A choice-based multi-product diffusion model incorporating replacement demand

This study proposes an integrated forecasting model that incorporates both first purchase diffusion and replacement component of sales in predicting multi-product diffusion patterns. The model consists of a two-stage procedure that customers undertake during purchase occasions according to a diffusion process or replacement process, and at each occasion, they make purchase incidence decisions and product choices according to a choice model. By incorporating various exogenous factors in the choice model, the model can identify the impact of each factor on customers' purchase incidence decisions and choice decisions among various product sub-categories. This approach enables us to understand the overall process of customers' purchasing behavior and to separate total sales amount into sales to three consumer segments: first-time buyers, customers who repurchase the same product category and customers who change their previous product category. We applied the proposed model in the forecasting multi-product framework; forecasting sub-category level automobile sales and brand level mobile terminal sales in the South Korean market. The results of the empirical studies showed that incorporating the replacement components into the multi-product diffusion framework is useful not only in understanding the demand interaction among automobile categories and among mobile handset brands, but also in producing more accurate long-term sales forecasts compared to previous multi-product diffusion models.     

A study on the relationship between technology diffusion and new product diffusion

This study investigates the relationship between “technology diffusion” and “new product diffusion”. We define “technology diffusion” as a knowledge spillover process, which is represented by patent citation, and “new product diffusion” as the spread of a new product that has been developed by the application of patented technology. To investigate the relationship between the two types of diffusion, we use patent citation data of code division multiple access (CDMA) technology and market sales data of mobile phones in South Korea for the analysis. The results show that the diffusion of technology through patent citation could be successfully explained by empirical analysis, for which the Bass diffusion model was used. Moreover, we can find out if technology diffusion can be the leading indicator of a new product's diffusion before its launching; in other words, before the commercialization of the patent.     

新产品推广与服务创新框架——以我国影像行业数码化为例

本文以我国影像行业数码化为例,构建了新产品推广与服务创新的框架,分析了新产品开发体系与服务创新开发体系的特点和演化规律,指出了建立服务创新体系的要点。本文发现,新产品开发中的服务创新必须建立体系,行业开发中的服务创新必须建立框架。新产品开发体系与服务创新开发体系具有融合性、增益性的特点,服务创新体系的建立和完善是不断深化的过程,一般规律为:技术服务—市场服务—管理服务—行业综合服务,且服务创新体系的建设必须抓住两个"三结合":制造商、经销商、先导用户三结合;技术开发、服务创新与行业开发三结合。行业服务创新体系是建立边缘行业的推动力,各行各业的服务创新体系都应搭建综合服务平台,以保证服务创新的不断深化,实现赶超世界先进国家服务创新体系的高效益。     

Forecasting sales and product evolution: The case of the hybrid/electric car

We present a model that forecasts sales and product evolution, based on data on market and industry, which can be collected before the product is introduced. Product evolution can be incremental but can also take place by releasing new generations. In our model adoption of a new product is motivated by attribute improvements (enabled by technology evolution), and firms' attribute improvements strategies are motivated by market growth and directed by market preferences. The interdependency between attributes' improvements and cumulative adoption level makes the problem inherently dynamic. The dependency of attribute levels on adoption levels is assessed using industry and technology analysis. Market preferences and purchase intention response to attribute levels changes are assessed based on a conjoint study. The option of collecting and interpreting data about both demand and supply aspects, before the new product is introduced, enables us to estimate sales and technology progress endogenously rather than to require them as inputs. We demonstrate the method on the hybrid car market.     

Technology diffusion theory revisited: a regulation,environment, strategy,technology model for technology activation analysis of mobile ICT

Theory on the diffusion of mobile information and communication technology (ICT) is mainly focused on technology diffusion, while prerequisites to such diffusion are largely disregarded or taken for granted. Moreover, few constructs for the assessment of technology diffusion take into account the inherent link between technology and strategy analysis. This study proposes that analysing what comes prior to diffusion and use of technology – here defined as ‘technology activation’ – is equally important, so as to identify external, not user-related determinants that enable or hinder a value proposition based on the new technology. To fill the existing gap and extend technology diffusion theory upstream, the limitations of the technology–organisation–environment model and of other technology diffusion models are reviewed, together with external strategy analysis models, and an original model is proposed to address four macro-determinants that affect technology activation: Regulation, environment, strategy, technology (REST). The REST model is then applied to the Italian mobile location-based services market, to qualitatively validate its comprehensiveness. Conclusions are drawn on the opportunities to extend the mobile technology diffusion analysis process upstream, and to integrate technology analysis with existing research on strategy analysis, thus providing new momentum to mainstream research on innovation diffusion.     

