Just looking for a good game: competitive balance in the Korean Professional Baseball League

Rottenberg’s uncertainty of outcome hypothesis is about preferences that can vary across fans and sports. We provide the first evidence of the empirical power of the hypothesis in the Korean Professional Baseball League (KPBL). In a panel data set, team-level aggregation over years shows that fans of this league attend in ways consistent with the hypothesis at the level of game uncertainty and consecutive season uncertainty, but only the first is statistically significant. KPBL fans appear to just be looking for a good game. This is consistent with the nearly complete concentration of post-season participation among a very few teams outside of the major population centre in Seoul and a lack of local team identification among KPBL fans. Our work adds to the diversity of league structures in the competitive balance literature since talent levels in KPBL are the result of parent company advertising choices rather than geographic identification. There are research questions and a policy implication.     

Competition in shared markets and Major League Baseball broadcast viewership

This work evaluates the cross-quality elasticity of related products in the context of local market Nielsen Local People Meter ratings of Major League Baseball (MLB) regular season broadcasts from 2010 through 2013 from six teams in three shared markets. We employ a fixed effects panel regression with multi-way error clustering, finding that fans exhibit nuanced behaviour related to the absolute quality and relative quality of the two local teams. Our estimates imply quality-related competition for viewership between teams in the face of large disparities in quality. However, when both teams are of high quality, viewership increased beyond what own-team success would predict alone for the competing team. The competitive effects are largely dominated by the spillover effects. These findings point to complementary effects of team success beyond own-team interest, and bring about an important nuance in the literature on market definition, competition and substitution in sport.     

BROADCASTING AND TEAM SPORTS

Television rights are the largest component of revenues for major sports in large, rich nations. Among these nations, the market structure for rights varies due to different competition policies toward sports and television. This essay examines how game coverage, revenues, and competitive balance are affected by competition in commercial television and sales of rights. It argues that consumers are better off if television is competitive and leagues do not centralize rights sales. We conclude that centralization of rights sales does not improve competitive balance or benefit financially weak teams. Finally, while digital telecommunications are making television competitive, ending centralization of sales by leagues requires policy intervention.     

WHY ARE AMERICANS ADDICTED TO BASEBALL? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF FANDOM IN KOREA AND THE UNITED STATES

Theories of rational addiction posit that certain habit-forming goods—characterized by an increasing marginal utility of consumption—generate predictable dynamic patterns of consumer behavior. It has been suggested that attendance at sporting events represents an example of such a good, as evidenced by the pricing strategies of commercial sports interests. In this essay, we provide new evidence in support of rational addiction for the case of Major League Baseball but fail to find such support in data from the Korean Professional Baseball League. We then review the scientific literature on sports fans from the perspective of human behavioral ecology and propose a theory of endogenous habit formation among sports fans that could explain our findings . ( JEL C32, D83, D87, D91, L83)     

Location and attendance in major league baseball

This study uses a travel-cost model to analyse the attendance impacts on Major League Baseball (MLB) of the closest substitute MLB team. It is found that the closer two teams are, the lower attendance is at each team relative to two teams that are farther apart. In addition, when a new team moves into the area of an existing team, there is an additional initial reduction in attendance for the incumbent team. This has implications for actions aimed at changing the number of teams in MLB either by contraction or by possible antitrust approaches that would increase the number of teams, especially in megalopolis markets. Further, and consistent with past demand studies, pricing is in the inelastic portion of gate demand and fan loyalty is a significant contributor to the estimation of gate attendance.     

ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL GAMES ON LOCAL AIR POLLUTION

Professional sporting events attract millions of fans to urban areas each year as they cheer on their favorite teams. While benefits, such as increased tax revenues and economic development, are often cited as reasons to host a professional sports franchise, the public and private costs receive much less attention. This paper uses air quality readings from the Environmental Protection Agency and Major League Baseball schedules to estimate the impact of Major League Baseball games on local air pollution. The results suggest that attendance at a Major League Baseball game has a statistically significant but negligible impact on local air pollution. (JEL Q53, R11)     

Prospective measures of competitive balance: application to money lines in major league baseball

This study examines competitive balance in Major League Baseball (MLB) by looking at the money lines for the games during the regular season. The assertion is that the closer the money lines are to indicating that each team has an equal chance of winning each game, the more competitive balance there is in the league. This study extends the model developed by Bowman et al. (2012), which used point spreads to assess competitive balance in the National Football League (NFL) and the National Basketball Association (NBA). In this study, money lines for the 1999–2011 seasons were used to develop several measures of competitive balance. The results indicate that competitive balance increased rather substantially during this period. A by-product of this research is to identify the most highly rated team and pitcher. In 2002, New York Yankees were the highest rated team and from the year 2000 Pedro Martinez was the highest rated pitcher.     

