A patent-based cross impact analysis for quantitative estimation of technological impact: The case of information and communication technology

The increasing syntheses and interactions between various technologies increase the usefulness of cross impact analysis (CIA) as a method for forecasting and analyzing them. Conventional CIA depends on an expert's qualitative judgment or intuition and thus it is difficult to evaluate quantitatively the impact of one technology on another. In this study, we employ patent analysis in CIA to examine such impacts between technologies based on multiple patent classifications. Patent information is used for facilitating quantitative and systematic approach in CIA. The distinctive feature and main contribution of the proposed approach is the overcoming of the limitations of conventional CIA, by employing conditional probabilities based on the patent information. The classification of patents, particularly the multiple classifications, is used to evaluate the relationships between technologies. As an illustration, a patent-based CIA with information and communication technologies (ICTs) was conducted. Firstly, the patent-based cross impact among ICTs was calculated. Secondly, the technology pairs were classified based on the cross impact score between ICTs. Thirdly, a cross impact network was constructed to identify the complex relation among ICTs. Finally, the changes in cross impact scores between technologies over time were analyzed. The results of this research are expected to help practitioners to forecast future trends and to develop better R&D strategies.     

Impact of information and communication technologies on fertilizer and pesticide use efficiency of China's grain production

Based on a panel data from National Rural Fixed Point Survey (NRFP), this study explored the effects of information and communication technologies (ICTs) on the fertilizer and pesticide use efficiency of China's grain production and the mechanisms using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and two-way fixed-effects model with two-stage least square (2SLS) estimation. The results show that the average fertilizer use efficiency (FE), pesticide use efficiency (PE) and comprehensive fertilizer and pesticide use efficiency (CFPE) of grain production were 0.286, 0.404, and 0.364 respectively during 2003–2011. It should be noted that the CFPE decreased by 48.39% during 2003–2011 and showed a descending trend in all regions. ICTs had significant positive effects on FE, PE, and CPFE which could be explained by providing farmers more sustainable knowledge and hence shifting farming practices from overusing fertilizer towards using farmyard manure as a substitute. ICTs' positive effects were more pronounced for farmers with higher-level education and in central region. Additionally, ICTs had significant spillover effects, extending from users to nonusers within the villages. These results suggest that ICTs could be considered as an effective way to increase the fertilizer and pesticide use efficiency and promote the sustainable development of agriculture in China.     

Myths of information: the cultural impact of new information technologies

This paper discusses the beliefs that circulate in contemporary culture about new communication technologies. Considered together these beliefs express two mythological narratives about the meaning of the information revolution. (1) that new information technologies will empower individuals and transform both work and leisure; and (2) that such technologies can solve the problems of democracy in a post-industrial age. These myths are neither true nor false; rather they are the way that we make sense of our moment of history and a projection of the hopes we collectively project on to new technologies. In discussing these myths, this paper seeks to identify the signal cultural implications of new communication technologies.     

Mind the Gap: Information and Communication Technologies, Knowledge Activities and Innovation in the Pharmaceutical Industry

The paper explores the specific challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry regarding the exploitation of information and communication technologies (ICTs) in the context of developing new frameworks supporting knowledge activity and the wider innovation process. The paper seeks to provide a framework to view these changes but also highlights gaps in our current conceptualization of the role of ICTs in facilitating and effecting change within the pharmaceutical industry.     

Mind the Gap: Information and Communication Technologies,Knowledge Activities and Innovation in the Pharmaceutical Industry

The paper explores the specific challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry regarding the exploitation of information and communication technologies (ICTs) in the context of developing new frameworks supporting knowledge activity and the wider innovation process. The paper seeks to provide a framework to view these changes but also highlights gaps in our current conceptualization of the role of ICTs in facilitating and effecting change within the pharmaceutical industry.     

