Do input subsidy programs “crowd in” or “crowd out” commercial market development? Modeling fertilizer demand in a two‐channel marketing system

Many governments in developing countries distribute fertilizer at subsidized prices in an effort to stimulate small farmers' agricultural productivity and food security. Prior fertilizer demand studies have largely failed to account for the effects of government programs on farmers' commercial purchases. Using a double hurdle model and nationally representative rural household panel data in Zambia, we distinguish between these sources and measure the contemporaneous "crowding in" and "crowding out" effects of government input programs on commercial fertilizer sales. Where the private sector is relatively active and average wealth is higher (areas seemingly more likely to be targeted by government programs), results indicate that subsidies have substantially crowded out the private sector, in some cases to the point that such programs could actually lower overall fertilizer use. On the other hand, in poorer areas where the private sector is relatively inactive, subsidies help to generate demand and crowd in private sector retailers. Empirical studies explicitly modeling farmers' fertilizer purchase behavior within a dual marketing framework can provide important insights for agricultural policy discussions in developing countries.     

Does a “Blue Revolution” help the poor? Evidence from Bangladesh

The rapid growth in aquaculture production, globally and in Bangladesh is well documented. Over 2000–2010, per capita production of aquaculture grew 76%, while the consumer price of fish declined 45%. Previous studies have suggested pro‐poor effects of aquaculture based on fish production and consumption patterns. This study attempts to quantify the contribution of aquaculture to income growth and poverty reduction in Bangladesh, using household survey data and a microsimulation approach based on an expanded version of Deaton's concept of net benefit ratio. We estimate that aquaculture's contribution to income growth between 2000 and 2010 was 2.1%, including both price and quantity effects. This income growth was translated into poverty reduction of 1.7 percentage points. Although these estimates seem small, they represent almost 10% of the overall poverty reduction in Bangladesh during the first decade of the 21st century. Put differently, of the 18 million Bengalis who escaped poverty during 2000–2010, about 1.8 million of them managed to do so because of the rapid growth in aquaculture, which contributed to rural income while making fish more accessible to consumers.     

Is fertiliser use inconsistent with expected profit maximization in sub‐Saharan Africa? “Evidence from Nigeria”

This article revisits a conventional wisdom that inorganic fertiliser use across sub‐Saharan Africa is too low. This expectation that more farmers should be using inorganic fertiliser, and at higher rates, implies it is profitable to use rates higher than observed if farmers are rational expected profit maximisers. We obtain consistent estimates of the effects of applied nitrogen on rice production. We find the yield response to applied nitrogen to be low in the main rice growing farming system. Farmer behaviour is not inconsistent with expected profitability which is limited by a low yield response to applied fertiliser, high transportation costs, and low selling prices for rice in rural areas. In particular, we do not find any farmers for whom applied nitrogen is profitable that are not using fertiliser in the study sample for each of our survey years (2010 and 2012).     

Commodity index investment and food prices: does the “Masters Hypothesis” explain recent price spikes?

The “Masters Hypothesis” is the claim that unprecedented buying pressure in recent years from commodity index investors created massive bubbles in food and energy prices. The purpose of this article is to review the evidence from recent studies that investigate the empirical relationship between index investment and price movements in agricultural futures markets. One line of research uses time‐series regression tests, such as Granger causality tests, to investigate the relationship between price movements and index positions. This research provides little evidence in support of the Masters Hypothesis in agricultural futures markets. A second line of research uses cross‐sectional regression tests and studies in this area provide very limited evidence in favor of the Masters Hypothesis for agricultural futures markets. A third line of research investigates whether there is a significant relationship between commodity index trading and the difference, or spread, between futures prices of different contract maturities on the same date. These studies report a range of results depending on the type of test. However, the bulk of the evidence indicates either no relationship or a negative relationship, which is once again inconsistent with the Masters Hypothesis. Overall, this growing body of literature fails to find compelling evidence that buying pressure from commodity index investment in recent years caused a massive bubble in agricultural futures prices. The Masters Hypothesis is simply not a valid characterization of reality.     

思考2015 展望201

2016年的国内粮食市场将是发生大变化的一年,在生产结构的调整过程中,供大于求的矛盾将贯穿全年,库存压力仍将持续,国内粮食价格将在供求关系作用下跌,粮食收购还将面临更为巨大的挑战,由此国内粮食流通市场化改革将会得以推进。     

国审马铃薯新品种——云薯201

1．特征特性：中晚熟鲜食品种，生育期91天。株型扩散，生长势中等，株高51．4cm，分枝少，茎绿色带淡紫色，叶绿色，复叶小，花冠白色。结薯集中，块茎椭圆形，表皮光滑，芽眼深浅中等，黄皮、淡黄肉，     

“农麦201”达到国家一级良种标准

“早熟、优质、高产小麦新品种‘农麦201’区域试验与示范”是内蒙古自治区农业科学研究院承担的2003年度国家农业科技成果转化资金项目。截止目前．该单位完成“农麦201”原原种生产1．8万公斤，原种12万公斤．生产的小麦原种性状典型一致．纯度高于99．8％．籽粒发育成熟充分，饱满一致．发芽率高．     

·名词解释·

金融危机 整个社会的金融体系运转失调而引发的金融大动荡。它集中表现为全部或大部分金融指标急剧地恶化。这些恶化的金融指标主要包括短期利率、证券、房地产和土地等资产的价格。同时,企业和金融机构大量破产、倒闭。金融危机使投资者基于资产价格急剧下降的预期而大量抛售不动产或长期金融资产,兑换成货币。     

"支农"先"知农"

当前,正值春耕备耕时节,各地各级党政机关为改进干部作风,纷纷组织机关干部下乡＂支农＂,与农民兄弟同吃同住同劳动,并送钱送物送温暖。此举密切了党群、干群关系,得民心,顺民意,令人欣喜。     

201型干粉仿瓷涂料生产工艺及使用方法

２０１型干粉仿瓷涂料生产工艺及使用方法李得富本品为纯干粉型仿瓷涂料，现场用水调兑即可使用，方便长途携带和运销，节省运费。涂层极为光滑，手感舒适，侧视如镜，瓷感良好，十分耐水冲刷。生产成本低，一吨干粉涂料，可兑１倍水，得两吨膏状仿瓷涂料，能涂饰２０００...     

关于<<激光省农业自然资源综合管理条例(草案)>>的说明

分析了制定《条例》的必要性,介绍了制定《条例》的3个过程,以及需要说明的5个方面的问题。