Combining stated and revealed choice research to simulate the neighbor effect: The case of hybrid-electric vehicles

According to intuition and theories of diffusion, consumer preferences develop along with technological change. However, most economic models designed for policy simulation unrealistically assume static preferences. To improve the behavioral realism of an energy–economy policy model, this study investigates the “neighbor effect,” where a new technology becomes more desirable as its adoption becomes more widespread in the market. We measure this effect as a change in aggregated willingness to pay under different levels of technology penetration. Focusing on hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), an online survey experiment collected stated preference (SP) data from 535 Canadian and 408 Californian vehicle owners under different hypothetical market conditions.Revealed preference (RP) data was collected from the same respondents by eliciting the year, make and model of recent vehicle purchases from regions with different degrees of HEV popularity: Canada with 0.17% new market share, and California with 3.0% new market share. We compare choice models estimated from RP data only with three joint SP–RP estimation techniques, each assigning a different weight to the influence of SP and RP data in coefficient estimates. Statistically, models allowing more RP influence outperform SP influenced models. However, results suggest that because the RP data in this study is afflicted by multicollinearity, techniques that allow more SP influence in the beta estimates while maintaining RP data for calibrating vehicle class constraints produce more realistic estimates of willingness to pay. Furthermore, SP influenced coefficient estimates also translate to more realistic behavioral parameters for CIMS, allowing more sensitivity to policy simulations.     

Battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles: Expert views about prospects for advancement

In this paper we present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for advances in battery technology for electric and hybrid vehicles. We find disagreement among the experts on a wide range of topics, including the need for government funding, the probability of getting batteries with Lithium Metal anodes to work, and the probability of building safe Lithium-ion batteries. Averaging across experts we find that U.S. government expenditures of $150 M/year lead to a 66% chance of achieving a battery that costs less than $200/kWh, and a 20% chance for a cost of $90/kWh or less. Reducing the cost of batteries from a baseline of $384 to $200 could lead to a savings in the cost of reducing greenhouse gases of about $100 billion in 2050.     

On the combination of exponential smoothing and diffusion forecasts: An application to broadband diffusion in the OECD area

The innovation diffusion literature has established that the spread of a successful innovation over time typically follows a sigmoid curve. Therefore, the forecasting in this area has been monopolized by the use of well known aggregate diffusion models. Time series forecasting has been surprisingly neglected, as it provides mainly accurate short term forecasts. In this work, a method of exponential smoothing, the Holt's damped trend with a modification, is applied in recent broadband diffusion data of two large regions after the reach of the inflection point. As validated with holdback sample data ranging from 6 up to 30 months, the key for successful forecasting is the use of the estimated saturation level calculated from a diffusion model, in order to specify the appropriate trend. The results indicate improved predictions compared to two popular diffusion models, the Gompertz and the Linear Logistic model. The paper concludes with the application of the proposed method in a 48-month forecasting horizon, as well as the suggestions for further research.     

Combining ecological and recreational aspects in national park management: A choice experiment application

Increasing pressure to diversify development of national parks emphasizes the need for new and relevant information for park management decisions. In this paper, we use choice experiment to value different tradeoffs that evolved in park development scenarios. Specifically, we examine which kind of development profiles are worth considering and which paths not to follow. We focus on biodiversity and recreational services provided by Oulanka National Park in Finland, which represents a popular recreation site attracting a large number of visitors. The increase of biodiversity was the most highly valued feature by the respondent national park visitors. Thus, our results show that the protection of biodiversity and recreational and tourism use of national parks can cause conflicting welfare effects if managed in inappropriate ways. Increasing the number of visitors, expanding present resting places, constructing new resting places and an intense increase in information boards, especially if combined with shrinking biodiversity, are welfare reducing managerial actions in national parks.     

Incorporating stakeholders' perspectives into models of new technology diffusion: The case of fuel-cell vehicles

The literature on the modeling of diffusion of technologies typically uses historical data to calibrate a model. For cases where data on the diffusion of comparable technologies are not available and where high multi-sector stakes are involved, models that use more specific information may be useful. The potential transition to alternative transportation vehicle technologies and fuels, like fuel-cell vehicles and hydrogen, would be an example of such cases. We propose an integration of theoretical frameworks on the diffusion of innovations with data on stakeholders' opinions, to develop estimates of FCVs' market-share evolution. Our estimates of the time scales required for the market, particularly for the initial stages, are longer than those obtained in other studies.     

Launching strategy for electric vehicles: Lessons from China and Taiwan

China has seen explosive growth in the sales of electric bikes since 1998. The boom was triggered by Chinese local governments' efforts to restrict motorcycles in city centers. However, many Chinese cities have started to extend the restriction to electric bikes. Whether China's electric bike economy will continue to develop is highly uncertain. The experience of China's electric bike boom suggests that limiting the fossil-fueled alternatives could be an effective policy tool in fostering the commercialization of electric vehicles. The failure of Taiwan's electric scooter policy, on the other hand, indicates that subsidies alone may not be a sufficient launching strategy. The policy approach of limiting the alternatives deserves serious consideration if policymakers wish to foster electric vehicles.     

