The Delphi technique: Past, present, and future prospects — Introduction to the special issue

The Delphi technique has been around for over half a century, so now seems a proper time to consider its past, present and future. This introduction characterises the papers in this special Delphi issue, which include both conceptual and empirical works. It summarises the main lessons that have been learned from these for the conduct of the technique, and provides a call for more and better empirical studies in the future.     

The struggle to survive in the R&D sector: Implications for innovation and growth

By allowing for investment activities by research and development (R&D) firms to prevent product obsolescence, we show that if legal patent protection is too strong, a higher R&D subsidy rate delivers insufficient investments for survival in the R&D sector, depressing innovation and growth in the long run.     

Backcasting images of the future city—Time and space for sustainable development in Stockholm

This paper presents and discusses a backcasting study for Stockholm 2050. The focus is on developing images of a future where Stockholm citizens have sustainable energy use—here defined as a 60% reduction per capita over a 50-year period. The perspective is that of households, so all energy is allocated to individuals’ activities rather than being discussed from a sector perspective. Six images of the future are developed by combining a space dimension (three versions of changes in urban structure) and a time dimension (two versions of people's life tempo). Added to this is technological development, so that the images of the future illustrate how combinations of planning, behavioural change and technological development could lead to sustainable energy use.     

Demographic change and long‐term growth in China: Past developments and the future challenge of aging

This paper explores the influence of demographic changes, particularly the sharp decline in fertility and the evolution of the population age structure, on economic development in China. A general equilibrium overlapping generations model with endogenous decisions on fertility, educational investment, and factor accumulation is employed for our analysis. The family support provided by children to the elderly, which is a component of traditional culture in Chinese society, is also considered. We find that technological changes matter most for growth. Demographic changes, on average, account for approximately 4% of the growth in China, while the effect is negative in the pre‐1980 period. With an extension to include population aging, we find that aging is not necessarily adverse to growth. This finding reflects the fact that a longer life expectancy requires more savings and makes educational investment in children more attractive, which accelerates physical capital and human capital accumulation. However, if the social norm of family support for aging parents is strict, aging will significantly increase the children's burden and crowd out physical and human capital accumulation.     

The future of the future: Strategic foresight in Latin America

With few differences in timing, future studies in Latin America were initiated with a linear conception of reality. Orchestrated with techniques such as the Delphi, future studies were supported by mathematical principles of probability. Several countries have surpassed this stage while moving into strategic foresight. Strategic foresight analyzes the future as a multiple reality. In other words, it means thinking differently and not reading reality in a linear manner. It means accepting that there is not one future but several futures and that one question could have more than one answer.This change has demanded a shift in mentality. The presence of the disciplines in universities is of vital importance. For example, the Technological Institute of Monterrey (Mexico) and the Universidad Externado de Colombia (Bogota) offer foresight and strategy programs at the graduate level.This article describes how different individuals, groups, agencies and institutions in Latin America have emerged thanks to the support provided by the science and technology governmental agencies of each country. The author provides examples from different countries including Colombia, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Currently, strategic foresight is slowly gaining recognition and acceptance as a compass for productive sectors and as a generator of competitiveness.However, despite the contributions of strategic foresight, Latin American countries, with the exception of some of the above-mentioned countries, have struggled to take off into the future. The role of strategic foresight can become the driving force behind this awakening, if the challenge of linking global trends with local contextualization through scenarios is accepted.     

Earthnet: The university of the future

Herein is described the phoenix rising from the ashes of the dying university.     

Sir Edward Coke and the struggle for a new constitutional order

Modern struggles to form constitutional orders based on liberal principles are fraught with risk. There may be little in the way of private reward for those who lead the struggle. Such things as free markets, property rights protection amd freedom to contract are public goods. Ideology is apparently important. At the same time, the successful leader must be equipped with a number of scarce skills, including knowledge of markets and how they operate. Lessons learned from England's 17th century constitutional revolution tell us that constitutional entrepreneurs do emerge. Sir Edward Coke, England's most eminent lawyer of that period, was such a person. Over his lifetime, Coke led an intellectual and political struggle based on his belief that fundamental law came from the people, that kings and parliament were subservient to Common Law and the Magna Charta. These were to be the basis of England's constitution. Coke's legal decisions and arguments contain far more than mere assertion. They reflect impressive understanding of the market process, monopoly restrictions, free trade, and the fundamental force of freedom to contract. His leadership, fueled by an ideological commitment, was coupled with extraordinary intellect. The author expresses appreciation for helpful comments and criticisms to William Breit, Robert Ekelund, Roger Meiners, Robert Staaft, Robert Tollison, Richard Wagner and an anonymous referee of this journal.     

