A model of advertising with application to the German automobile industry

This paper develops a dynamic duopolistic model of advertising and price competition. Advertising accumulates a stock of goodwill which enters directly into the demand functions and both the cooperative and predatory effects of advertising are considered. It is shown that firms invest more in advertising the higher the degree of cooperativeness of advertising and some comparative static results are provided. In the second, empirical part of the article, estimations of the demand equations are presented using data from the German automobile industry. The main conclusion drawn is that advertising plays an important role in this market and has a predatory nature.     

A challenge of integrating technology foresight and assessment in industrial strategy development and policymaking

Appropriate demand articulation of emerging technologies to social needs are vital to the economic and social productivity, and it is essential to grasp the future trends of social needs and technology advancement to promote the strategic technology policy. Japan embarked on technology foresight in the early 1970s and has since been conducting a regular Delphi survey approximately every 5 years. To explore a new intelligent methodology for integrating technological seeds and social needs by articulating future demands, this paper reviews the following two cases: the Delphi-scenario writing (DSW) method, which is applied in 1977 for the home/office small facsimile, and the method of general assessment applied in 1972 for informationalization, which focused on the rapidly advancing information society, with a matrix scoring and policy-simulation method. Those new approaches were proved to be a powerful methodology to integrate the technology forecasting and assessment for comprehensive understanding of the emerging technologies and their social impacts in the form of integrated technology road mapping, which supports the integrated strategic planning methodology for enhancing the future innovation system.     

A multiregional model of China and its application

China's rapid economic transformation since 1979 has been accompanied by a stark regional disparity with the coastal provinces integrating swiftly into the world markets while inland regions lagging far behind in the industrialisation process. The growth imbalance has placed China's provinces into different stages of development and called for different policy responses to deal with different challenges they are facing. Similarly, a national policy initiated by the central government is likely to be interpreted and implemented in different ways when local governments take into consideration the different conditions in their localities. Therefore, it would be extremely valuable for policy makers and researchers to have an analytical tool that is capable of studying interactions among the provincial economies and the dynamic relationship between the centre and local governments. The multiregional econometric model of China presented in this paper is the first attempt to provide such a tool. The pioneering model consists of over 1200 equations, covering 30 provinces of China that are linked by inter-regional flows of goods and services. The model is used to study the impact of fiscal recentralisation in the 1990s. The counterfactual simulation results show that when China's central government diverted tax revenue from provincial governments, it achieved higher budgetary revenue for the central government but at the expense of lower overall budgetary revenue and slower economic growth.     

A non-expected utility model and its application in practical auctions

ABSTRACT

This article presents a non-expected utility decision model which is nonlinear in the winning probabilities. The model not only explicitly expresses bidders’ attitudes to risk, but also addresses their preference over the bidding criteria. To demonstrate how to apply the model in the practical auction design, the first- and second-price auctions with both commission rate and reserve price are examined, respectively. For nonrisk-neutral bidders, the equilibrium bidding strategies are characterized, in which the commission rate has a significant influence on the bidding strategy through the critical valuation. However, the existence of the optimal commission rate is uncertain, but once it exists, it depends on the information rent of the highest or second highest order valuation in terms of the inverse hazard rate. With risk-aversion bidders, the only difference to the optimal reserve price is a constant between the first- and second-price auctions. The revenue comparisons show that the classical Revenue Equivalence Theorem fails in practical auctions with the commission rate. This article extends the application of the decision-making model in the auction design in theory and provides some guidance for the auction house and the seller to make their decisions in reality.     

A theory of competitive industry dynamics with innovation and imitation

Empirical evidence on industry life-cycle reveals a pattern in which innovation rates remain fairly stable or are perhaps even higher at early stages, while patenting increases sharply as the industry matures. This increase in patenting in later stages is accompanied by net exit and lower rates of output growth and price decline. In this paper, we develop a dynamic model of a competitive industry with innovation and imitation that is consistent with these stylized facts. We derive an equilibrium growth path, along which leading firms invest in increasing the stock of technological knowledge and choose not to prevent imitation by other firms as long as the industry remains relatively small. As the industry expands including new entry, the leaders' optimal amount of investment gradually declines. We show that under some rather general conditions, there would exist a scale of the industry where innovating firms would choose to start preventing free imitation, bringing further expansion of the industry through new entry to a halt and causing net exit.     

