贸易自由化对就业的影响——来自第三产业和个体私营企业的数据

大部分研究贸易对就业影响的中文文献关注的均是制造业行业,忽视了贸易对第三产业就业的影响,同时所采用的制造业行业数据中也没有包含私营和个体企业的就业人数,因此也忽略了贸易对私营和个体企业就业的影响。本文利用1998-2007年中国的省际分行业数据,采用联立方程组模型,研究了贸易自由化对第三产业就业和个体、私营企业就业的影响。研究结果显示,虽然服务业贸易占贸易和服务业产值的比重很小,对就业的直接影响不大,但是贸易自由化可以通过拉动经济增长有效促进第三产业就业,特别是对零售、仓储、建筑、居民服务、餐饮、住宿、电力煤气和水的供应这些行业的作用尤为明显。同时,贸易自由化程度的加深对制造业行业和第三产业的个体、私营性质企业的就业促进作用也很显著。     

Competing Industrial Standards and the Impact of Trade Liberalization

The main purpose of this study is to illustrate, with simple trade theory, the relationship between competing industrial standards and trade liberalization. We assume that there are two competing industrial standards in an international context, each of which applies to a group of differentiated products. A product can be used only in combination with other products based on the same industrial standard. We examine the impact of trade liberalization (i.e., a decline in trade costs) on consumers’ choice of a standard. It will be shown that the degree of indirect network effects, captured with substitution between differentiated products, plays an important role as a determinant of the impact of trade liberalization.     

Impediments to Exports in Small Transition Economies: The Case of Bulgaria

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Environmental Protection and Trade Liberalization in a Small Open Dual Economy

The author investigates the conditions under which environmental protection and trade liberalization might improve urban unemployment and welfare in a small open Harris–Todaro model with polluting urban manufacturing. While a tariff reduction decreases manufacturing employment, a rise in the pollution tax rate may increase it when a dirty input is complementary to capital. Environmental protection and trade liberalization are consistent in reducing the level of urban unemployment because they lower it under the same condition. They are consistent in increasing GDP if a rise in the pollution tax rate decreases manufacturing employment. Otherwise, trade liberalization will mitigate a decrease in GDP because of environmental protection if the degree of urbanization is low and if rural technology exhibits weak diminishing returns to labor. This GDP effect plays a central role in welfare improvement.     

中间品贸易自由化与中国制造业企业生产技术选择

本文在异质性企业分析框架下,构建了贸易自由化下中间品进口与企业技术选择的理论模型,分析了中间品贸易自由化对企业技术选择的影响机理,并利用2000—2006年中国制造业企业数据考察了中间品贸易自由化对中国制造业企业技术选择的影响。实证结果表明,入世后,中间品贸易自由化显著促进了中国制造业出口企业应用高技术。进一步考虑企业生产率差异性时,发现这种促进作用与企业的初始生产率水平有关,仅仅显著促进中等生产率的企业进行技术升级。另外,中间品贸易自由化对技术密集型出口企业技术升级的促进作用最强,对劳动密集型出口企业技术选择的影响最弱。     

Trade Structure and Trade liberalization: The emerging pattern between the EU and Transition Economies

The purpose of this study is to find empirical evidence for the assumption that trade liberalization unlocks the potential of the Transition Economies (TEs) to achieve technological upgrading, productivity progress and catching-up (in terms of income). The study examines the trade structure now emerging between the European Union (EU) and the TEs in the light of two sets of differently liberalized trade items identified by the European Agreements. The aim is to determine whether trade liberalization has helped to supersede the structures – reflected mainly in the low quality of products – inherited by the TEs from the command economy. The empirical results are interpreted in the light of the Flam-Helpman quality-cycle model. We find evidence of an ongoing division of labor between high quality products (EU) and low quality products (TEs) according to a cycle. The first stage comprises the already well established dominance of quality advantage products by EU countries producing and exporting high-quality products, which crowd out the TEs' production of similar products. The second stage is the exploitation of cost-advantages by TEs in less liberalized trade, and there they appear to achieve better results. All these results may be taken as support for an active government in TEs.     

