Output Effects of Disinflation with Staggered Price Setting

A discrete-time model with staggered price setting is shown to be flexible enough to analyze a variety of scenarios in which policymakers may introduce disinflation. While a recession need not necessarily occur, a semicredible disinflation (i.e., when price setters believe a new lower money growth rate will continue but do not act on future reductions) unambiguously depresses output with staggered prices, no matter how rapidly or slowly the disinflation is introduced.     

Disinflation in the Italian economy in an optimal control setting

In this article we use optimal control techniques and a nonlinear, small-size econometric model of the Italian economy, with the purpose of analyzing the disinflation process that has characterized the Italian economy during the period 1984–1987. Within the optimization framework, we question a wide range of issues of political economy, the role of incomes policy, and nominal anchors in promoting low-cost disinflation.     

Central Bank Independence,Speed of Disinflation and the Sacrifice Ratio

Using a theoretical model in which the degree of central bank independence affects the degree of inflation persistence and therefore the speed of disinflation, this paper suggests that sacrifice ratios are lower when central bank independence is higher. Empirical tests, using estimates of sacrifice ratios based on disinflation episodes for 18 OECD countries during the 1960–90 period, show that this result also holds empirically. This finding seems to be consistent with the credibility hypothesis by pointing out that an independent central bank may produce a credibility bonus.     

Fixed Exchange Rates and Disinflation in Emerging Markets: How Large Is the Effect?

We examine developing countries which have institutional quality ratings for the effects of exchange rate rigidity on inflation. The level of institutional development exerts no effect on the impact of currency regimes. However, the interaction of institutional quality and exchange rates has, in the most plausible specifications, a negative impact on inflation. This suggests that fixed exchange rates exert at most a contingent effect on inflation, and indicates that countries in Eastern Europe and Latin America contemplating currency pegs would be better off improving institutional quality prior to adopting the euro or dollar and expecting a large subsequent disinflationary effect. JEL no.  F31, O11     

穿行在神奇的“三江并流“区

三江均发源于青藏高原的亘古冰川,金沙江在云南石鼓镇附近转身向北切开玉龙雪山和哈巴雪山的阻隔,形成威震天下的"虎跳峡",继而滚滚向东润育着华夏文明.     

世界500强的动态研究

通过对近4年世界500强企业排行榜的比较分析,找出其发展特征以及我国企业的差距,并提出我国企业今后发展的对策。     

终极控制、治理环境与盈余管理——基于中国上市公司非货币性交易的分析

本文以发生非货币性交易的上市公司为研究样本，结合企业终极产权性质和公司所处治理环境的影响，对上市公司盈余管理进行分析。研究得出：不同终极产权性质的上市公司利用非货币性交易方式进行盈余管理，其会计行为不具有显著差异；而终极控制权比例和公司所处治理环境则是影响上市公司盈余管理的重要变量。同时本文的检验结果表明，我国上市公司利用非货币性交易进行盈余管理是基于配股动机、扭亏动机和被特别处理动机。     

全球金融危机的政治学与经济学

我们正处于全球经济及政治危机的中间阶段,其强度之大为第二次世界大战结束以来所仅见。这一危机造成的紧张局势已经在全世界广为传播,在不同的国家表现为不同的形式。许多政府已经垮台,未来还会有更多政府因为持续的失业和普遍的愤     

全球性公共养老保障制度改革与中国的选择--与GDP相连的空帐、比与资本市场相连的实帐更可靠更可取

在上世纪90年代后期的全球性养老保障制度的大辩论中达成了一致的结论有：积累制与现收现特制一样、都不能应对人口结构老龄化带来的养老金的财政困难；如果把转轨成本也算在内的话，积累制与现收现付制的收益率是相同的。本文通过对全球性公共养老保障制度改革内容的详尽考察发现，发达国家的公共养老保障制度几乎都是现收现付制，今后也没有改为积累制的打算，并且理论上公共养老保障制度只能实行现收现付制。另外当筹资方式为现收现付制时、也可以建立缴费与给付一一对应的个人帐户，这样对我国来说就再也没有必须采用积累制的理由了。而在名义缴费确定型现收现付制中，我国现行制度中存在的激励不足、投资风险、巨额转轨成本等难题都可以较容易地得到解决。     

The Global Domain of the Dollar: Eight Questions

Atlantic Economic Journal - Since the late 1950s, the rest of the world has come to use the dollar to an extent that justifies speaking of the dollar’s global domain. The rest of the world...     

新冠肺炎疫情与全球治理变革

新冠肺炎疫情暴发以来迅速演变为一场全球公共卫生危机,不仅对人类生命安全和身体健康产生了巨大威胁,也使经济全球化受到重创,在全球多领域产生了全方位链式影响,凸显了全球治理的紧迫性和重要性。然而,现有全球治理体系在应对此次疫情过程中反应迟缓、部分失灵、治理成效有限。国际组织、国际机构、国际机制等应对不足、效果不彰。大国领导、大国协调与合作难度加大,未能体现领导作用。各国需要反思如何来加强全球治理体系改革,以更好地确保人类公共卫生安全。各国还需维护和稳定当前的世界秩序,在公共卫生领域形成一个人类卫生健康共同体。要树立人类命运共同体理念,强化对国际治理制度的更新、补充和替代,加大大国协调与合作力度,加强对世界卫生组织的赋权和赋能,提升其权威性和行动力,强化二十国集团等机制和制度建设,增补新的制度安排,在全球层面结成理念共同体、制度共同体、政策共同体、行动共同体和责任共同体。只有这样,各国才能共同应对未来人类所面临的公共卫生挑战,确保人类的生命安全和共同发展繁荣。     

