The Working Behavior of Young People in Rural Cote d'Ivoire

One of the major features of structural adjustment is an attemptto reallocate labor—and hence output—through changesin relative prices. This article assesses how price changesaffect the working patterns of young people in rural Côted'Ivoire. The analysis is based on a model of the labor supplyof rural households and on the construction of composite priceindexes. The data come from the Côte d'Ivoire Living StandardsSurvey for 1985 and 1986. The panel aspect of the data allowsthe work choice made in one year to depend on the individual'schoice in the previous year. Results indicate that the priceof agricultural output generally is a positive incentive onthe decision to participate in the labor force. However, thisresult depends heavily on the employment and education of theindividual in the previous period. Those not already workingare less likely to respond to favorable movements in the pricesof cash crops by entering the work force.     

切实加强新时期青少年诚信教育

近年来在我国青少年中出现相当程度的诚信危机。诚信品格的培养是个人发展的需要,也是社会发展的需要,加强青少年的诚信教育必须由全社会共同努力,积极探讨诚信教育的途径和方法,以培养出新一代具有诚信品质的人才。     

The Rise and Rise of Evidence in Health Care

Health care practitioners (especially doctors) have always given assurances that what they do is efficacious. But in the past 50 years justification of the effectiveness of health care interventions has attained a new prominence. Evidence, at least notionally, now lies at the heart of health care policy and practice. This article provides an overview of the generation and use of evidence on effectiveness in health care. It explains why rigorous methodologies have taken hold and describes the major preoccupation with trying to ensure that research evidence has an impact on clinical practice. The strengths and weaknesses of evidence-based health care are explored to identify the opportunities for profitable transfer of experience across the public sector.     

The Fall and Rise of Evidence in Criminal Justice

Practitioners within the criminal justice system have been cautious about claiming that their work with offenders directly impacts on the level of subsequent re-offending. This article provides an overview of the generation and use of evidence on effectiveness within the criminal justice system, particularly focusing on the supervision of offenders by the probation service. The article outlines the continuing debates about appropriate methodologies for evaluating effectiveness. It also describes some of the problems encountered in trying to get research evidence to have an impact on offender supervision practice. Finally, the strengths and weaknesses of the present move towards evidence-based criminal justice services are explored in order to provide learning opportunities for other public services.     

流动性过剩与价格上涨密切相关

流动性过剩将会长期存在。从2000年开始谈论的流动性过剩问题，这么多年一直没有消除掉，其主要原因是经济发展的失衡，且没有任何一个国家愿意在这个过程中付出代价。我的演讲将围绕以下问题，第一，如何理解流动性过剩在中国。第二，人民银行能否对冲过剩的流动性。实际上是做不到的。因为很多货币供给已在货币当局的监控之外。第三，流动性过剩必然会导致这轮价格的上涨和资产价格的膨胀。第四，对流动性过剩不应做好或坏的判断，而要客观评定。如何利用流动性过剩，来改造目前的经济结构。最后，流动性过剩和资产价格的膨胀会长期存在。     

Residential Search and Mobility in a Housing Market Equilibrium Model

In this paper, we propose an equilibrium model for the housing market which provides an explanation for observed housing consumption of households over their lifetimes. The moving behavior of households is described as a stochastic dynamic process in which households moving decisions depend on information which is obtained over time. Households move when the offer exceeds an endogenously determined threshold. On the basis of the households moving behavior, the steady-state distribution of households over the housing stock is obtained. On the supply side of the market, landlords are looking for households to occupy their vacant dwellings. Their strategy is to set rents in a mixed strategy in order to profit from imperfect information. After formulating search behavior of households as well as the behavior of landlords, the market equilibrium is derived. We explore the sensitivity of the equilibrium to changes in the structural parameters.     