An introduction to rural and agricultural development in the digital age

This special issue contributes to the development economics literature by highlighting the role of information communication and technologies (ICTs) in supporting rural and agricultural development. It is comprised of nine papers. Key findings from this special issue include: (1) internet use increases rural consumption diversity and agricultural productivity; (2) smartphone use empowers rural women in household decision-making and off-farm work participation; (3) smartphone-based agricultural extension services boost rural income growth; (4) a lack of ICT infrastructure and inadequate skills to use digital technologies are two key factors that lead to digital poverty traps for smallholder rural farmers; (5) ICT adoption increases the probability of rural households' access to credit and empowers rural women and farm households in relatively less developed regions to access credit; (6) digital financial inclusion reduces farmers' vulnerability to poverty; and (7) e-commerce adoption increases both sales prices and marketing costs, but the magnitude of increasing the former is higher than the magnitude of increasing the latter, which finally contributes to a higher gross return. This special issue also proposes practical instruments and implications for advancing the application of ICTs in rural areas to accelerate rural and agricultural development in the digital age.     

The role of new ICTs in the sustainable development of industrial cluster： a case study of Yangxunqiao textile cluster

The wide application of new information and communication technologies （ICTs） has been argued to be critical in local economic development, while the application of new ICTs will affect the development of industrial cluster, especially those small and medium-sized enterprises （SMEs）. This paper examines Yangxunqiao textile cluster located in Zhejiang Province as a case study to focus on the role of ICTs in the sustainable development. We argue ICTs application in firms boost flexible and customized production approach, improve e-commerce market channel and raise supply chain management. We also pay special attention to the spatial implication of ICTs adoption in industrial cluster, and suggest that application of ICTs tend to lead to further clustering of SMEs in the location with mature production chain. Our analysis shows that new ICTs are a facilitator in the sustainable development of the industrial cluster.     

THE REVOLUTION WITHIN: ICT AND THE SHIFTING KNOWLEDGE BASE OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST COMPANIES

This empirical article analyses the importance of information and communications technologies (ICT) in the technological diversification trend among the world's largest manufacturing firms during the 1980s and 1990s. The objective of the research is twofold: first, to emphasise the emerging differences among technologies when companies from different industries patent outside their traditional technological capabilities; secondly, to investigate whether the tendency among large companies from all industries to patent in ICT is distinctive when compared with the tendency to patent in other technologies. We find that technological diversification in large companies has clearly occurred in ICTs. Non-ICT specialist industries increasingly develop, rather than just utilise, the cluster of ICT-related technologies. We conclude that the development of corporate capabilities in the key technologies of the emerging ICT paradigm is more widespread than previously emphasised in the literature. One implication of this observation is that technological diversification and the information revolution may be related phenomena.     

The determinants of investment in information and communication technologies

In this paper, we assess the determinants of information and communication technology (ICT) investment at the macro-level, for a panel of 10 advanced countries, in the period 1992–2005. We investigate the idea that, since ICTs are general purpose technologies, the decision to invest in these technologies is strongly affected by the general business environment in which the investment takes place. The empirical results are consistent with this idea: facilitating factors such as changes in market regulation, amount of human capital, expenditure on R&D, and the share of the dynamic services sector in the economy, positively influence investment in ICT.     

ICTs and time-span in technical efficiency gains. A stochastic frontier approach over a panel of Italian manufacturing firms

In this paper, in contrast to much of the existing literature dealing with the impact of information and communication technologies (ICTs) on labour productivity, we assess the relationship between ICT investments and technical efficiency (TE) using a stochastic frontier approach. We utilize a large panel dataset of Italian manufacturing firms over the period 1995–2006 and confirm the findings of the previous work on ICT and productivity. In addition, we test to what extent ICT investments influence the gap between firms and the production frontier; that is, how adoption of ICT influences the narrowing of the said gap. We also test the duration of the effects of adopting ICT on technical efficiency. Finally, our results indicate that ICT returns on TE are influenced by certain firm characteristics, most of which idiosyncratic, such as management practices, labour organization, research and development.     