Estimation of forest values using choice modeling: An application to Spanish forests

This paper presents a Choice Modeling application of forest goods and services valuation for an afforestation program in the Northeast of Spain. The results from a random parameter logit model reveal that, on average, individuals would annually pay an average of 11.79 euros for the forests to sequester 68,000 tones of CO₂, 0.12 euros for delaying the loss of land productivity for ten years, and 6.33 euros from picnic users for being allowed to picnic in the new forests. On the other hand, individuals would experience a loss in welfare equivalent to − 9.67 euros if four-wheel driving is allowed in the new forests. Finally, being allowed to pick mushrooms in the new forests is valued at an average of 12.82 euros by those who live in rural areas.     

Using solar PV feed-in tariff policy history to inform a sustainable flexible pricing regime to enhance the diffusion of energy storage and electric vehicles

The aim of this paper is to analyses residential solar PV feed-in tariffs (FiT) policy history to inform the development of a sustainable flexible pricing regime to enhance the diffusion of energy storage, electric vehicles, solar PV installations and other distributed resources focusing on the case of ‘solar rich’ Australia. Solar PV has reached price parity at the retail level where the electricity price charged includes both transmission and distribution costs, in addition to the wholesale price. So the economic rationale for paying a FiT premium above market rates to achieve dynamic efficiency is no longer warranted. However, there is justification pay a premium to encourage dynamic innovation in energy storage. Socially, FiTs can be a problem because they can transfer wealth from poorer to richer households. Additionally, new investment in distribution and transmission, driven by peak demand spikes from air conditioners can act as a further transfer. Environmentally, FiTs can also fall short of their full potential to cut emissions if they lack ‘time of use’ price signals that reflect movements in the wholesale price. We suggest a sustainable flexible price regime that can be designed to addresses all three areas of concern: social, environmental and economic. The resultant transmission and distribution investment deferment would meet both environmental and economic objectives. We argue that the time has come to design a sustainable flexible price regime for solar PV that focusses upon allocative efficiency as an explicit goal and to introduce support for other distributed resources including energy storage to encourage dynamic efficiency.     

International diffusion of embodied and disembodied technology: A network analysis approach

This study proposes a quantitative method for investigating the structure of international technology diffusion. By using network analysis, this study defines the structural configuration of each country within the international diffusion network by measuring its degree, closeness, and betweenness centralities. In addition, this study distinguishes between embodied technology diffusion, measured by multilateral trade, and disembodied technology diffusion, measured by patent citations, in individual countries. This study empirically tests a sample data set of international technology diffusion taken from 48 countries. The empirical results show that the structural configuration of countries exhibits similar patterns in both embodied and disembodied diffusion networks. Significant global stratification patterns exist in the capability of national international technology exportation and brokerage advantages. Moreover, this study distinguishes four blocks of countries that play different roles in international technology diffusion: the leading countries provide a source of technological knowledge; an intermediate group diffuses the knowledge acquired from the source; a third group is in the process of initiating the export of technological knowledge; and a final group of countries absorbs technological knowledge without reciprocal exportation. Finally, this study identifies two types of catch-up strategies that newly industrialized or developing countries can use to move up the international technology stratification.     

An analysis of crop choice: Adapting to climate change in South American farms

This paper explores how South American farmers adapt to climate by changing crops. We develop a multinomial logit model of farmer's choice of crops. Estimating the model across 949 farmers in seven countries, we find that both temperature and precipitation affect the crops that South American farmers choose. Farmers choose fruits and vegetables in warmer locations and wheat and potatoes in cooler locations. Farms in wetter locations are more likely to grow rice, fruits, potatoes, and squash and in dryer locations maize and wheat. Global warming will cause South American farmers to switch away from maize, wheat, and potatoes towards squash, fruits and vegetables. Predictions of the impact of climate change on net revenue must reflect not only changes in yields per crop but also crop switching.     

The choice of exchange rate regime: An empirical analysis for transition economies*

We analyze the choice of exchange rate regimes of the 25 transition economies in Europe and the CIS after 1990. The empirical results show that the traditional Optimum Currency Area considerations provide relevant guidance for the regime choices in these countries. Moreover, regime choices are influenced by inflation rates, cumulative inflation differentials, and international reserves sufficiency. That is, macroeconomic stabilization and the ability to commit to exchange rate pegs also play important roles. Large government deficits have ambiguous effects; they increase the likelihood of moving from flexible to intermediate regimes as well as that of moving from fixed to intermediate ones.     

North-South and South-South trade-related technology diffusion: an industry-level analysis of direct and indirect effects

Abstract .  This paper examines one direct and three indirect channels of North-South trade-related technology diffusion. We find that i) the largest impact on TFP in the South is from direct North-South technology diffusion; ii) there are also significant effects from indirect North-South technology diffusion, though their magnitude is smaller than that of the direct one; and iii) the impact of direct North-South technology diffusion on TFP in the South occurs faster than the impact of indirect technology diffusion.     