Market penetration of new products in segmented populations: A system dynamics simulation with fuzzy sets

The application of system dynamics methodology to the study of market penetration (diffusion) of new products offers considerable flexibility. The differential equations representing total (cumulative) sales need not be that restrictive as in those instances where solely mathematical tools are applied for their solutions. This paper first develops a mathematical formulation of “dynamic diffusion phenomena,” where the target population is not assumed to be constant in time. Besides incorporating the “marketing efforts” of the producer as an explicit variable, the model also gives due importance to the population characteristics affecting the diffusion phenomena. This is achieved by representing all variables and parameters in the differential equations as higher dimensional arrays. Then some basic properties of “fuzzy sets” are exploited to assign numerical values to the parameters. At the end, the problem is cast in a system dynamics setup for its solution. A computer solution with the help of a DYNAMO compiler for a hypothetical case is added to demonstrate the applicability of the ideas developed.     

广东省纺织业技术创新模式研究

介绍了广东省纺织业技术引进、消化吸收、创新的现状,根据广东纺织企业几个典范,重点剖析各企业的创新模式特征,提出了技术创新模式的应用范围及趋势,对促进我国纺织业技术创新发展有着积极意义和借鉴价值。     

Creating marketing strategies in new technology markets: A study of the expert system industry

Technological innovation is widely recognized as a major factor influencing competitiveness. This is particularly true i n turbulent and dynamic IT markets. Consequently, the effective strategic management of technological innovation by companies is one route to securing their survival and growth. The focus of the research presented is the evolution of marketing strategies by innovators facing diverse competitive challenges in the expert system market. The study examined the role of strategic marketing i n the commercial exploitation of technology and how this role changes, especially after market launch. What was interesting urm the extent to which suppliers were not only designing new technologies but also creating business applications for the new technology. The acquisition of market know-how to devise end-,user applications was a vital ingredient i n securing a competitive advantage.     

Creating marketing strategies in new technology markets: A study of the expert system industry

Technological innovation is widely recognized as a major factor influencing competitiveness. This is particularly true i n turbulent and dynamic IT markets. Consequently, the effective strategic management of technological innovation by companies is one route to securing their survival and growth. The focus of the research presented is the evolution of marketing strategies by innovators facing diverse competitive challenges in the expert system market. The study examined the role of strategic marketing i n the commercial exploitation of technology and how this role changes, especially after market launch. What was interesting urm the extent to which suppliers were not only designing new technologies but also creating business applications for the new technology. The acquisition of market know-how to devise end-,user applications was a vital ingredient i n securing a competitive advantage.     

Incorporating Delphi results in system dynamics models: A case of Indian tea industry

The results of a Delphi study on the future of the Indian tea industry are presented. Most of the information obtained for the study helps in formulating and validating a system dynamics model. The model also considers the occurrence of new events as visualized by the panelists. It is shown, however, that the policies recommended by the panelists yield poor industry behavior when Delphi-predicted new events operate in the environment. This may be due to lack of comprehension of the complexity of interaction between policies proposed and new events visualized by the panelists. On the basis of this investigation, it is proposed that Delphi and system dynamics studies should complement each other in arriving at viable policy decisions.     

The trade-off between innovation and defense industrial policy: A simulation model analysis of the Norwegian defense industry

The paper investigates the trade-off between innovation and defense industrial policy. It presents an agent-based simulation model calibrated for the Norwegian defense industry that compares different policy scenarios and examines the effects of a pending EU market liberalization process. The paper points to two main results. (1) It finds that a pure scenario where national authorities focus on, and provide support exclusively for, either a) international competitiveness or b) national defense and security objectives, is more Pareto efficient than a corresponding mixed strategy where policy makers simultaneously pursue both international competitiveness and defense and security objectives. (2) Under the conditions of the new EU liberalization regime, it finds that a stronger and more visible trade-off will emerge between international competitiveness and national defense and security objectives. Policy makers will have to choose which to prioritize, and set a clear agenda focusing on one of the two objectives.     