Convergence and clustering in major league baseball: the haves and have nots?

There appear to be two distinct views on the level of competitive balance within Major League Baseball. One view, mostly associated with academics, is that competition is more equal today than it ever has been. The other view, mostly associated with the media and the industry, is that competition is far worse today. The present paper, borrowing from the literature on economic convergence, finds that both views are valid. More specifically, while competitive balance has continued to improve, the improvement has been such as to create distinct convergence clusters. A discussion of the composition of these clusters is offered in the text.     

Scouts versus Stats: the impact of Moneyball on the Major League Baseball draft

Michael Lewis’ influential book Moneyball (2003) discusses several sources of inefficiency in the Major League Baseball (MLB) labour market; one of these being the failure of baseball scouts to place a draft premium on college players. We test this implication of the Moneyball thesis – the superiority of college players – by measuring the productivity of players who were drafted in the first round of five MLB drafts covering the years 1995–1999. Employing a variety of specifications, we find that the performance of college draft choices is no better than those of high school picks and argue that this is consistent with Hayek's (1944) work on the economics of information and his emphasis on the importance of localized knowledge. Additionally, we utilize data on the first three rounds of the MLB draft from 1965 to 2010 to test whether Lewis’ book had any impact on teams’ draft strategies. We find no significant structural change in the draft following the publication of Moneyball.     

All out,all the time? Evidence of dynamic effort in major league baseball

This paper presents evidence that effort varies according to players’ positions in the contract cycle using 2007 through 2011 data on Major League Baseball (MLB) non-pitchers eligible for free agency. While controlling for time-invariant player traits, fixed-effect regression modelling produces evidence that MLB players exhibit contract-year increases in adjusted on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS+) in the final years of contracts and declines in OPS+ in the initial years of long-term contracts. The estimated contract-year boost is driven disproportionately by the best offensive performances, while estimated shirking effects are concentrated among the weakest. The results are not driven by the hitting performance of defensive specialists, nor do the results change when the econometric model accounts for players who change teams. OPS+ offers advantages over some other offensive statistics (such as RBI) because it depends less on teammate performance and adjusts for differences among home ball parks and the American and National Leagues.     

REVENUE SHARING IN PROFESSIONAL SPORTS LEAGUES

We employ a model of n heterogenous profit-maximizing clubs to analyze the impact of revenue sharing in professional sports leagues on competitive balance. Revenues of each club depend on absolute quality, relative quality and on competitive balance itself so that our model captures much of the preceding literature as special cases. We show that revenue sharing always increases competitive balance if clubs differ only with respect to the impact of absolute quality on revenues. On the contrary, revenue sharing reduces competitive balance if only clubs' relative qualities play a role for revenues or if only two teams are considered.     

Competitive balance in football leagues when teams have different goals

In the standard two-team model of professional league sports it is shown that if teams have different objectives (the maximization of, respectively, wins and profits) the competitive balance conditions get worse with respect to the case when teams share the same goal. A similar, though less clear-cut, result obtains in the three-team setup. These outcomes call for policy measures to restore the balance. Three such measures are examined here: market-size-based revenue sharing, general salary cap and team-specific salary cap. It is shown that, contrary to the same-goal-for-all case, each of them may bring more intra-league competition. A ranking of the three measures is also suggested.     

The Effects of Trade Liberalization between Heterogeneous Countries on Endogenous Mergers

This paper examines the effects of trade liberalization on merger behavior. We endogenize merger choice among owners in an oligopolistic industry in asymmetric countries to analyze the consequences of trade cost reductions on competitiveness and welfare. In this context, the non‐cooperative game supports asymmetric market structures. We also find that trade liberalization is not necessarily pro‐competitive in countries with the competitive advantage, even if trade costs are completely abolished. Moreover, the tariff‐jumping explanation of international mergers does not necessarily apply. The welfare analysis shows that merger behavior can significantly alter any gains from liberalization. Countries should consider enforcing competition in regional agreements. Specifically, to avoid a reduction in domestic welfare following trade‐liberalizing reductions in trade costs, a high‐cost country's optimal policy may be to ban international mergers.     

