实证经济学与规范经济学: 科学标准的辨析

经济学研究中的实证方法和规范方法的运用历来都存在争议.文章在对实证经济学和规范经济学区分的缘起、内容和产生后果的分析基础上,对经济学的"科学性"标准进行了较详细的分析,对经济学研究中忽视甚至无视价值判断等一系列规范性问题带来的严重后果进行了阐述.文章认为,经济学作为社会科学,规范方法的运用是不可避免的,这是由经济学本身的学科属性决定的.实证主义经济学和规范主义经济学之间并没有不可逾越的鸿沟.     

Optimal redistribution with unobservable disability: Welfarist versus non-welfarist social objectives

This paper examines the optimal non-linear income and commodity tax when the same labor disutility can receive two alternative interpretations, taste for leisure or disability, but the disability is not readily observable. We compare the optimal policy under alternative social objectives, welfarist and non-welfarist, and conclude that the non-welfarist objective, in which the planner gives a higher weight to the disutility of labor of the disabled individuals, is the only reasonable specification. It has some foundation in the theory of responsibility; further, unlike the other specifications it yields an optimal solution that may involve a lower labor supply requirement from disabled individuals.     

Privatization: public offerings and political objectives

This paper empirically analyses the political and economic objectives underlying privatization on the stock market. Particularly, the factors of SIPs underpricing, are explained, and the study analyses whether the change of political parties in government play a role on the issue. The paper has two main findings. First, larger initial returns occurred in the early stages of privatization. Second, the change of government from left-wing to right-wing did not lead to significantly higher levels of underpricing. The results show that governments are quite pragmatic with respect to underpricing: maximizing proceeds from SIPs shows to be more important than ideological differences between parties in government.     

The political economy of deregulation: The case of intrastate long distance

Observed variation in the decisions of state regulators to deregulate AT&T in the provision of intrastate interLATA telecommunications services provides useful data with which to test the economic theory of regulation against its principal alternative—the public interest theory. An empirical model of the decision to deregulate is specified and estimated. Our results lend empirical support to the economic theory of regulation and fail to support the public interest theory. The results also help to explain the lethargic pace of deregulation of this industry.     

Effects of deregulation on failing thrift institutions

The purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis that much of the decline in the net worth of the failing saving and loan institutions was a result of deregulation. Variables are developed to represent major actions to deregulate S&Ls activities and to measure the impacts on institutions' net worth. A mixed cross-section&z.urule;time series analysis is developed to estimate the effects of financial deregulation on failing thrifts' net worth. The data are 1984-89 balance sheet adn income statement data for thrift institutions, prior to the enactment of the 1989 legislation to solve the crisis. The reuslts of the analysis indicate that deregulation of asset and deposit activities was not the cause of the financial distress of failing US thrift institutions. The primary cause appears to be the increase in the federal deposit insurance limit to $100 000 and how attractive this legislative action made brokering deposits that became insured up to $100 000.     

Malmquist indices of productivity change in Portuguese banking: The deregulation period

This paper will evaluate productivity change in Portuguese banking using the Malmquist productivity index. The results show that between 1990 and 1997, banks in Portugal witnessed increased productivity and strong technological progress. Both small and large banks experienced higher productivity and technological change scores, while mid-sized institutions are putting more effort into catching-up policies. Rural banks have experienced strong productivity growth and are catching up with the best practices but lower levels of technological change. Urban banks show higher productivity growth and technological change levels. Government-owned banks have experienced lower levels of productivity change. Finally, the asset per employee ratio shows a positive correlation with the productivity scores, suggesting that this simple index is a good proxy for productivity.     

The regulation of audiovisual content: quotas and conflicting objectives

Governments use a range of instruments to influence television content. The paper finds that under plausible conditions, content measures ostensibly designed to increase the production of certain programs may, paradoxically, reduce the size of the audience watching them. As well, quotas seemingly intended to boost the audience of certain programs, may in fact reduce their production and lower the number of viewers of these programs.      

区域经济合作:战略目标与模式选择

区域经济合作与经济全球化并驾齐驱，已经成为一个不可抗拒的潮流，并对国际贸易和世界经济产生了巨大而深刻的影响。据日本贸易振兴会统计，世界上现有地区贸易协定194个，已经生效的有107个，其中1/3是1990—1994年间建立的，绝大多数国家都参加了一个或几个区域经济合作组织。随着区域经济合作组织规模的不断扩大，它对国际贸易和世界经济的影响也日趋明显。据世界贸易组织统计，1980—2000年间，主要区域经济合作组织的国际贸易整体实力明显增强，绝大数区域经济合作组织的年均出口增长率都高于世界平均水平。（见表1）。区域经济合作的…     

