Classification of Growth Clubs and Convergence： Evidence from Panel Data in China, 1981-2004

This paper uses provincial panel data to examine club convergence in China during 1981–2004. We estimate the province‐specific initial technology level, A(0), and classify the Chinese economy into “developed club” and “underdeveloped club” based on the economic characteristics of A(0), instead of on geographical location. We find significant evidence of conditional convergence across provinces, and that the convergence speed in the developed club is faster than that in the underdeveloped club. We also find that: (i) human capital accumulation contributes more than physical capital does to club convergence; (ii) there is a positive correlation between infrastructure and growth convergence at the national level and within the developed club, while the spillover effect of infrastructure has not been developed in the developing club; and (iii) the effect of economic openness on convergence is tiny, and insignificant across and within clubs.     

Human capital dynamics in China: Evidence from a club convergence approach

This paper investigates the evolution of human capital in China for 31 provinces over the period of 1985–2016 from a club convergence perspective. Per capita human capital stocks, estimated using the Jorgenson–Fraumeni lifetime income approach, are for the first time examined within a non-linear latent factor framework that allows to model a wide range of transition dynamics for each province along the path to convergence. The study finds no overall convergence between provinces in China, however, the results strongly support the existence of multiple convergence clubs. While a small group of provinces are converging toward the highest levels of human capital, most of the other provinces are failing to catch up and form separate clusters that converge to lower equilibria. These regional patterns provide new evidence on the increasing human capital gap between Chinese provinces, posing a significant challenge to a more inclusive and harmonious human and economic development.     

Economic Freedom and Migration Flows between U.S. States

A modified gravity model is estimated using a cross section of data drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau survey of 2000 in order to analyze the impact of economic freedom on gross migration flows among the lower 48 states. Spatial econometric methods are utilized in order to capture spatial effects not detected by distance. In addition, the Economic Freedom of North America Index is decomposed to determine the individual impact of various policies. Results show that states with higher relative economic freedom experience greater migration inflow through its direct impact on income and employment growth. In aggregate, the findings indicate that individuals migrate toward states with relatively higher government consumption expenditures, relatively lower tax burdens, and states with more freedom with respect to labor decisions in the form of less restrictive minimum wages, less concentration of unions, and less dependence on public employment.     

中国地区增长是否存在收敛?——随机框架下的再讨论

针对单个面板单位根检验结果具有多种可能含义的问题,本文基于多种面板单位根检验方法以及验证分析(confirmatory analysis)的思路,对改革开放以来我国各地区经济增长的随机收敛特性进行了再检验。结果发现,全国范围内并不存在全局性的随机收敛,借助序贯分类方法,我们发现相对于全国水平的随机收敛只出现在六个省区。进一步检验也未发现存在俱乐部式随机收敛的证据。发展失衡已经成为我国地区经济增长的显著特征,推动地区发展重回均衡应成为经济政策的重要核心。本文研究还表明在对面板单位根检验结果进行解释时需要谨慎。     

Economic Freedom and Exercise: Evidence from State Outcomes

Exercise is an important part of a healthy lifestyle and influences a variety of health outcomes. Regions vary in their levels of exercise due to geography, climate, culture, and policy. The extent to which a country's policies are consistent with economic freedom has been found to be positively associated with greater participation in physical activity. We empirically investigate the relationship between economic freedom and exercise across U.S. states. Contrary to the cross-country results, we find that states with higher levels of economic freedom have lower rates of participation in exercise.     

Convergence Triggers in Africa: Evidence from Convergence Clubs and Panel Models

This paper investigates the formation of convergence clubs and examines the drivers of growth convergence in Africa by accounting for individual heterogenous effects and establishing transitional paths. We particularly employ the sophisticated log t test to identify underlying convergence clubs and use LSDVC as a benchmark model for analysing the drivers of convergence. We also apply the System Generalized method of moments (GMM) model for sensitivity purposes. Our results reveal four core convergence clubs; seemingly characterised by the measures of institutional stability with distinct transitional paths. We consequently highlight the importance of initial conditions, human capital and institutions in the formation of convergence clubs. Thus, the paper provides insights into the adoption of differentiated development policies consistent with the specific conditions of African countries with the integration agenda driven by accelerated levels of human capital development and technological progress.     

Opening up,Market Reform,and Convergence Clubs in China*

This paper evaluates the relationship between initial government policies and the emergence of convergence clubs in post‐reform China. We test the structural stability of a global convergence equation using China's provincial data over the period 1985–2000. We find that the provinces cluster around two basins of attraction defined by initial opening‐up. Domestic market reform exerts a positive and significant influence on provincial economic growth but has no threshold effect. The two convergence clubs exhibit strikingly different growth behaviors, suggesting that the roles of some growth‐promoting factors, such as human capital and infrastructure, depend on whether an openness threshold is passed.     