本信息通信技术产业的规划及发展趋势

随着科技的发展,信息通信技术已经深入到了各个行业,对人们的生活、社会生产以及整个产业结构都产生了重大的影响。近年来,日本政府出台了一系列信息通信技术产业的战略规划,其未来重点发展领域为：云计算及大数据处理技术,智能电网、智能交通,低成本、低能耗、小型化的超级计算机,智能机器人及柔性制造系统,数字化智能家电以及汽车产业等。日本政府将加强信息通信技术与本国制造业以及其他传统优势领域的融合,在推动重点产业发展的同时,主要考量的是利用信息通信技术进一步提高国民生活的质量。     

Computerization in France: An Evaluation Based on Individual Company Data

In this article we evaluate the contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to the growth of value added during the past 15 years in France. Following North American studies, we use traditional growth accounting methods to assess the relative size of two types of contribution: on the one hand the effect of the use of information technologies (IT) on growth due to the accumulation of IT capital taking place within all industries; on the other hand the contribution of the production of ICT to growth due to the strong total factor productivity (TFP) gains achieved in the industries producing ICT. We use individual company data aggregated by industry, which provide us with a measure of the firm's computer stock and makes a detailed investigation possible.     

一场穿戴式技术革命正在北美地区兴起

从2012年下半年开始，一场穿戴式技术革命正在北美地区悄然兴起，极大地改变了人们对信息技术产品的认知。从穿戴式技术产品入手，对穿戴式技术这一新兴技术进行分析并归纳其技术特征，可以看出：通过穿戴在手腕、脖子、耳朵、眼睛和身上的微型智能设备，穿戴式技术延伸了人类的感知功能，实现了“数字化自身”；当这一技术与人的健康和医疗相结合，将会促使医疗、健身、通讯和其他许多领域产生革命性的变化。     

中国农村信息化发展态势及其区域差异

新的信息技术(ICTs)社会扩散的不均等性成为地区信息化发展的障碍之一,这种不均等不仅体现在城乡之间,广大农村地区的差异亦非常显著。作者从农村信息基础设施发展、农村网民发展、涉农网站建设等角度出发,通过宏观与中观区域视角剖析了农村信息化的时空演变特征。研究发现,固定电话、电视机与移动电话普及率的东、中、西差异不明显,而家用电脑普及率的区域差异最大,说明家用电脑拥有率是造成农村信息化区域差异的主要因素。农村网民主要集中在东部地区,且增长速度高于中西部地区,农村网民的东西差异会继续增大。从中观省域层面上,农村信息基础设施拥有情况与居民纯收入呈明显正相关,并且家用电脑拥有水平与收入相关性最高。     

A rigorous approach to business services offshoring and North–North trade

Advances in information and communication technologies (ICTs) have gained economy-wide importance and raised concerns that even within North–North trade neither services nor high-skilled labour may be sheltered from international competition. Rather, both may be increasingly susceptible to offshoring. We present a novel theoretical framework for analysing offshoring with a focus on skilled labour in managing value-added chains. Thoroughly modelling demand and supply allows to explicitly track cause and effects. Accordingly, effects of business service offshoring are completely different and more diverse than those of material offshoring, with the effects inter alia depending on whether triggered by trade integration or ICT.     

Creative capital,information and communication technologies,and economic growth in smart cities

ABSTRACT

We study aspects of economic growth in a stylized smart city with two distinct features. First, the modeled inhabitants of this city are smart because they possess skills. Using the language of Richard Florida, these inhabitants comprise the city’s creative class and hence they possess creative capital. Second, the city is smart because it uses information and communication technologies (ICTs) and we model one specific kind of ICT use. In this setting, we first derive expressions for three growth related metrics. Second, we use these metrics to show that the economy of smart city A converges to a balanced growth path (BGP). Third, we compute the growth rate of output per effective creative capital unit on this BGP. Fourth, we study how heterogeneity in initial conditions affects outcomes on the BGP by introducing a second smart city B into the analysis. At time t?=?0 two key savings rates in city A are twice as large as in city B. We compute the ratio of the BGP value of income per effective creative capital unit in city A to its value in city B. Finally, we compute the ratio of the BGP value of skills per effective creative capital unit in city A to its value in city B.     

Back to the future. Is industry 4.0 a new tecno-organizational paradigm? Implications for Latin American countries

ABSTRACT

The objective of this article is to establish a dialogue between the recent ‘Industry 4.0’ (I4.0) literature and evolutionary neo-Schumpeterean studies about techno-organizational paradigms. In that direction, we wonder whether I4.0 constitutes a new paradigm, as it is assumed by the first group of literature, or it represents – until the moment – an intensification of key features of the information and communication technology (ICT) paradigm, following the second group of studies. Some questions are raised about the implications of I4.0 for developing countries (DEC), afterwards. Specifically, we reflect on the possibilities of these countries to identify and take advantage of new windows of opportunity, opened by the development and diffusion of these technologies. In this regard, the review of recent Latin American experience raises strong concerns regarding I4.0 as a new source of intra- and international heterogeneity, linked to the severe difficulties these countries have in appropriating these technologies in the form of productivity gains and quasi-rents. It seems that this is partially derived from weak technological, organizational, and connectivity capabilities paths of accumulation between institutions and actors.     

