Climate change, human genetics, and post-normality in the UK

Virtually intractable matters characterized by uncertainty over consequences, diverse and multiple engaged interests, conflicting knowledge claims, and high stakes, call for post-normal policy responses. This paper explores how two such responses have been implemented in the UK through the management of specific aspects of anthropogenic climate change and human genetics, which we argue can be described as “wicked” or post-normal issues. To address these, approaches require that a broader range of epistemic positions and worldviews be recognized as valid in the policy development process. We suggest that the concept of boundary organisations is well suited to examine some of the institutions that have been set up in the UK to deal with the two post-normal issues we consider here. This paper explores the extent to which the UK Climate Impacts Programme and the Human Genetics Commission respond to a post-normal policy approach and their achievements in overcoming epistemological boundaries and effecting integrated management responses. We conclude by considering the insights such an analysis offers into operationalising post-normal policy approaches. As intermediaries and facilitators, we suggest the two organisations can be considered forerunners in applying a post-normal approach to climate change adaptation and human genetics, respectively.     

Recent environmental research in the Netherlands: towards post-normal science?

Dutch environmental sciences have a tradition of multi- and interdisciplinarity and are developed in close interaction with Dutch environmental policy. Interdisciplinarity and policy relevance, two elements that are also prominent in the climate change scientific and policy debate, form highly important issues within the theory of post-normal science. The greater part of the Dutch climate research is organised in the National Research Programme (NRP), a research programme that explicitly focuses on delivering a contribution to the policy process. This paper uses four criteria for post-normal science (namely the management of uncertainty, the management of inter- and transdisciplinarity, the management of policy relevance and the management of quality) to detect a trend towards post-normal science. These criteria are useful for indicating long-term shifts but they do not (yet) provide measurable standards to assess scientific programmes like the NRP. The paper concludes that the NRP can not be typified as a post-normal research activity, but that it undoubtedly contains post-normal aspects. Especially the growing attention that is paid to the involvement of different stakeholders and divergent perspectives refers to a post-normal scientific practice.     

‘Climategate’ and the maturing of post-normal science

In response to the Climategate scandal, I wrote a number of essays, including a posting on an important critical blog. There I explained the affair in terms of post-normal science. First, that the scientists concerned were doing ‘normal science’, not coping with uncertainties, and then that the ‘extended peer community’ had come into power on the critical blogosphere. There was already a current of criticism of PNS, seeing it as contributing to the supposed corruption of climate science through its denial of Truth. One important essay in that tendency is reproduced here. In my reply to my critics, I argued that we are on the same side, committed to the integrity of science; and I reviewed the progression of my own ideas on climate change. In the light of the criticisms, I conclude with some searching questions about post-normal science.     

The future of the self-image of the human being in the Age of Transhumanism, Neurotechnology and Global Transition

In the present moment of cultural and political transition, one question seems to become the center of most other societal and civilizational questions: will the basic self-perception of the human being change under the influence of the new “neurotechnologies” and its accompanying ideologies like “Human enhancement” and “Transhumanism”? And if yes, how? Applied consciousness research is currently one-sidedly understood as brain research, and it is carried out mainly by the Natural Sciences under the influence of the “Economic–Technological Complex” and its relatively narrow interests. With its paradigmatic materialism determining the cultural spread of its temporary findings, it is already modifying our imaginary about what a human being is, what its rational self-determination can be, and how a “good society” can work. What is at stake with the change related to the findings of the new “consciousness technologies” is not only the principal socio-philosophical status of the human “self” or “I”, but also the related concepts of humanism, open societies, individualism and rationality. Thus, the new neurotechnologies and their “neurophilosophies” are currently in the process of profoundly influencing the very basics of our cultural self-understanding, grown over centuries. This article discusses some of the implications of this development within the greater picture of the current “global mindset change”.     