Trade Structure, Transboundary Pollution and Multilateral Trade Liberalization: The Effects on Environmental Taxes and Welfare

This paper considers a trade situation where the production activities of potentially heterogeneous countries generate pollution which can cross borders and harm the well-being of all the countries involved. In each of those countries the policy maker levies pollution taxes on the polluting firms and a tariff on imports in order to correct that distortion. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the effect of a reduction in the tariff on equilibrium pollution taxes and welfare. The existing literature has investigated this problem for trade between two identical countries. This paper analyzes the problem in the more realistic context where countries are not necessarily identical and trade can be multilateral. It becomes possible to show what bias is introduced when those two realities are neglected. I find that a tariff reduction can actually lower output; it can also lower welfare even if pollution is purely local.     

The Effects of Trade Liberalization in a Vertical Structure

Despite the importance of international trade on intermediate goods, the literature did not pay much attention to this aspect in determining the effects of trade liberalization in the presence of a labor union. We take up this issue here and show the effects of trade liberalization on the final goods and/or the intermediate goods, where the domestic firm pays unionized wage and imports intermediate goods. We show that trade liberalization on the intermediate goods (final goods) increases (decreases) the unionized wage, labor union's utility and domestic profit. Trade liberalization on both the final goods and intermediate goods may either increase or decrease the domestic unionized wage, labor union's utility and domestic profit depending on the input coefficients and the initial tariff levels. Our qualitative results are robust with respect to the intermediate goods market structure, the pricing strategy of the intermediate goods producers and the union's objective function.     

An Estimation of the Impact of Oil Shocks on Crude Oil Exporting Economies and Their Trade Partners

This research evaluates the impact of oil price shocks on oil producing and consuming economies; we used a simultaneous equation framework for different countries with business relations. As expected, we found that oil-producers (here, Iran and Russia) benefit from oil price shocks. However contrary to previous findings, they also benefit from the indirect effect through their trade partners. For oil-consuming economies, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output falls in response to an oil price shock, while some others seem to be relatively immune. Generally, those countries which trade more with oil producers gain indirect benefits via higher demand from oil-producers. For instance, the Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, the US, the UK, and China get a negative direct effect and positive indirect effect from oil producing countries. This is exactly the result that we anticipated. India has both negative effects directly and indirectly and seems to suffer more in a positive oil price shock. For Japan, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey the results are reversed. They benefit from an oil shock directly and indirectly.     

Trade Liberalization and the Profitability of Domestic Mergers

It is often thought that a tariff reduction, by opening‐up the domestic market to foreign firms, should lessen the need for a policy aimed at discouraging domestic mergers. This implicitly assumes that the tariff in question is sufficiently high to prevent foreign firms from selling in the domestic market. However, not all tariffs are prohibitive, so that foreign firms may be present in the domestic market before it is abolished. Furthermore, even if the tariff is prohibitive, a merger of domestic firms may render it nonprohibitive, thus inviting foreign firms to penetrate the domestic market. Using a simple example, the authors show that, in the latter two cases, abolishing the tariff may in fact make the domestic merger more profitable. Hence trade liberalization will not necessarily reduce the profitability of domestic mergers.     

Inter-Regional Migration in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland

In this paper, we modify the Harris–Todaro model of migration to incorporate the impact of human capital, housing stock, and the availability of publicly provided goods such as healthcare and road provision in order to analyze the determinants of migration in different regions of Poland. We apply the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equation (SURE) model to investigate the data. Our results show that GDP per capita, unemployment, and distance have a strong effect on regional migration in Poland. Human capital is also an important explanatory factor as is the provision of key publicly provided facilities such as roads. The lack of housing in Poland is important in explaining the low levels of internal migration.     

