Revolution in three-quarter time: Lessons from the diffusion of advanced manufacturing technologies

This paper reviews the rates of diffusions in advanced industrialized countries of a selection of advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs) including computer-aided design, robotics and flexible manufacturing systems. It examines the trends developing in the use of these technologies and evidence that different 'models' of practice can be observed between Japan, the USA and Europe. The paper discusses the principal factors influencing the diffusion of AMT's and the range of benefits perceived by the firms through their use. Despite their rapid diffusion, there is concern that the expected benefits from invstment in AMTs is rarely achieved. The paper suggests that the problem of achieving full benefits from these technologies is related to the extent of integration of technologies achieved, which requires a significant degree of organizational learning and development by firms.     

Democratic revolutions as institutional innovation diffusion: Rapid adoption and survival of democracy

Recent ‘democratic revolutions’ in Islamic countries call for a re-consideration of transitions to and from democracy. Transitions to democracy have often been considered the outcome of socio-economic modernization and therefore slow and incremental processes. But as a recent study has made clear, in the last century, transitions to democracy have mainly occurred through rapid leaps rather than slow and incremental steps. Here, we therefore apply an innovation and systems perspective and consider transitions to democracy as processes of institutional, and therefore systemic, innovation adoption. We show that transitions to democracy starting before 1900 lasted for an average of 50 years and a median of 56 years, while transitions originating later took an average of 4.6 years and a median of 1.7 years. However, our results indicate that the survival time of democratic regimes is longer in cases where the transition periods have also been longer, suggesting that patience paid in previous democratizations. We identify a critical ‘consolidation-preparing’ transition period of 12 years. Our results also show that in cases where the transitions have not been made directly from autocracy to democracy, there are no main institutional paths towards democracy. Instead, democracy seems reachable from a variety of directions. This is in line with the analogy of diffusion of innovations at the nation systems level, for which assumptions are that potential adopter systems may vary in susceptibility over time. The adoption of the institutions of democracy therefore corresponds to the adoption of a new political communications standard for a nation, in this case the innovation of involving in principle all adult citizens on an equal basis.     

The implications of diffusion models for accelerating the diffusion of innovation

This paper explores the implications of a simple, yet robust model of innovation diffusion for developing insight into the problem of controlling the rate of new product diffusion. Some basic, theoretical results are developed using a simple model. Those results are shown to relate to optimal policies developed from a more complex model of innovation diffusion, developed for the Department of Energy's photovoltaic program.     

A note on the diffusion of innovation

The paper deals with the process of substitution between technologies in a framework of increasing returns to scale. The approach stresses the interaction between capacity expansion and market demand as explanations of the diffusion of technologies into their niches. The demand and supply sides of the diffusion process are therefore brought together to determine simultaneously patterns of output and prices.It analyzes the dynamics of the substitution path, where a logistic diffusion process for the new technology is assumed, and determines the substitution curve between the old technology and the new one.     

Trustworthiness as a Moral Determinant of Economic Activity: Lessons from the Classics

This paper reviews the way that social norms and ethical values in general, and trustworthiness in particular, is perceived to affect the behavior of economic agents in view of the work of Adam Smith, Nassau William Senior and John Stuart Mill. Classical Political economists held that economic actions are context-dependent and thus constantly under the influence of social norms and values. It is further suggested here that Classical Economists had established that trustworthiness acts as a general ethical precondition for the efficient behaviour of the markets and an important asset of the national social capital.     

Trustworthiness as a Moral Determinant of Economic Activity: Lessons from the Classics

This paper reviews the way that social norms and ethical values in general, and trustworthiness in particular, is perceived to affect the behavior of economic agents in view of the work of Adam Smith, Nassau William Senior and John Stuart Mill. Classical Political economists held that economic actions are context-dependent and thus constantly under the influence of social norms and values. It is further suggested here that Classical Economists had established that trustworthiness acts as a general ethical precondition for the efficient behaviour of the markets and an important asset of the national social capital.     

民营企业家能力的动态变化分析

民营企业的发展历程，是企业家能力不断提高、能力结构动态变化的过程。本文在分析民营企业不同发展阶段企业家所起作用的基础上，总结了民营企业家能力结构的动态变化，提出了创新能力和决策能力是当前民营企业家的关键性能力，并指出企业家提高创新能力和决策能力的途径和方法。     

Competition enhancing regulation and diffusion of innovation: the case of broadband networks

Regulating former telecommunications monopolies has often been legally and technically complex. Among other options, incumbent operators were mandated to share, sell or split their infrastructure thus encouraging market entry. Given the importance of broadband technologies, competitive access has become a policy priority. We use data from 167 broadband markets over a period of 11 years. Firm and intra-platform competition on the incumbent’s legacy network (Digital Subscriber Line) accelerate adoption of broadband, whereas competition over different access technologies does not. The duration of the different regulatory effects shows that simpler network changes have a long-lasting yet delayed effect compared to technically demanding ones.     