Demand forecasting for new media services with consideration of competitive relationships using the competitive Bass model and the theory of the niche

New broadcasting services such as Internet protocol TV (IPTV) have been totally revolutionizing the broadcasting industry; thus, the prediction of the degree of diffusion of new media services is a major topic of interest for both governments and providers. This paper proposes a new approach towards demand forecasting for new services with no data and with consideration of competitive relationships with existing services. The underlying model of the proposed approach is the competitive Bass model, which is the most widely used competitive diffusion model. The competition coefficients of the model are estimated by introducing the theory of the niche. The theory of the niche, which originates from ecology, has often been used as a framework for examining competition patterns in the media industry. This study develops a new integrated measure, competitive superiority, by modifying and combining the two conventional measures of the theory of the niche, viz., niche overlap and niche superiority. The competition coefficients are then obtained by adjusting the values of competitive superiority to be incorporated in the model based on the relationship between competition and imitation effects. A case of Korean digital broadcasting services is presented to illustrate the proposed approach.     

RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS AND PRO SPORTS LEAGUES

We put a new set of shoes on that old workhorse, the competitive talent market (CTM) model in sports economics. There exist unique rational expectations equilibria for both national football league (NFL‐type leagues) and major league baseball (MLB‐type leagues) under the CTM model. A cursory statistical test fails to reject the empirical implications for the NFL‐type league. The model also suggests empirical tests of whether or not talent demand (marginal revenues from talent), including induced effects, actually slopes down. But like all models, the competitive talent model should be applied in its context. It describes highly cooperative North American sports leagues that have a wealth of common information. But it may not do the same for other leagues if they lack this common information.     

Major league baseball’s Moneyball at age 15: a re-appraisal

In the 15 years since publication of the book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game in 2003, major-league baseball (MLB) has seen the embrace of analytics by both fans and teams. Using 45 seasons of MLB data, since the introduction of the designated-hitter in the American League in 1973, the present study validates the central premise in Moneyball regarding the importance of certain performance metrics, such as on-base percentage (OBP). The terms in our empirical model are constructed such that our results permit a straightforward comparison of the relative contribution of each factor towards MLB teams’ success in winning games. We also provide evidence indicating that MLB teams have moved to align their payrolls with Moneyball analytics in the years following the book’s publication.     

Revenue Sharing,Competitive Balance and the Contest Success Function

Abstract. This paper investigates revenue sharing in an asymmetric two‐teams contest model of a sports league with Nash behavior of team owners. The innovation of the analysis is that it focuses on the role of the contest success function (CSF). In case of an inelastic talent supply, revenue sharing turns out to worsen competitive balance regardless of the shape of the CSF. For the case of an elastic talent supply, in contrast, the effect of revenue sharing on competitive balance depends on the specification of the CSF. We fully characterize the class of CSFs for which revenue sharing leaves unaltered competitive balance and identify CSFs ensuring that revenue sharing renders the contest closer.     

THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE AND THE COASE THEOREM

This paper considers the relevance of the Coase Theorem to the analysis of sports leagues. It is widely believed that there exists an ideal competitive balance between teams in a sporting contest, and that without competitive restraints to redistribute resources championships will be too unbalanced. The paper reviews the empirical evidence on this issue to date, and then examines a model where the outcome may be either too little or too much competitive balance. Empirical evidence from English football suggests that the bias is likely to be in favour of too much competitive balance. The implications for European football in general and the Champions League in particular are then discussed.     

The effects of labour strikes on consumer demand in professional sports: revisited

Previous research has concluded that the 1981 and 1994–1995 Major League Baseball (MLB) strikes have caused short-term losses in attendance but have not resulted in any long-term effects on attendance. While total attendance at MLB games following the 1994–1995 strike has recovered to its pre-strike levels, this has been done only through the construction of new stadiums at an unprecedented pace which cannot continue into the future. After accounting for stadium effects, average MLB baseball attendance has dropped significantly since the 1994–1995 strike.     

The Economics of American Sports Leagues

Player mobility in North American sports leagues is limited by labour market constraints designed ostensibly to allow teams to recoup player development costs and to maintain competitive balance within leagues. Theory holds that the distribution of talent will be invariant under any institutional configuration, and that while rules to constrain movement will serve to enhance monopsonistic exploitation of talent, they will have no effect on competitive balance. This paper reprises a general theory through which the effects of the labour market constraints can be comparatively analysed for American sports leagues. The economics of sports has been relegated to the realm of labour theory by the unnecessarily limiting assumption that owners of sports clubs are single‐minded profit maximisers. This paper also presents a theory that seeks to unify capital market decisions of financial leverage and ownership syndication with operational labour market decisions for athletic talent and an owner's desire to win.