Two scenarios for Europe: “Europe confronted with high energy prices” or “Europe after oil peaking”

A significant change in trends regarding energy prices (in particular oil) has taken place in 2003 at the beginning of the Iraq War. It has revealed a very strong tension between oil prices on the one hand and the relationship between global oil supply and demand on the other. The strong growth rates of emerging economies up to 2008 have generated a very sharp increase in oil prices. The temporary economic recession of 2008-2009 has resulted in turn into a significant decrease of oil prices, down to a level which remained, however, twice as high as that of early 2003. With the economy recovering from the recession, it is highly probable that energy prices will continue to increase and that Europe will be confronted with high energy prices in the coming decades. Against this general background, two scenarios have been elaborated which differ mainly by the time of occurrence of oil peaking.¹ The differences between the scenario hypotheses are therefore differences of context in relation to exogenous factors. Policies are also considered in the scenarios, but they are not at the forefront and their impact is considered as limited in relation to that of exogenous factors.The first scenario “Europe in a context of high energy price” assumes that the process of oil peaking will not take place before 2030, but that oil price increase will nevertheless be sustained and substantial until then. Numerous adjustments will have to be made in the economy and their territorial impacts will be significant (less polycentricity, more compact cities, decline of the importance of road and air transport). The second scenario “Europe after oil production peaking” assumes that oil production will peak around the mid-2010s (followed by gas production peaking around 2025), despite significant investments to increase production. In a context of steadily growing oil and gas demand, Europe will be confronted with serious economic difficulties. The territorial impacts will be different from those suggested by the first scenario, with stronger pressure put on rural areas and a loss of attractiveness of large cities related to increasing unemployment and social tensions. In both scenarios, the countries of central and eastern Europe will be more severely hit by the new energy context.The scenarios were elaborated in 2005 and slightly reviewed in 2009 in order to take account of the impacts of the economic recession in Europe and of the growing concerns about climate change.     

Climate-change lore and its implications for climate science: Post-science deliberations?

Using of the results of survey questionnaires distributed to climate scientists who focus on the German Baltic coast, regional political decision makers on the German Baltic coast and weather observations from the same region, this paper assesses the existence of developing climate-change lore and the implications for the role of climate science in the science–policy interface. The Oxford Dictionary (1993) provides one definition of lore as ‘A doctrine, a precept; a creed, a religion.’ This is the definition adopted for this paper. The paper concludes that the discrepancies among weather observations, scientific assessments and decision makers’ perceptions suggest that climate-change lore exists, or is coming into existence. The paper then discusses the implications for the science–policy interface and suggests that given current trajectories, science could come to play a secondary role to climate-change lore in regional political decision making concerning climate change. To the truth-to-power model of the science–policy interface and the tenets of post-normal science, three additional possibly evolving science–policy configurations (as pertaining to the climate change issue) are offered.     

Post-normal science in postnormal times

Post-normal science (PNS) was a herald of postnormal times. For Functowicz and Ravetz contemporary issues in which ‘facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent’ necessitate PNS. PNS deals with the postnormal character of contemporary challenges by bringing the contextualised insights of non-scientific stakeholders to bear through the formulation of ‘extended facts’. However, while the contextual content of ‘extended facts’ caters to the indeterminate character of postnormal issues this remains in tension with an implicit assumption that outcomes reflect the quality of the ‘facts’ informing them. This paper takes the claim that postnormal times involves ‘that we abandon…ideas of ‘control and management” seriously by arguing that science should be the servant of outcomes framed in, primarily, societal terms, rather than the other way around. This argument is illustrated using the example of fashioning an effective response to climate change.     

Back to the future: The dream of a perpetuum mobile in the atomic society and the hydrogen economy

This article analyses a certain kind of society in which it is proclaimed that abundant energy can be used without any negative side effects. In such “utopias”, individual needs are described as unrestricted, and economic and technological change is said to be unlimited - as if the society were to have a perpetuum mobile at its command. The two examples connected with such expectations are “the atomic/nuclear society” and “the hydrogen economy”. Although these two utopias do differ, their many similarities are the focus of this article. They are similar in that they both invoke the dream of controlling a virtual perpetuum mobile, propose an expert/lay knowledge gap, downplay any risks involved, and rely on a public relations campaign to ensure the public’s collaboration with companies and politicians. I thus connect these two different utopias, discussing them as a part of the modern history of energy production and consumption. Making this connection clarifies some lessons for future energy planning, such as the need for reflection on and critical engagement with utopias, awareness of how a more participatory democratic process may be secured regarding energy issues, and the negative consequences if risk is described in solely economic terms.     