基于跨案例研究的颠覆性技术演进特征分析

在梳理前人研究成果的基础上，得到颠覆性技术演进的14个特征范畴，从低端颠覆和高端颠覆视角选取电动自行车等4项不同类型颠覆性技术演进特征进行跨案例分析，遵循复制法对特征范畴进行反复修正、补充与融合，分别得到12个低端颠覆性技术演进特征和13个高端颠覆性技术演进特征，并据此构建全过程视角下颠覆性技术特征模型。通过对两种颠覆性技术演进特征进行对比分析，总结出在创造性、异轨性和迭代性上的特征共性，以及在价值主张、价值路线和价值检验上的特征差异。     

结合新产品扩散特征的实物期权定价模型研究

现有实物期权定价模型未能考虑新产品销售量所呈现的扩散特征,模型的分析结果与实际情况有较大差距。文章假设新产品价格服从几何布朗运动,并以Bass模型预测新产品的销售过程,运用二叉树方法,构建了离散时间状态下结合新产品扩散特征的实物期权定价模型,并得到新技术采用的最优时机。     

Diffusion of mobile telephony in India: An empirical study

Diffusion of new technology is an important driver of economic growth. In this paper, diffusion of mobile telephony in India is studied. There is a vast diffusion potential in this country which needs to be exploited efficiently and in a rational way. This paper investigates the social, technological, economical and political (STEP) factors that have influenced the diffusion process of mobile telephony especially the diffusion speed. The epidemic model, which is widely employed in the diffusion studies of mobile telephony, is used for the study. The data is fitted into logistic, gompertz, and bass models by nonlinear least squares and it is found that gompertz model best describes the diffusion process of mobile telephony in India. The study reveals that competition and government intervention played a significant role in accelerating the diffusion speed of mobile telephony by making the technology affordable. It is found that mobile telephony is a substitute for fixed line telephony in India. The findings will be useful in taking managerial decisions with respect to factors in forecasting and controlling the diffusion process of emerging technologies.     

Technological change and path dependence: a co-evolutionary model on a directed graph

In this paper, I model technological change as an evolutionary process of generation and selection of economic activities in a highly path-dependent fashion. There are two key features of our approach. The first is that economic activities are conceived as points of a directed graph and endowed with a corresponding notion of technological distance which determines both the probability of invention of any new activity and the cost of learning it. The second feature is that agents are assumed rational and taken to choose optimally from among the available activities, given the status quo and the associated learning costs. In such a context, we focus on two economies that start off technologically close and evolve side by side with some extent of technological diffusion across them. It is shown that alternative assumptions on the speed of diffusion may have drastically different implications for the evolution of the process. I then argue that this theoretical analysis helps provide some insight on existing empirical evidence; in particular, on the conditions under which relative stagnation or technological catch-up may arise and become consolidated among different economies.     

Adoption of mobile money and financial inclusion: a macroeconomic approach through cluster analysis

This paper investigates the patterns of adoption of mobile money in emerging and developing countries. Mobile money is a mobile-based service, which provides access to low-cost financial services for people excluded from the banking system. It is designed to overcome the difficulties related to entering the banking system and the unavailability of banking infrastructure. Drawing on macroeconomic comparative and case study analysis conducted by practitioner experts, this study takes a wide macroeconomic approach to the adoption of mobile money adoption in 2011 and 2014, based on the alternative strategy of cluster analysis. We exploit the new technology diffusion frameworks to evaluate dissimilarity among groups of countries with similar levels of adoption of mobile money. We investigate whether adoption of mobile money services are highest in countries where access to formal banking services is lowest. Our analytical results support the predictions in the technology diffusion literature and nuance the potential of mobile money as a tool to counter banking exclusion.     