货币政策方略：来自金融危机的教训

直至2007年8月．货币经济学理论和实证研究上的进展已经使经济学家和政策制定者认定当前存在着一门明晰的“货币政策科学”。中央银行就货币政策方略的绝大部分要素达成了一致,同时货币政策被认为在OECD国家取得了巨大成功：后者不仅保持着低通膨,而且通胀波动率也很低。此外,这些国家的产出波动率也下降了,而自20世纪80年代初以来的时期更被冠以“大缓和（Great Moderation）”的称号。货币经济学家和中央银行家都自我感觉相当良好。     

Investigation of the effect of secondary market on the diffusion of innovation

In the high-tech product market, the number of hungry adopters, a new type of early adopters who buy new products and sell them soon in the on- or off-line secondary market to seek for the other new products, has been increasing due to the short product life cycle of high-tech products and the low transaction cost on the Internet. This new phenomenon means that it is inappropriate to consider customers only in the primary market as total adopters in innovation diffusion modeling, since purchasers in the secondary market also have a word-of-mouth effect on the remaining non-adopters. To explain this new phenomenon, we modify the basic Bass diffusion model by incorporating the effect of the secondary market and conduct an empirical analysis. As a result, we conclude that the basic Bass model is likely to overestimate sales volume and tends to forecast lagged peak time when there is an effect from the secondary market. This means that applying a diffusion model to high-tech products without considering the secondary market effect would provide an inaccurate market forecast.     

Exploratory analysis of the impact of information dynamics on innovation diffusion

Understanding the dynamic nature of innovation diffusion processes, and mechanisms underlying these dynamics is crucial, since such an understanding is potentially very important in designing effective innovation support policies and developing better diffusion forecasts. The role of information diffusion in conditioning the diffusion dynamics of an innovation is the locus of this study. In order to investigate this, a simulation model that distinguishes between the real attributes of the innovation and their perceived levels by the user groups has been developed. The model makes it possible to separately trace the diffusion dynamics of innovation and the information about an innovation. Additionally, the formulation of the model enables the message broadcasted via word-of-mouth to change in nature from positive to negative, or vice versa. This generic model is used in an exploratory way, which is discussed as a novel approach for conducting a simulation-based analysis. Such an exploration covers a wide range of plausible diffusion behaviors, and aims to demonstrate the extent to which information imperfections and dynamics may influence the diffusion process. During experiments it is observed that information imperfections as well as the pace of learning processes may yield significant changes in the diffusion patterns. These changes may be in the form of altering the basic characteristics of the well-known S-shaped diffusion curve, as well as stopping the diffusion at much lower levels than full adoption. The analysis presented in the article shows that exploratory analysis is a promising way to utilize simulation models for developing general insights about dynamics processes.     

Beyond national and technological styles of innovation diffusion: a dynamic perspective on cases from the energy and transport sectors

This article argues that styles of innovation diffusion dynamics depend on both national and niche-specific factors and that their respective influence changes during the innovation diffusion process. Based on a review of approaches, dealing on the one hand with differences in national innovation and technology systems and on the other with process of niche formation and development, a theoretical synthesis and pattern of analysis is suggested for interpreting and comparing empirical findings from two different technology examples. The analysis of combined heat and power (CHP) in Germany, UK and the Netherlands, and of electric vehicles in Germany, Sweden and France allows us to identify different styles of innovation diffusion dynamics. These styles are determined by the relative importance of national and niche-specific factors in different phases of the process of technological change. Support in lent to the hypothesis that a style which combines impulses for innovation at both structural and niche is particularly conducive to radical change.     

Market potential dynamics in innovation diffusion: Modelling the synergy between two driving forces

The presence of a slowdown in new product life cycles has recently received notable attention from many innovation diffusion scholars, who have tried to explain and model it on a dual-market hypothesis (early market-main market). In this paper we propose an alternative explanation for the slowdown pattern, a dual-effect hypothesis, based on a recent co-evolutionary model, where diffusion results from the synergy between two driving forces: communication and adoption. An analysis of the synergistic interaction between communication and adoption, based on the likelihood ratio order or on a weak stochastic order, can inform us of which of the two had a driving role in early diffusion. We test the model on the sales data of two pharmaceutical drugs presenting a slowdown in their life cycle and observe that this is identified almost perfectly by the model in both cases. Contrary to the general expectation, according to which communication should precede adoption, our findings show that adoptions may be the main driver in early life cycle; this may be related to the drug's specific nature.     