Inefficient predation and political transitions

This paper presents a theory of endogenous economic institutions in non-democracies, where political accountability is enforced through the threat of revolution. We consider a dynamic game between an elite ruling class and a disenfranchised working class, in which workers have imperfect information about the economy's productive possibilities. We characterize the conditions under which (i) the elite implement an inefficient rent-creating economic institution at the risk of provoking a revolution based on institutional grievances, (ii) information shocks can catalyze revolutionary movements that may be contagious among similar countries, and (iii) democratic transitions can be consolidated following revolutionary liberalizations.     

Technology variation vs. R&D uncertainty: What matters most for energy patent success?

R&D is an uncertain activity with highly skewed outcomes. Nonetheless, most recent empirical studies and modeling estimates of the potential of technological change focus on the average returns to research and development (R&D) for a composite technology and contain little or no information about the distribution of returns to R&D – which could be important for capturing the range of costs associated with climate change mitigation policies – by individual technologies. Through an empirical study of patent citation data, this paper adds to the literature on the outcomes of energy R&D by focusing on the behavior of the most successful innovations for six energy technologies, allowing us to determine whether uncertainty or differences in technologies matter most for success. We highlight two key results. First, we compare the results from an aggregate analysis of six energy technologies to technology-by-technology results. Our results show that existing work that assumes diminishing returns but assumes one generic technology is too simplistic and misses important differences between more successful and less successful technologies. Second, we use quantile regression techniques to learn more about patents that have a high positive error term in our regressions – that is, patents that receive many more citations than predicted based on observable characteristics. We find that differences across technologies, rather than differences across quantiles within technologies, are more important. The value of successful technologies persists longer than those of less successful technologies, providing evidence that success is the culmination of several advances building upon one another, rather than resulting from one single breakthrough. Diminishing returns to research activities appear most problematic during rapid increases of research investment, such as experienced by solar energy in the 1970s.     

The digital economy: Where do we stand?

The rapid transition towards a “digital economy” was enabled by a converging set of innovations. Computing saw the development of the semiconductor transistor, integrated circuit, personal computers (PCs), operating systems, and graphical interfaces. The physical layer of telecommunication was enabled via the emergence of optical fiber and new wireless communication technologies, while networking saw the development of the Internet (essentially packet switching) and the World Wide Web. These advances combined to realize a series of new applications of information and communications technologies (ICTs) such as business software, e-mail, and e-commerce. However, progress seriously stumbled with the collapse of the dot com bubble, which among other things revealed a huge amount of misdirected investment that could have been used more productively. The question of the day is thus how to realize new “killer apps” to stimulate a new round of growth. The use of cell phones for communicating text, pictures, and video is a rapidly expanding area, but it seems unlikely that these applications will have a macroeconomic impact. Entertainment is a key industry whose fortunes are entwined with ICTs. Indeed, the application of ICT to innovating entertainment products is an important driver for the continued growth of the industry. Distribution of music and video via the Web could significantly stimulate demand but also raises the thorny question of how to protect intellectual property rights (IPR) of content providers. Another possible killer apps are interactive video-on-demand and telecalls/teleconferencing. The latter would, among other things, stimulate adoption of telework. The current Internet is capable of handing neither one-way transmissions of high-quality video nor interactive video-on-demand. There are bottlenecks both for the “last mile” connection from Internet service provider (ISP) to the home but also the “first miles” from originating server to ISP. The effective first miles bandwidth has not increased along with improvements in equipment, essentially because demand increases with capacity and thus traffic jams on the net continue. Digital subscriber line (DSL) technologies over telephone wires, and possibly wireless networks, will play important roles in getting over the last mile hurdle. Upgrading the first miles will probably require new networking protocols beyond TCP/IP that support multimedia and also changes in the economic model of information transfer via the Net.