International technology diffusion and economic growth: Explaining the spillover benefits to developing countries

Technology spillovers offer great opportunities for economic growth to developing countries that do little, if any, R&D activity. This paper explores the extent to which these countries benefit from foreign technology, the diffusion mechanisms involved, and the factors that shape their absorption capabilities. Results based on a non-stationary panel of 55 developing countries indicate that the benefits are quite substantial: a ten-percent increase in foreign R&D stock is translated into more than a two-percent increase in aggregate productivity. Of the diffusion channels considered, imports appear to be more conducive to R&D spillover. In addition, developing countries that enjoy larger benefits tend to exhibit larger stock of human capital, more openness to trade and foreign activities, and stronger institutions. These North–South R&D spillovers, although larger than previously suggested, appear less strong than North–North spillovers, adding to the general literature on economic divergence between developed and developing countries.     

Gales of creative destruction and the opportunistic incumbent: The case of electric vehicles in California

This paper explores the introduction of electric vehicles in response to Californian regulatory pressures as an example of a disruptive technology. The central thesis is that this disruption may open the automobile market to new entrants but only if they collaborate with incumbent automobile manufacturers. This appears to support Schumpeter's argument that large incumbent firms possess innovation advantages over the small entrepreneurial entrant. However, these innovatory advantages lie in the downstream complementary assets required for success in the automobile market.     

An evening at the theatre: using choice experiments to model preferences for theatres and theatrical productions

This article examines people's preferences and demand for live theatre. It investigates the preferences for people attending a regional theatre, Northern Stage in Newcastle, in relation to other live theatres they could attend, and in relation to the attributes of theatrical productions and ticket price. It uses a Stated Preference (SP), discrete choice experiment, to assess people's utility and Willingness To Pay (WTP) for the different attributes of theatrical productions. The model assesses the effect of the attributes of plays on choice; and the impact of Socio-Economic (SE) and demographic variables on choice and demand. Results reveal the heterogeneity of theatregoers’ tastes for different types of plays and ticket prices. The models reveal the significance of ‘reviews’ and ‘Word Of Mouth’ (WOM) opinions on plays, as the most important variables determining choice.     

Technical knowledge and technology diffusion: new issues for US government policy

During the cold war, defence needs drove the technology-related poicies of the US government. Those policies were focused on the genertion of new knowledge as a source of military advantage and a hedge againt uncertainty. The utilization of knowledge, particularly within civilian rather than defence industries, had little prominence until about 1980, when policy-makers began paying somewhat more attention to diffusion. This thrust had two primary components: accelerated 'transfer' of technology from federally funded projects, and efforts, oftern by state governments, to aid small- and medium-sized businesses in tapping best practive know-how. While valuable undertakings, these policies address only two of the many modes of technology diffusion. This article seeks to set those two modes among the broader range, by classifying ways in which technologies diffuse when viewed as knowledge rather than artefact. The classification proceeds along four dimensions: (1) the extent to which the knowledge is formally codified, as opposed to tacit; (2) individual, as opposed to organizational; (3) mobile, as opposed to embedded; (4) openly available, as opposed to proprietary. Public Policy in the US has neglected many of the mechanisms revealed by this sort of analysis. Given that knowledge remains a major if diminishing source of competitive srength for US indsutry, Government will have to develop a broader set of diffusion-oriented policies to complement its traditional emphasis on the generation of new knowledge through R&D.     

An econometric analysis of choice of mortgage design in the United Kingdom

The research seks to better understand the choice of mortgage design by households in the United Kingdom. Family Expenditures Survey data is used to test the various hypotheses on the determinants of the choice between an endowment and a repayment mortgage. A bivariate probit model with sample selection is estimated to detect any likely selectivity bias arising out of tenure choice. The theoretical modelling reflects the behaviour of liquidity constrained households comparing comparative periodic mortgage costs and households concerned with the oppurtunity cost of equity in a property. Actual choices appear to reflect the impact of nominal interest rates, income and cash flow considerations. There is little direct evidence that the choice of mortgage repayment vehicle is motivated by portfolio design. There is some tentative evidence of supply side pressure on endowment mortgage take up.     

Global environmental problems and the strategic choice of technology

Reductions of environmentally harmful emissions are often a public good in a global context. For strategic reasons, countries may adopt a technology with high per unit cost of emission reduction, even if a technology with lower per unit cost is available at no extra cost. They thereby credibly commit themselves to not reducing emission much in the future. In a game of private voluntary provision of emission reduction, this commitment will make other countries increase their emission reductions. Also, in the case where countries cooperate in the future, such commitment gives a country a strategic advantage, because it shifts the disagreement point in a favorable direction.     

Bidding for the unemployed: An application of mechanism design to welfare-to-work programs

This paper applies the theory of mechanism design to welfare-to-work programs. When procuring welfare-to-work projects to employment service providers, governments face the problems of adverse selection (the winning provider is not the most efficient one) and moral hazard (the winning provider shirks in its responsibility to reintegrate unemployed people). We compare the constant-reward second-price auction with the socially optimal mechanism and show that the auction generates social welfare that is close to the optimal mechanism, while requiring less information and weaker commitment.