长三角地区县域经济发展差异及其动态收敛研究

文章以长三角地区60个县（不包括区）1998—2009年间的人均GDP数据为基础,首先采用标准差系数和锡尔系数分析该地区内县域经济发展差异水平现状,然后根据经济增长收敛理论进一步对其动态收敛趋势进行实证分析。研究结果表明,长三角地区县域经济差异在1998—2009年间逐渐增大,并且基本不存在动态收敛的趋势,仅部分地区内县域经济存在俱乐部收敛。根据研究结果提出了初步的政策建议。     

Convergence in Revealed Preferences for Automobiles as Differentiated Goods: U.S. and OECD Countries: 1970–1999

Attributes of differentiated goods in personal consumption have both conceptual and policy importance in macroeconomic applications that include obsolescence rates of capital stock, the savings rate, and environmental issues. While there is both direct and indirect evidence of variation in preferences for these attributes across countries, there is also conjecture that recent global integration has reduced this variation. We examine convergence between the U.S. and four OECD countries in the levels of automobile attributes over the 1970–1999 period. Results of panel unit root tests with the U.S. as the comparison country showed convergence in the constructed measures of size, performance and efficiency. In pairwise comparisons between the U.S. and OECD countries, results of our model estimations indicated convergence in size and efficiency with estimated half lives to convergence of between four to six years. Disaggregating the definitional components of performance, results show convergence in horsepower when selected economic variables are controlled. We find that measures of trade, per capita income and price appear to be among the mechanisms through which increasing global integration relates to convergence. Directions for further study of convergence preferences for attribute profiles across countries are discussed.     

Convergence (divergence) and the U.S. states

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether established trends in labor productivity convergence have continued among the contiguous states of the U.S. from 1969 to 1990. This paper brings new and additional state data to bear on the question of productivity convergence among the U.S. states. The findings indicate that when the state value-added is deflated by the state-specific price deflator, a dramatically different picture of productivity convergence emerges. The study also finds that there is less evidence of state productivity convergence once the peculiar behavior of mining or extraction industries is taken into account.     

节水农业综合效益价值差异评估——基于甘肃省数据研究

文章基于改进的AHP分析法,通过Delphi法确定指标权重并进行加权修正,均值化方法对指标数据进行无量纲化处理,利用甘肃省2005-2012年节水农业投入产出指标数据,对甘肃省节水农业建设产生的经济效益、生态效益和社会效益等的价值以及各效益间差异收敛性进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:2005-2012年甘肃省节水农业综合效益价值呈逐年较快线性增长趋势;经济效益价值、生态效益价值和社会效益价值间收敛性变化差异明显,其中,经济效益价值与社会效益价值间呈现较强的"U型"效应趋势,具有强离散性,经济效益价值与生态效益价值间呈现显著的"W型"效应趋势,中长期内收敛性弱化,而生态效益价值与社会效益价值效应趋势呈显著的"倒U型",中长期内收敛性显著。     

Unit Root Tests,Persistence, and the Unemployment Rate of the U.S. States

In this paper, we investigate the existence of infrequent shocks and the degree of persistence of U.S. state unemployment over the period 1976-2004. We first apply individual Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests and fail to reject the hysteresis hypothesis in forty states. When two changes in level are incorporated, we again fail to reject the hysteresis hypothesis in forty states. Since individual unit root tests normally lack power, we employ the recently developed panel LM unit root tests with up to two changes in level. Only in this case are we able to reject the joint unit root hypothesis in favor of regime stationarity. Computation of half-lives through impulse-response functions indicates the high degree of persistence of U.S. state unemployment. These results contrast with the common belief among scholars that U.S. state unemployment is closer to the natural rate paradigm than to the hysteresis paradigm.     

The role of the Chinese economy in the world economy: A U.S. perspective

In this paper I first review the amazing progress that free market economic reforms have brought to the Chinese people after years of central control and suppression of markets. Thanks to greater economic freedom, economic growth increased sharply and hundreds of millions of people have been removed from poverty. By all accounts, however, economic freedom in China has a long way to go. The U.S. perspective should be that these market reforms continue. These further reforms toward economic freedom and economic growth in China will be beneficial to the United States. Such reforms would include a greater transparency about the monetary policy strategies, more openness of the capital accounts and less exchange rate and stock market intervention. Such economic reforms should be welcomed and encouraged by the United States and other countries.     

The Impact of Research and Development on Economic Growth and Productivity in the U.S. States

Research and development (R&D) has a large effect on both state output and total factor productivity in the long run. Our estimates for the private sector of the U.S. states from 1963 to 2007 show that the R&D elasticity averages 0.056–0.143. The implied returns to state Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from R&D spending are 82–211%. There are also positive R&D spillovers, with 70–80% of the total returns accruing to other states. We also find that states with more human capital have higher own‐ and other‐R&D elasticities, and those in lowest tier of economic development have the least own‐state R&D elasticity but the highest other‐R&D elasticity. In addition, we find that the positive effect of R&D spillovers across states is larger when we consider R&D spillovers across states based on economic similarity of R&D across sectors.     