Dealing with the dynamics of technology roadmapping implementation: A case study

Nowadays, companies are facing many challenges. The product life cycle is getting shorter while the complexity and the demand for product customization are increasing. Technology Roadmapping (TRM) has been widely used as a strategic management tool to help organizations in effectively identifying potential products or services for the future, determining proper technology alternatives, and mapping them with resource allocation plans. With the completion of TRM implementation, any organization can be assured that its required technologies and infrastructures will be ready when needed. Implementing TRM as a part of the ongoing strategic/business planning process is challenging because it may affect the organizational work process, structure, and culture. Therefore, an organization needs to understand how the changing roles and responsibilities of key players involved in the TRM process match with the dynamics of TRM implementation in each stage. This paper illustrates the dynamics of TRM implementation and presents a case study to demonstrate how one of the leading building product manufacturers in the ASEAN region went through the process.     

Welfare analysis in a two-stage inverse demand model: an application to harvest changes in the Chesapeake Bay

Like many agricultural commodities, fish and shellfish are highly perishable and producers cannot easily adjust supply in the short run to respond to changes in demand. In these cases it is more appropriate to conduct welfare analysis using inverse demand models that take quantities as given and allow prices to adjust to clear the market. One challenge faced by economists conducting demand analysis is how to limit the number of commodities in the analysis while accounting for the relevant substitutability and complementarity among goods. A common approach in direct demand modeling is to assume weak separability of the utility function and apply a multi-stage budgeting approach. This approach has not, however, been applied to an inverse demand system or the associated welfare analysis. This paper develops a two-stage inverse demand model and derives the total quantity flexibilities which describe how market clearing prices respond to supply changes in other commodity groups. The model provides the means to estimate consumer welfare impacts of an increase in finfish and shellfish harvest from the Chesapeake Bay while recognizing that harvests from other regions are potential substitutes. Comparing the two-stage results with single-stage analysis of the same data shows that ignoring differentiation of harvests from different regions, or the availability of substitutes not affected by a supply shock, can bias welfare estimates.     

Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: Handling the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change

Today many companies in many industries put a lot of efforts into monitoring and investigating emerging drivers of change in their business environment, particularly in relation to new technologies and events in the social, economic, political and ecological landscapes which surround their industry. So far scholars in the literature on foresight and future studies focused on the techniques and practices for analysing the “state” uncertainty about the likely path of evolution of emerging drivers of change. Anyway, less attention was devoted to the “effect” uncertainty about the impact of drivers of change on the competitive position of the firm and to the “response” uncertainty about how to take advantage of these drivers. These are the main issues we take into account, through a field research on firms that, notwithstanding they were able to properly assess the likely evolution (state uncertainty) of relevant drivers of change in their industry, either were successful or dramatically failed in handling the effect and response uncertainty of these drivers. Moreover, we carried out multiple case studies of some large companies that have established an organizational unit dedicated to strategic foresight. Overall, the results of our research may contribute to improve the effectiveness of strategic foresight and to increase its value added to the planning process of corporate firms, while providing helpful insight to public organizations that promote foresight exercises for enhancing the competitiveness of local firms.     

A switching regression model with different change-points for individual coefficients and its application to the energy demand equations for Japan

In this paper, we set up a switching regression model in which individual coefficients are allowed to shift at different change-points. We also apply it to the energy demand equations and examine structural change in the demands for total fuel oil and for light oil and kerosene at the second oil crisis. It is shown that assuming the different change-points for individual coefficients yields more Plausible results than assuming the same change-point for all coefficients.We thank Professor S. Katayama for his help in another related project.     

A new economic and political order in the perspective of system dynamics

A formalized approach to the consideration of a new economic and political order is proposed, introducing a newly defined planetary equity functional. It is suggested that world system structure and operation become decision variables in such a proposed equity-oriented policy to be implemented through a continuous active dialog involving all actor-states.     

日本企业IT应用面面观

90年代以来迅速发展的IT革命,在人类历史上第一次形成了全球性的信息通讯网络,这不仅有力地促进了信息化社会的发展,也给企业经营战略带来了很大的影响。日本企业在IT应用方面亦有了很大的进展并形成了自己的特点,在增加信息化投资、实现企业信息化的同时,从新产品开发、零部件     

中美农村金融体系的比较及启示

金融是现代经济的核心,党和国家越来越深刻认识到农村金融对于农业经济发展的重要性.本文首先对当前我国农村金融体系的构成及缺陷进行了归纳与总结;然后对美国农村金融体系从政策性农村金融体系、农村合作金融制度、农业保险3个方面进行了概述;最后,在对中美农村金融体系比较的基础上,得出了加大立法力度、完善组织体系、加强农业保险等3条完善我国农村金融体系的启示.