Class struggle and economic fluctuations: VAR analysis of the post-war US economy

Building on Marx’s insights in Chapter 25, Volume I of Capital, an augmented version of the cyclical profit squeeze (CPS) theory offers a plausible explanation of macroeconomic fluctuations under capitalism. The pattern of dynamic interactions that emerges from a 3-variable (profit share, unemployment rate and nonresidential fixed investment) vector autoregression estimated with quarterly data for the postwar U.S. economy is consistent with the CPS theory for the regulated (1949Q4--1975Q1) as well as for the neoliberal periods (starting in 1980 or in 1985). Hence, the CPS mechanism seems to be in operation even under neoliberalism.     

Endogenous trade policy: Political struggle in the growth process

This paper develops a dynamic theory that accounts for the evolution of trade policy, underlying internal class conflicts, and output growth performance. Analysis of political responses to the distributional effects of international trade reveals that economies with a comparative advantage in manufacturing may reach a developed stage through the ebb and flow of protectionism. This nonmonotonic evolution of trade policy is consistent with the historical experience of Western Europe over the last few centuries.     

阿根廷的货币危机:过去和未来

阿根廷的经济形势引起了人们对阿根廷是否会发生货币危机的关注。通过介绍70年代以来阿根廷历史上的货币危机以及分析阿根廷目前的经济状况可知，阿根廷经济中最严重的问题就是大量的公共债务和经济衰退，而造成这两个问题的深层次原因就是阿根廷目前的货币制度。大量的公共债务和经济衰退使阿根廷发生货币危机只是时间问题，一旦市场失去信心，货币危机就会随时爆发。     

Multibody System Transfer Matrix Method: The Past, the Present and the Future

The multibody system transfer matrix method (MSTMM), a novel dynamics approach developed during the past three decades, has several advantages compared to conventional dynamics methods. Some of these advantages include avoiding global dynamics equations with a system inertia matrix, utilizing low-order matrices independent of system degree of freedom, high computational speed, and simplicity of computer implementation. MSTMM has been widely used in computer modeling, simulations, and performance evaluation of approximately 150 different complex mechanical systems. In this paper, the following aspects regarding MSTMM are reviewed: basic theory, algorithms, simulation and design software, and applications. Future research directions and generalization to more applications in various fields of science, technology, and engineering are discussed.     

The Past as Nation: Three Dimensions of Armenian Identity

This article argues that the key to understanding nationhood is its relationship with the past - 'its' history. It accepts that nations are essentially modern constructs, based on subjective and objective characteristics, but this is not how members of a nation usually define their collective. What is crucial in the answer to the question 'when is the nation?' is not a given date (which is never fixed and regularly shifts based on need), but how and why the 'when' is defined. Hence, what needs to be analysed are the dynamics of formulating identity and the interpretation of history for contemporary purposes. Using the case of the Armenians, the article demonstrates that the question 'when is the nation?' is answered in terms of three broad time frames: fourth century AD, 2000 BC or earlier and 1915. Each approach looks at the past to define the nation, and, based on its world view, provides an appropriate answer. These differences are not just historiographical debates among specialists, but widely held views affecting current Armenian national identity.     

Past Futures: On the Conceptual History of Eugenics—a Social Technology of the Past

Based on an introduction to the conceptual history of Reinhart Koselleck, this paper traces the historical development of 'eugenics' as a concept. This concept has been immensely influential in shaping the debate on the regulation of human genetic and reproductive technologies. At the beginning of the 20th century eugenics was cast as a social technology associated with strong, almost utopian technological expectations for the future. By the end of the century it was by contrast seen as a dangerous threat, a potential repetition of the past strongly connected to notions of compulsion, ethnic cleansing and crime. In between these two points lies a historical development, traced here through the development of the concept of eugenics as rendered in Scandinavian encyclopaedias throughout the 20th century. In this process a larger and more complex semantic framework emerges illustrating the shifting relationship between experience and expectations.     

逝者如斯:萨特和存在主义的今昔

罗素说:“三种单纯却又极强的激情支配了我的一生:对爱情的渴望,对知识的追求,对人类苦难感到无法忍受的怜悯之情。”这三种内在的生命激情同样也是萨特的人生动力。一个时代的人格印记规定了思想的品格和高度,令人遗憾的是,这种人格和激情于今已绝无仅有了。     

竞争未来—企业生存与发展的法宝

一、竞争未来的主要思想和特征 竞争未来与竞争当前有着本质的区别。竞争当前是在有结构的领域内市场份额的竞争、产品和服务的竞争;竞争未来则是在无结构的领域内商机份额的竞争、企业之间和联盟之间的竞争。因此,企业要想兴旺发达,开创未来,就必须更新观念,敢于创新,建立新的战略观。 竞争未来战略观强调,企业不仅要在现有产业范围内竞争,而且还要在塑造未来产业架构方面竞争;不仅要把企业看成各种业务组合,还要把它看成是各种专长的组合;竞争不仅仅是发生在各个企业之间,而且还常常发生在企业联盟内部或