自然人暂时流动与服务贸易自由化

自然人暂时流动(TMNP,服务贸易提供模式4)的自由化可以带来巨额收益,各国应把TMNP的承诺重点从高技术服务提供人员向低技术人员进行转移,并且切断与商业存在的联系.TMNP的谈判主要聚焦于三种流动类型,而其中发达国家的主要担忧与进口劳动密集型商品所遇到的情况一致,这已证实可通过政策的作用得以克服.目前推进TMNP的自由化可以通过以下两种途径:一是降低TMNP的主要壁垒;二是要改善多边谈判的承诺机制,如"交叉互惠"承诺方法的采用.     

External Economies in the International Trade Theory: A Survey

The paper surveys the international trade literature on intraindustrial and interindustrial production externalities. It places particular emphasis upon the literature on variable returns to scale (VRS) developed along the Kemp line that the externalities are output–generated, and the economies of scale are external (internal) to individual firms (industry). The discussion touches upon the literature examining the implications of VRS for fundamental trade theorems, trade policies, economic growth, and welfare. The paper extends the survey to writings on the Meade–type interindustrial production externalities.     

农产品贸易自由化对中国农业的影响及对策

长期以来,农产品贸易一直游离于世界多边贸易体制的管理和约束之外,乌拉圭回合将农产品贸易全面纳入到世界多边贸易体制的有效管理之中,达成了《农业协定》。按照《农业协定》的框架要求,未来农产品贸易将逐步自由化。贸易自由化给将中国农业带来深刻影响。中国需不断调整农业发展战略和对策,促进中国农业经济在农产品贸易自由化条件下快速发展。     

服务贸易自由化与中国应对策略的探析

服务贸易自由化是在服务贸易重要性显现以及全球经济一体化背景下提出的。随着国际服务贸易发展程度的深化,全球经济一体化进程的加快,以及《服务贸易总协定》的签订,服务贸易自由化可谓是大势所趋。这必将对世界各国服务贸易的发展和政府经济政策的制定产生众多深远的影响。服务贸易自由化既具有积极的经济效应,又具有一定的负面效应。作为既是发展中国家也是WTO成员方的中国,服务贸易自由化对我们来说是机遇也是挑战。我们必须要在这一趋势下认清中国服务贸易发展的现状,抓住机遇,并勇于迎接挑战,制定符合中国实际的应对策略,提高中国服务贸易的竞争力。     

Trade Liberalization and the Degree of Competition in International Duopoly

This paper analyzes how a reduction in trade costs influences the possibility for firms to engage in international cartels, and hence how trade liberalization affects the degree of competition. We consider a particular intra‐industry trade model amended to allow for firms producing differentiated products. Our main finding is that trade liberalization may have an anti‐competitive effect. We find that there is no unique relation between a reduction in trade costs and the degree of competition. When products are differentiated, a lowering of trade costs is pro‐competitive if trade costs are initially high, but anti‐competitive if trade costs initially are low. Hence, trade policy is not necessarily a substitute for competition policy.     

Trade Liberalization and the Efficiency of Firms in Indian Manufacturing

Has the efficiency of firms in India improved since its liberalization in 1991? The authors attempt to answer this question by analyzing the determinants of firm‐level efficiency in six manufacturing sectors in India while focusing on the effects of liberalization and domestic competition. They find that there was an increase in overall efficiency in the post‐reform period in India in five out of the six sectors. While imports do not seem to improve efficiency, liberalization did increase efficiency in four of the sectors.     

The Effects of Trade Liberalization between Heterogeneous Countries on Endogenous Mergers

This paper examines the effects of trade liberalization on merger behavior. We endogenize merger choice among owners in an oligopolistic industry in asymmetric countries to analyze the consequences of trade cost reductions on competitiveness and welfare. In this context, the non‐cooperative game supports asymmetric market structures. We also find that trade liberalization is not necessarily pro‐competitive in countries with the competitive advantage, even if trade costs are completely abolished. Moreover, the tariff‐jumping explanation of international mergers does not necessarily apply. The welfare analysis shows that merger behavior can significantly alter any gains from liberalization. Countries should consider enforcing competition in regional agreements. Specifically, to avoid a reduction in domestic welfare following trade‐liberalizing reductions in trade costs, a high‐cost country's optimal policy may be to ban international mergers.