Beyond postnormal times: The future of creativity and the creativity of the future

Creativity and imagination are the most important ingredients for coping with post-normal times, according to Sardar. This paper looks at the way creativity itself is being transformed in the West, from the individualistic/atomistic view of Modernity towards a more contextual, collaborative, complex approach. It explores the potential and possibilities for this more participatory creativity to help go beyond the “crisis of the future,” and argues that the centrality of creativity must go beyond the mythology of genius and inspiration to inform philosophy, ethics, and action. Philosophical reflection and the imagination of desirable futures can emerge from a creative ethic that stresses the value of generative interactions and contexts that support creativity.     

Management accounting as normal social science

The publication of “Management accounting change: Approaches and perspectives” (Wickramasinghe, D., & Alawattage, C. (2007). Management accounting change: Approaches and perspectives. London, New York: Routledge) provides an occasion for considering the extent to which management accounting has become a normal social science. This review essay argues that management accounting is a social science defined by a pluralism of approaches, and it identifies the generalization of social perspectives on management accounting, and particularly their ability to transcend technical and economic aspects of accounting practice, as crucial components in reproducing this specific form of expertise. Contrary to Kuhnian expectations, this social science hosts a multiplicity of paradigms, and its scientists are not exclusively concerned with the subtlest and most esoteric aspects of the phenomena under study. Instead, as social scientists management accountants are generalists as much as they are specialists.     

Futures-thinking and identity: Why “Futures Studies” is not a field, discipline, or discourse: a response to Ziauddin Sardar's ‘the namesake’

The term we use to describe the study or research of the future or futures is indeed important, and “futures studies” is preferable, although there is considerable dispute as to who and what is involved. Even more important is the far deeper problem of defining the “we” and what “we” in fact do. Futures studies not only considers wickedly complex problems, but it is itself a wicked entity, with many puzzles and contradictions. To illustrate, a taxonomy of 12 types of futurists, first articulated in 1985, is revisited, with special emphasis on the relative handful of Synoptic Generalists, the larger category of Specialized Futurists, the still larger entity of Futurized Specialists, and the largest entity of Closet Futurists who think about futures-often in a leading-edge way-but do not identify at all with futures studies, or are seen as futurists. Most contributors to Futures and other futures journals, as well as listees in the 2000 Futurist Directory, appear to have a secondary “futurist” identity at best. The fuzzy entity of “futures studies” is thus quite unlike any field or discipline, because it is easily entered by specialists who identify with the entity weakly, while many of the most important futures-thinkers are outside the entity. Instead of denying this paradox, the reality should be acknowledged, and an alterative paradigm for “futures studies” should be seriously considered.     

Dirty work and the construction of identity. An ethnographic study of management accounting practices

This paper examines the processes by which identity work influences accounting and organisational practices. Analysing ethnographic material, we study how accountants engage in a struggle for recognition in a context where tensions emerge from the confrontation between idealised occupational aspirations and situated possibilities. To theorise this struggle we draw on Everett Hughes’s conceptualisation of a moral division of labour. Building on his concept of “dirty work”, we differentiate between the “unclean” and the “polluted”. Accountants have to perform tasks that are incompatible with the aspirational identities they claim; more than “boring”, these tasks become symbols of misrecognition. We call these unclean tasks. Yet even tasks that, in a more favourable context, would be associated with prestigious aspects of the job, can become degrading in specific situations. We call them polluted work. We highlight how trying to comply with a positively-anticipated role transition can help avoid unclean work yet generate more polluted work. Our analysis suggests that paying greater attention to symbolic differentiations between prestigious and shameful aspects of work can improve our understanding of accounting, identity work and organisational practices.     

Has science ever been normal? On the need and impossibility of a sustainability science

In this article, I develop a constructive critique of ‘post-normal science’ by challenging the underlying conception of ‘normal science’. Invoking Bruno Latour's constructivist approach, I change focus from a representationalist understanding to a practice-inspired account of science in which the composition of a matter of fact necessarily implies a politically significant differentiation between internalities and externalities. Contending that science has never been normal in that it has always already been political, I further elaborate on this political dimension by connecting Latour's concepts of matters of fact and matters of concern with Rudolf Boehm's distinction between logical and topical truth. Whereas logical truth is a measure of the validity of matters of fact, topical truth is a measure of the relevance and adequacy of scientific knowledge regarding a particular matter of concern. This allows me to argue that any attempt to install a new ‘post-normal science’ with a higher topical truth vis-à-vis sustainability issues neglects the irreducible political moment situated at the point of determining who and what we should be concerned about. Finally, I draw on the notion of ‘forms of life’ to suggest a ‘politics of the imaginable’ that takes socio-material practices as primary matters of a concern for sustainability.     

