, suggesting that elimination of the savings association charter would not impair lending to nontraditional mortgage borrowers.     

The Equity Premium: Consistent with GDP Growth and Portfolio Insurance

We find that the long‐term equity premium is consistent with both GDP growth and portfolio insurance. We use a supply‐side growth model and demonstrate that the arithmetic average stock market return and the returns on corporate assets and debt depend on GDP per capita growth. The implied equity premium matches the U.S. historical average over 1926–2001. Separately, we find that the equity premium tracks the value of a put option on the S&P 500. Our theory predicts a smaller equity premium in the future, assuming that the recent regime shifts in dividend policies, interest rates, and tax rates are permanent.     

Optimal Insurance Under Random Auditing

We provide a characterization of an optimal insurance contract (coverage schedule and audit policy) when the monitoring procedure is random. When the policyholder exhibits constant absolute risk aversion, the optimal contract involves a positive indemnity payment with a deductible when the magnitude of damages exceeds a threshold. In such a case, marginal damages are fully covered if the claim is verified. Otherwise, there is an additional deductible that disappears when the damages become infinitely large. Under decreasing absolute risk aversion, providing a positive indemnity payment for small claims with a nonmonotonic coverage schedule may be optimal.     

长寿风险对寿险和年金产品定价的对冲效应研究

作为老龄社会的重要风险,长寿风险专题研究是近20年来公共养老金领域、保险公司关注的热点。长寿风险引发的保险公司寿险产品定价高估和年金产品定价低估之间存在潜在的自然对冲效应。为了量化这种对冲效应的长期影响,本文基于构建的同时涵盖低龄、高龄和超高龄在内的整个生命跨度的全年龄人口动态死亡率模型,采用对冲弹性量化终身寿险与终身年金、两全保险与定期年金、递延寿险与递延年金三类保障型寿险产品和养老型年金产品对冲效应的动态演变,并通过敏感性分析扩展探讨利率变化对对冲效应的长期影响。研究发现,从单位寿险和年金产品组合的净对冲效应来看,由于保险公司的产品定价区分了性别差异,使得女性的对冲效应更明显,因而女性对应的产品组合中的长寿风险对保险公司的影响更不显著。作为系统性风险,利率风险和长寿风险也存在对冲,利率上升能抵消或对冲长寿风险的影响,低利率下长寿风险更显著。     

财产保险公司对地震保险的承保管控和风险控制分析

本文通过收集全球地震灾害发生的数据,归纳出全球地震的变化趋势和规律。在此基础上概述了我国地震活动规律和地震带分布特征,并引用稳定分布函数分析了地震损失具有右偏、厚尾、长尾特性,解释了我国地震保险供需矛盾的原因。最后描述了我国财产保险公司对地震风险的控制思路,提出了由政府干预解决市场失灵问题的具体建议。     

房地产金融风险影响宏观经济安全的相关研究——兼论我国房地产金融潜在风险及政策建议

房地产金融风险的发生会引发全社会投资与消费的大幅减少,进而影响宏观经济,对经济增长和金融稳定产生负面影响。当前我国房地产金融风险主要为:土地储备贷款存在的隐性风险、房地产开发贷款风险、个人住房消费贷款违约风险以及房地产金融的宏观信用风险。为防范房地产金融风险,维护我国宏观经济安全,本文认为中国要借鉴房地产市场成熟国家经验,建立完善的房地产金融风险预警系统;建立健全房地产金融市场和监管体系,引导金融机构不断提升房地产信贷风险管理能力;完善房地产宏观政策体系,保持房地产市场供需结构平衡,引导房地产市场持续健康稳定发展。     

中国房地产业发展趋势和商业银行的长期策略

目前房地产已成为中国经济的支柱产业,同时资金流量分析表明房地产又不应成为主导产业。长期来看,城市化、人口增长和存量需求释放等刚性和扩张需求,将推动中国房地产行业持续发展,短期内价格暴涨和长时间涨速过快是不合理的。中国房地产市场短期内出现严重衰退的可能性不大,银行面对的风险仍然可控,但仍需注意政策调整的风险。商业银行仍应将房地产市场作为重要业务领域,有重点、有区别拓展;适度控制房地产贷款增速、总量及占比;建立对房地产贷款的全过程监管制度;探索房地产贷款以外的金融创新形式。     

创新运用保险技术分解社会风险探究

处于经济社会转型期的当代中国所面临的社会风险比以往任何时候更具复杂性和威胁性,社会风险管理面临严重挑战。通过阐述国际社会风险管理的新理念和趋势、分析现实中国的主要社会风险及其风险源,提出创新运用保险技术分解社会风险的必要性、可行性和现实路径及方法。重点提出通过商业保险对社会风险源的定性、定量分析,转化部分社会风险成可保风险,达到相应社会风险的被分解和预控。     

美国保险公司破产研究及对我国的启示

保险公司的破产会给保单持有人、股东以及保险保障基金等造成很大的损失。鉴于国内相关案例和数据的缺乏,本文主要参考美国的文献和数据,分析了1978年～2009年美国保险公司破产案例,研究发现虽然保险公司破产的触发事件主要是损失准备金不足、非充分定价、公司业务的快速增长、子公司破产和投资失败等,但导致保险公司破产的根本原因却...     