Policy analysis for growth of a new technology product

Three important aspects of the growth of a new technology product are new product diffusion, rise in productivity, and new product management. The authors maintain that these three aspects are interrelated. The study presented in this paper selected a system dynamics framework to address, in a unified fashion, the above-mentioned aspects of growth in the context of the TV industry in India. The study indicates that (a) in conformity to the present trend, new product diffusion should be treated as a multiattribute phenomenon, and a study of causal factors and their relationships hold the key to understanding this phenomenon, (b) contrary to the prevailing belief, new technology may not enhance capital or total productivity, particularly after the end of the major expansion phase of the product life cycle, and (c) new product growth is generally associated with a loss of market share during the major growth phase and an overcapacity at the end of this phase. Various policy tests on the model reveal that in the case of the Indian TV industry, employee skill has the highest leverage in improving company performance in terms of increased market share, increased productivity and profitability figures, and reduced overcapacity.     

Analysing diffusion pattern of mobile application services in Korea using the competitive Bass model and Herfindahl index

Mobile service has been totally revolutionizing the service industry with the explosive growth in mobile application (‘app’) services. With the rapid proliferation of mobile app service, there is still a constant need for the research focusing on the precise and scientific prediction of the diffusion of mobile app service with consideration of competitive relationships. However, most of the relevant research dealing with diffusion did not consider the competition effect among mobile app services. In addition, in mobile app services, big competitors, which have a larger marketing share in same category, can interrupt the diffusion of other mobile app services significantly. Thus, the level of competitiveness also should be considered for more precise prediction of mobile app service. Accordingly, the present study proposes a new approach to analyse the degree of competitiveness of mobile app service categories using Herfindahl–Hirschman index and classify mobile app service categories. Then, this study systematically analyses their respective diffusion patterns based on the given empirical data using competitive Bass model. A case of Korean mobile service industry is presented to illustrate the proposed approach.     

A New Comprehensive Patent Analysis Approach for New Product Design in Mechanical Engineering

This study proposes a five-phase procedure for a new product design process. Based on the concept of “focus first, then extend”, this study presents a new approach called the New Comprehensive Patent Analysis model (NCPA) which combines the patent family with patent citation analysis in a new product design process. The procedure includes the following features: (1) integrating the perspective of management-based and technology-based design for patent searching, (2) building a patent family based on industry basic patents, (3) filtering the patent family to obtain key patents, (4) utilizing patent citations to gain necessary technology information in product development design, and (5) combining TRIZ theory to construct patent technology performance maps, and to discover product niches. This NCPA model is empirically applied in a real case. The results show that the NCPA improves the overall efficiency of new product designs, but also involves higher cost than other approaches.     

A non-homogeneous non-uniform influence model of innovation diffusion

A model of innovation diffusion which gives unequal weightage to the adopters of different temporal stages and captures commonly observed ups and downs in new product diffusion is proposed. It is shown that our model possesses features of the existing flexible diffusion models and shows better fit which is indicated by the values of R²_adj, mean absolute deviation, and mean percentage error and estimates a larger market potential, M. It has an interesting feature of conversion factors, first increasing then vanishing, much before we approach market saturation, implying that there is a scope of new thrust in converting remaining potential adopters.     

Multigeneration diffusion model for economic assessment of new technology

In the era of 21st century, development of emerging information technology is the essence of the advancement. This kind of new technology, however, often requires a great deal of amount of initial investment for both procedures of R&D and commercialization. As cost invested in developing the specified technology is increasing, investors are paying more attention to cost to benefit analysis (CBA). One of the basic elements of CBA for new technological development is the diffusion pattern of demand of such technology. Typically, it would be hard to presume the diffusion pattern of demand when the new product or the technology is under development. In this case, a simulation study is necessary. Many studies of technology evaluation have adopted a single generation model to simulate the diffusion pattern of demand. This approach, however, considers the diffusion of the new technology itself, not taking into account newer generation, which can replace the one just invented. In the real market situation, one must consider the competition and substitution phenomena between old and new technologies. In this paper, we show how multigeneration technology diffusion model can be applied for more accurate CBA for information technology. Additionally, Monte Carlo simulation is performed to find influential factors on the CBA of a cybernetic building system (CBS).     