The NAIRU reconsidered: why labour market deregulation may raise unemployment

According to the mainstream theory of equilibrium unemployment, persistent unemployment is caused mainly by ‘excessive’ labour market regulation, whereas aggregate demand, capital accumulation and technological progress have no lasting effect on unemployment. We show that the mainstream non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) model is a special case of a general model of equilibrium unemployment, in which aggregate demand, investment and endogenous technological progress do have long‐term effects. It follows that labour market deregulation does not necessarily reduce steady‐inflation unemployment. Theoretically, if the decline in real wage growth claims owing to deregulation is smaller than the ensuing decline in labour productivity growth and in the warranted real wage growth, then in that case steady‐inflation unemployment may increase. Empirical evidence for 20 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries (1984–1997) indicates that the impact of labour market deregulation on OECD unemployment is zero, and possibly negative (causing a higher rate of unemployment).     

Effects of securities deregulation in underwriting: An Analysis of SEC Rule 415

In this paper we present evidence on the effects of Rule 415, the SEC Rule that relaxed the SEC's long-standing opposition to delayed offerings. Shelf registration allows securities to be offered on a continuous or delayed basis in certain circumstances. We provide evidence on one aspect of the controversy surrounding Rule 415's adoption: the effect of shelf registration on the distribution of underwriting revenues among broker/dealers. We find on average all broker/dealers experienced an increase in underwriting revenues following the adoption of shelf registration due to an increase in total business financing. However, we find that the largest underwriters experienced an increase in underwriting revenues relative to total business financing. The relationship for smaller broker/dealers between underwriting revenues and total business financing did not change significantly after the adoption of shelf registration. Thus, shelf registration appears not do have harmed small broker/dealers.     

The economics of deregulation of local exchange telecommunications

This paper has two objectives. The first is to reappraise the potential competitiveness of local exchange telecommunications markets, in light of recent arguments in favor of deregulation. The second objective is to discuss regulatory reform strategies. We conclude that local telecommunications markets retain the essential characteristics of a natural monopoly, but that many of the regulatory reforms are nevertheless desirable.     

The deregulation of international trucking in the European Union: form and effect

We describe the regulatory regime under which international trucking operated in Western Europe until the mid-1980s, the deregulatory process that followed, and the effect of this deregulation. We find that deregulation had a large positive effect on the growth of international trucking. We also find that shippers shifted toward more outsourcing of their trucking needs, but this occurred to an even greater extent in local and national road transport. We conclude that other factors beside the deregulation of international trucking affected the organization of the industry at the time. Finally, despite concerns voiced by member countries, we find no evidence that deregulation disproportionately favored carriers of countries that were initially more (or less) involved in international trucking, nor that it has favored low-wage countries.      

Political economy of a public corporation: Pricing objectives of BART

The revealed preference approach is used to identify the objectives implicit in the fare structure of a rail mass transit system. A model assuming bureaucratic aggrandizement provided a better predictor of actual fares than a majority rule or interest group political model. Bureaucratic objectives work to the advantage of commuters from distant suburbs who are relatively wealthy and young. The data is too weak to support firm conviction about these conclusions, but our methods contribute to quantitative political economy.     

Capital markets' assessment of airline restructuring following deregulation

The Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 propelled the industry into a constant state of change, even turmoil, that prevails 14 years later. The purpose of this paper is to examine the capital markets' reactions to the dramatic restructuring of the airline industry. The results of an event study of 24 merger announcements indicates that stockholders of target firms experience positive abnormal returns of 14.5% over a three-day period around the merger announcement date. Bidding firms experience a 3.7% increase over the same time window. Clearly, the capital markets viewed this restructuring of the industry as positive.     

City objectives in monopoly franchising: the case of cable television

This paper employs an approach from the labour literature to determine relative weights which cities place on alternate service proposals when selecting cable television operators. Using contract proposals for 27 franchise auctions which took place across the US between 1979 and 1981, a probit model is estimated which corrects for firm self-selection into the auctions. Cities are found to select firms with local or regional advantages, and to prefer relatively fewer unprofitable services and relatively higher basic tier prices. The results suggest that monopoly franchising may serve private interests at the average consumer's expense.     

The impact of restructuring and deregulation on gas rates

This article evaluates the impact of consumer choice programs, price caps, and sliding scale plans on consumer prices of gas using a custom survey of public service commissions and data from the Department of Energy. A seemingly unrelated regressions model estimates residential, commercial and industrial prices jointly, controlling for potentially endogenous demand. Consumer choice programs are estimated to lower residential and commercial prices significantly, by bringing competition to markets with smaller consumers. Prices fall even before deregulation as utilities build consumer loyalty and fight competition. Sliding scale plans are estimated to lower prices of small consumers while raising industrial prices. Price caps lead to overall higher prices, with unclear ranking across consumer classes.