Imperfect information, Bayesian learning, and capital accumulation

This paper examines the consequences of informational imperfections for economic growth in an overlapping generations model in which agents learn the technological parameters in a Bayesian fashion. Under mild sufficient conditions, beliefs converge to the true value of the technological parameters. Nevertheless, even short-lived informational imperfections could have lasting effects, as they alter the long-run equilibrium levels of the capital stock. Therefore, learning dynamics may explain some of the observed differences in the performance of countries with otherwise similar economic characteristics.     

Diffusion with variable production lead times

When there is not one obvious candidate technology, entrants to a new industry face a non-trivial choice between longer lead times in the setting up of production and a better chance that the technology could successfully deliver. This paper shows how this tradeoff may yield gradual diffusion. Diffusion is more protracted in industries where learning opportunities are more bountiful. The equilibrium minimizes the long-run equilibrium price, just as in the standard Marshallian model of a competitive industry. The market structure does not seem to affect the rate of diffusion with the monopoly choosing the same rate of diffusion that prevails in competition despite restricting output.      

Competition,strategic delegation and delay in technology adoption

This paper examines how strategic managerial delegation affects firms' timing of adoption of a new technology under different modes of product market competition. It demonstrates that strategic delegation has differential impacts on adoption dates under Cournot and Bertrand competitions. Strategic delegation with ‘own-performance’-based incentive schemes always leads to early adoption in markets with Bertrand competition compared to that under no-delegation, but not necessarily so in markets with Cournot competition. It also shows that under strategic delegation with ‘own-performance’-based incentive schemes, adoption occurs earlier (later) in markets with Cournot competition than in markets with Bertrand competition, if the degree of product differentiation is high (low). In contrast, under strategic delegation with ‘relative-performance’-based incentive schemes, adoption dates do not differ across markets with different modes of competition. It also analyses implications of firms' choice over types of managerial incentive schemes on the speed of diffusion of new technology.     

The Optimal Timing of Adoption of a Green Technology

We study the optimal timing of adoption of a cleaner technology and its effects on the rate of growth of an economy in the context of an AK endogenous growth model. We show that the results depend upon the behavior of the marginal utility of environmental quality with respect to consumption. When it is increasing, we derive the capital level at the optimal timing of adoption. We show that this capital threshold is independent of the initial conditions on the stock of capital, implying that capital-poor countries tend to take longer to adopt. Also, country-specific characteristics, as the existence of high barriers to adoption, may lead to different capital thresholds for different countries. If the marginal utility of environmental quality decreases with consumption, a country should never delay adoption; the optimal policy is either to adopt immediately or, if adoption costs are “too high”, to never adopt. The policy implications of these results are discussed in the context of the international debate surrounding the environmental political agenda.      

Predation and accumulation

This article incorporates the economic theory of predation into the theory of economic growth. The analytical framework is a general-equilibrium model of the interaction between two dynasties: a potential predator and its prey. We find that the rate of accumulation of capital and the security of property are positively related only for generations of the prey dynasty that tolerate predation. Generations of the prey dynasty that choose to deter predation, even though their property is perfectly secure, accumulate productive capital more slowly than the preceding generations that tolerated predation.     

Free trade, factor returns, and factor accumulation

A model of development is studied in which physical capital and unskilled labor are good substitutes, and skilled labor is complementary to the resulting aggregate. Growth in a closed economy is compared with two open regimes. Inflows of physical capital only reduce the interest rate and raise both wage rates. The skilled wage rises more sharply, however, increasing the skill premium and accelerating human capital accumulation. Full integration with a larger and more developed neighbor also reduces the interest rate and raises both wage rates, but in this case the skill premium falls and human capital accumulation changes very little.     

Technology adoption and LDC firms

In a duopoly framework we show that among the set of firms competing with the technology leader, both relatively advanced and relatively backward firms will not be likely adopters of the superior technology. Instead, the firms in the “middle” will invest for adopting the superior technology. This particularly characterizes the innovation characteristic of LDC markets where backward firms exist along with technology super-powers.     