Identification of effective opinion leaders in the diffusion of technological innovation: A social network approach

Opinion leaders are the people in a social network who have the greatest influence on other people's acknowledgment or adoption of products/services in the diffusion process of technological innovation. In this research, we investigate which opinion leader is the best marketing choice in terms of diffusion speed and maximum cumulative number of adopters, using a social network approach and threshold model. On the basis of the simulation result, we find that opinion leaders with high sociality are the best ones for fast diffusion, whereas those with high distance centrality are the best ones for the maximum cumulative number of adopters. Moreover, we conclude that the characteristics of effective opinion leaders selected as initial adopters could vary depending on the characteristics of the social network and type of innovation. Finally, we find that opinion leaders affect the diffusion process only when the percentage of initial adopters reaches a critical mass.     

Price regulation of drugs: Lessons from Germany

This paper purports to explain the pricing policy of pharmaceutical companies in Germany prior and after the introduction of reference prices (RP) in 1989. First, the threat of such regulation may have kept prices finite despite a completely insured market. Next, the pricing policies of both the producer of an innovative drug and of a competing generic under RP are predicted. These predictions are then confronted with actual pricing policy for three products in the guise of case studies. Finally, the impact of modified copayment rules on pricing decisions is analyzed.The authors would like to thank Dr Michael Wiegand (Bonn) for valuable information and two anonymous referees for helpful criticisms.     

The patterns of induced diffusion: Evidence from the international diffusion of wind energy

Recent years have seen growing academic interest in the concept of induced diffusion as efforts to address concerns about energy security and climate change have intensified. Research on induced diffusion explores whether policy tools or interventions can incentivise the diffusion of innovations. This body of literature has explored the effectiveness and efficiency of various policy interventions and as such has been mainly concerned with the determinants of diffusion. This paper is, by way of contrast, concerned with the patterns of diffusion when diffusion is induced. Drawing on the Bass and Davies models of innovation diffusion we develop a number of propositions that suggest that the patterns of diffusion are different when policy plays a role in the diffusion process. These propositions are then econometrically tested in the context of the international diffusion of wind energy in 25 OECD countries. We find that, as predicted, without effective and strong policy interventions, countries will have conventional logistic diffusion with very similar speeds of diffusion. However, as expected the patterns of diffusion take on a different functional form (Bass curve) when there is a strong policy inducement. We conclude by discussing the implications and limitations of these results and suggesting avenues for further research.     

Homogeneity masquerading as variety: the case of horizontal innovation models

The literature on ‘horizontal innovation’ claimsto analyse cases where unbounded endogenous growth comes froman increasing variety of intermediate goods. The present papercontends that a good sample of representative models in thisliterature share two essential assumptions regarding productiontechnology, and that these assumptions together amount to assumingthe homogeneity of various intermediate goods. In these models,there is no variety of intermediate goods to increase owingto R&D activities; what increases is a mass of a singlehomogeneous intermediate good.     

Study of population heterogeneity in innovation diffusion model: Estimation based on simulated annealing

Parameter variability randomness in diffusion (PVRD) models based on random differential equations have recently been developed to study stochastic evolution of adopters. Analysis of such models is found to generate multimodal life cycle patterns (or intervening slumps) besides the conventional unimodal pattern. Application of these models to real data sets necessitate estimation of parameters of the model. Nonlinear least squares estimation problem is formulated to deal with the minimization of high-dimensional cost function. Using the simulated annealing (SA) framework, effectiveness of the estimation approach and the fitting algorithm is demonstrated in terms of “fit statistics.” An important finding from empirical studies reveal that even in unimodal life cycle patterns, parameters of innovation diffusion process are found to possess considerable variability. This finding amply demonstrates the presence of heterogeneity on account of population variability.     

空间利用的变革：北京的经历

Specific changes in land use can, and often do, occur when any social economic system moves from one form to another. When traditional societies transit from traditional land uses to philosophically determined land uses, as in the case of the introduction of socialism or the transition from system of planned economy to a market system, such changes seem concentrated and perhaps exacerbated. Certainly, such circumstances provide the opportunity to see the process of social philosophy and its impact upon land use in a telescoped fashion, The discovery and explanation of these elements might provide some insight into basic human behavior, and its relationship to social control and how people organize space both with and without control. This paper presents the results of observations of changes in land use as they have occurred during the course of transitional economic development in Beijing, China for the past decade. It suggests three new generic categories that can be applied to any culture or society.     

The Evolution of the Use of Space：Lessons from Beijing

Specific changes in land use can, and often do, occur when any social economic system moves from one form to another. When traditional societies transit from traditional land uses to philosophically determined land uses, as in the case of the introduction of sooialism or the transition from system of planned economy to a market system, such changes seem concentrated and perhaps exacerbated. Certainly, such circumstances provide the opportunity to see the process of social philosophy and its impact upon land use in a telescoped fashion. The discovery and explanation of these elements might provide some insight into basic human behavior, and its relationship to social controt and how people organize space both with and without control. This paper presents the results of observations of changes in land use as they have occurred during the course of transitional economic development in Beijing, China for the past decade, it suggests three new generic categories that can be applied to any culture or society.