Accountants as “new guard dogs” of capitalism: Stereotype or research agenda?

Drawing inspiration from the theses of the regulation school, Gerard Hanlon analyses the socialisation process in the “big six”. For accountants are, according to him, the new “controllers” of “a process of flexible accumulation”, one that goes hand in hand with a heightened international division of labour. Unfortunately, his research site remains too limited to confirm—or disconfirm—his ambitious hypotheses. Moreover, the transposition of neo-marxist theories leads him to underestimate the whole work of construction of social credibility of accounting knowledge, as well as the complex play of interaction—and not only of opposition—between these “multinational service conglomerates” and the local or national dignitaries who continue to represent the core of the field of practice.     

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: A global scale transformative initiative

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The role of the IPCC “is to assess on a comprehensive, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.” This paper discusses the working of the IPCC and at least five ways in which the IPCC can be viewed as an amazingly successful transformative initiative. The IPCC is a model for the futures community, for it is helping not only to transform our conceptions of time and our concerns about the future, but also the conduct, organization, and use of science around the world.     

When simplicity outsmarts complexity

Although there has been a marked increase in the academic study of the “posthuman” it has had a tendency to be polarized: on the one hand, certain elements of academia are mirroring popular culture in a prophetic examination of social nihilism and unfettered technological advance, culminating in the marriage of human and computer. On the other hand, some academics treat the topic as fanciful, part of a general degradation of modern culture, which in turn, leads them to ignore and sometimes even ridicule research done in the name of the posthuman.Unfortunately - and possibly as a result of this ridicule - those who are willing to write from the former, seem to have an overarching desire to do it from a scientific realist standpoint; as if it was the only legitimate position to take. The result of this has been a number of in-depth articles on the computer dynamics necessary - and the vast scientific and technological advances needed - to achieve computational parity with human neurology. But although it follows that there would be limited desire to “upgrade” the human by plugging it into something deemed “inferior”; the scientific realist perspective has resulted in the timeframe for fundamental posthuman change being one of centuries, rather than decades.In opposing the scientific realist position I will argue - using Bostrom’s example of the human computer simulation - that from a more "sceptical" philosophical position, such a device may in fact be practically on our doorstep, rather than light-years away.     

Investigating science for governance through the lenses of complexity

This paper assesses the contributions of complexity theory to post-normal science. The oversupply of facts in science for governance is explained as a matter of complexity, defined as irreducible pluralism in the knowledge base. The paper shows how complexity provides an interface to engage with the multiple facts of science through three different examples. First, water narratives are used to show how different scales of analysis produce contradictory scientific representations of the same system. Second, smart electricity grids are assessed to demonstrate how different levels of uncertainty are associated with different representations. Third, the case of slum upgrading is used to discuss the need to take into account stakes in science for governance.     

Science in a double-bind:: Gregory Bateson and the origins of post-normal science

The work of Gregory Bateson, particularly his principles for a new kind of science which, in 1958 “had as yet no satisfactory name”, is revisited as a foundation for post-normal science and adaptive approaches to management of complex environmental problems. The addition of usefulness and relevance of results to decision-making as quality criteria in post-normal science implies inquiry into context at different levels of complexity (what Bateson refers to as deutero-learning). This in turn implies emphasis on processes that facilitate inclusion of diverse perspectives—which facilitates an understanding of relationships among different aspects of a problem; also, social learning, an adaptive approach to valuation that also inquires into the process by which values are constructed, and a reflexive approach to decision-making. Though marginalized from policy discourse, Bateson's principles provided the basis for the eventual development of a new shared understanding.     

Finance models as metaphors

Quantitative models in the social science of finance such as the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model (OPM) are metaphors. They cannot be applied literally, but do provide us with figurative knowledge—an epistemologically meaningful form that might legitimately be called a “useful framework,” as the CAPM is commonly referred to in textbooks. This paper describes the scientific value of metaphors and discusses why the OPM ought to be seen as one and what this might mean. As a result of finance research and the development of what has been called “modern finance theory,” of which the CAPM and OPM are important parts, we can certainly understand financial relationships much better, but that “understanding” is quite different from what our research methods imply that it is.