中国农业技术进步的动力结构分析——基于2001-2015年省级面板数据的分析

农业的发展是多种因素共同作用的结果,本文通过超越对数生产函数的分解,将农业产出增长归结为技术进步效应和投入增加效应,前者又表示为资本深化、人力资本积累和经营规模扩大等技术进步动力的作用结果,以此探讨中国农业发展中技术进步的动力结构。发现劳均农机动力提升具有变弹性的作用,劳均固定资本投资和其他动力因素对产出的影响都为固定弹性的作用;虽然农业生产中人力资本的边际产出最高,但各农业主产区普遍面临人力资本紧缺的现象;农业经营规模具有系统性的技术促进作用,尤其对资本深化过程有明显促进作用。分地区的研究表明技术进步的动力结构具有地域特征,不仅资本深化的路径各有特点,且经营规模扩张的系统性作用也不尽相同。在促进农业技术进步的过程中,需要因地制宜。     

劳动力迁移、人力资本与农业技术进步分析

采用比较分析法和数据包络分析法（DEA）,分析了劳动力迁移、人力资本与农业技术进步之间的关系。认为劳动力迁移有利于劳动力人力资本水平的提高;农业技术效率在短期内受到物质资本投入、劳动力素质等因素的强性约束。长期来看,约束因子会不断放松;劳动力迁移对迁入地的农业技术进步是有贡献的。     

Capital accumulation of a firm facing an emissions tax

In this paper we consider the dynamic behavior of a firm that is subject to environmental regulation. It is assumed that, in order to prevent firms from polluting the environment excessively, the government imposes an emissions tax. We determine how an emissions tax influences the firm's decisions concerning investments and abatement efforts. In the model we incorporate the realistic property that a given abatement expenditure leads to more pollution reduction when pollution is large. This property implies increasing returns to scale with respect to pollution reduction. It turns out that, together with the usual assumption of decreasing returns to scale with respect to production, this property leads to the occurrence of history-dependent equilibria in case the pollution tax rate is sufficiently large. It is possible to derive an explicit formula for the threshold tax rate above which these history-dependent equilibria can occur. We show that an investment grant by the government can influence the firm so as to approach the equilibrium with a higher capital stock. Finally, we compare our results with those of a related model where the firm faces a strict pollution standard rather than an emissions tax. Among other things, we show that growth is more suppressed under a tax than under a standard when the firm is small.     

WTO规则与大国开放竞争的后发优势战略

尽管我们无法从国外引进尖端核心技术,但是可以引进中间技术,较快地提升我国的技术水平。自主创新能力是在技术引进和模仿的过程中通过边干边学逐渐培育起来的。受WTO规则的约束,韩国式保护主义的发展已无可能,只能实施开放竞争的发展战略。大国优势的存在,使得开放竞争不会导致依附性的发展。给民营企业公平竞争的待遇,创造一个激烈竞争的市场环境,是自主创新战略成功的关键。     

自助服务技术采纳的前因与模式:文献综述

通过系统梳理自助服务技术研究文献,总结了两类自助服务技术采纳前因——认知型前因和情感型前因,归纳出三种自助服务技术采纳模式——认知驱动模式、情感驱动模式及认知和情感综合驱动模式。研究表明:在自助服务技术采纳前因研究中,认知型前因所占比重很大,而情感型前因所占比重相对较小;三种采纳模式对自助服务技术采纳现象均起到了很好的理解和预测作用。最后,提出了自助服务技术采纳研究的发展方向。     

Endogenous human capital accumulation, comparative advantage and direct vs. indirect redistribution

Recently, several papers have reexamined the so-called production efficiency theorem and the Atkinson and Stiglitz theorem on commodity taxes in the optimal taxation literature. Naito [J. Public Econ. 71 (1999) 65] showed that indirect redistribution through production distortion or consumption distortion can Pareto-improve welfare and that the two theorems do not necessarily hold when different factors are imperfect substitutes and factor prices are endogenous. On the other hand, Saez J. Public Econ. (2002) forthcoming argued that in the long run, where human capital accumulation is endogenous, the two theorems are still valid. This paper develops reasonable alternative models where individuals accumulate human capital based on their comparative advantage. The present paper shows that the production efficiency theorem is not necessarily valid and that indirect redistribution from the able to the less able such as tariffs and production subsidies can increase efficiency even when skill accumulation is endogenous.     