中国区域俱乐部收敛的形成与变化——基于参数与非参数估计的研究

很多研究者认为1978年以来中国东部与中西部的发展差距可以用俱乐部收敛假说解释,由于文章利用参数和非参数估计方法对1978—2005年中国区域经济俱乐部收敛性进行检验时发现,20世纪90年代中期曾经出现了俱乐部收敛的特征,但最近几年趋于消失,所以在统筹区域发展时对俱乐部收敛特征的新变化要引起重视。     

Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns

We apply a modified "gravity model" incorporating measures of factor endowments to analyze Japanese and U.S. bilateral trade flows and direct foreign investment positions with a sample of around 100 countries for the period 1985–1990. Country features that our analysis takes into account are population, income, the land–labor ratio, the average level of education, and region. We find that features of a country associated with more trade with either Japan or the United States also tend to be associated with more direct foreign investment (DFI) from Japan or the United States. U.S. economic relations with Japan and Western Europe provide an important exception. Despite U.S. concern about its trade deficit with Japan, we find Japan to be much more open to the United States, not only as a source of imports, but also as a destination for U.S. exports than most countries in Western Europe. Taking other factors into account, however, Western Europe is more open to U.S. direct foreign investment. We also find that a country′s level of education tends to increase significantly U.S. interaction of all types with that country, even after correcting for per capita income. Education does not play a significant role in Japanese trade patterns. As factor endowment theory would predict, the United States tends to trade more with densely populated countries, while Japan tends to import more from sparsely populated countries. Even after taking into account population, income, factor endowments, and region, there is a substantial degree of "bilateralism" in Japanese and U.S. economic relationships in that the residual correlation among exports, imports, and outward direct foreign investment is much larger than would be the case if these magnitudes were independent across countries. J. Japan. Int. Econ. December 1994, 8(4), pp. 478–510. Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215; and National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138.     

Economic freedom and migration: A metro area-level analysis

We examine the determinants of intra-U.S. population migration at the metropolitan area level (MSA), with an emphasis on the presence of policies that are consistent with economic freedom. We are the first to produce a multivariate regression analysis of migration and economic freedom at the local level. Combining a 1993–2014 unbalanced panel of MSA-to-MSA migration data from the Internal Revenue Service with a new economic freedom index for U.S. metropolitan areas, we find that a 10% increase in economic freedom of a destination MSA, relative to the economic freedom of an origin MSA, was associated with a 27.4% increase in net migration from the origin MSA to the destination MSA. If we use mean net migration flows as a benchmark, we would expect a 10% increase in relative economic freedom to increase net migration to the destination MSA by 22 workers per year from each other MSA.     

The Contribution of Associate's Degree Holders to U.S. Earnings,Labor Quality,Productivity, and Overall Economic Growth

There is substantial evidence on the importance of education as a driver of earnings, productivity, and economic growth. However, knowledge of the specific role of associate's degrees in U.S. economic growth is limited. We analyze the sources of U.S. economic growth and identify the contribution of associate's degree holders to improvements in earnings, labor quality, productivity, and overall economic growth. We find evidence that substitution toward workers with associate's degrees has increased U.S. earnings, aggregate labor quality, and productivity, and that these effects are concentrated in the health care, trade, and government sectors. While the average educational attainment of people entering the labor force has plateaued, our results suggest that shifting workers from some college to associate degrees could improve earnings, the quality of the workforce, productivity, and growth, potentially without more time spent in school.     

论CBA俱乐部的投入与收益

运用文献资料、数据分析等方法,对CBA俱乐部的经营效益进行分析,结果发现：目前CBA各篮球俱乐部投入巨大,但盈利效应不明显,对CBA联赛乃至俱乐部的长期发展存在阻碍。这种现象：一方面,说明CBA管理层尚未完全实施市场化运作;另一方面,说明CBA各俱乐部在强化成绩的同时,弱化了俱乐部的经营。就俱乐部的效益进行分析,旨在规范CBA联赛走职业化、市场化道路,使之能健康、平稳的发展。     

A new study of the Chinese regions in a neoclassical framework of models of growth

This study tests economic growth and convergence across the Chinese provinces during the period 1981–2005 based on augmented neoclassical growth models where land is included as a production input. A positive steady-state growth of per capita output cannot be sustained if the population growth rate or the output elasticity of land is sufficiently high. The study implements a panel data approach and shows that land may have an output elasticity as high as 1/3, suggesting that the natural environment indeed poses an important constraint on China's economic growth. In this study of the Chinese provinces, the panel data approach has implied much higher rates of conditional convergence in per capita output, compared with cross-section estimations.