Occupational differentiation and exclusion in early Canadian accountancy

Canada’s 1881 census enumerators posed a range of questions that provide scope for an in–depth investigation of the identity of its accounting functionaries (accountants and bookkeepers) in that year. The significance of our findings is explained by applying the concept of closure through exclusion and occupational differentiation. We discover that Canada’s accounting community, at the dawn of professional organisation, was dominated by people originating from Great Britain & Ireland. The rural/urban divide for Canada’s accountants is the inverse of that for the population as a whole and, as in Britain, congregation occurs around the major commercial ports. Significant differentiation exists between the demographic profile of Canada’s accounting functionaries compared with its entire population and between that of accountants compared with bookkeepers. Strong evidence of exclusionary closure is revealed through an analysis of the demographic characteristics of the initial leaderships of Canada’s early accounting associations. The paper concludes by identifying opportunities for further research.     

资本自由流动与所得税的协调:欧盟的法律与实践

欧盟成员国所得税法的协调对于欧盟内资本自由流动的实现具有重要意义。欧盟部长理事会颁布了数个旨在协调成员国所得税税制的指令。欧洲法院通过解释共同体法有关服务和资本自由流动的规则来消除成员国国内所得税法中阻碍共同市场发展的因素。但是,由于共同体缺乏协调直接税的专有权限,欧盟层面上的所得税法发展缓慢。欧元的启动对欧盟成员国所得税法的协调提出了新的要求。     

标准金融学的经验异常与行为金融学的兴起

被称为“异象”或“谜题”的一些与有效市场假定和标准金融定价模型相矛盾的实证现象带来了对现有标准金融学理论的挑战，也引发了有关金融学范式是否应该转换的论争。对于金融研究范式转换问题的不同立场源自于关于决策行为主体的决策行为基础的不同假定。行为心理基础假定基础上的行为决策分析则构成了行为金融学理论的核心，推动了行为学的兴起，而前景理论则构成行为金融学兴起的决策价值理论基础。     

Capital Mobility in Developing Countries: Some Measurement Issues and Empirical Estimates

A fundamental determinant of the macroeconomic properties ofan economy is its degree of financial integration with the outsideworld. Yet very little is known about this characteristic ofmany developing economies. An important stumbling block in theempirical assessment of financial integration is the multiplicityof approaches to measurement. This article describes and evaluatesalternative tests of capital mobility and applies four suchtests to assess the degree of integration with external financialmarkets exhibited by a large group of developing countries inrecent years. The evidence suggests that a substantial numberof developing countries can be considered financially open.     

Capital Mobility and Source-Based Taxation of Capital Income in Small Open Economies

This paper examines the taxation of capital income in a small open economy that faces a highly elastic supply of internationally mobile capital and increasing tax competition. The analysis considers a wide variety of additional factors that affect the determination of capital income taxation policy, including the desire to tax economic rents earned by foreign and domestic firms, the desire to take advantage of any treasury transfer effects, the role played by transfer pricing and other financial accounting manipulations by foreign multinationals, the need for a backstop to the personal income tax and various political concerns. The paper evaluates several potential income and consumption-based tax reforms in this context. JEL Code: H21, H25, H87     

信用评级对股价涨跌的影响

本文实证检验主体信用评级对股价涨跌的影响。结果发现：低的主体评级会提高个股的股价大幅下跌风险;信息不对称程度越高、代理成本越高,低评级影响股价大幅下跌风险的效应越强。从传导机制来看,较低的主体评级水平具有预测企业未来较差绩效的能力,并且伴随着股价信息含量增加,企业未来融资减少,这表明低评级会通过一般性信息渠道、差别信息渠道和融资渠道提高股价大幅下跌风险。评级上调不会影响股价大幅下跌风险,但降低评级则会提高股价大幅下跌风险。     

Retail Trading in Options and the Rise of the Big Three Wholesalers

We document a rapid increase in retail trading in options in the United States. Facilitated by payment for order flow (PFOF) from wholesalers executing retail orders, retail trading recently reached over 60% of total market volume. Nearly 90% of PFOF comes from three wholesalers. Exploiting new flags in transaction-level data, we isolate wholesaler trades and build a novel measure of retail options trading. Our measure comoves with equity-based retail activity proxies and drops significantly during U.S. brokerage platform outages and trading restrictions. Retail investors prefer cheaper, weekly options with average bid-ask spread of 12.6%, and lose money on average.     