Hiding in Plain Sight: A Note on Public Goods,Information Technology,and Productivity

This research note advances a conjecture that may help to explain the “paradox” of productivity and information technology (IT). Conventional measures of the economic output of the IT sector may substantially understate the actual value of IT because software is a public good, which is largely unpriced. I provide a simple exploratory calculation that lends plausibility to this explanation. I hope that this conjecture may inspire research by those with greater expertise in the evolution of software.     

Bank structure, capital accumulation and growth: a simple macroeconomic model

Summary. This paper analyzes the equilibrium growth paths of two economies that are identical in all respects, except for the organization of their financial systems: in particular, one has a competitive banking system and the other has a monopolistic banking system. In addition, the sources of inefficiencies, as a result of monopoly banking, and their relationship to the existence of credit rationing are explored. Monopoly in banking tends to depress the equilibrium law of motion for the capital stock for either of two reasons. When credit rationing exists, monopoly banks ration credit more heavily than competitive banks. When credit is not rationed, the existence of monopoly banking leads to excessive monitoring of credit financed investment. Both of these have adverse consequences for capital accumulation. In addition, monopoly banking is more likely to lead to credit rationing than is competitive banking. Finally, the scope for development trap phenomena to arise is considered under both a competitive and a monopolistic banking system. Received: September 20, 1999; revised version: December 3, 1999     

技术进步、资本积累对劳动力就业影响的理论分析

构建一个动态一般均衡模型,讨论了城乡分离和城乡融合的条件下劳动力就业是如何受制于技术进步和资本积累的。研究发现:在城乡分离的状态下,若不存在技术进步,则农业就业比重不会持续下降,而是维持在一个稳定状态;当出现技术进步时,更多的劳动力就业将使经济进入一个高水平的动态过程;在城乡融合的状态下,若加速的资本积累未匹配正的就业增长率,则经济将被导入一个低水平的动态过程中。     

Foreign capital and technology transfer in a dynamic model

We consider a dynamic three-sector dual-economy model when the technology transfer takes place from the foreign enclave to the labor-intensive domestic enclave. The long-run equilibrium and the comparative steady-state effects are analyzed. It is shown that the policy of subsidization to the foreign enclave may satisfy the conflicting tasks of raising national income and lowering unemployment simulataneously in the long run. Subsidization to a domestic enclave does not satisfy both the objectives.     

ICT adoption and income diversification among rural households in China

ABSTRACT

Although the determinants of income diversification have been widely examined in the literature, little is known about whether and how information and communication technology (ICT) adoption affects household income diversification. To fill in this gap, this paper examines the impact of ICT adoption on income diversification among rural households in China, utilizing open-access data collected through the China Labour-force Dynamics Survey project. We employ a two-stage treatment effects model to address the potential selection bias issue associated with ICT adoption. The empirical results show that ICT adoption exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on income diversification. Further analyses reveal that ICT adoption is more beneficial to low-income rural households and those residing in eastern and central parts of China when it plays a role in diversifying rural income. Our findings suggest that improving rural education and infrastructure such as roads and broadband facilities can help enhance ICT adoption among rural households, which subsequently increases income diversification.     

Inflation and capital accumulation in an OLG model with money in the production function

This article analyses the consequences of the money supply growth rate on capital intensity and economic growth in an overlapping-generations model with real balances entering the production function. Within this theoretical framework, anticipated inflation generates an ambiguous effect on capital–labour ratio, because two forces work simultaneously in opposite directions: one driving towards a pure Tobin effect (due to the OLG demographic structure of the economy) and the other pushing down the capital stock (due to the productive role of real balances). Despite the unclear effects exerted on capital intensity, higher monetary growth rates unambiguously reduce real money demand, consumption, total wealth and welfare.     

Macroeconomic Policy and Ownership Structure in a Mixed Transition Economy

Both state and non-state sectors have important roles in the Chinese economy. A dynamic model to analyze capital accumulation in state and non-state sectors is constructed and the fiscal and monetary policy requirements for the coexistence of a state sector and a non-state sector are derived. Our findings suggest that the effects of fiscal and monetary policies on ownership structure depend on which government subsidization policy is implemented. The results indicate that lowering tax rates and tightening the money supply can speed up the transition pace, but these policies do not necessarily contribute to developing an economy with a greater share for the non-state sector.J. Comp. Econom., December 2000, 28(4), pp. 762–785. College of Economics, Osaka Prefecture University, 1-1, Gakuen-Cho, Sakai, Osaka 599-8531, Japan.