风景这边独好

巴山渝水,多么摇曳生姿的名字。山因水而“仙灵”,水因山而“龙吟”。这里的好山好水好风光,早已成为都市人劳碌疲惫之后的休闲天堂。特别是“五个重庆”的建设,更将古朴的“天生丽质”与崭新的现代梳妆浑然一体地融合在一起,形成“风景这边独好”的道道景观。     

海峡西岸港口业整合模式与策略研究

整合是空间经济学关于生产要素空间布局和经济活动区位联系的一种有效的策略。然而规划与管理主体在政策导向和协调资源投入进行港口相关产业整合时,由于管理视野的局限和利益的多方纠葛,容易造成港口区位孤岛,导致港口区位产业整合失败。针对这一问题,结合海西港口业整合瓶颈分析,提出建立港口群与临港产业群供应链协同的整合模式。该模式是基于空间经济学作用于港口节点的应用指导。研究结果表明,这一模式策略对新一轮福建港口业的整合发展,形成海西港口群与临港产业群两大系统集群效应,具有模式运行和策略实施指导的双重价值。     

The New Roles of Japan in the Global Political Economy

Now that Japan is the world's largest creditor nation, her economic responsibility is the biggest ever. By examining the nature of the three revolutions in Japanese society since the Meiji Restoration, it is apparent that while the speed of economic structural change has been remarkably high, other aspects of the Japanese social framework have remained archaic and premodern.
After discussing the structural changes in the Japanese, Asian, and U.S. economies, this paper makes a case for structural changes in the Japanese political, bureaucratic, and diplomatic world. The new perspective to be suggested is (1) to change the system to utilize more of individuals' initiatives, less of the regulated, restrained, and group-shackled way of management, and (2) for Japan to take positive leadership in a new global political economy based on the principle of independent and equal partnership in the world for world peace and stability.     

The Effect of the Global Financial Crisis on Transition Economies

This research offers new insights into the effect of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 on the countries that used to be part of the Soviet bloc by focusing on a cross-regional comparison. Twenty-eight countries are grouped according to different criteria and the corresponding vulnerability of each group is compared. The research links the variability in the groups’ responses to the dependence on trade with the European Union, the degree of the transition and economic freedom, and the sectoral composition of GDP. The research finds that what is considered to be an advantage for a transition economy during “normal” times -- high degree of economic freedom and trade liberalization, financial system sophistication, and a well-developed service sector -- became a disadvantage during the crisis.     

全球愤怒:金融危机的政治后遗症

金融危机对收入分配和社会变动的影响已经开始逐渐显露。本文讨论了金融危机之后带来的三条断裂线:不同年龄的人口之间的矛盾和冲突,超级富豪和社会大众之间的矛盾和冲突,不同种族和宗教之间的矛盾和冲突。这三种潜在的社会冲突,再加上遭遇债务压力的各国将采取更加严厉的财政紧缩政策、城市化的发展、全球化的推动以及互联网和社交网络软件的出现等因素的催化,未来的国际经济中将会出现更多的贸易战、货币战和就业战。     

生产国际化和全球产业结构调整

<正>面向21世纪的经济全球化的重要经济特征将是生产国际化并且日益形成一体化国际生产。由跨国公司设在其他国家的子公司或分公司所控制和管理的产品和服务的一体化国际生产是经济全球化过程中的核心。     

磁器口B面

每个重庆人都知道磁器口,这个有着千年历史的小镇历经岁月沉淀,如今仍魅力不减.一色青瓦的长街,漆色斑驳的店门,满街人流如潮,各种作坊生意火爆,昔日老码头的昌盛景象仍在这里一日一日上演着.古镇不大,“一江两溪三山四街”,但有人喜欢热闹,也有人喜欢清静.一旦离开烟火味极浓的正街,沿着一条安静的小巷东拐西拐,跨过一座石桥,顺着山坡的石梯走出三五步路,古镇就这样留在了身后.一转眼,你的视线骤然就扩大了.嘉陵江顿时在眼前铺开,江和岸边的老房子一样地呈现出青灰的颜色,只是江水泛波,老房子则异样的安静.一般游客不会到这里来,相比热闹的古镇,这里显然被人们遗忘了,仿佛是一个秘密.     

民族的就是世界的

华夏民族在大融合中铸成56个民族，56种特色，56种神奇的民族风情。而承载着民族特色、表达着民族文化的民族商品，更是吸人眼球，将56个民族间的文化交流与经济沟通紧紧地联系在一起。中国有大大小小的交易会，而最能让人品位出华夏民族几千年文化味道的，应属中国民族商品交易会。2007中国民族商品交易会，将于2007年8月2日～5日在呼和浩特市举办。     

碧水桥畔

长桥外、柳影扶风、新荷层叠。一座桥，曾经的声响、光泽，曾经蜂拥在心灵深处和欲望，会不会在这样一个用寓意书写它的时刻，短暂又集中地回放脑中，而紧随其后的是运去的灵感。踏上这静卧的石桥，除了澄净，连脚底的忧郁也一瞬而过了。