非寿险承保风险引发系统性风险的复杂网络分析

本文基于我国财险业2009～2018年数据,用复杂网络理论模型构建了财险业承保业务网络,并模拟了承保风险传染过程,分析了承保风险对财险业系统性风险的影响轨迹及程度.研究发现,我国财险业承保业务网络的联系越来越密切,承保风险的增加会引发传染风险,进而导致爆发系统性风险.但当前我国财险业整体稳定,只有发生1600亿元及以上...     

Rural Homeowners’ Willingness to Buy Flood Insurance

Houses are the primary asset for Chinese rural families. However, dramatically increasing frequency and severity of floods have caused significant loss in rural houses recently, and there is generally no insurance available. In this article, we investigate the rural residents’ willingness to buy insurance according to a national survey. The results show that there exists a strong need for flood insurance in rural China, and the influencing factors in the insurance demand include the recent frequency of floods, income, and past experience with lack of flood insurance. Policy suggestions for flood insurance are provided for the insurance industry and Chinese government.     

Background Uncertainty and the Demand for Insurance Against Insurable Risks

Theory suggests that people facing higher uninsurable background risk buy more insurance against other risks that are insurable. This proposition is supported by Italian cross-sectional data. It is shown that the probability of purchasing casualty insurance increases with earnings uncertainty. This finding is consistent with consumer preferences being characterized by decreasing absolute prudence.     

Long-Term Care Insurance and Life Insurance Demand

This article investigates the interaction between life insurance and long-term care insurance markets on the demand side. In the model utility depends on both consumption and bequest, and utility from consumption is contingent on the state of health. While the demand for life insurance increases both with decreasing income and with a rising degree of altruism, the influences of these two parameters on the demand for long-term care insurance are ambiguous. If the utility shock arising from disability declines, both insurance demands will rise.     

Labor Income Risk and Car Insurance in the UK

Microeconomic theory shows that only under certain conditions higher background risk increases the propensity to insure against independent marketable risks. We provide empirical evidence for the case of labor income risk and car insurance in the UK. The main result is that households with higher labor income risk spend more on insurance. This finding is consistent with microeconomic theory if the utility function is of the HARA type. Moreover, we find that households spend more on insurance if they participate in the stock market.     

Insurance demand in the presence of loss-dependent background risk

We analyze insurance demand when insurable losses come with an uninsurable zero-mean background risk that increases in the loss size. If the individual is risk vulnerable, loss-dependent background risk triggers a precautionary insurance motive and increases optimal insurance demand. Prudence alone is sufficient for insurance demand to increase in two cases: the case of fair insurance and the case where the smallest possible loss exceeds a certain threshold value (referred to as the large loss case). We derive conditions under which insurance demand increases or decreases in initial wealth. In the large loss case, prudence determines whether changes in the background risk lead to more insurance demand. We generalize this result to arbitrary loss distributions and find conditions based on decreasing third-degree Ross risk aversion, Arrow–Pratt risk aversion, and Arrow–Pratt temperance.     

我国房地产业蕴含的金融风险及相关政策调整

本文对当前我国房地产业发展的总体情况和存在的突出矛盾进行了考察,并在此基础上,总结了上个世纪80年代以来发生的典型房地产泡沫危机,分析了房地产泡沫危机和金融危机的关系,以及目前我国房地产业潜在的风险．提出了促进我国房地产业健康发展的政策建议．自去年开始,我国政府针对房地产市场过热的问题实行了从紧的宏观调控措施．这次宏观调控的效果显现时间与美国由次贷问题引发的金融危机相重合。在国内经济政策调整和国际经济环境恶化这样一个大背景下．正确判断我国房地产市场发展情况,分析房地产市场与金融运行之间的相互影响,对于稳步实施房地产业政策调整。防范房地产泡沫与金融风险,促进房地产业、金融和经济的健康发展具有重要意义。     

财务杠杆在房地产业的应用

我国房地产企业是典型的资金密集型和高资产负债率企业。鉴于房地产业在国民经济中的重要地位,其上市公司的财务健康与否也必然是备受市场各利益主体的关注。目前,由于多轮宏观调控政策的影响,财务风险隐患己成为国内很多房地产公司生存发展所迫切需要解决的问题。因此房地产企业在快速增长过程中,如何合理利用财务杠杆增加企业收益,同时保持适宜的负债率以降低资本成本,减少财务风险确保企业的可持续增长为众多房地产企业所面临的重要问题。     

保险资金不动产投资模式研究

本文首先对国际上保险资金进行不动产直接投资和间接投资的情况进行了概述,然后对保险资金不动产投资模式进行了归纳总结和案例分析。在此基础上,对我国目前保险资金不动产投资政策与模式进行了探讨。最后,针对我国保险资金不动产投资业务的发展提出了相关建议。