Testing evolutionary theory of household consumption behavior in the case of novelty - a product characteristics approach

This article tests and extends the evolutionary theory of household consumption behavior, which is an alternative to neoclassical theory. Evolutionary economists offer novel approaches to the analysis of consumption behavior that emphasize the major role of learning in the evolution of consumer preferences and wants. As a possible inspiration for further progress in evolutionary thought, this paper examines the idea of consumer learning by studying the nature of what consumers should learn in the context of ‘novelty’. Our empirical results regarding novelty during the learning process show that consumers learn the ‘new characteristics’ of consumer goods, contrary to the Lancasterian approach, which suggests that the characteristics space of goods is fixed. We show that during the process of consumption, ‘consumer learning’ extends the characteristics space of consumer goods; this phenomenon is far from negligible and differs across product types. Moreover, our results show that the emergence of new characteristics cannot be modeled as a Poisson process because these new characteristics exhibit clear interdependence over time.     

The diffusion of mobile telephony in Italy and the UK: an empirical investigation

Since its appearance mobile telephony has shown a remarkably fast diffusion pattern in most advanced countries. This paper investigates technological and economic factors that have influenced the diffusion process of cellular phones, in particular the diffusion speed and the upper limit. The epidemic model widely used in diffusion studies is summarised and discussed highlighting the evolutionary disequilibrium nature of diffusion processes. Moreover, the econometric specification of some of the models distinguishes between long-run relationships and short-run adjustments to a continuously evolving pattern. We find that the new digital technology, which coincides with increased competition in both Italy and the UK, has made the process faster and increased the saturation level in Italy, but not in the UK; in Italy only the decreasing price of the handset has affected the diffusion process, whereas we find that, in addition to that, decreasing tariffs and increasing consumption expenditures have been significant in shaping the diffusion process of mobile telephony in the UK.     

互补性能力在产品创新价值链中的影响研究

以高新技术企业为样本,深入剖析企业营销能力、企业技术能力与产品创新价值链之间的关系,从过程角度研究企业互补性能力对产品创新不同环节的影响和相对重要性。创新过程可视为从创意产生,到创意转化,再到创意扩散的三个阶段的有序演进。研究发现,在创意产生阶段,企业营销能力比企业技术能力作用更重要;在创意转化和扩散阶段,企业技术能力比企业营能力作用更重要;企业营销能力与企业技术能力的互补效应对创意产生、创意转化及创意扩散都具有显著正向影响。     

Licensing policies for a new product

This paper studies licensing policies for the owner of a new product and addresses their welfare impact in the assessment of market failures. We show that the best licensing policy for the patent holder is fixed fee licensing with an exclusive territory clause. Consumers are also better off with fixed fees but do not prefer the exclusive territory clause. Social welfare is higher under exclusive territories when fixed costs are not too large. As for efficiency, the number of licences in the private market equilibrium falls short of the socially optimal solution. Our analysis discloses that (i) any policy measures aimed at enhancing the diffusion of technology, in terms of the number of licences, would be welcomed and, (ii) the permissive treatment received by licensing agreements with exclusive territories is justified.     

社会网络与新产品扩散协同演化研究

基于复杂网络视角,从微观层面对新产品扩散问题进行研究。结合心理学、社会学和博弈论,构建个体决策行为模型,并设计出一种智能学习方法实现消费者间的互动。在Anylogic上建立多Agent模型,考虑局部网络效应,设计网络演化规则,探究不同网络环境下网络结构和消费者决策共同演化规律,并分析产品效用参数、沟通交互强度、种子用户数量以及链接断开时间对共同演化的影响。研究发现：①尽管初始网络结构不同,消费者关系结构均能够以更高的聚集性和稳定性重构,且在小世界和无标度网络下,共同演化、彼此促进,从而有助于产品扩散;②尽管在高度数的无标度网络下共同演化会使扩散结果呈现出两面性,但在扩散过程中网络结构变化趋势一致;③网络效应强度提高能增大产品效用值,但过高和过低的效用值都将削弱网络演化对扩散的促进效果;④种子用户在达到一定规模后,不再影响最终扩散结果;⑤若共同演化能在最终时刻前达到稳定,链接断开时间则不影响扩散结果。