共同富裕、贸易开放与中国的代际收入流动性

本文利用2002-2018年期间的中国家庭收入调查数据,系统考察了贸易开放对中国代际收入流动性的影响及其作用机制。研究结果表明:(1)从整体上来看,贸易开放显著促进了中国的代际收入流动性,经内生性处理和稳健性检验,这一结论是成立的。(2)贸易开放主要通过促进子代教育、职业向上流动显著提高代际收入流动,但通过激励企业创新、提高子代个人努力程度的两个机制作用不显著。(3)贸易开放显著提高了男性子代的代际收入流动性,对女性子代的影响不显著,与此同时,还具有明显的“弱势群体”特点,显著提高了受教育水平较低子代、低收入家庭子代的代际收入流动性,有助于这类子代跳出“代际低收入传承陷阱”。本文研究提示贸易开放提高了中国的代际收入流动性,有利于促进共同富裕。在继续提高贸易开放水平的同时,应进一步重视提高低收入家庭子代的受教育水平,关注女性子代的收入问题。     

全球经济失衡与新兴市场经济体主权财富基金的崛起

全球储备失衡和全球债务失衡导致新兴市场经济体持有庞大的对外净债权,新兴市场经济体对外净债权的扩张导致主权财富基金的崛起,这就是当代全球新兴市场经济体主权财富基金崛起的基本逻辑。我们有理由预期,随着全球经济失衡状况的进一步加剧,新兴市场经济体的主权财富基金规模还会持续增长。     

2005年度中国十大金融事件十大金融人物

2005年,中国经济依然保持着昂首急行的姿态,作为其中枢的金融则是进行了一场近乎惊险的跳跃。金融业全面开放的倒计时钟即将谢幕,可是我们却还有太多的事情没有准备妥当,我们的惟一选择就是只争朝夕。那么, 在中国金融业匆匆走过的2005年中,可以沉淀给2006乃至更长远未来的人和事有哪些?本刊梳理出的十大金融人物和十大金融事件可望为所有关心中国金融业未来的人士提供一隅之见。按照中国的传统,“十”代表完美,但我们坦诚“双十”的确无法对中国金融业在过去一年里的风雨历程做出完美的概括。我们深知,中国金融业一刻也离不开无数普通人默默无闻的奉献。我们也清楚,本刊的“双十”概括肯定会引发一些争论,但争论是一种常态。2005年的中国金融业正是在争论中度过。 2006年,争论将会持续,但中国金融业的改革和开放也必将执着前行。     

美国社区养老服务设施建设及启示

中国是老年人口大国,传统的农业社会家庭养老模式已经不能适应工业化时代老龄化发展需要,因此学习国外的经验有助于解决今后中国老年人口养老服务问题。研究方法是收集文献资料和到养老机构实地调查。美国是一个崇尚年轻人文化的老龄化社会,但目前,老年人不再是从家庭到养老院的单一生活轨迹,社区为老年人提供了更多的选择机会,从健康老人服务、自理、半自理服务到专门护理,各种服务设施齐全。服务提供者以私人、企业、教会为主,服务质量要符合联邦政府及当地政府的标准。     

2012年英国强制性第二支柱养老金改革及其对中国的启示

英国养老金制度体系的问题是公共养老金保障不足,职业养老金覆盖范围有限。英国自2012年10开始实施“自动注册”的强制性第二支柱计划,该计划涉及面广,分阶段实施,在实施过程中具有一定的弹性,由雇主和雇员共同缴费,国家给予一定的财政补贴,通过养老金监督局和信托制度（NEST）,增加指导,辅助实施。文章分析了此项改革的来龙去脉,并认为此项改革是英国养老金一揽子改革的重要组成部分,既是对过去30余年公共养老保险私有化改革引起的问题的修补,也是完善养老金体制的重要突破。英国此项改革的一些做法值得中国借鉴。